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callahan09

Is Completion Percentage Considered Too Strongly In Passer Rating Formula (Related to Flacco's stats)

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I was curious what Flacco's post-season stats look like since last year, because he has played great in every post-season game since 2011. Well here's what we have:

87/156, 1335 Yards, 12 TD, 1 INT --> 107.2 QB Rating in 5 games

Very impressive. But here's what I didn't like seeing... this is only second best in that span, behind Drew Brees, who has the following stats:

73/107, 928 Yards, 7 TD, 2 INT --> 109.1 QB Rating in 2 games.

Why do I have a problem with this? Take a look at some comparisons between them:

[u]Yards Per Attempt[/u]
Flacco: 8.56
Brees: 8.67

[u]Passes Per TD[/u]
Flacco: 13
Brees: 15.3

[u]Passes Per INT[/u]
Flacco: 156
Brees: 53.5

When I look at these stats, it's obvious to me who is better. You've got a +11 touchdown to interception ratio, versus +5. You've got more efficiency in terms of touchdown% and interception%. You've got almost identical yards per attempt. I know I'd rather have Flacco's performance here instead of Brees'. But because of about a 10% difference in completion percentage, Brees' QB Rating is higher? I just think the importance of completion percentage is a bit inflated here.
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Flacco's completion percentage is the only problem I have with him, make all the arguments you want nobody likes 3 and outs.
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Won't Joe's completion percentage be lower due to all the deep shots the Ravens take?

I know Joe led the league in completion's over 20 yards but generally that will lower your completion percentage accordingly.
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I actually think TDs are overvalued in the formula. It's a super-glorified completion. From what I've seen, there are plenty of pathetically easy TD passes out there and they should hardly count for more than an interception. TDs are worth a lot in terms of winning games, but they're not necessarily as impressive for a QB to pull out as the credit they're given.

Say you're at your 3 yard line twice: throwing 1 TD and 1 INT counts more than handing off twice and going 0 for 0. 7 points is worth more than 2 field goals. So that's probably why TDs count for more than interceptions. But by throwing a pick, you take away the possibility that your RB scores himself. So it's really not as good.
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[quote name='BloodRaven' timestamp='1358783216' post='1323971']
Flacco's completion percentage is the only problem I have with him, make all the arguments you want nobody likes 3 and outs.
[/quote]


I said this after the Broncos game. Some of it is dropped passes, some is getting into rhythm, some just cause he throws deep. People thought iwas trying to make something out of nothing but higher completion rate means you're usually keeping drives alive. Longer drives means better clock management and more rest for the defense. Also, more chances to hit a big play while opening up the running game.
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[quote name='redrum52' timestamp='1358792911' post='1324269']
I said this after the Broncos game. Some of it is dropped passes, some is getting into rhythm, some just cause he throws deep. People thought iwas trying to make something out of nothing but higher completion rate means you're usually keeping drives alive. Longer drives means better clock management and more rest for the defense. Also, more chances to hit a big play while opening up the running game.
[/quote]

We got destroyed in the field position battle today, AND we had a problem with Flacco once again not completing 60% of his passes. But we stilled managed to sustain drives in the air in the second half and get into the end zone. His completion percentage is just a symptom of the game plans we employ, it doesn't mean that can't drive the field because when we do get a completion, it's usually good for a first down, so the low completion percentage doesn't really effect us negatively.
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I think completion percentage might be the most important stat, next to the TD to INT ratio. Completion percentage and yards per attempt are two vastly underrated stats.

Yesterday, his rating was killed in the first half, but improved greatly in the second. I think Joe was 1/8 at one point, which is terrible. Once our receivers got off their collective [profanity deleted] and got open, Joe started to get a better completion percentage.
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[quote name='The Raven' timestamp='1358793451' post='1324292']
I think completion percentage might be the most important stat, next to the TD to INT ratio. Completion percentage and yards per attempt are two vastly underrated stats.

Yesterday, his rating was killed in the first half, but improved greatly in the second. I think Joe was 1/8 at one point, which is terrible. Once our receivers got off their collective [profanity deleted] and got open, Joe started to get a better completion percentage.
[/quote]

I know he started 1/6 and after that went 20/30, so that was a slow start, big improvement in the end. It wasn't Joe's fault he went 1/6, though, as 3 of those 5 incompletions should have been caught, so he pretty much played at an above-60% accuracy throughout the game, just with a couple of early drops to bring him slightly under 60% overall for the game.
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[quote name='callahan09' timestamp='1358794331' post='1324321']
I know he started 1/6 and after that went 20/30, so that was a slow start, big improvement in the end. It wasn't Joe's fault he went 1/6, though, as 3 of those 5 incompletions should have been caught, so he pretty much played at an above-60% accuracy throughout the game, just with a couple of early drops to bring him slightly under 60% overall for the game.
[/quote]

Those drops hurt a lot! Don't forget about our receivers getting mugged for the duration of the first half. They couldn't get off the press to save their life. They didn't get separation. When they did get separation, they got held. They played a great second half though.
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[quote name='The Raven' timestamp='1358794485' post='1324324']
Those drops hurt a lot! Don't forget about our receivers getting mugged for the duration of the first half. They couldn't get off the press to save their life. They didn't get separation. When they did get separation, they got held. They played a great second half though.
[/quote]

The great thing is that our defenders haven't been holding a lot lately, they haven't been making illegal contact with receivers, and yet they're still doing pretty well against great quarterbacks. The Patriots defenders were mugging us all game long with no flags thrown. The 49ers defenders were holding and mugging the Falcons like crazy in the second half, and no flags whatsoever. The ref who is doing the Super Bowl is supposed to be one of the hardest in the league, calling holding and illegal contact at among the highest rate of all refs. I think that bodes well for us, because we can play without doing that, but I don't believe our opponent can. They should be flagged a lot.
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[quote name='callahan09' timestamp='1358796188' post='1324385']
The great thing is that our defenders haven't been holding a lot lately, they haven't been making illegal contact with receivers, and yet they're still doing pretty well against great quarterbacks. The Patriots defenders were mugging us all game long with no flags thrown. The 49ers defenders were holding and mugging the Falcons like crazy in the second half, and no flags whatsoever. The ref who is doing the Super Bowl is supposed to be one of the hardest in the league, calling holding and illegal contact at among the highest rate of all refs. I think that bodes well for us, because we can play without doing that, but I don't believe our opponent can. They should be flagged a lot.
[/quote]

If that is true, officiating might actually be in our favor for once.
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It helps when you are slinging it some on first and second down as well. When all of your passes are on third and long it is not easy to have a high completion percentage.
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[quote name='The Raven' timestamp='1358794485' post='1324324']
Those drops hurt a lot! Don't forget about our receivers getting mugged for the duration of the first half. They couldn't get off the press to save their life. They didn't get separation. When they did get separation, they got held. They played a great second half though.
[/quote]

It was because we took a very safe and predictable approach in the first half with the run run pass with the passes usually being sideline throws.. makes a DB's life much easier and our receivers' life much harder. The Patriots defender said as much that their approach didn't change but ours did when we adjusted by using the no huddle and 3 receiver sets in the second half.
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In the end it doesn't matter - lost in Eli Manning's two Superbowl runs was that in both NFC Championship games and his first win in 07-08, he didn't complete 60 percent of his passes either. I'm perfectly fine with Joe being in the mid to high 50s if he's taking a lot of shots down field, making big plays, and most importantly, not turning the ball over. It's one thing when you're not completing things AND you're fumbling and throwing picks, but if you're completing 10 percent less than the other guy but your passes are averaging 5-10 yards longer, who's moving the ball more?
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Yes and no.

"Yes" because it is probably the best aggregate for accuracy that we have.

"No" because it doesn't account for the type of offense the QB runs/performs under. Deep ball offenses like ours and San Diego etc can be misleading. And so can dinky dunk offenses like the Pats.
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I was happy when Flacco threw the ball away when he didn't see anything and decide to play another down. That's a sign of maturity and discipline for a QB that you can't force every play.
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