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Lightlock

Vegas slowly gives in to the Ravens

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Right after the Pats won their game over the Texans, the odds were in favor of a Pats victory over the Ravens by 10 points. It looks like every day since then, however, the odds have shifted about half a point per day towards the Ravens, more or less. Currently most places seem to have the Pats as 7.5 point favorites, and probably on game day it'll be an even 7 point favor. The more people look at the Ravens, the more they believe. :229031_cheer:
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I have always hated the spread, regardless of the game and teams involved. I've never put money down on a game and never will, way too many variables for me to say "here take my money."

That said, let's go Ravens!
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The spread is more not about which team who the odds makers think will win. It is a way for them to influence the way people bet.
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I think it's as much to do with the amount of money that was being put on the Ravens, considering quality teams should never be a double digit underdog. In all likelihood this game will be decided by a Touchdown or less, so getting the Ravens at +10 would have been ridiculously popular for betters.
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[quote name='jaege' timestamp='1358611859' post='1317442']
The spread is more not about which team who the odds makers think will win. It is a way for them to influence the way people bet.
[/quote]

No... the "spread" is the betting line. The PUBLIC controls the line, how the public bets controls the line. Basically , most people set their money on the Pats so that's why the line is the way it is. Vegas can stand to make a TON of money if the Ravens cover! That's why the line is the way it is.
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[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1358647726' post='1317989']
No... the "spread" is the betting line. The PUBLIC controls the line, how the public bets controls the line. Basically , most people set their money on the Pats so that's why the line is the way it is. Vegas can stand to make a TON of money if the Ravens cover! That's why the line is the way it is.
[/quote]
Yep. It's not about who the bookies think will win but how they can maximise profit (surprise surprise).

If you work in a chance-based industry, you want to reduce the risk involved, which means getting the public to bet even amounts of money on both options. Think about how you'd want that to happen: if everyone in the world bets on the Patriots and the Patriots win by 15, you're shot because you have to pay everyone and you're not receiving any cash injection.

What a good bookie will do is place the line so they get half of the money placed on the Ravens and the other half on the Patriots. Since the odds are designed for a gambler to risk $11 to make $10 you're guaranteed to profit if you can achieve that balance. When I'm not betting, I love looking at the line because it's a good, honest indicator of what the public thinks will happen.

Super Bowl III is a famous example of what I mean. For those not in the know, the Baltimore Colts had belted their opponents in the NFC title game and everyone thought they'd do the same thing to the New York Jets. The bookies gave the Colts a 13.5-point head start and they promptly lost. Some journalists tried to get really smug and laugh at the guy who set the odds because they thought he'd called the game terribly (you set the line at 13.5 and the favourites lose? Come on, man!). The guy actually said it was the best line he'd ever made because the public had put the same amount of money on both sides.

As for me, I think the public's overrated the Patriots so I've leapt on us to cover.
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[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1358647726' post='1317989']
No... the "spread" is the betting line. The PUBLIC controls the line, how the public bets controls the line. Basically , most people set their money on the Pats so that's why the line is the way it is. Vegas can stand to make a TON of money if the Ravens cover! That's why the line is the way it is.
[/quote]

Not really true. Vegas oddsmakers set the odds. They try to incite bets not determine who is going to win.
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[quote name='dhstandard' timestamp='1358664146' post='1318165']


Not really true. Vegas oddsmakers set the odds. They try to incite bets not determine who is going to win.
[/quote]

odds and betting line... 2 different things
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[quote name='Lightlock' timestamp='1358602634' post='1317378']
Right after the Pats won their game over the Texans, the odds were in favor of a Pats victory over the Ravens by 10 points. It looks like every day since then, however, the odds have shifted about half a point per day towards the Ravens, more or less. Currently most places seem to have the Pats as 7.5 point favorites, and probably on game day it'll be an even 7 point favor. The more people look at the Ravens, the more they believe. :229031_cheer:
[/quote]

I took the bet when it was 8 1/2 point spread and i took it heads up, i need the RAVENS to win. Pay out will make my yr.
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[quote name='Clutch Ravens' timestamp='1358611983' post='1317444']
I think it's as much to do with the amount of money that was being put on the Ravens, considering quality teams should never be a double digit underdog. In all likelihood this game will be decided by a Touchdown or less, so getting the Ravens at +10 would have been ridiculously popular for betters.
[/quote]

But when you take the bet heads up with the point spread that high, the payout is unreal. Never bet on a Football game until this one. I wanted to bet on the DENVER game.

If we win and i didn't bet on this game, i would have been kicking myself for the rest of the yr.


RAVENS Please, please Win.
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[quote name='PeRK82' timestamp='1358701909' post='1318414']
I took the bet when it was 8 1/2 point spread and i took it heads up, i need the RAVENS to win. Pay out will make my yr.
[/quote]

Im a noob when it comes to this. Could you explain this a bit? If someone put up $1000 heads up, and won, what would they get paid?
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I have never bet on sports, until 3 weeks ago when I went up to Delaware and got in on the Ravens at 15:1 to win the Superbowl. Can you feel my payday coming? LOL, big spender that I am, I plunked down $20, which could win me $320 back.
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[quote name='Baltimorefan410' timestamp='1358702346' post='1318422']
Im a noob when it comes to this. Could you explain this a bit? If someone put up $1000 heads up, and won, what would they get paid?
[/quote]

If you take a straight up bet you are betting the Moneyline. The ML for the ravens is +315. So if you bet 1000 on the Ravens Moneyline you would win 3150. NE is -385 on the Moneyline which means you would have to risk 3850 to win 1000 if you took NE to win straight up.

Go Ravens!!!!
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[quote name='Baltimorefan410' timestamp='1358702346' post='1318422']
Im a noob when it comes to this. Could you explain this a bit? If someone put up $1000 heads up, and won, what would they get paid?
[/quote]

Well im new to it too, but with the point spread being at 8 1/2 and you took the straight bet (heads up, not + 8 1/2) It would pay around 3 to 1.

So you would win 3000.00 if you put up 1000.00 , Also, the place i went to give you 25 % of what you put down in free play. So if you put up a G, you would get 250.00 to bet with on top of that.
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[quote name='terp4life30' timestamp='1358704171' post='1318450']
If you take a straight up bet you are betting the Moneyline. The ML for the ravens is +315. So if you bet 1000 on the Ravens Moneyline you would win 3150. NE is -385 on the Moneyline which means you would have to risk 3850 to win 1000 if you took NE to win straight up.

Go Ravens!!!!
[/quote]

The money line was at 395 and its now down to 310, heck maybe 305 now.
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[quote name='terp4life30' timestamp='1358704171' post='1318450']
If you take a straight up bet you are betting the Moneyline. The ML for the ravens is +315. So if you bet 1000 on the Ravens Moneyline you would win 3150. NE is -385 on the Moneyline which means you would have to risk 3850 to win 1000 if you took NE to win straight up.

Go Ravens!!!!
[/quote]

Scratch that, Now its back up to 330, kinda p.o.ed, i took my last bet at 310 last night
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i'm hoping for a revisit of the 2009 AFC Championship game. Ravens jump out ahead early due to the exceptional game play of both their offense and defense...and they stay ahead to win the game! let's go Ravens!

~Mili
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A lot of confidence in the Ravens has brought that number down a bit. 9-10 points was way too high to begin with, even if NE should be favored by a few. But, we're still underdogs by a full touchdowns. It's time to shock the world again.
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