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IMissMattStover

Playoff Teams' Achilles Heel

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So the local newspaper did an article today on the weakpoint of each of the 12 playoff teams. I am going to list them, and am curious to hear feedback and opinions.

Denver - Turnovers, particularly with the running backs Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman; Peyton's Fragile neck

NE - Called the the closest to perfect, citing only minor RB fumble issues.

Houston - Failure to convert on 3rd down; Failure to stop offenses on 3rd.

Baltimore - Defense, mainly regarding injuries; average season for Ed Reed.

Indy - Youth. Inexperience in playoffs.

Cincy - Andy Dalton inconsistency and home game issues.

Atlanta - Running game

GB - FGs, Mason Crosby

San Fran - David Aker's FGs

Washington - Sudden drop in defense, failure to get off field defensively on 3rd downs

Seattle - Not as good on the road as at home

Minnesota - "Their passing game is putrid."

Well, thoughts?
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Yeah I think my two main issues were that and the fact that it doesnt mention the Packers Swiss Cheese/Sponge Oline.
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[quote name='IMissMattStover' timestamp='1357321721' post='1289301']
Yeah I think my two main issues were that and the fact that it doesnt mention the Packers Swiss Cheese/Sponge Oline.
[/quote]
But he's mobile....jkjkjkjk sorry I just had to
Texans weakness is Shaub. One of the most overrated QBs in the nfl.
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[quote name='Mr. Irrelevant' timestamp='1357322120' post='1289312']
But he's mobile....jkjkjkjk sorry I just had to
Texans weakness is Shaub. One of the most overrated QBs in the nfl.
[/quote]

Lol good one. Yeah I dont know. He has moments of brilliance and then suddenly craps out.
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[quote name='IMissMattStover' timestamp='1357321471' post='1289292']
So the local newspaper did an article today on the weakpoint of each of the 12 playoff teams. I am going to list them, and am curious to hear feedback and opinions.

San Fran - [s]David Aker's[/s] Billy Cundiff's FGs


Well, thoughts?
[/quote]

Fixed that for ya :P
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[quote name='The Raven' timestamp='1357325163' post='1289362']
Indy's oline is swiss cheese, and their defense might as well be 11 cones.
[/quote]

Lol cones. Thats quite the thought and also a good point. But assuming all goes well, Indy doesnt matter much anyway.
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Denver and New England's only weaknesses are the runningbacks fumble some times? Are you kidding me?

Ours is just "defense"? Like the entire group? Half of the team?

And Houston's "achilles heel" makes them sound like the world's worst pro team.

Also, I wouldn't call Peyton's neck an issue when it hasn't been all year.
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[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Bengals / Texans : This is Cincinnati's game to lose. Houston burned themselves out early in the regular season and barely sputtered into the playoffs. If the Bengals keep it close for three-quarters, brace themselves for the Texans best shot, the last fifteen-minutes should give them enough time to take the lead or secure the win. I'm actually going with Cincy.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Colts / Ravens : This game will come down to three factors. Our O-Line, our ability to run the ball and our ability to execute screen plays. Our O-Line cannot allow Freeney & Mathis disrupt the pocket at will. We've seen what Joe can do when he's upright and has time with receivers running shorter routes underneath. Rice & Pierce SHOULD have success against probably a terrible run-defense. As for the screens, if you've ever watched any Colts game, you'll know that a screen is great for at least 10-yards against them because they just don't know how to block. I'm going with our boys.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Vikings / Packers : Can AP do it again? Doubtful, but not impossible. Packers D has been very susceptible these past few weeks. Vikings, aside from AP, they don't have much else to match with the Packers. I've got to go with the Pack.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Seattle / Washington : Of all the other games, aside from the Ravens, this is the one I want to watch the most. Should be exciting to see RGIII and Wilson going head-to-head. Wilson, not a flashy QB but will work in a clinch and with a nice running game to back him and an above-average defense -- Seattle is sitting pretty in this one. Sorry RGIII.[/i][/font]
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[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1357328898' post='1289425']
Denver and New England's only weaknesses are the runningbacks fumble some times? Are you kidding me?

Ours is just "defense"? Like the entire group? Half of the team?

And Houston's "achilles heel" makes them sound like the world's worst pro team.

Also, I wouldn't call Peyton's neck an issue when it hasn't been all year.
[/quote]

Lol I am just posting what the sports writer in the paper said, not my words. The reason I posted this to begin with is that I thought it was a little rediculous.
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[quote name='CosmicRedPanda' timestamp='1357330496' post='1289466']
[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Bengals / Texans : This is Cincinnati's game to lose. Houston burned themselves out early in the regular season and barely sputtered into the playoffs. If the Bengals keep it close for three-quarters, brace themselves for the Texans best shot, the last fifteen-minutes should give them enough time to take the lead or secure the win. I'm actually going with Cincy.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Colts / Ravens : This game will come down to three factors. Our O-Line, our ability to run the ball and our ability to execute screen plays. Our O-Line cannot allow Freeney & Mathis disrupt the pocket at will. We've seen what Joe can do when he's upright and has time with receivers running shorter routes underneath. Rice & Pierce SHOULD have success against probably a terrible run-defense. As for the screens, if you've ever watched any Colts game, you'll know that a screen is great for at least 10-yards against them because they just don't know how to block. I'm going with our boys.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Vikings / Packers : Can AP do it again? Doubtful, but not impossible. Packers D has been very susceptible these past few weeks. Vikings, aside from AP, they don't have much else to match with the Packers. I've got to go with the Pack.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Seattle / Washington : Of all the other games, aside from the Ravens, this is the one I want to watch the most. Should be exciting to see RGIII and Wilson going head-to-head. Wilson, not a flashy QB but will work in a clinch and with a nice running game to back him and an above-average defense -- Seattle is sitting pretty in this one. Sorry RGIII.[/i][/font]
[/quote]

I agree with you on all but one. I think the Bengals will pull of a loss against Houston. Andy Dalton is, imo, one of the most confusing QBs out there, and I see him unable to pull off any major yardage plays against the strange Houston defense. At least a couple blocked passes.
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[quote name='IMissMattStover' timestamp='1357330922' post='1289484']
I agree with you on all but one. I think the Bengals will pull of a loss against Houston. Andy Dalton is, imo, one of the most confusing QBs out there, and I see him unable to pull off any major yardage plays against the strange Houston defense. At least a couple blocked passes.
[/quote]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Oh, when I say close, I mean... seven... ten-points max... if they're out to a seventeen-point lead, Cincy isn't coming from behind to win that ball game. Even if the Bengals have to settle for field goals, as long as their defense keeps the Texans from a late scoring drive... they'll be able to pull this one off by the narrowest of margins... one-point.[/i][/font]
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[quote name='CosmicRedPanda' timestamp='1357331269' post='1289492']
[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Oh, when I say close, I mean... seven... ten-points max... if they're out to a seventeen-point lead, Cincy isn't coming from behind to win that ball game. Even if the Bengals have to settle for field goals, as long as their defense keeps the Texans from a late scoring drive... they'll be able to pull this one off by the narrowest of margins... one-point.[/i][/font]
[/quote]

I suppose I can see that happening. I dont believe that this is going to be a very high scoring game regardless. Neither Dalton nor Schaub are going to be able to put much up, though Cincy seems to play worse occasionaly at home. Who knows?
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[quote name='IMissMattStover' timestamp='1357331373' post='1289496']
I suppose I can see that happening. I dont believe that this is going to be a very high scoring game regardless. Neither Dalton nor Schaub are going to be able to put much up, though Cincy seems to play worse occasionaly at home. Who knows?
[/quote]
I see Cinci pulling off the upset of the year...............
Then they will lose to the Pats
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[quote name='Mr. Irrelevant' timestamp='1357331741' post='1289504']
I see Cinci pulling off the upset of the year...............
Then they will lose to the Pats
[/quote]

In the most embarrassing blowout of the year.
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[quote name='IMissMattStover' timestamp='1357332857' post='1289528']
In the most embarrassing blowout of the year.
[/quote]
Yep :)
Hate the Pats, but will cheer for them in division games
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[quote name='Mr. Irrelevant' timestamp='1357322120' post='1289312']
But he's mobile....jkjkjkjk sorry I just had to
[b]Texans weakness is Shaub. One of the most overrated QBs in the nfl.[/b]
[/quote]
Statistically, this is incorrect.

Over the last 5 seasons, [b]only four NFL QBs have been ranked in the top 10 in passer rating each season[/b]:

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning (not including his injured '11 season)
Aaron Rodgers

and... Matt Schaub.

Roethlisberger, Brees, Rivers, Eli, Stafford... nope.

Schaub may not be an "elite" guy to get you 350 per week, but he's consistent.
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[size=4][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]What's Peyton's record after a playoff bye week? Isn't he winless or close to it? That should be a Denver weakness as well. lol[/font][/size]

[size=4][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]EDIT: Just looked it up. Manning and the Colts had 1st round bye in '99, '05, '07, and '09.[color="#000000"] They went 1-3 during that. I know its a different time now, but still think it should be considered. [/color][/font][/size]
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[quote name='bauer77' timestamp='1357626407' post='1297887']
[font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]What's Peyton's record after a playoff bye week? Isn't he winless or close to it? That should be a Denver weakness as well. lol[/font]

[font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]EDIT: Just looked it up. Manning and the Colts had 1st round bye in '99, '05, '07, and '09.[color=#000000] They went 1-3 during that. I know its a different time now, but still think it should be considered. [/color][/font]
[/quote]

You should also consider that the 1 win out of those 4 games was against Baltimore (unfortunately).

Manning has a 4-7 record in his first playoff games. But in those 11 games he has played very well: 257 / 400, 3134 Yards, 19 TD, 9 INT --> 94.7 QB Rating. That's a 64% completion percentage, 285 yards per game, 2 TDs and 1 INT per game.

(Just as a fun little comparison, in order for Joe Flacco has played in 10 post-season games... since Peyton's numbers up there represent 11 games worth of stats, in order for Flacco to match them in his next game he would have to go 111 / 130 for 1320 Yards, 9 TD, and 1 INT. Obviously impossible in a single game, and even if he had those numbers over a span of say 3 or 4 games, it would be downright impressive... so that's to put Peyton's play-off numbers into perspective, so the fact that he lost 7 out of 11 games with those numbers doesn't indicate that HE is a play-off choker so much as that his team couldn't do enough to help him win).

Anyway...

He lost his first 3 playoff games as the #1 or #2 seed (against TEN, PIT, and DSG), but won his 4th (and most recent) against us. In that 1-3 span, he went 104 / 172, 1165 Yards, 6 TD, 3 INT --> 85.1 QB Rating. Still not too bad.

Prior to 2009, he had gone 3-6 in his first playoff games, but the way that they had come was rather interesting: He had lost every game when he had a playoff bye (TEN, PIT, SDG). He had lost every Wild Card game on the road (MIA, NYJ, SDG). And he had won every Wild Card game at home (DEN, DEN, KAN).

So he was 0-3 when he had a bye, 0-3 when he started on the road, and 3-0 when he had a home game in the wild card round.

That trend got bucked in 2009. He had a bye, and won against us. And then in 2010 he had a home wild card game and LOST against the Jets.

So what have I learned from this? Whether Peyton was playing well or not, the Colts TEAM lost games. I don't expect that same stigma to afflict the Broncos, who are probably a much better team surrounding Peyton than he ever had in the Colts. Peyton himself has never had a particularly hard time performing well in the playoffs, with the exception of (ironically enough) his Super Bowl year, where he played poorly, but his team lifted him up and won games (the opposite of the trend for his time with the Colts). But moreover, I have learned that trends can be broken. If history had gone purely by the trends in 2009, we would have won that game in Indianapolis, not Peyton. And the Jets in 2010 wouldn't have stood a chance. So what do we learn from past history, in terms of predicting the future? Not much, really.
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That was a well informed post, but im too busy laughing about the stats Joe needs to put up to match Peyton. Thats hilarious. Record setting game, huh? 100+ completions, 1300+ yards and 9 tds? Lol a HOF day.
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