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eandb17

Playoff Scenarios & Discussion

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With 5 Games left

So Ravens are 9-2 already and undefeated against the Division.
Pittsburgh is 6-5 and lost to Baltimore once.
Cincinnati is 6-5 and lost twice in the division, once to Baltimore.

So the Ravens are 3 games up on both teams. If the Bengals lose and we win next week I believe that we have clinched the division. I guess we are all going to be San Diego fans next week. GO RAVENS
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[quote name='eandb17' timestamp='1353892881' post='1233803']
With 5 Games left

So Ravens are 9-2 already and undefeated against the Division.
Pittsburgh is 6-5 and lost to Baltimore once.
Cincinnati is 6-5 and lost twice in the division, once to Baltimore.

So the Ravens are 3 games up on both teams. If the Bengals lose and we win next week I believe that we have clinched the division. I guess we are all going to be San Diego fans next week. GO RAVENS
[/quote]

If we win and Cincy loses, we clinch.
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[quote name='TreTheRaven' timestamp='1353892959' post='1233812']
If the Ravens win next week, they do win the North.
[/quote]
And probably knock PIT out of the playoff Race. All is good :)
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[quote name='Mr. Irrelevant' timestamp='1353893256' post='1233843']
And probably knock PIT out of the playoff Race. All is good :)
[/quote]

No, Pit will still be in it. After the Colts at 7-4, the AFC is a mess.
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[quote name='RavensAllTheWay' timestamp='1353893862' post='1233903']
No, Pit will still be in it. After the Colts at 7-4, the AFC is a mess.
[/quote]
We are still #2
Edit. PIT Fans no Crap jokes ok.... We have a better record than you
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[quote name='nextgen_RavensFan' timestamp='1353893939' post='1233911']
Will ben be back next week ?
[/quote]

I asked this question, earlier, and [b]Moderator 6[/b] and [b]Mr. Irrelevant [/b]simply said no. Then, [b]Moderator 3[/b] brought-up the point that, let's say the Pittsburgh Steelers "[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]had a chance to take the division", then Roethlisberger [i]should[/i] start. However, since that's not the case and it's really, really doubtful Big Ben has healed from that "unknown" injury, Charlie Batch will be the one starting.[/font][/color]
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[quote name='RavensAllTheWay' timestamp='1353893862' post='1233903']
No, Pit will still be in it. After the Colts at 7-4, the AFC is a mess.
[/quote]

The AFC is a mess, and I would love to sit back and watch it unfold knowning we have the division this early in the season.
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Well, technically there are 5 games left so the Steelers could win out and we could lose out. We only have a 3 game lead. Still, we have 3 home games left and I can't imagine we would lose all 3.
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[quote name='Moderator 3' timestamp='1353894386' post='1233941']
Well, technically there are 5 games left so the Steelers could win out and we could lose out. We only have a 3 game lead. Still, we have 3 home games left and I can't imagine we would lose all 3.
[/quote]

After next week, there would be four games left. If we won, then we would have a 4 game lead over Pit with 4 games left and 2 games up head to head. If Cincy loses as well, we'd hold a tiebreaker over them because of division record I think.
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[quote name='nextgen_RavensFan' timestamp='1353893939' post='1233911']
Will ben be back next week ?
[/quote]

IF Bens rib injury is legit, then he SHOULD NOT play next week. ( life threatening injury and all that )
I expect to see him in one of those McNair rib protectors, if he plays at all.
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If anyone's interested...

[u]A win next week and any Cincinnati loss will get the Ravens the 1st spot in the North.[/u]
If we win next week, we'll be at 10-2 with Pitt at 6-6, and 4 games left. That means they can only tie us at 10-6 with a losing head-to-head tiebreaker.

The only wrench in the plan is if us, Pitt, and Cincy have a 3-way tie at 10-6. (Since Cincy and Pitt play each other, this means Cincy must lose that game and win all others). That brings about the 3-way head-to-head tiebreaker:
Bal: 2-0 against Pitt, 1-1 against Cincy: 3-1 combined
Pitt: 0-2 against Bal, 2-0 against Cincy: 2-2 combined
Cincy: 1-1 against Bal, 0-2 against Pitt: 1-3 combined

So the Ravens still win the division.
Since Cincinnati can get to 11-5, we need them to lose at least one game. We'll win any tiebreaker against them because of division record.

[u]Any two wins in the last 5 games will clinch the North:[/u]
Worst case is if the Ravens get to 11-5 with losses to both Pitt and Cincy.
-Pitt and Cincy play each other, so one of those teams cannot win out. That means there can't be a three-way 11-5 tie.

-In the case of a head-to-head (either Pitt or Cincy), the Ravens win the tiebreaker with a now-insurmountable 4 division wins.
So the Ravens win the North if they can get to 11-5.

[u]The Ravens clinch a playoff spot with any win (except a Cincy/Pitt tie).[/u]
We know 2 wins will win the North. If the Ravens only get one win, they can be passed for the #5 wildcard spot by Indy.

-Only two AFC teams can catch the Ravens at 10-6 for the #6 wild card spot, Pitt and Cincy (6-5). One of them will win the North if we don't.
Then the Ravens compete with the loser of the Cincy-Pitt game for the #6 seed. That team has a ceiling of 10-6 to tie us.
The Ravens would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with that team.
**The only non-clinching scenario is If Pitt and Cincy tie their game and win out otherwise, each getting to 10-5-1 and passing the Ravens at 10-6.
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[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1353896652' post='1234047']
If anyone's interested...

[u]A win next week and any Cincinnati loss will get the Ravens the 1st spot in the North.[/u]
If we win next week, we'll be at 10-2 with Pitt at 6-6, and 4 games left. That means they can only tie us at 10-6 with a losing head-to-head tiebreaker.

The only wrench in the plan is if us, Pitt, and Cincy have a 3-way tie at 10-6. (Since Cincy and Pitt play each other, this means Cincy must lose that game and win all others). That brings about the 3-way head-to-head tiebreaker:
Bal: 2-0 against Pitt, 1-1 against Cincy: 3-1 combined
Pitt: 0-2 against Bal, 2-0 against Cincy: 2-2 combined
Cincy: 1-1 against Bal, 0-2 against Pitt: 1-3 combined

So the Ravens still win the division.
Since Cincinnati can get to 11-5, we need them to lose at least one game. We'll win any tiebreaker against them because of division record.

[u]Any two wins in the last 5 games will clinch the North:[/u]
Worst case is if the Ravens get to 11-5 with losses to both Pitt and Cincy.
-Pitt and Cincy play each other, so one of those teams cannot win out. That means there can't be a three-way 11-5 tie.

-In the case of a head-to-head (either Pitt or Cincy), the Ravens win the tiebreaker with a now-insurmountable 4 division wins.
So the Ravens win the North if they can get to 11-5.

[u]The Ravens clinch a playoff spot with any win (except a Cincy/Pitt tie).[/u]
We know 2 wins will win the North. If the Ravens only get one win, they can be passed for the #5 wildcard spot by Indy.

-Only two AFC teams can catch the Ravens at 10-6 for the #6 wild card spot, Pitt and Cincy (6-5). One of them will win the North if we don't.
Then the Ravens compete with the loser of the Cincy-Pitt game for the #6 seed. That team has a ceiling of 10-6 to tie us.
The Ravens would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with that team.
**The only non-clinching scenario is If Pitt and Cincy tie their game and win out otherwise, each getting to 10-5-1 and passing the Ravens at 10-6.
[/quote]
Good to know
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[quote name='eandb17' timestamp='1353892881' post='1233803']
With 5 Games left

So Ravens are 9-2 already and undefeated against the Division.
Pittsburgh is 6-5 and lost to Baltimore once.
Cincinnati is 6-5 and lost twice in the division, once to Baltimore.

So the Ravens are 3 games up on both teams. If the Bengals lose and we win next week I believe that we have clinched the division. I guess we are all going to be San Diego fans next week. GO RAVENS
[/quote] You are right on the money. With a Bengals loss and our win, we clinch! We would have won 5 of 6 Division games which neither of the other teams can match!
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Here is the official answer, yes the Ravens can clinch the AFC North with a win but we also need the Bengals to lose to the team we just beat, the San Diego Chargers.

[b]BALTIMORE RAVENS[/b]

[b]Baltimore can clinch the AFC North division with:[/b]
1) BAL win + CIN loss

[b]Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with:[/b]
1) BAL win OR
2) BAL tie + CIN loss + MIA loss or tie

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/21148044/nfl-playoff-picture-scenarios----week-13
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Ravens are already guaranteed the tie-breaker over the Bengals for the division. The worst we can wind up now is tied head to head with the Bengals and the Steelers, so it would then go to division record. We will have a better record within the division than the Bengals, because they've already lost 3 games, and we can only possibly lose 2 at this point. Therefore, we already have the tie-breaker over them locked up. For the Steelers, we could potentially both finish the season with the same record, same division record, and a head-to-head tie, so the next tie-breaker between us would go to record in common games.

We share 12 games in common with the Steelers... We have each played in 8 of those games, and the Steelers are 5-3 while we are 7-1 in our common games.

Now, in order for the Steelers to have the same division record as us, we have to lose against Cincinnati to get to 2 losses in the division (remember, we also have to lose to Pittsburgh this weekend in order to have a head-to-head tie, otherwise we win the tie-breaker just based on head-to-head), and the Steelers would have to win out in the division.

So that means the Steelers will get at least 2 more wins in the common games column (one against the Browns, one against the Bengals), and we will get at least 1 more loss (Bengals), bringing out records to 7-2 (Ravens with 3 games left to play) and 7-3 (Steelers with 2 games left to play).

That means the best the Steelers could do is 9-3, involving wins against San Diego and Dallas.
The worst the Ravens could do is 7-5, assuming losses to Giants, Redskins, and Broncos.

Therefore, in order for the Ravens to maintain a guaranteed tie-breaker over the Steelers for the division, they much either beat Pittsburgh this weekend, or they must take two out of three against the Giants, Redskins, and Broncos, which would then push it to the record within the conference tie-breaker, which we are already guaranteed to win against Pittsburgh (they already have 5 conference losses, to our 1, with only 3 conference games left for us to play, that means we can't have worse than 4 losses in the conference).

So to reiterate, if the Ravens beat the Steelers, they are guaranteed to win all tie-breaker scenarios for the division, otherwise they will have to win two of three against the Giants, Redskins, and Broncos. If they fail to do that, they would require some help from the Steelers losing common games.
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I'm thinking it's a possibility.

Here's my play-off machine scenario:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/wins/results/321202008~1~321202020~1~321202013~2~321202033~1~321209002~1~321209028~1~321210017~1~321216003~2~321216018~1~321216033~1~321216022~1~321216017~1~321217010~2~321223006~1~321223023~1~321223029~2~321223020~1~321230002~2~321230004~2~321230011~1~321230028~1~321223033~1

So what we've got here is a three-way tie between Baltimore, New England, and Houston at 13-3.

Here's how I see this happening: The Ravens can win out at home, and sweep the division for the second season in a row. That leaves us with 1 more loss, on the road in Washington, which is perfect as it's a non-conference game. Denver obviously has to fall just short at 12-4 by losing to the Ravens, but winning the rest of their remaining games.

I can see New England winning out the season. That means Houston loses one to the Patriots in Massachusetts. I also have Houston penciled in for a loss at Indianapolis, a place they have historically struggled and with a revitalized Colts team, they may struggle there again. Other than those two, they win the rest of their games as well.

That's how we get to the scenario of a 3-way tie at 13-3, which would surprisingly lead to a tie-breaker scenario where the Ravens come out with the #1 Seed, the Patriots the #2 Seed, and the Texans the #3 Seed.
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I'm still angry over the fact that Houston should have lost on Thanksgiving. They played sloppy and are definitely not the same team that routed us.
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The possibility is certainly there. It feels weird rooting for the Pats against Houston, but if it helps our seeding I suppose I'm for it. However, i just cant see Houston losing to Indy.
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If we are tied at 13-3 with the texans, they win the head-to-head based off of their week seven victory over us... thus, wouldn't they be the one seed?
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Houston has been due for a loss for a while. They've played sloppily. Is it realistic for us to get the first seed? I doubt it. We'll need a boat load of help. But, second seed is right within our grasp.
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[quote name='PurpleandBlackBlood' timestamp='1354043524' post='1235892']
If we are tied at 13-3 with the texans, they win the head-to-head based off of their week seven victory over us... thus, wouldn't they be the one seed?
[/quote]
Hence the whole post talking of a 3-way tie..

Head to head doesn't matter in a 3-way tie
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[quote name='BMORElegacy' timestamp='1354042785' post='1235880']
I'm still angry over the fact that Houston should have lost on Thanksgiving. They played sloppy and are definitely not the same team that routed us.
[/quote]

They are the same team that routed the Ravens imo. Look at the Texans as a whole and they might not be as unimpressively successful as the Ravens, but they aren't as dominant as people make them out to be.

That 21-9 victory over Buffalo wasnt very impressive, the Bears game would have probably been a lose with Cutler staying in the game, Jets could have beaten them and the last 3 weeks probably could have been losses. But they are finding a way to win and i salute that.

However, i strongly feel they routed the Ravens because they kicked this team while they were at their lowest. Emotionally worn down with so much death, big games, and short rest over the first half of the season. Also the Texans and their fans were chargered up to beat the Ravens for the first time in Franchise history, no matter depleted the Ravens were.

Then you go back and watch that game..the defense wasnt playing nearly as good as they are now, Schuab threw at least 3be balls that would have been picks, but his WRs made tremendous catches. Reed had a easy pick 6, but the TE made a great 1 handed attempt. Even the batted balls bounced right for the Texans in that game.

I think the rematch would be much different, regardless where its played
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[quote name='PurpleandBlackBlood' timestamp='1354043524' post='1235892']
If we are tied at 13-3 with the texans, they win the head-to-head based off of their week seven victory over us... thus, wouldn't they be the one seed?
[/quote]

[quote name='codizzle' timestamp='1354043615' post='1235895']
Hence the whole post talking of a 3-way tie..

Head to head doesn't matter in a 3-way tie
[/quote]

Well, technically head-to-head does matter, but only if one of the teams has beaten both other teams (which in this scenario, they wouldn't have.)
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[quote name='terpsnation' timestamp='1354043991' post='1235904']
Well, technically head-to-head does matter, but only if one of the teams has beaten both other teams (which in this scenario, they wouldn't have.)
[/quote]

got it
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Ted Marchbroda, when coaching the Colts, lost a game to the Lions, on purpose.

It put the team in a three way tie for the division, and they won the tie breaker . It is what good head coaches do.
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Texans still Ned to play the Patriots and Niners. They could easily lose both. That would mean we would need to win out though and I don't see that happening but who knows. Ideally maybe a team like the Broncos knocks them out if we can secure the #2 spot and when the rest of the games go through Baltimore. Would be a lot more confident then, especially with how the defense is playing and how much smoother the offense runs at home. Everything seems to be working out well. Players are getting healthy and we are winning. I think when McPhee comes back we will see the Pernell of last year which will add to a pass rush that is beginning to heat up. Jimmy should also be back come playoff time.
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I think it is.....if we maintain the one game at a time focus and stop the Cam ball crap! It doesn't have to be extreme super shotgun every play or ground and pound every play....some true balance and execution i.e. not dropping balls, penalties, etc. and we have a very good chance. I think we have a great shot at the #1 seed. If we do.....NFL watch out.
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