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Sizzlebshu

How much should we pay Flacco?

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In all likelihood, we are going to resign Joe Flacco as our QB. Now while there some people here who think we are better off getting rid of him, we don't need troll posts like nothing, or $1 or something thats not even remotely close to a contract possibility. If you want to do that, go to the assessment thread please, no need to derail the thread. To the rest of you, I ask how much we should pay him and how much do you think we are going to pay him?

I think we will end up paying him 14 million a year, but I only think he deserves 12 million.
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I think we need to wait and see how the season plays out. It's been pretty rough so far, but there have been stretches of excellent play to go along with stretches of poor play. Not all the blame lies with Flacco, but he certainly shoulders much of it. If we can finish the season strong and make a run in the playoffs I think he can ask for the 13-15M range. However, if this implosion continues and Flacco and the rest of the offense still looks anemic I cant justify much more than 12-13M. It's really on Joe's shoulders.

Most likely what ends up happening is he gets the Franchise Tag and screws our cap situation.
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He will probably get the Franchise Tag just so we make sure he doesn't hit the open market and a team like Arizona or the Jets would over-pay for him. Like gabefergy said though, let this season play out, see how far he takes us. I'm hoping we go $11-13 million. But he could ask for as much as 14-15M.
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1355961241' post='1271059']
I think we need to wait and see how the season plays out. It's been pretty rough so far, but there have been stretches of excellent play to go along with stretches of poor play. Not all the blame lies with Flacco, but he certainly shoulders much of it. If we can finish the season strong and make a run in the playoffs I think he can ask for the 13-15M range. However, if this implosion continues and Flacco and the rest of the offense still looks anemic I cant justify much more than 12-13M. It's really on Joe's shoulders.

Most likely what ends up happening is he gets the Franchise Tag and screws our cap situation.
[/quote]

I really think the tag is a last resort and the front office doesnt want to have to do that. I am hoping it doesnt come to that and if it does we work out a deal quickly so we can make some moves in FA.

I dont see much benefit to either side waiting it out. Flacco has a tough schedule left and for his next game he may be without #1 receiver Torrey Smith. So Flacco's agent cant be happy with the idea of Flacco tanking his stock even more due to personnel problems and the front office doesnt want to risk him playing better upping his stock. I am not saying a deal gets done this week, just that waiting it out doesnt benefit either side. There are other risks to waiting it for the front office like Joe's agent forcing them to tag him if they dont give an adequate offer.
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[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1355961790' post='1271069']
I really think the tag is a last resort and the front office doesnt want to have to do that. I am hoping it doesnt come to that and if it does we work out a deal quickly so we can make some moves in FA.

I dont see much benefit to either side waiting it out. Flacco has a tough schedule left and for his next game he may be without #1 receiver Torrey Smith. So Flacco's agent cant be happy with the idea of Flacco tanking his stock even more due to personnel problems and the front office doesnt want to risk him playing better upping his stock. I am not saying a deal gets done this week, just that waiting it out doesnt benefit either side.
[/quote]


Anybody know how much the tag would actually be? Wouldn't it be about 18-19M? Or am i wrong?
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[quote name='bauer77' timestamp='1355961960' post='1271070']
Anybody know how much the tag would actually be? Wouldn't it be about 18-19M? Or am i wrong?
[/quote]

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/An-early-look-at-2013-franchise-tag-numbers.html

It s about 14.5 million
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[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1355961790' post='1271069']
I really think the tag is a last resort and the front office doesnt want to have to do that. I am hoping it doesnt come to that and if it does we work out a deal quickly so we can make some moves in FA.

I dont see much benefit to either side waiting it out. Flacco has a tough schedule left and for his next game he may be without #1 receiver Torrey Smith. So Flacco's agent cant be happy with the idea of Flacco tanking his stock even more due to personnel problems and the front office doesnt want to risk him playing better upping his stock. I am not saying a deal gets done this week, just that waiting it out doesnt benefit either side. There are other risks to waiting it for the front office like Joe's agent forcing them to tag him if they dont give an adequate offer.
[/quote]

I dont think a deal will be done this season, but maybe I am wrong.
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If the tag is 14.5, then I'd sign him for 11 per year for 5 years with about 30-35 guaranteed. I'd also like us to draft a decent rookie like A. J. McCarron to be waiting in the wings if we need to jettison Flacco before the contract is up.
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[quote name='CapoRocky' timestamp='1355963304' post='1271096']
If the tag is 14.5, then I'd sign him for 11 per year for 5 years with about 30-35 guaranteed. I'd also like us to draft a decent rookie like A. J. McCarron to be waiting in the wings if we need to jettison Flacco before the contract is up.
[/quote]

There's no way Flacco signs for only 11M per year and A.J. McCarron isnt entering the draft, not that he has any NFL potential anyways.
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[quote name='bauer77' timestamp='1355961578' post='1271065']
He will probably get the Franchise Tag just so we make sure he doesn't hit the open market and a team like Arizona or the Jets would over-pay for him. Like gabefergy said though, let this season play out, see how far he takes us. I'm hoping we go $11-13 million. But he could ask for as much as 14-15M.
[/quote]

If they tag him he'll get like 17mil for that year so how are they going turn around and try to under pay him a contract for 14mil a year???? He will not get the tag...
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[quote name='CapoRocky' timestamp='1355963304' post='1271096']
If the tag is 14.5, then I'd sign him for 11 per year for 5 years with about 30-35 guaranteed. I'd also like us to draft a decent rookie like A. J. McCarron to be waiting in the wings if we need to jettison Flacco before the contract is up.
[/quote]

This is funny!!!
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[quote name='PurpleCityLights' timestamp='1355964079' post='1271104']
If they tag him he'll get like 17mil for that year so how are they going turn around and try to under pay him a contract for 14mil a year???? He will not get the tag...
[/quote]
They will do what Rice did... Its gonna come down to the wire....
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1355963776' post='1271101']
There's no way Flacco signs for only 11M per year and A.J. McCarron isnt entering the draft, not that he has any NFL potential anyways.
[/quote]

I would negotiate soon before Flacco starts to win again. I'm not sure how high they will go for him but I don't see us paying him more than 12-13 a year. At least we aren't the Jets who have Sanchez guaranteed for 8.5 next season.
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[quote name='1/28/01' timestamp='1355964240' post='1271106']
This is funny!!!
[/quote]

His value dropped when we were losing 31 to 3.
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[quote name='CapoRocky' timestamp='1355964400' post='1271111']
His value dropped when we were losing 31 to 3.
[/quote]

Dude, player value doesn't drop according to one or even five game performances, they are based on an overall basis. If we win our next two games and win one or more in the playoffs, 31 to 3 will mean squat.
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I dont think a lot of you realize the market value of the QB in today's NFL. Matt Schaub got 14M a year. I dont think anyone can argue that Schaub has been a signficantly better QB than Flacco. Schaub has put up some prettier stats, but over the course of their respective careers Flacco has been much more consistent and clutch. He is also younger with more upside. It's pretty clear that a lot of Ravens fans are suffering from what psychologist's refer to as recency bias. We have just watched Flacco play pretty poorly in a few games and all of a sudden he only deserves 10-11M? Sorry to burst your bubble, but that's not happening.
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1355965767' post='1271137']
I dont think a lot of you realize the market value of the QB in today's NFL. Matt Schaub got 14M a year. I dont think anyone can argue that Schaub has been a signficantly better QB than Flacco. Schaub has put up some prettier stats, but over the course of their respective careers Flacco has been much more consistent and clutch. He is also younger with more upside. It's pretty clear that a lot of Ravens fans are suffering from what psychologist's refer to as recency bias. We have just watched Flacco play pretty poorly in a few games and all of a sudden he only deserves 10-11M? Sorry to burst your bubble, but that's not happening.
[/quote]
I am not suffering from that, and I cant speak for the rest of people, but if you look at the market for QBs is going to force us to overpay Flacco. Flacco doesnt deserve 14 million. Has he won games? Yea of course, but his numbers are about the same as Eli's only slightly better (Eli's are terrible outside of last year btw). For the record, Eli didnt deserve his contract but a superbowl win + having the last name Manning got him his.

Likewise, flacco doesnt derserve a huge contact. He hasn't put up elite numbers or even consistency with certain numbers, but the market says a qb like that is now worth 15 million (because other qbs were grossly overpayed cough Brees cough).

If you put relate positions to cap and players value at that position to the cap (how much of a team's cap a qb is worth, and how good of a qb is Flacco and how much of the cap should he account for), Flacco is not worth 15 million or 12.5% of our cap when Peyton who is one of the best of all time is only worth 15% of the team's cap. He just has not been that good and extra money that is forced to go to him, could actually net us a player that can help him and us a lot.

Again this is not Flacco's fault, other teams have grossly inflated the market for QB's, and as a result we will be forced to pay Flacco more than he is actually worth, but Flacco's production doesn't balance out the % of cap he will be paid.

Thats what I feel upsets people about Flacco.
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[quote name='PurpleCityLights' timestamp='1355964079' post='1271104']
If they tag him he'll get like 17mil for that year so how are they going turn around and try to under pay him a contract for 14mil a year???? He will not get the tag...
[/quote]


Did you not read any of the above posts? [url="http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/An-early-look-at-2013-franchise-tag-numbers.html"]http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/An-early-look-at-2013-franchise-tag-numbers.html[/url] The projected franchise tag value for a QB is about 14.5M. And i believe there is a strong possibility we could give him the tag with the way he has played this year. Why would we want to sigh him if we don't think he is going to improve anymore in his 6 year? Why would we want to invest so much money in him, and possibly it screw us over down the road?

Get him a new OC that can work with him during training camp, if we see a drastic improvement next year, then we sign him long term. If not, then he walks after next year.
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[center][img]http://techcitement.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/dr-evil.jpg[/img][/center]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]~ Cosmic[/i][/font]
[s][font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Seriously though, I'd say $75-80M for 5-years.[/i][/font][/s][font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i] Make it $42-45M for 3 years, that sounds better, just in case he winds up busting and we have a better option coming up in a draft we can trade up for.[/i][/font]
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[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1355966222' post='1271146']
I am not suffering from that, and I cant speak for the rest of people, but if you look at the market for QBs is going to force us to overpay Flacco. Flacco doesnt deserve 14 million. Has he won games? Yea of course, but his numbers are about the same as Eli's only slightly better (Eli's are terrible outside of last year btw). For the record, Eli didnt deserve his contract but a superbowl win + having the last name Manning got him his.

Likewise, flacco doesnt derserve a huge contact. He hasn't put up elite numbers or even consistency with certain numbers, but the market says a qb like that is now worth 15 million (because other qbs were grossly overpayed cough Brees cough).

If you put relate positions to cap and players value at that position to the cap (how much of a team's cap a qb is worth, and how good of a qb is Flacco and how much of the cap should he account for), Flacco is not worth 15 million or 12.5% of our cap when Peyton who is one of the best of all time is only worth 15% of the team's cap. He just has not been that good and extra money that is forced to go to him, could actually net us a player that can help him and us a lot.

Again this is not Flacco's fault, other teams have grossly inflated the market for QB's, and as a result we will be forced to pay Flacco more than he is actually worth, but Flacco's production doesn't balance out the % of cap he will be paid.

Thats what I feel upsets people about Flacco.
[/quote]

I wasnt really referring to you. I'm talking about the people saying he should sign for 10 or 11M a year. That's not happening, not should it. Flacco is a better QB than those who have gotten that type of money and he deserves at least 12-13M a year IMO. Depending on what he does the rest of this season he could ask for even more and not be out of line.
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1355966777' post='1271158']
I wasnt really referring to you. I'm talking about the people saying he should sign for 10 or 11M a year. That's not happening, not should it. Flacco is a better QB than those who have gotten that type of money and he deserves at least 12-13M a year IMO. Depending on what he does the rest of this season he could ask for even more and not be out of line.
[/quote]
I realize im just pointing out a counterargument to your recency argument.

On Eli contact, [url="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/eli-manning/"]http://www.spotrac.c...ts/eli-manning/[/url] - This was actually much better than I realized, but the market when he signed this was also much cheaper so I can't judge the contract since I don't know the market back then.

However, my point stands that I don't think Flacco deserves more than 12-13 million maximum. Flacco is up there in the top 25% of QB's in the NFL, but the disparity between Flacco at 7 or 8 and the next 6 or so QB's is huge in terms of production and his salary should reflect that.

Let's say Flacco is 7th and Ben is 5th. Ben is averaging 12.75 a year ( 8 years 102 million). You cant tell me Flacco should be making more than Ben when comparing production and skill set, but inflation is gonna cause Flacco to make more than Ben even though Ben is dramatically more important to his team than Flacco is to the Ravens.

Even accounting for inflation and the difference in skill set though, I think 13 million is the right number for Flacco. Ben is underpaid in today's market (maybe not when he signed the contract), but is much better than Flacco and his resume is also better. However, inflation dictates that Flacco will ultimately be paid more. So less skills but greater inflation in my opinion means a slightly bigger contract than what Ben has.

I see the tag as a penalty more than anything else ie you shoot yourself in the foot to prevent getting shot in the head in this case, so I don't think we should pay Flacco the value of the tag per year which is what he will likely go for.
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[quote name='Mr. Irrelevant' timestamp='1355967429' post='1271164']
What I want!
[/quote]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]I thought that was Flacco's agent in the picture. Am I mistaken? :P[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]~ Cosmic[/i][/font]
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[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1355967342' post='1271163']
I realize im just pointing out a counterargument to your recency argument.

On Eli contact, [url="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/eli-manning/"]http://www.spotrac.c...ts/eli-manning/[/url] - This was actually much better than I realized, but the market when he signed this was also much cheaper so I can't judge the contract since I don't know the market back then.

However, my point stands that I don't think Flacco deserves more than 12-13 million maximum. Flacco is up there in the top 25% of QB's in the NFL, but the disparity between Flacco at 7 or 8 and the next 6 or so QB's is huge in terms of production and his salary should reflect that.

Let's say Flacco is 7th and Ben is 5th. Ben is averaging 12.75 a year ( 8 years 102 million). You cant tell me Flacco should be making more than Ben when comparing production and skill set, but inflation is gonna cause Flacco to make more than Ben even though Ben is dramatically more important to his team than Flacco is to the Ravens.

Even accounting for inflation and the difference in skill set though, I think 13 million is the right number for Flacco. Ben is underpaid in today's market (maybe not when he signed the contract), but is much better than Flacco and his resume is also better. However, inflation dictates that Flacco will ultimately be paid more. So less skills but greater inflation in my opinion means a slightly bigger contract than what Ben has.

I see the tag as a penalty more than anything else ie you shoot yourself in the foot to prevent getting shot in the head in this case, so I don't think we should pay Flacco the value of the tag per year which is what he will likely go for.
[/quote]

I agree with what you are saying, but the fact is the market has changed. Guys like Roethlisberger and Eli would be making more like 16-17M a year if they were signing a new contract in the offseason. It's hard to argue that Flacco is worth 15M a year, but that is kind of line with the current market. If you go strictly by stats he is a bit below that, but the fact that he has been such a winning QB throughout his career also can't be denied. It's a pretty tough spot to be in, but I dont think the Ravens will be moving on from Flacco no matter how much fans whine about him.
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1355968640' post='1271184']
I agree with what you are saying, but the fact is the market has changed. Guys like Roethlisberger and Eli would be making more like 16-17M a year if they were signing a new contract in the offseason. It's hard to argue that Flacco is worth 15M a year, but that is kind of line with the current market. If you go strictly by stats he is a bit below that, but the fact that he has been such a winning QB throughout his career also can't be denied. It's a pretty tough spot to be in, but I dont think the Ravens will be moving on from Flacco no matter how much fans whine about him.
[/quote]

If 12.75 back then is worth 16 now

I am saying Flacco was likely 8-10 million QB back then at those rates.

But regardless there is a way for everyone to get what they want

Sign Flacco to a long term deal that is backloaded with a decent guaranteed money or give the team an option at some point to be able to cut ties with Flacco without incurring any penalties.

Scenario 1
Flacco gets 7 years at 14 mil a year

During first three years he'll get paid 10 million, 12 million, 13 million with the remainder split out (TV contracts should kick in upping the cap which would balance out the inflationary effect. ). The remainder balances out about 15.5 mil a year (rough estimate)

Problem: We would have to give Flacco a significant amount of guaranteed money to make him go for this.

Scenario 2
We give Flacco a normal contract but after 3 years the team has the option of letting Flacco go and owing him nothing.

Problem: Flacco would never go for it unless it was frontloaded or he got a significant amount of guaranteed money.

While the latter is extremely unlikely the former is workable with a decent amount of guaranteed money. 98 million dollars (14 x 7) with 40 million guaranteed might get it done.
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If Flacco gets decent guaranteed money, then his salary the first year or two would be closer to the vet minimum. That also allows some breathing room against the cap.

For example, he gets $40 guaranteed on a 7 year contract. I think teams can spread the bonus only over 5 years now, so that would be $8 million per year. Year 1 he gets $2 million salary for a cap hit of $10 million. That's why a long-term deal is better than the tag. It would free up nearly $5 million in cap space.

They can also do a split bonus (half now, half next year) which would benefit our cap situation even more.
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[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1355969392' post='1271195']
If 12.75 back then is worth 16 now

I am saying Flacco was likely 8-10 million QB back then at those rates.

But regardless there is a way for everyone to get what they want

Sign Flacco to a long term deal that is backloaded with a decent guaranteed money or give the team an option at some point to be able to cut ties with Flacco without incurring any penalties.

Scenario 1
Flacco gets 7 years at 14 mil a year

During first three years he'll get paid 10 million, 12 million, 13 million with the remainder split out (TV contracts should kick in upping the cap which would balance out the inflationary effect. ). The remainder balances out about 15.5 mil a year (rough estimate)

Problem: We would have to give Flacco a significant amount of guaranteed money to make him go for this.

Scenario 2
We give Flacco a normal contract but after 3 years the team has the option of letting Flacco go and owing him nothing.

Problem: Flacco would never go for it unless it was frontloaded or he got a significant amount of guaranteed money.

While the latter is extremely unlikely the former is workable with a decent amount of guaranteed money. 98 million dollars (14 x 7) with 40 million guaranteed might get it done.
[/quote]

I think the first option is clearly the way to go, but I would guess it will be even more backloaded in terms of [i]salary[/i]. The first two to three years he should make 4-5M in base salary but I would imagine he would get something like 35M-45M in guaranteed money with most of it coming in the form of a signing bonus. I would imagine there might also be escalators or performance bonuses worked into the deal as well that would kick in for AFC championship/SB wins and possibly Pro Bowl or number plateaus.

Just to make it simple if he gets the contract you suggested 98M over 7 years, lets say he gets 35M up front.

Then the contract needs to pay him 63M in salary over 7 years, it might look something like this:

4.5M/5.5M/7.5M/9.5M/11.5M/12M/12.5M.

After the first 3 years the new TV contracts should be fully kicked in and the salary cap will be considerably higher, probably in the range of 140M+.
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1355970147' post='1271228']
I think the first option is clearly the way to go, but I would guess it will be even more backloaded in terms of [i]salary[/i]. The first two to three years he should make 4-5M in base salary but I would imagine he would get something like 35M-45M in guaranteed money with most of it coming in the form of a signing bonus. I would imagine there might also be escalators or performance bonuses worked into the deal as well that would kick in for AFC championship/SB wins and possibly Pro Bowl or number plateaus.

Just to make it simple if he gets the contract you suggested 98M over 7 years, lets say he gets 35M up front.

Then the contract needs to pay him 63M in salary over 7 years, it might look something like this:

4.5M/5.5M/7.5M/9.5M/11.5M/12M/12.5M.

After the first 3 years the new TV contracts should be fully kicked in and the salary cap will be considerably higher, probably in the range of 140M+.
[/quote]
I would be absolutely fine with this because it lets you sign Flacco for his true value in relation to the cap. Ultiamtely we only have to play this game until one of two things happens

1. Ed and Ray retire or are gone in some way

2. The TV contracts kick in.

The first way would clear up about 10 mill in cap at least. The TV contracts would likely increase the cap by the same amount, however, with the second way comes inflation.
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