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2012 Playoff Scenarios Discussion


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#1 callahan09

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:44 AM

I know it's a bit early, but why not talk Playoff Scenarios now.

Currently, the playoff seeding is as follows:

CONF RK AFC W L T PCT DIV CONF SOS SOV REASON
1 Houston 8 1 0 .889 2-0-0 7-0-0 .500 .480 AFC South Champ
2 Baltimore 7 2 0 .778 3-0-0 6-1-0 .407 .349 AFC North Champ
3 New England 6 3 0 .667 3-0-0 5-1-0 .488 .430 AFC East Champ
Wins tie break over Denver based on head-to-head win percentage.
4 Denver 6 3 0 .667 2-0-0 4-2-0 .556 .426 AFC West Champ
5 Indianapolis 6 3 0 .667 2-1-0 4-2-0 .405 .404 Wins tie break over Pittsburgh based on best win percentage in conference games.
6 Pittsburgh 6 3 0 .667 1-0-0 3-3-0 .398 .364

As it is right now, Pittsburgh and Baltimore would not meet in the playoffs unless it was the AFC Championship Game. Pittsburgh would have to beat New England and Houston on the road in order to get there, and then they'd be playing us in Baltimore. We'd have to defeat either Denver or Indianapolis in Baltimore in order to get there. Indianapolis would be playing in Denver during Wild Card week, with a rookie QB on the road, it seems likely we'd be set for Denver in Baltimore in order to get to the AFCCG.

But this is all besides the point, because the picture might not look like this after this week's games. But the teams will remain the same: it is impossible for any other team besides these 6 to be in position for a playoff spot after this week's games (because no other team has more than 4 wins right now). The only seed guaranteed to stay the same is Houston at #1.

Here are some possibilities: First of all, if Pittsburgh wins, the Ravens are then going to become a wild card team, and Pittsburgh will take over the division, despite a tied 7-3 record for each team, because of division record advantage. We would be guaranteed the 5th seed, since the other wild card team would still be Indianapolis at the 6th seed, since the best they could do is tie us with a 7-3 record by beating New England, but we would win the conference record tie breaker.

So as the 5th seed, we would be playing the 4th seed, which would either be Pittsburgh, New England, or Denver. If Denver loses to San Diego, it's definitely Denver. The only way it would be Pittsburgh is if both New England and Denver win. If Denver wins and New England loses, it would be New England.

So that about covers the scenarios where Pittsburgh wins.

What about if we win?

We would still be in at #2, with Houston at #1 even if they lost their game, because we lost the head-to-head game against them.

Pittsburgh would be guaranteed to stay as the 6th seed, since Indianapolis is still assured the other wild card spot, and they'd have a better conference record than Pittsburgh, thus securing the 5th seed, whether they lose to New England or not. So if we win in Pittsburgh, the playoff picture remains almost identical to what it looks like right now, with all 6 of the same teams remaining in the picture, and 4 of the 6 guaranteed to keep their same seed spot. The only thing that could change is whether New England or Denver switch the 3rd and 4th seed spots, which would only happen if New England loses, and Denver wins.

So to summarize, if we win in Pittsburgh, the playoff picture will remain entirely unchanged unless New England loses and Denver wins, in which case they will swap the 3rd and 4th seeds. Pretty interesting.

If we lose in Pittsburgh, every seed but the #1 can be switched around, but no matter what no different teams will enter the picture.

Edited by callahan09, 16 November 2012 - 10:29 AM.

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#2 JO_75

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:49 AM

Great Breakdown of the playoff picture!
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#3 Ngata Chance

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:35 PM

Wow, +1 for the huge effort. Thanks! Great post.
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That seems like it was worded wrong...

#4 JO_75

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 01:24 PM

It is unbelievable that every playoff team has 6 or more wins and the next closest is 4 wins. That just shows how weak the AFC is this year. I have to say though, if the Steelers lose Ben for a good amount of time they could fall out and someone else could get in.
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#5 Guest_Mr. Nobody_*

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 01:26 PM

all this won't matter as we're going 14-2 and get home field advantage throughout
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#6 arnie_uk

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 05:44 PM

all this won't matter as we're going 14-2 and get home field advantage throughout

who do out propose beats texas
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#7 JO_75

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 06:37 PM

who do out propose beats texas


I can see the Patriots beating them and the Colts I think can sneak one out and steal a victory from the Texans.
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#8 GrimCoconut

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 08:48 PM

I can see the Patriots beating them and the Colts I think can sneak one out and steal a victory from the Texans.

Know a team I think that can beat the Texans if their QB is healthy? The Steelers. Their offense is practically perfect for the Texans. I also think they can stop Houston's ground game. That is, if the Steelers make the playoffs and go to Houston to play.

Nice thread, btw. Thanks for your time & effort.

Edited by GrimCoconut, 16 November 2012 - 08:49 PM.

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#9 Guest_Mr. Nobody_*

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 03:16 AM

I can see the Patriots beating them and the Colts I think can sneak one out and steal a victory from the Texans.


this
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#10 flaccopoe

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 03:30 AM

I expect PIT's QB loss will push them over the edge of the playoff picture and it's a longshot, like MIA. Wouldn't be surprised if IND lost a game here and there down the stretch to fall to the 6th seed.
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Honestly, I am surprised that you (Poe) got second. After the draft I thought your team was doomed for failure.

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#11 arnie_uk

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 04:08 AM

Know a team I think that can beat the Texans if their QB is healthy? The Steelers. Their offense is practically perfect for the Texans. I also think they can stop Houston's ground game. That is, if the Steelers make the playoffs and go to Houston to play.

Nice thread, btw. Thanks for your time & effort.

well considering I asked the question in reply to a post about us getting home field advantage, your point is moot.
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#12 GrimCoconut

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 08:29 AM

well considering I asked the question in reply to a post about us getting home field advantage, your point is moot.

Oh, I know. I was more referring to the playoffs. But we could still have homefield throughout if we were the #2 seed, PIT goes to HOU and beats them.

Also, another team could surprise us. I would go with NE & IND as the two teams capable of beating them in the regular season. Then again, some surprise team could do it. It's just unlikely.
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#13 callahan09

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Posted 19 November 2012 - 09:50 AM

And the AFC playoff seeding remains completely unchanged after Week 11, with the only significant change to the overall playoff picture being that Cincinnati is just a little bit closer to entering the playoffs now.

Prior to this week, there was no possibility for the teams in the playoff picture to change after this week's games. That has changed a little, following this week's events, but not by much:

If the Bengals win against Oakland, and the Steelers lose against the Browns in Week 12, then the Bengals take over the 6th seed.

There are a number of scenarios that can develop to change up the seeding of the division winners, but no division winner will lose their spot atop their division next week.
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#14 callahan09

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Posted 19 November 2012 - 09:51 AM

Side note: only 2 divisions in the AFC have more than 1 team at .500 or better: The south has the Texans and the Colts, and the North has the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals. This is guaranteed to remain true even after Week 12, and in fact the Bengals could go under .500, make it just the Steelers and Colts with .500+ records among non-division leaders.

Edited by callahan09, 19 November 2012 - 09:52 AM.

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#15 JO_75

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Posted 19 November 2012 - 11:52 AM

who do out propose beats texas


Almost Jacksonville lol.
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#16 flaccopoe

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Posted 19 November 2012 - 12:21 PM

And the AFC playoff seeding remains completely unchanged after Week 11, with the only significant change to the overall playoff picture being that Cincinnati is just a little bit closer to entering the playoffs now.
If the Bengals win against Oakland, and the Steelers lose against the Browns in Week 12, then the Bengals take over the 6th seed.


Indeed! I fully expect PIT to lose next Sunday at Brown Stadium. PIT's offense is falling while CLE's offense is rising. Weeden is getting better every week and his receiving corps is growing with him. Trent Richardson can provide a boost whenever the passing game hits a bump and Phil Dawson is one of the NFL's best security blankets.
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Honestly, I am surprised that you (Poe) got second. After the draft I thought your team was doomed for failure.

You get used to it. Even posts that don't violate the rules aren't safe.

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#17 Ben_7toBrown_84

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 08:04 PM

If the Bengals win against Oakland, and the Steelers lose against the Browns in Week 12, then the Bengals take over the 6th seed.


Not true. Even if the Steelers lose in Cleveland and the Bengals win against Oakland the Steelers and Bengals would have the same record at 6-5 but the Steelers would still be the 6th seed over the Bengals because they beat them in Cincinnati last month and currently own the head to head tiebraker over them.
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#18 Ben_7toBrown_84

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 08:08 PM

Indeed! I fully expect PIT to lose next Sunday at Brown Stadium. PIT's offense is falling while CLE's offense is rising. Weeden is getting better every week and his receiving corps is growing with him. Trent Richardson can provide a boost whenever the passing game hits a bump and Phil Dawson is one of the NFL's best security blankets.

I think the Browns will give the Steelers all they can handle especially with Charlie Batch being the QB,but I still expect the Steelers to find a way to win a tough close game. The Browns have played hard all year but they always seem to make 1 or 2 huge mistakes at the end of the game that ends up costing them. Weeden has improved throughout the year but he can be an INT and turnover machine at times and I expect the Steelers defense to create a bunch of turnovers at key points in this game. The Steelers will win this game and they wont be going away that easily just yet they never do...
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#19 K-Dog

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 08:54 PM

I would NOT be surprised in the least to see Pitts-burgh loose to Cleveland.
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#20 callahan09

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Posted 20 November 2012 - 09:15 PM

Not true. Even if the Steelers lose in Cleveland and the Bengals win against Oakland the Steelers and Bengals would have the same record at 6-5 but the Steelers would still be the 6th seed over the Bengals because they beat them in Cincinnati last month and currently own the head to head tiebraker over them.


Thanks for the correction!
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