What should we expect fom Joe Flacco? Advantages: The week off, in a dome, and great in the playoffs

[callahan09]

Let's look at how Flacco has played since his rookie year in context of these splits. I am excluding his rookie season because it doesn't seem like we get a fair representation of the splits if we include his rookie season.

Flacco played in no dome games during his rookie year, so there's a good reason for us to leave out the rookie stats.

Flacco's rookie season "games with extra time to prepare" were the very 1st and 2nd games of his career, so it isn't too helpful to compare numbers as the greenest of rookies in his first ever starts to what he is really capable of.

And finally, his rookie playoff numbers aren't relevant to how he can really play in the playoffs. He was only the 8th rookie to ever start a playoff game, and the first (and still only one of two) to start THREE playoff games as a rookie. To put it simply, rookie playoff numbers don't mean much when you look at all-time playoff numbers, because so few of the playoff numbers we can look at for all players in NFL history actually involve rookies.

So given all of those factors, I think it's appropriate to leave out his rookie season. Now, on to the numbers:

[U]Joe Flacco (Excluding Rookie Season: 2009-2012)[/U]

[B]73 Games (ALL) [39 On The Road = 53.4%][/B]
1402/2326, 16610 Yards, 103 TD, 49 INT
60.3%, 7.14 Y/A, 228 Y/G, 88.0 QB Rating

Now, let's analyze the splits. First, I'll present the splits for situations that mirror what he'll be dealing with in the Super Bowl; The Super Bowl will meet all 3 of the following criteria: It is a "game with extra time to prepare", a "dome game", and a "post-season game":

[B]9 Games With Extra Time To Prepare (Season Openers + After Bye) [2 On The Road = 22.2%][/B]
173/275, 2153 Yards, 14 TD, 3 INT
62.9%, 7.83 Y/A, 239 Y/G, 99.6 QB Rating

[B]4 Dome Games [4 On The Road = 100%][/B]
99/158, 1224 Yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
62.7%, 7.75 Y/A, 306 Y/G, 105.0 QB Rating

[B]9 Post-Season Games [7 On The Road = 77.8%][/B]
152/265, 1948 Yards, 15 TD, 5 INT
57.4%, 7.35 Y/A, 216 Y/G, 91.5 QB Rating

One of these 22 games is an overlap, the 2011 Divisional Play-Off Game vs Houston was both a "post-season game" and a "game with extra time to prepare", so we only count the stats from that game once in the combined average; all of the other games only qualified under one of the three splits. That's why we see 21 individual games worth of stats in the combined average below:

[B]21 Individual Games [13 On The Road = 61.9%][/B]
410/671, 5149 Yards, 37 TD, 9 INT
61.1%, 7.67 Y/A, 245 Y/G, [I]97.8 QB Rating[/I]

Now, let's analyze the opposite splits.

[B]64 Games Without Extra Time To Prepare [37 On The Road = 57.8%][/B]
1229/2051, 14457 Yards, 89 TD, 46 INT
59.9%, 7.05 Y/A, 226 Y/G, 86.5 QB Rating

[B]69 Outdoor Games [35 On The Road = 50.7%][/B]
1303/2168, 15386 Yards, 93 TD, 48 INT
60.1%, 7.10 Y/A, 223 Y/G, 86.8 QB Rating

[B]64 Regular Season Games [32 On The Road = 50%][/B]
1250/2061, 14662 Yards, 88 TD, 44 INT
60.7%, 7.11 Y/A, 229 Y/G, 87.6 QB Rating

Obviously there are many more overlap games in these sets, for instance all of the "post-season games" are also "outdoor games" and all but one of them is also a "game with extra time to prepare." But also, there is some overlap with some of the games from the first set of splits; for instance, of those 64 "regular season games", 4 of them were "dome games". So, of these 197 games, 52 of them were unique individual games where NONE of the original 3 split criteria applied (these are all games where there was NOT extra time to prepare, it was in the regular season, AND it was outdoors):

[B]52 Individual Games [26 On The Road = 50%][/B]
992/1655, 11461 Yards, 66 TD, 40 INT
59.9%, 6.93 Y/A, 220 Y/G, [I]84.1 QB Rating[/I]

And now let's introduce one more stat split that will be relevant to this whole study.

[B]34 Home Games[/B]
657/1056, 8484 Yards, 54 TD, 17 INT
62.2%, 8.03 Y/A, 250 Y/G, 97.7 QB Rating

[B]39 Road Games[/B]
745/1270, 8126 Yards, 49 TD, 32 INT
58.7%, 6.40 Y/A, 208 Y/G, 80.0 QB Rating

[U]Analysis[/U]

Let's compare Flacco's QB Rating for each split:

Games With Extra Time To Prepare vs Normal Time: 99.6 > 86.5
Games Played In Dome vs Outdoors: 105.0 > 86.8
Games Played In Post-Season vs Regular Season: 91.5 > 87.6

As you can see, he is better in all cases when given extra time to prepare, in domes, and in the post-season.

Putting it all together:

When Flacco has extra time to prepare, plays in a dome, or is playing in the post-season, his QB Rating is much better than when he plays without extra time, outdoors in the regular season.

97.8 > 84.1

What makes this all the more impressive is that the 21 games representing that 97.8 QB Rating came 61.9% ON THE ROAD, while the 52 games representing that 84.1 QB Rating came exactly 50% on the road.

This is important, because as I demonstrated earlier, Flacco *usually* plays much worse on the Road to the tune of a 97.7 average at home vs an 80.0 on the road. Except that in these kind of games, he performs at much higher rate than otherwise, despite being more often on the road.

My conclusion is that Flacco is given a serious advantage by having this extra time to prepare, playing the Super Bowl in a dome, and given his nature as a very high performing play-off quarterback who steps up in big games. You've got all three factors in one game. This could be huge!

But of course, past stats aren't everything, and these stats are all with complete disregard for the defenses he was playing against in each situation, so we'll just have to wait and see as usual, but I have pretty high hopes for what we'll see from him on February 3.

Oh, and for what it's worth, I thought it might also be worth looking at games with extra time to prepare where the *other* team also had extra time to prepare:

119/193, 1382 Yards, 9 TD, 2 INT
61.7%, 7.16 Y/A, 230 Y/G, 94.5 QB Rating

That's 6 games. All 5 season openers, plus the 2009 game following the bye week against the Broncos was also their first game after their bye week.

Ravens won all 6 games.

Obviously everybody going into the 5 season opener games was 0-0 at the time. The Broncos were 6-0 at the time following the bye week, we gave them their first loss of the season.

[VA_Fan]

I expect a very boring first quarter by the Offense. Seems what they like to is run some different formations in the beginning to see how their defense covers it then come back later to take advantage of their weaknesses. It's been frustrating at times but it seems to be working in our favor.

[Joe5Flacco]

Joe's rookie year we beat Dallas to close out Texas stadium, in a dome. Remember the win with those 2 long td runs? (Willis/Leron)
17-29, 149yds, 1td(to mason in the corner of the endzone if I remember correctly)

[callahan09]

[quote name='Joe5Flacco' timestamp='1359041577' post='1328869']
Joe's rookie year we beat Dallas to close out Texas stadium, in a dome. Remember the win with those 2 long td runs? (Willis/Leron)
17-29, 149yds, 1td(to mason in the corner of the endzone if I remember correctly)
[/quote]

Thanks for sharing that. I still stand by my decision not to include his rookie season, because the four most recent seasons are a lot more relevant than whatever he was doing his rookie season, and also because the NFL doesn't consider that to be an indoor stadium due to the roof not covering the field. It isn't temperature controlled and it doesn't keep the elements out, but it does help to reduce winds. The NFL says Flacco has played in 4 dome games, the 4 I quoted above, so I stuck with that.

[Militant X 1]

Flacco comes out and puts the 49ers on ice early!!! it will be the "Air Joe Show" for sure!

go Ravens!

~Mili

[Joe5Flacco]

I don't mean to cut up your post, so correct me if I'm wrong but you said Flacco has throw 1 interception in his last 4 dome games, yet he threw 2 in reliant stadium this year

[hawkprey]

His numbers in domes are probably just a coincidence. Maybe he plays a little better in a dome, but Joe's numbers always plummet due to a few bad games a year, and with a sample size of 4, the odds are that he can but just hasn't had one of "those games" in a dome yet.

His numbers in the playoffs are like averaging between "Cam" and "post Cam" games.

But his numbers off of bye weeks/extra time don't seem like a coincidence to me. To me, these games are the result of actual game-planning. As we all know, Cam didn't like changing what we do much, and he didn't like outside opinions. Hence we never had much of a game plan. But it seems like that changes when we have an extra week off or it's the 1st game of the season. That includes reports that Caldwell influenced the week 1 game this year, and Joe had input in the week 1 game last year.

Under Caldwell, we've had all "gameplanning" types of games.

[callahan09]

[quote name='Joe5Flacco' timestamp='1359077683' post='1329685']
I don't mean to cut up your post, so correct me if I'm wrong but you said Flacco has throw 1 interception in his last 4 dome games, yet he threw 2 in reliant stadium this year
[/quote]

I was just operating off of ESPNs distinction of indoor vs outdoor games. They considered that game outdoor, maybe because the roof was open?

[flynismo]

This offense, and Joe in particular, is on fire. We are facing a defense that is very similar to the PIT defenses of the last few years -- a dominant front seven, but can be spread out and thrown on.

I expect some rough spots, and we will struggle to move the chains early on. But I think we will ultimately see a repeat of last week, adjustments will be made and our passing game will pull us through.

[runamuk]

I agree about adjustments but I don't agree with waiting til the second half for them I say we do it as soon as possible.

[Hardbaugh]

Thanks for the legwork Callahan! Question, did you post Flacco's stats since Caldwells been at the helm?


I don't think anyone will confuse me for a Flacco apologist but Joe deserves some leeway for his 2009 playoff performances because he was injured in the Pittsburgh game and/or Oakland game. They say his whole one side was really in bad shape. Most quarterbacks would have probably been on the sideline.

[cursona pirate]

We can look at statistics but honestly Flacco is on some sort of groove right now. I don't know if you can predict anything right now, he has been playing lights out. Also we have Jim Caldwell. No Cam! So those stats can't be looked at to seriously.

[1/28/01]

[quote name='Hardbaugh' timestamp='1359122200' post='1330087']
Thanks for the legwork Callahan! Question, did you post Flacco's stats since Caldwells been at the helm?


I don't think anyone will confuse me for a Flacco apologist but Joe deserves some leeway for his 2009 playoff performances because he was injured in the Pittsburgh game and/or Oakland game. They say his whole one side was really in bad shape. Most quarterbacks would have probably been on the sideline.
[/quote]

Who the hell is this????

[callahan09]

[quote name='Hardbaugh' timestamp='1359122200' post='1330087']
Thanks for the legwork Callahan! Question, did you post Flacco's stats since Caldwells been at the helm?


I don't think anyone will confuse me for a Flacco apologist but Joe deserves some leeway for his 2009 playoff performances because he was injured in the Pittsburgh game and/or Oakland game. They say his whole one side was really in bad shape. Most quarterbacks would have probably been on the sideline.
[/quote]

Thanks. I know I've posted his stats since Caldwell in a previous thread, but I'm not sure when or where, so I can post them again right here right now:

100/177, 1450 Yards, 12 TD, 1 INT --> 103.5 QB Rating

[Gordo52]

[quote name='callahan09' timestamp='1359131136' post='1330247']
Thanks. I know I've posted his stats since Caldwell in a previous thread, but I'm not sure when or where, so I can post them again right here right now:

100/177, 1450 Yards, 12 TD, 1 INT --> 103.5 QB Rating
[/quote]
Beautiful!

[Free Agent]

[quote name='callahan09' timestamp='1359131136' post='1330247']
Thanks. I know I've posted his stats since Caldwell in a previous thread, but I'm not sure when or where, so I can post them again right here right now:

100/177, 1450 Yards, 12 TD, 1 INT --> 103.5 QB Rating
[/quote]

Now that's money.

[Guest llwillow1231]

I never did understand why playing in a dome was different ? I can understand if you played in a dome all the time then had to play outside (like peyton) and you don't perform well . But in Joe's case i would think in a climate controlled environment, no wind no freezing temps. fake grass it would make for a better playing experience.

[UD Ravens Fan]

Hello there, message from UD where Joe cut his teeth. Joe had one of his most amazing games in a dome at Northern Iowa (a la Kurt Warner) when he carried his team through a FCS (1AA) playoff game in 2007. Joe can throw the deep ball with amazing accuracy in the dome. Post Season , Dome = Great game for Joe

[1/28/01]

Used to playing in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York and New England = advantage Ravens!

[ellicottraven]

There are two certainties about Joe Flacco that lend to him playing awesome football!

1. He has to be under pressure to perform (which he is - on a mission of self confidence to earn his contract)
2. He has to get into a rhythm early and be allowed to play ball like he wants to.

If these two things happen, he is near impossible to beat!

[Ravenseconbeast]

Considering each team has 2 week to prepare. I can only assume if one scheme doesnt work vs. our offense, ethn they are going to have another scheme ready.

I think Flacco need to spread the ball like he has vs. all post season opponents. Keep them guessing and have them spread their D' around so flacco can attack their weak 1-on- match up. If our offense can stay in field and exhuast their d', I see our team winning.

[jimmypowder]

I think playing in a dome is to Joe's advantage .

If you look at some if the passes thrown deep at New England , the wind was
altering their trajectory . This won't happen in a dome clearly .

[Ravensfan23]

I've heard that the SuperDome makes it tough on WRs tracking the ball. I don't know if it's the roof, lighting or what, but with Joe's high arching deep ball, it could be tough early on for his WRs to track it.

However, i don't think Joe will have any trouble in the Dome. The 49ers D will be tough, because he has so many weapons and ways to beat a defense, I think the Legend of Smoking Joe will be born. 310yds 4TDs and SB MVP is what i see from Joe. As someone else said, the wind forced a few misses from Joe in that game. This shouldn't happen in this game.

[callahan09]

[b][u]Flacco Or Kaepernick: Who Do You Want?[/u][/b]

Don't shoot the messenger, just posting the exact headline title of the link to the article on the main page of NFL.com this morning.

[url="http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000132119/article/colin-kaepernick-over-joe-flacco-analysts-bullish-on-49ers-qb"]http://www.nfl.com/n...ish-on-49ers-qb[/url]

The result? Out of 7 commentators (Jeff Darlington, Steve Wyche, Daniel Jeremiah, Brian Billick, Jason Smith, Elliot Harrison, and Adam Rank), ALL 7 pick Kaepernick.

[msufan]

Flacco because I know what he can do yr in and yr out. The one yr wonder is looking great right now but he has to do it for multiple yrs.

[FreckleNate]

I expect to see a lot on the ground game in the beginning to attempt to bring in there deep men, then to let Flacco loose with his deep ball game. And start racking in the long touchdowns with Smith and Boldin. And beat them up with Pitta in the middle. Everyone talks the D up huge but I really like our chance against them.

[flaccopoe]

In Air Flacco, I trust. If it comes down to the final minute and BAL's down 4-8, I fully expect Flacco to throw a bomb for the win/tie!

[PolishRifle]

Advantage Flacco.

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0129/play_e_flacco01jr_200.jpg[/img]

[gabefergy]

It's funny how biased the NFL network is. At least ESPN has a lot of media members giving the Ravens respect.

[Midnight toker]

[quote name='msufan' timestamp='1359471524' post='1333975']
Flacco because I know what he can do yr in and yr out. The one yr wonder is looking great right now but he has to do it for multiple yrs.
[/quote]

They both have the exact same amount of super bowl experience. What they do next year and beyond means little with regard to what happens sunday. It'll be epic!