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Matt Ryan is still going to be the better QB


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#81 flaccopoe

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:28 AM

Ryan will be hard-pressed to squeak by another playoff game next season, without Gonzalez. With the deficiencies at RB, he's not going to get much relief from the running game, either...
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Honestly, I am surprised that you (Poe) got second. After the draft I thought your team was doomed for failure.

You get used to it. Even posts that don't violate the rules aren't safe.

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#82 ravensdfan

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 01:28 PM

I think Ryan and Romo can deliver in the clutch. In fact, doing the research, Romo is ranked 6th and Matt Ryan 8th in 4th quarter rating. Though Ryan's rating in the 4th is down from his overall average, it's still pretty good.

The argument can be made that many of the premier QBs in the league are in fact NOT clutch. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger all ended their seasons with an interception. That is, on their very last attempt this year, they were picked off, effectively eliminating their team. Brees had 6 4th quarter interceptions this year, most in the NFC. Eli Manning ranked 12th in 4th quarter rating. So none of the real elites prove to be that clutch this year (except Rodgers, though he never seems to have game-winning 4th quarter drives).

So of all the top QBs, I wouldn't single Ryan out. Sure, I'll laugh when Matty Ice slips up but I don't see why I'd care that much. It's not like the Falcons made a mistake for drafting him. In fact, I think we would've drafted him if we had the chance. Anyone who needed a QB would've. And they wouldn't regret it. Does that mean Joe wouldn't have been a better pick? No. But that's like if you won the lottery and said "Yeah but the jackpot wasn't as big this year."


I disagree with your determination of "clutch". You cite 4th quarter statistics, we're talking about the big games, not the big situations. Romo has proven very un-clutch in the post season. As has Ryan.
If we had drafted Ryan, I believe we would have been disappointed. Just take a look at his situation there in Atlanta. The best weapons, a defensively weak division and over half of his games (or more) every season in a dome. Sure, his regular season stats reflect this somewhat, but they are not significantly better than Flacco's really, if one takes a close look. Further, once they face a real defense, he can't get it done. Under the bright lights, he fades.
I'm not saying he isn't a good QB, he is. Just that he is NOT great. In order to be great, much like Romo, much like everyone said of Flacco, he has to prove he can get it done when it matters most.
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The first testicular guard, the "Cup" was used in hockey in 1874. The first helmet was used in 1974. That means it only took men 100 years to realize their brain was also important.


#83 hawkprey

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 02:48 PM

I disagree with your determination of "clutch". You cite 4th quarter statistics, we're talking about the big games, not the big situations. Romo has proven very un-clutch in the post season. As has Ryan.
If we had drafted Ryan, I believe we would have been disappointed. Just take a look at his situation there in Atlanta. The best weapons, a defensively weak division and over half of his games (or more) every season in a dome. Sure, his regular season stats reflect this somewhat, but they are not significantly better than Flacco's really, if one takes a close look. Further, once they face a real defense, he can't get it done. Under the bright lights, he fades.
I'm not saying he isn't a good QB, he is. Just that he is NOT great. In order to be great, much like Romo, much like everyone said of Flacco, he has to prove he can get it done when it matters most.

By bright lights, you mean the playoffs.

But while Ryan and Romo have bad records in elimination games, so do a lot of top quarterbacks. At least recently. Peyton Manning is 2-4 in the playoffs since 2008. Tom Brady is 3-4. Eli got stomped twice in two games (vs us, vs ATL) and practically eliminated his team. Roethlisberger needed to win week 17 but instead threw an INT to lose the game.

Knowing that Eli needed to win against us to make the playoffs, making it an elimination game in hindsight, the 6 "elite" quarterbacks went a combined 2-5 in elimination (playoffs or win-and-in) games. Brees didn't qualify.

Romo and Ryan combined for 1-2.

So while you could say Romo and Ryan disappear in big games, you could also say that previous Super Bowl wins are excusing current QBs from similar present failures.
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#84 admartian

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:39 PM

The author is most definitely covering up and tryng to justify his reasoning for that SB nation article.

And lol @ Brian Brohm to "Push" A-Rod!!! :D Maybe he did, and Pack fans really have to thank Brohm for Aaron's success. :P
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Win or lose, I believe.

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#85 callahan09

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 08:52 AM

He's better then Ben, Eli and Ryan. I'm talking about from a public perception standpoint. Right now someone could have a fair argument that Ryan, Eli and Ben are comparable if not better then Flacco. However if anyone publicly stated that Freeman, Romo, Vick or Rivers are better then Flacco, i drug test my soon follow from their bosses.

There is still a perception that Flacco doesn't or can't carry this team. I heard Steve Whyce after the SB say he'd still pick Ryan because the Falcons ask him to do more. People still think Flacco just throws the ball up and his WRs bails him out. That because he hasn't thrown for 4,000yds and 30+TDs, he's not a top QB. Well all that will end after next season.


If you include the post-season, Flacco threw the ball 657 times. Tony Romo in the regular season threw the ball 648 times. So that's pretty darn close to the same. So what did Flacco accomplish with his 650-ish passes, compared to what Romo accomplished with his?

Well:

Flacco: 4957 Yards, 33 TD, 10 INT
Romo: 4903 Yards, 28 TD, 19 INT

Matt Ryan in the regular season threw 615 passes, and in those passes he had 4719 Yards, 32 TD, 14 INT.

If you extrapolate those numbers to the same number of passes as Flacco's 657, you get:

5041 Yards, 34 TD, 15 INT

So he would have thrown 84 additional yards, 1 more touchdown, and 5 more INTs. I'd take Flacco's efficiency over Ryan's any down at those numbers.

Edited by callahan09, 19 February 2013 - 08:58 AM.

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#86 Ravensfan23

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:34 PM

If you include the post-season, Flacco threw the ball 657 times. Tony Romo in the regular season threw the ball 648 times. So that's pretty darn close to the same. So what did Flacco accomplish with his 650-ish passes, compared to what Romo accomplished with his?

Well:

Flacco: 4957 Yards, 33 TD, 10 INT
Romo: 4903 Yards, 28 TD, 19 INT

Matt Ryan in the regular season threw 615 passes, and in those passes he had 4719 Yards, 32 TD, 14 INT.

If you extrapolate those numbers to the same number of passes as Flacco's 657, you get:

5041 Yards, 34 TD, 15 INT

So he would have thrown 84 additional yards, 1 more touchdown, and 5 more INTs. I'd take Flacco's efficiency over Ryan's any down at those numbers.


Honestly those numbers are sewed, imo you'd have to separation Cameron Flacco from Caldwell Flacco. If you just take Flacco's numbers under Caldwell, because that's where this offense is going forward, Flacco' number are this. Not counting the Bengals game

6gms 118comp 202att 58.4% 1,703yds 15TDs 1INT 110.4QBR(not espn's)

If you strecth those numbers out over the course of 16gms Flacco's numbers look like.

16gms 314comp 538att 58.3% 4541yds 40TDs 3INTs 111.3QBR

The only poor stat is his completion percentage and even that's not a big deal. The best thing about Flacco is his yards per completion and he just doesn't throw the ball to the other team often. The scary thing about Flacco is, Caldwell really hasn't gotten his hooks into Flacco yet. We're talking about one year of QB coaching and 6 games a OC. Now they have a full offseason to grow.

There is nothing about what Flacco did in the 6 games played under Caldwell that made you think, wow that's unreal, which to me says Flacco can atleast stay consistently good with Caldwell, but I think once Caldwell fully implements his route concepts and gets to use all his weapon, I think Flacco improves.

Another thing is, Flacco completed a little over 19 balls a game. If he completes just 2 extra passes a game, maybe one less drop or throw away, he's up to 21 completions per game. Over the course of 16gms that would be 336 completions, with Flacco averaging 14.4 per completion, that would put Flacco at 4838yds.

I kno you can just post stats, especially with what ifs, so I'll just sit back and watch Flacco do his thing in 2013. I've said it a couple times before and i'll continue to say it, because it's not just Super Bowl hype, I strongly believe it, Joe Flacco will finish in the top 2 in MVP voting. Will they actually allow him to win it is another story.

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#87 callahan09

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 03:24 PM

Since 2010, against playoff teams (including regular season & post-season matches), Matt Ryan ranks 15th out of 36 in passer rating (min. 200 attempts). Flacco, on the other hand, ranks 3rd behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

The top 20:


1. Aaron Rodgers: 565/841, 6678 Yards, 50 TD, 13 INT = 104.5 QB Rating
2. Tom Brady: 560/874, 6658 Yards, 48 TD, 17 INT = 97.4 QB Rating
3. Joe Flacco: 492/808, 6142 Yards, 46 TD, 12 INT = 97.3 QB Rating
4. Drew Brees: 591/907, 6980 Yards, 55 TD, 25 INT = 97.2 QB Rating
5. Kyle Orton: 205/343, 2666 Yards, 15 TD, 4 INT = 94 QB Rating
6. Michael Vick: 191/297, 2414 Yards, 11 TD, 7 INT = 92.1 QB Rating
7. Tony Romo: 320/493, 3737 Yards, 23 TD, 15 INT = 90.6 QB Rating
8. Eli Manning: 453/750, 5501 Yards, 38 TD, 21 INT = 88.2 QB Rating
9. Matthew Stafford: 472/775, 5607 Yards, 31 TD, 16 INT = 87.7 QB Rating
10. Matt Schaub: 392/636, 4657 Yards, 24 TD, 14 INT = 87.4 QB Rating
11. Peyton Manning: 266/412, 2852 Yards, 19 TD, 13 INT = 87 QB Rating
12. Matt Hasselbeck: 370/592, 3935 Yards, 24 TD, 13 INT = 86.2 QB Rating
13. Kerry Collins: 133/231, 1494 Yards, 12 TD, 5 INT = 85.3 QB Rating
14. Tarvaris Jackson: 138/227, 1580 Yards, 8 TD, 5 INT = 84.3 QB Rating
15. Matt Ryan: 437/710, 4536 Yards, 29 TD, 16 INT = 84.2 QB Rating
16. Alex Smith: 318/516, 3429 Yards, 21 TD, 14 INT = 83.4 QB Rating
17. Carson Palmer: 415/654, 4619 Yards, 24 TD, 23 INT = 82 QB Rating
18. Josh Freeman: 424/704, 4704 Yards, 28 TD, 20 INT = 81.5 QB Rating
19. Philip Rivers: 378/619, 4450 Yards, 22 TD, 21 INT = 80.6 QB Rating
20. Ben Roethlisberger: 410/686, 4907 Yards, 24 TD, 22 INT = 80 QB Rating

Not only are Flacco's numbers much more efficient, but he also has had to do more against those good teams, as he has 808 throws versus 710 by Ryan. Almost 100 more throws.

Basically, Ryan piles up the stats against garbage teams. Flacco, for whatever reason, doesn't. Maybe that will change under Caldwell, perhaps that was a symptom of Cam Cameron... who knows, but Flacco is excellent against good teams, but hasn't always been against the lesser opponents. Personally I like the Cam excuse, and I think that trend will change next year. If Flacco can play as well as he should be able to against the lesser teams, his stats will fly off the charts, because he already plays extremely well against the best teams.

Oh, and by the way, the average QB Rating in the NFL against playoff teams from 2010-2012 was: 81.7. Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger are below average against the playoff teams in that span. Matt Ryan and Alex Smith are only slightly above. Flacco is way above average.

Oh, and here's another example of how passer rating under-rates Flacco:

2. Tom Brady: 560/874, 6658 Yards, 48 TD, 17 INT = 97.4 QB Rating
3. Joe Flacco: 492/808, 6142 Yards, 46 TD, 12 INT = 97.3 QB Rating

If you extrapolate Flacco's numbers out to 874 attempts you get:

6644 Yards, 50 TD, 13 INT.

His efficiency was on pace for 2 more TDs, 4 fewer INTs, and practically identical yards (only a difference of 14 yards), and yet Brady has a higher rating? Completion percentage be damned, if my guy is throwing the ball the same number of times, for the same number of yards, but has more TDs and fewer INTs, I take him every damn time, regardless of what their completion percentages say!

Edited by callahan09, 19 February 2013 - 03:34 PM.

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#88 AsianRice

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 03:35 PM

By bright lights, you mean the playoffs.

But while Ryan and Romo have bad records in elimination games, so do a lot of top quarterbacks. At least recently. Peyton Manning is 2-4 in the playoffs since 2008. Tom Brady is 3-4. Eli got stomped twice in two games (vs us, vs ATL) and practically eliminated his team. Roethlisberger needed to win week 17 but instead threw an INT to lose the game.

Knowing that Eli needed to win against us to make the playoffs, making it an elimination game in hindsight, the 6 "elite" quarterbacks went a combined 2-5 in elimination (playoffs or win-and-in) games. Brees didn't qualify.

Romo and Ryan combined for 1-2.

So while you could say Romo and Ryan disappear in big games, you could also say that previous Super Bowl wins are excusing current QBs from similar present failures.

That's what I love about football, the unpredictability......


PS: after watching Joe Montana's tribute couple das ago, I got a feeling Joe will be the next Montana; it's like a dream but I feel it...
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