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Worthy

2013 Salary Cap Casualities

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Next year, we could have some salary cap causalities that could drastically change the way the team looks next year.

With Flacco, look for him to sign around 16M a year that will pretty much evaporate our salary cap space.

Our current [url="http://russellstreetreport.com/salary-cap/"]salary cap[/url].

Next year, we have Pitta, Kruger, Dickson, Reed, Ellerbe, A. Jones, and C. Williams all up for contracts. You can't sign 'em all -- so who do you pay? And who becomes a "salary cap casualty"?

I believe as sad as it is, I believe that Ed Reed and Ed Dickson will become a salary cap casualties.

What are your thoughts?
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[url="http://russellstreetreport.com/salary-cap/2013-ravens-salary-cap/"]This is a chart for who we have under contract for 2013 and who we have left to sign.[/url]
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Finally someone who knows a decent reliable cap source when the see it.

Four stand out to me. Boldin and ray at both over 7 mil are clearly not worth that based on performance.

Then Jacoby and leach. Jacoby should see an extension reducing his cap number to hopefully around 3. Leach isn't worth over 4 mil for the percentage of the plays he's on the field for.

Either we use him more to get moneys worth, we cut him and find a cheaper option, or we re work his deal. But 4 mil plus for someone who sees round about 25 percent of our offenses snaps is extortionate.
-7

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Ellerbe and Pitta have performed well but I don't see us paying another ILB and Pitta has been injury prone, he's no good to us off the field.

To me Art Jones and Paul Kruger (in that order) are the guys we need to re-sign after Flacco.
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No chance Flacco gets 16 million, IMO. With the way he's playing now, plus the deal Rice got, he's going to get something less or walk. I'm guessing the most they offer him is 11-12 million a year, maybe with incentives. 16 million is for guys who have won superbowls and something useless GMs (see: The Jets) do to appease crybaby quarterbacks.
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Flacco's contract situation should be very interesting. Big deal? Small deal? Franchised? Let him test and he walks?
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Ouch at all the dead money and at Suggs cap number of nearly $12 million.


Ayanbadejo -gone, carey williams- gone, bobbie williams - gone, matt birk - gone, Boldin - gone, Ray Lewis - gone, ed Reed - gone.

Those alone = $28,816,583 in cap value this year
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[quote name='1/28/01' timestamp='1354630531' post='1246209']
Flacco's contract situation should be very interesting. Big deal? Small deal? Franchised? Let him test and he walks?
[/quote]

Here in the Chiefs viewing area, I see a problem with Flacco for the Ravens, the Chiefs need a actual QB and would seemingly overpay for Flacco and drive up the Ravens price tag, plus KC has massive amounts of cap room. I really hope the ravens don't overpay for him, he should not see anything over $12 million a year?
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Unless something really happens with Flacco, I can not see him getting a big contract. While I realize the defense hasn't been up to par, partially due to being fluttered with injuries, Flacco has been nothing to be in awe about either this season. At this current rate -- I could not see him getting the 16 M mark, or probably even near. 9 to 11 M? Something says franchise him, and give him 1 more year.
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I could easily see us franchising Flacco next year after Cam is fired in the off season.. I see Lewis as done and Reed being on his way out. That should clear up about 13-14. I could be wrong but I think Ngatas contract drops in cap hit as does Rices. I think we can tender Pitta and Dickson next year so the cap hit shouldn't be that bad. Ellerbe I feel needs to be resigned. Always been a fan. Hes had the physical aspect, just needed to work on the mental. Kruger might be kept for depth or maybe we go with to the practice squad(guy from the Cowboys) and draft another rusher or d end.
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The 16M cap hit is based on the 2013 salary cap figures.

http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/2013/cap-hit/quarterback/

You'd see that 16 million cap hit would be outside the top 10 QB's salary cap hits next year.
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It seems someone keeps trying to make this Flacco's team but Rice's name keep coming up, especially when we lose after excluding him. Now someone even post that Rice is overpaid. How interesting!

So the questions is, can this ever become Joe's team as long as Rice is so valued?
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[quote name='redrum52' timestamp='1354634821' post='1246272']
I could easily see us franchising Flacco next year after Cam is fired in the off season.. I see Lewis as done and Reed being on his way out. That should clear up about 13-14. I could be wrong but I think Ngatas contract drops in cap hit as does Rices. I think we can tender Pitta and Dickson next year so the cap hit shouldn't be that bad. Ellerbe I feel needs to be resigned. Always been a fan. Hes had the physical aspect, just needed to work on the mental. Kruger might be kept for depth or maybe we go with to the practice squad(guy from the Cowboys) and draft another rusher or d end.
[/quote]

According to the [url="http://russellstreetreport.com/salary-cap/2013-ravens-salary-cap/"]Russell Street Report[/url], Reed isn't included in the 105M already committed to next year. Ray Lewis is only 5.75M in cap space next year. So you only have min cap space saved. Sad, but Boldin could be a salary cap hit with the depth of WR's on the team. I believe Cary Williams, Kruger, A. Jones will all be resigned as Ozzie always signs for player going up in value.
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[quote name='HoldingCall' timestamp='1354639113' post='1246370']
Salary cap issues could turn this team into what the San Diego Chargers are experiencing if the F.O. is not wise.
[/quote]
agreed.
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An underrated and overlooked value of Joe is his durability. How can that be ignored and how much is it worth? Ray Rice the same way. Based on what they mean to the team and their availability from week-to-week. I think the Ravens find a way to keep them both.

If the offense could have taken control this season then the causalities would have come mainly from the defensive side. Now, I can see both side suffering losses.

Byant McKinnie, Bobby Williams, Maake Kemeostu, Matt Birk, gone!.
Matt Birk could retire and Ray Lewis might renegotiate.
Ed Reed could test the market, retire, or may go elsewhere. I don't see the Ravens giving him an agreeable multi-year contract offer.

Carey Williams has turned things around and is proving himself so a deal may get done or they may rely on J. Smith, Graham, Webb, and Brown as the main CB's.
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[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1354629135' post='1246200']
No chance Flacco gets 16 million, IMO. With the way he's playing now, plus the deal Rice got, he's going to get something less or walk. I'm guessing the most they offer him is 11-12 million a year, maybe with incentives. 16 million is for guys who have won superbowls and something useless GMs (see: The Jets) do to appease crybaby quarterbacks.
[/quote]

I think Flaccos going to get in the 14 mil pryr.range.I'd like to see it at 5 yrs.though,as I believe now he is either at or close to his ceiling.
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First off i do not see why you would give Flacco 16 mill a year when the average QB pay this year is 7.75 mill. So say he is better then average which is pushing by his numbers this year. Why not more like between 10 and 12 Mill ?

Looks like Boldin will be gone and Ray will need to redo his contract and Carey Williams please be gone. I hate to say it but i think you are right with Ayanbadejo being gone and Birk as well. I would love to try to keep Jacoby because he is a very good return guy and Graham as well. He has filled a big hole very well as J. Smith cannot stay healthy.

Has anyone looked at Reeds contract as well ? I would like to see ihedigbo get some play time, he is actually in on plays and not just sitting there waiting for the ball to pop out like Reed.
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The problem isn't whether or not Joe is worth $16M, it's just what it's going to COST to keep him, even if we franchise him. [url="http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Will-Joe-Flacco-get-paid-as-a-topfive-quarterback.html"]This article really explains it.[/url]

Just some snippets out of it, if you're too lazy to read it.

[color=#333333][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=1]
[size=4]The non-exclusive franchise number, which is calculated over a five-year period that’s tied to a percentage of the overall salary cap, can’t be determined until the 2013 cap is set. It is $14.436 million this year, which equates to 11.97% of the cap. Since this quarterback franchise number is expected to be at 12.013% of the cap next year while the cap is projected to remain relatively flat, it will increase minimally for 2013.[/size][/size][/font][/color][color=#333333][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=1]
[size=4]Assuming the cap is set at $121 million, Flacco’s 2013 non-exclusive franchise number will be $14.536 million. If the Ravens applied a second franchise tag to Flacco, his franchise number in 2014 would be $17.443 million, a 20% increase over his 2013 franchise number. With Flacco’s 2015 franchise number being 144% of his 2014 one, the Ravens probably wouldn’t franchise him for a third time at $25.118 million. [b]Given that the Ravens would be required to pay Flacco approximately $32 million over the next two years as a franchise player, depending on where the 2013 cap finally comes in, they shouldn’t have a problem guaranteeing him at least $32 million in his new deal. These franchise numbers could also be used as a guide for his contract average and first three years of compensation.[/b][/size][/size][/font][/color]
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[quote name='Worthy' timestamp='1354635382' post='1246282']
The 16M cap hit is based on the 2013 salary cap figures.

http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/2013/cap-hit/quarterback/

You'd see that 16 million cap hit would be outside the top 10 QB's salary cap hits next year.
[/quote]

What is kind of scary about this is that 5 of the top 10 highest paid QB's have won the SB. Knowing that agents will try to get the max for their client as they get paid that way too, I'm thinking $16M is probably ballpark what they are looking for for Flacco. A QB that goes to the playoffs every year, byproduct of the team or not, can most likely get that.
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[quote name='Worthy' timestamp='1354643042' post='1246483']
The problem isn't whether or not Joe is worth $16M, it's just what it's going to COST to keep him, even if we franchise him. [url="http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Will-Joe-Flacco-get-paid-as-a-topfive-quarterback.html"]This article really explains it.[/url]

Just some snippets out of it, if you're too lazy to read it.


[color=#333333][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=1][size=4]The non-exclusive franchise number, which is calculated over a five-year period that’s tied to a percentage of the overall salary cap, can’t be determined until the 2013 cap is set. It is $14.436 million this year, which equates to 11.97% of the cap. Since this quarterback franchise number is expected to be at 12.013% of the cap next year while the cap is projected to remain relatively flat, it will increase minimally for 2013.[/size][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=1][size=4]Assuming the cap is set at $121 million, Flacco’s 2013 non-exclusive franchise number will be $14.536 million. If the Ravens applied a second franchise tag to Flacco, his franchise number in 2014 would be $17.443 million, a 20% increase over his 2013 franchise number. With Flacco’s 2015 franchise number being 144% of his 2014 one, the Ravens probably wouldn’t franchise him for a third time at $25.118 million. [b]Given that the Ravens would be required to pay Flacco approximately $32 million over the next two years as a franchise player, depending on where the 2013 cap finally comes in, they shouldn’t have a problem guaranteeing him at least $32 million in his new deal. These franchise numbers could also be used as a guide for his contract average and first three years of compensation.[/b][/size][/size][/font][/color]
[/quote]

I always get pressed by numbers on the Cap number and that helped a lot and i thank you for that. I am never sure about the percentages etc. I do think though that we need to get a deal done so it does save some room. What would be a good and fair length of the contract ?
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Off Topic but look at the 2013 cap hits for LineBackers, Steelers have 3 in the top 10 :

[url="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/lamarr-woodley/"]LaMarr Woodley[/url] $13,240,000
[url="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/lawrence-timmons/"]Lawrence Timmons[/url]
$11,160,000
[url="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/james-harrison/"]James Harrison[/url]
$10,035,000


$33 million in three linebackers, Wow.


And Suggs Cap Hit:

2012-$11.5

2013-$13

2014-$12.4
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Honestly, you try to give Joe a 5 year contract and backload the contract to open salary room on the front side, And as the salary cap grows over the years it's a cap that grows as his contract grows. So basically you'd hope for a 5 year $80 million with perhaps 30 million guaranteed so that it's 6 million bonus spread over 5 years (on the cap) along with his salary. His salary can be smaller on the front side of the contract and it grows on the backside as the cap grows.
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So you are and can basically defer the money ? That i like. I always wondered why the MLB would offer gaurranteed money regardless of your play. I believe that is why Angelos stopped spending after the terrible luck he had with Belle, Anderson, Davis and numerous more. I like the NFL idea that if you do not play you do not get paid.
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[quote name='Worthy' timestamp='1354619940' post='1246129']
Next year, we could have some salary cap causalities that could drastically change the way the team looks next year.

With Flacco, look for him to sign around 16M a year that will pretty much evaporate our salary cap space.

Our current [url="http://russellstreetreport.com/salary-cap/"]salary cap[/url].

Next year, we have Pitta, Kruger, Dickson, Reed, Ellerbe, A. Jones, and C. Williams all up for contracts. You can't sign 'em all -- so who do you pay? And who becomes a "salary cap casualty"?

I believe as sad as it is, I believe that Ed Reed and Ed Dickson will become a salary cap casualties.

What are your thoughts?
[/quote]keep Reed and Jones only because Pitta cant block, dickson cant catch,and williams can defend good put Kruger on the trade block in the offseason for a pick in this years draft, and wait and see 4 ellerbe
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[quote name='nextgen_RavensFan' timestamp='1354646533' post='1246546']
So you are and can basically defer the money ? That i like. I always wondered why the MLB would offer gaurranteed money regardless of your play. I believe that is why Angelos stopped spending after the terrible luck he had with Belle, Anderson, Davis and numerous more. I like the NFL idea that if you do not play you do not get paid.
[/quote]

Basically you can defer the "base salary" aspect, but you can't defer "guaranteed" signing bonuses. However the signing bonuses can be spread over the length of the contract. But this can be dangerous, for example this year I believe we had $3.75 M of dead money on McGahee's contract, $3M of dead money in a Foxworth contract, and $2.85M on Carr's contract. You can really bog a team down if you sign long contracts and release players. You can see the [url="http://russellstreetreport.com/salary-cap/"]dead money on this page[/url].
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[quote name='Worthy' timestamp='1354647151' post='1246557']
Basically you can defer the "base salary" aspect, but you can't defer "guaranteed" signing bonuses. However the signing bonuses can be spread over the length of the contract. But this can be dangerous, for example this year I believe we had $3.75 M of dead money on McGahee's contract, $3M of dead money in a Foxworth contract, and $2.85M on Carr's contract. You can really bog a team down if you sign long contracts and release players. You can see the [url="http://russellstreetreport.com/salary-cap/"]dead money on this page[/url].
[/quote]

Steelers will be in a heap of trouble from this in a few years I believe, with all the restructing they have done, if I understand it correctly.
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[quote name='nextgen_RavensFan' timestamp='1354646533' post='1246546']
So you are and can basically defer the money ? That i like. I always wondered why the MLB would offer gaurranteed money regardless of your play. I believe that is why Angelos stopped spending after the terrible luck he had with Belle, Anderson, Davis and numerous more. I like the NFL idea that if you do not play you do not get paid.
[/quote]

You can defer money - the problem with that becomes if you cut a player early, then you are stuck paying the guaranteed money on the contract for the remaining years of the deal. It works both ways, though - in fact I think with Rice's deal it's front loaded to give him the bulk of the money in the first two years, and then it's very small in comparison at the end - which is a smart deal with running backs since they tend to hit a wall in their late 20s to early 30s. But again, with backloading a deal, if a guy is cut, you still have to pay the guaranteed money, which isn't an issue for Biscotti as an owner, but becomes a factor when calculating salary cap for the year.
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[quote name='SuggsBarber' timestamp='1354642167' post='1246461']
I think Flaccos going to get in the 14 mil pryr.range.I'd like to see it at 5 yrs.though,as [b]I believe now he is either at or close to his ceiling.[/b]
[/quote]

I can't say that, because I've seen the history of Cam Cameron's last "star" pupils, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, and saw what they did after they got away from him. But at this point, from what I'm seeing from him, 14 million would be more than I am willing to pay. He's a solid starting quarterback, but I'm not paying top money for a solid guy, I want a top guy, and I'm not going to take the risk the Giants took with Eli or the Jets took with Sanchez.
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