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The bye week advantage


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#1 callahan09

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 08:33 PM

In Baltimore's Harbaugh era, the Ravens have been very good when given extra time to prepare. Since 2008, the Ravens are 11-0 in season openers and after a bye week (including Wild Card playoff bye), outscoring opponents 302-132. That's a +170 point differential. We score an average of 27.5 points per game, and give up an average of 12 points per game, winning by an average of 15.5 points per game. Outside of those 11 games, the Ravens have averaged 23.2 points per game, allowing 18 points per game, winning by an average of 5.2 points per game. That marks an improvement of 4.3 points per game scored, and 6 fewer points per game allowed, and +10.3 points per game differential.

In San Francisco's Harbaugh era, they have also been pretty good when given extra time to prepare. Since 2011, the 49ers are 5-0-1 in season openers and after a bye week, outscoring opponents 188-136. That's a +52 point differential. They score an average of 31.3 points per game, and give up an average of 22.7 points per game, winning by an average of 8.6 points per game. Outside of those 6 games, the 49ers have averaged 23.8 points per game, allowing 15.8 points per game, winning by an average of 8 points per game. That marks an improvement of 8.6 points per game scored, but 6.9 more points per game allowed, and -0.6 points per game differential.

While both teams are very good, I think the Ravens have the bigger advantage here, for two reasons: Almost double the sample size, so more consistency over time, and the Ravens offense improves about equally to how the 49ers offense improves, but the Ravens defense also improves immensely, while the 49ers defense actually gets quite a bit worse. Seeing that the Ravens, after 11 such games, win by over 10 points better of a margin than they usually do, while the 49ers in 6 such games win by a smaller margin than they normally do, really makes me see this as a positive for the Ravens.

Summary:

John's average points differential with extra time to prepare is *much* better than Jim's: +15.5 vs +8.6. Also, while Jim is technically "undefeated", he does have that TIE on his record, so John's 11-0 represents the better record and more consistency over a longer period of time.

The greatest thing to note for me is that both offenses improve about the same. But while our defense also improves greatly, their defense actually gets worse.

I attribute this perhaps to the fact that John's past experience is as a special teams coordinator, which means he is well-rounded on both offensive & defensive sides of the ball. Jim is more of a purely offensive minded coach, and all of his experience is offense-related. I gather that this is why our improvements following a bye are more well-rounded, while Jim's tend to tilt things in favor of the offense to the detriment of the defense.

All in all, I say this has to favor us in this match-up.
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#2 SecretAgentMan

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 08:54 PM

Training Time!
We need this the next two weeks

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#3 admartian

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 08:55 PM

Cold it also work against us though? Momentum-wise I mean.
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#4 Hjulmann

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 08:56 PM

I don't care about past statistics tbh. I'm not bringing down your analysis, but both teams are going to give it all they have, and ultimately, it's coming down to which teams is best prepared. I just hope the Ravens work their butts off, study and do ALL of their homework for this Super bowl. Let's get it.
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#5 Ragin'Raven

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 08:57 PM

I take it the practice schedule and everything will be the same Super Bowl Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday? The only difference being Media Day Tuesday, which is normally the players' off day anyways? It sounds like it's business as usual when they get down there, if you can call being the center of the sports world for seven days usual. ;)
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#6 hawkprey

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 08:58 PM

Divisional week: "The Ravens D is going to be too tired to keep up after last week's game".
Championship week: "NOW the Ravens D is going to be too tired to keep up after last week's game".

Super Bowl week: "The Ravens D is going to play at an even higher level because they've had ample time to rest." "I don't know, they just suck somehow."
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#7 dhstandard

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:03 PM

The defense improvement is probably because of the vets we usually have on defense. It is much younger now than it has been over the years, but clearly the defense steps up after a week of rest. Giving Ngata and Suggs that rest is crucial and 2 weeks to figure out the 49ers read offense is helpful.
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#8 BALTIMOREFLACCO

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:50 PM

Divisional week: "The Ravens D is going to be too tired to keep up after last week's game".
Championship week: "NOW the Ravens D is going to be too tired to keep up after last week's game".

Super Bowl week: "The Ravens D is going to play at an even higher level because they've had ample time to rest." "I don't know, they just suck somehow."


this made me laugh
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