Phil Simms: Run First Offense Hurts Flacco

[atljbo]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1342460527' post='1098709']
No, but you said that those winners didn't have a top-teir D, and I merely pointed out that quite a few of them, in fact, had top-10 defenses - in fact, Aaron Rodger's team finished 2nd in the league in total defense in 2010 and TWO of Brady's defenses were top 2 in the league when he won. And I would strongly disagree on scoring points as the criteria for putting someone in the elite category. Trust me, I lived through THAT debacle in 2001 after we signed Elvis Grbac. in 2000, only Jeff Garcia, Peyton Manning, and Kurt Warner threw for more yards, only those 3 and Donte Culpepper had more passing TDs, and none of those three threw fewer interceptions. He made the probowl, and threw for 7500 yards and 50 TDs in 1999 and 2000 - then he came to Baltimore and played worse than Dilfer had the year before. You have to look at the teams around them and the competition they face, and how they fared head to head. Flacco played 13 of 18 games against defenses ranked in the top 10 in passing in 2011, including twice against the Texans. And he did it with a receiver and two tight ends who had exactly ZERO NFL starts between them going into the season. An elite quarterback, to me, [b]MAKES PLAYS against the best CONSISTENTLY[/b]. Flacco is not elite because he hasn't shown me that consistency, but he has made a lot of plays in 4 years.
[/quote]

I agree with that 1000% ... We are agreeing on the end result... We are just getting there a different way... To me thats what makes a QB elite.... Regardless of the D they play or the way they D play... You know they will most likely be in any game (aka [b]CONSISTENTLY) [/b]

[PeRK82]

[quote name='BALTIMOREFLACCO' timestamp='1342322766' post='1098287']
Via Rotoworld:



Interesting stuff. I do wish we incorporated more spread considering Flacco is a spread QB. Thoughts??????????
[/quote]

Been saying from day one, Flacco needs to throw it more and definitely do alot more Spread Offense. The Bunch formation worked like magic early in the preseason and beginning of last season and we stop for no reason what so ever. Im still wondering why Cam stopped.

[Ravenslifer]

[quote name='PeRK82' timestamp='1342473107' post='1099093']
Been saying from day one, Flacco needs to throw it more and definitely do alot more Spread Offense. The Bunch formation worked like magic early in the preseason and beginning of last season and we stop for no reason what so ever. Im still wondering why Cam stopped.
[/quote]

Granted D-Will was always hurt, Stalls was always hurt, and Doss/Williams were rookies, but in the last 3 seasons our number 4 receivers have caught 14 passes combined.

[Dudeman]

I think at the end of the day people need to understand that the over-all team, and individual stats are a reflection of coaching gameplans. If the game plan is to give Ray Rice 20-30 touches between the pass and the run, then he is usually going to turn that into 150+ yards from scrimmage. Furthermore, a 100 yards on the ground is going to take a lot more time off the clock than 100 yards through the air.

The point being that the run game is designed to help the defense. The passing game is always going to be the eye popping number especially when teams are planning to pass a lot more than they run (and especially if you play fantasy football). Lastly, the division you play in can help dictate the way you design an offense. We play in a division with secondaries that were no worse than 9th against the pass last year. Part of that number can be attributed to having no indoor stadiums. But greater credit goes to the draft strategy within the division that has been driven by the defensive side of the ball for years. Again no division in the NFL had every secondary playing at a top 5 level most of the year. Imagine if Cincy didn't lose Joseph! Imagine playing in the NFC north where the best secondary ended up being 22 over-all!

So in sum Flacco's numbers should be compared to Qb's from within the divison. We have a great running team, we play against great defensive backfields, and we do what we can to limit defensive snaps. The Ravens simply are not going to abandon the run which has become so in vogue with so many teams. My final question would be; which QB from our division would you want on your team? Rothlisberger has had numerous off-field issues, and has had a lot of lucky breaks. I know I'd pick up Joe every time, win, lose, or draw.

Simms is right by all accounts, and I am happy to have Flacco on board. Now it's time to pay the man!

[callahan09]

[quote name='Suggs Package' timestamp='1342408050' post='1098523']
I think Phil is right regarding not only Flacco, but every above average QB in the NFL in a run-first offense. Simply, passing the ball is more efficient than running (Flacco: 6.7 Yards per passing attempt; Rice: 4.7 yards per rushing attempt). If you have a somewhat capable QB, you should be throwing it most of the time. In today's NFL, you should only use a run-first offense if your QB sucks, is turnover prone, or if your QB scrambles like Vick/Newton/etc.
[/quote]

Decided to run some numbers on this and what I wound up coming up with is that you're likely to gain about 47% more yards per passing play than per rushing play, about 48% more likely to score a touchdown, and about 94% more likely to turn the ball over.

[Suggs Package]

[quote name='callahan09' timestamp='1342543996' post='1099645']
Decided to run some numbers on this and what I wound up coming up with is that you're likely to gain about 47% more yards per passing play than per rushing play, about 48% more likely to score a touchdown, and about 94% more likely to turn the ball over.
[/quote]

That turnover rate is alarming; you'd want the increase in TDs to at least be the same as the increase in turnovers, but its hard to quantify something like that especially since we don't know how much of that additional yardage will lead to scores.

Also our passing offense is inefficient by nature, depending on bombs, which clashes against the short passing game of the modern NFL. Even still, Ray Rice is good, but not Barry Sanders 1997 good and we'll be better off leaning on Flacco more.

I found a chart a while back showing the efficiency of the passing and running offense by team. Most teams were more efficient passing the ball than running it. Only a few teams were better off being a run first offense. Here is the link: [url="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/identity-crisis.html.%20%20Although"]http://www.advancedn...html.��Although[/url] this is from the middle of the year, the Ravens finished .16 Pass EPA/P and .02 Run EPA/P meaning we're better at passing the ball than running it [url="http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php?year=2011&season=reg"]at the end of 2011[/url].

[gabefergy]

I was listening to mike and mike this morning and they talked about Flacco a pretty good amount. Both think Flacco is a good QB who has a chance to be elite if he can perform more consistently ( no more Jax games). One point that Greenberg brought up was something I agree wholeheartedly with. He talked about how difficult it is to complete a high percentage of passes when those passes often come on 3rd and long. Baltimore threw on first down only 58% ish of the time which was 16th most in the NFL. Meanwhile teams like NO and Det threw close 70% of the time. That does make a difference. I just find it interesting that there are a lot of ppl/analysts out there who realize how good Flacco is.

[black blood purple passion]

Cam Cameron hurts Flacco I don't care what anyone says. Look at Brees and Rivers before and after Cam. Get an OC in here who runs a spread type offence. We have the receiving talent to run one.

[ellicottraven]

Sooner rather than later, we need to catch up with the rest of the league in terms of passing philosophy. I was listening to Aaron Rodgers on the NFL network last night, and it seemed to me he honestly believed that he would rather not have a strong run game or that it didn't matter since the league is evolving into a pass happy league. If that is so, then we need to evolve and let Flacco loose!

[PurpleReign92]

When Rex Ryan sets up a run 1st offense in New York with "Thomlinson and Greene" nobody has anything to say and when we do the same with Pierce and Rice people expect is to get all pass happy all of a sudden...

[arnie_uk]

[quote name='PurpleReign92' timestamp='1342803841' post='1101171']
When Rex Ryan sets up a run 1st offense in New York with "Thomlinson and Greene" nobody has anything to say and when we do the same with Pierce and Rice people expect is to get all pass happy all of a sudden...
[/quote]oh dear...

[scrock]

I been saying this forever, what also hurt Joe last year was dropped passes of course but also he had rookie WRs and 2nd year TEs with no playing experience, that is why I expect Joe to light it up this year....career year on the way

[PolishRifle]

The more I see of the "new" Flacco (aka the Flacco that is allowed to take more control over the offense and air it out more often), the more Phil Simms words ring true to me.

[cursona pirate]

[quote name='The Raven' timestamp='1342397678' post='1098477']
I wish we could put Flacco on the Saints for a year. Let him have the offensive line, running backs, and receiving threats that Brees has. Let him play the soft and sorry defenses that Brees plays against. I guarantee you that Flacco would make a killing with that supporting cast and against those defenses. Not to take anything away from Brees, but I completely doubt he would have had as great a season if he had Flacco's offense and played in the AFC North.
[/quote]
I totally agree. Flacco plays hard defenses and still wins and when we play poopier teams he is usually very good via Rams last year.

[cursona pirate]

[quote name='scrock' timestamp='1342823113' post='1101369']
I been saying this forever, what also hurt Joe last year was dropped passes of course but also he had rookie WRs and 2nd year TEs with no playing experience, that is why I expect Joe to light it up this year....career year on the way
[/quote]
Your back!!!!!
I agree with you too!

[Xelfer]

[quote name='The King' timestamp='1342342839' post='1098311']
It seems like an obvious point, but I think the degree of confidence Phil Simms shows in Flacco is pretty impressive. He's not just saying that Flacco's numbers would be better, but that they would be "staggering." The Ravens simply ask less of him than he is capable of delivering, and in games like the AFC Championship we can clearly see the way he could carry the team.

Phil Simms knows a bit about being a great QB, and especially an accurate one. If he says Flacco makes great throws I'd be apt to believe him.
[/quote]

These are very serios points made by Simms, I realize everyone was/is not a fan of his, however, Simms was/is a VERY accomplished QB and I beleive in his eye. The game the fellow above failed to mention, was against Pittsburg, Flaco WON that game with his arm . . . breaking out T. Smith to the forefront, which is a beautiful thing. These two guys are going to do many many beautiful plays together! Throw Jones in there, man the speed these guys bring is awesome, and can only help Rice open his game up.

I've been waiting for our offence to go to the air. By the way, I MUST remind everyone of Bolden, I think his hard style is PERFECT to compliment the speedsters & Rice. Trust, after what Flaco did to Pitt, NO team takes him for granted, if they do, they will lose.

PS - Call me crazy, but I took Flaco on my Fantasy Teams & have NO doubt he's a sleeper this year. Cam is gonna let him loose, he can't hold back greatness!

[3-4ravdef509]

[quote name='Xelfer' timestamp='1346000813' post='1130049']


These are very serios points made by Simms, I realize everyone was/is not a fan of his, however, Simms was/is a VERY accomplished QB and I beleive in his eye. The game the fellow above failed to mention, was against Pittsburg, Flaco WON that game with his arm . . . breaking out T. Smith to the forefront, which is a beautiful thing. These two guys are going to do many many beautiful plays together! Throw Jones in there, man the speed these guys bring is awesome, and can only help Rice open his game up.

I've been waiting for our offence to go to the air. By the way, I MUST remind everyone of Bolden, I think his hard style is PERFECT to compliment the speedsters & Rice. Trust, after what Flaco did to Pitt, NO team takes him for granted, if they do, they will lose.
[/quote]

People keep on telling me about Bolden and this Torray....

[Xelfer]

[quote name='3-4ravdef509' timestamp='1346001570' post='1130070']
People keep on telling me about Bolden and this Torray....
[/quote]
What does that even mean, sorry, I must have missed something. Stay on topic. Subject was Flaco

[cobrajet]

Run Run Pass = Three and out

Unleash Flacco and roll to the playoffs. I have no problem with Rice getting his touches through the air. And for Vonta, the guy can protect Joe any day of the week for me and catch a TD pass like in preseason. He can be Joe's new enforcer like LeRon used to be.

[1/28/01]

[quote name='cobrajet' timestamp='1346005035' post='1130182']
Run Run Pass = Three and out

Unleash Flacco and roll to the playoffs. I have no problem with Rice getting his touches through the air. And for Vonta, the guy can protect Joe any day of the week for me and catch a TD pass like in preseason. He can be Joe's new enforcer like LeRon used to be.
[/quote]

McClain and enforcer should not be in the same sentence...

[hawkprey]

We should have a Manning-style base offense. Throw first, check to running play when Joe sees fit. Just make sure Joe doesn't abandon it, because he'll throw every down if he could.

I think the "dumpoff" (as everyone likes to call it) game to Ray Rice and Leach should replace some of our running downs.

Until we get to that time of the game when we can just run the ball over and over to drain the clock, we should see a lot of passes. I'm thinking 25 passes in the first halves of games and 10-15 in the second.

[black blood purple passion]

BAHAHAHA finally!!!! Hallelujah! A professional is supporting Flacco, I never thought I'd see the day!

[Pino]

all of you are missing the Balance, and unfortunately, maybe the coaches are too.

we CAN be pass first (even though i was initially against it), as long as we RUN LATER.
we absolutely must not become those popular passing teams (saints, pats, packers) whose survival depends on being the last one standing in a shootout. that is to say, we MUST NOT become that passing team without an intimidating defense.

Defense is who we are! That is this generation's Baltimore football. And becoming like the rest of the league is compromising our long standing tradition. Ask yourself if you'd be happy with winning a Super Bowl by conforming or copying the rest. Personally that would disgust me. I don't want to just win championships, I want us to be known as the best there ever was. That's why 2000 was so satisfying, and still respected by every NFL fan.

HOWEVER, I'm not saying that a pass-first offense is a traumatic change. we just need to be sure to be responsible. the problem with pass-first teams is the pace and speed of the game. passing often will mean frequent drops and stoppages of the clock, creating a much longer game in real time for the defense. ultimately, that's why pass-first teams have terrible defense (in general). we just have to remember to play fast for the early lead, then come back to running and smart game clock management.

Pass first, run later. Balance.

[PolishRifle]

[quote name='Pino' timestamp='1346042636' post='1130817']
all of you are missing the Balance, and unfortunately, maybe the coaches are too.

we CAN be pass first (even though i was initially against it), as long as we RUN LATER.
[/quote]

Everyone seems to panic, because of this incomming change. Ground and pound and slowly running up the field, left us with very close games, that were down to one play sometimes and we all know how these situations end up playing out.
Nobody is completely forgetting about the run. We wouldn't have signed Ray Rice for that huge contract, if that were the case.

Pass first to set up the run. That is probably what we will end up doing. I will be happy, when we stop using Rice as a battering ram.

[Malkavian Raven]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]"You must be willing to sacrifice what you are for what you will become." -- Eric Thomas[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]I think everyone will agree, what we saw in Jacksonville was pretty impressive, when it works. The Ravens had 48 pass attempts to 26 rush attempts. Now, is that considered a pass-heavy team? Maybe to some.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Granted, the run game keeps the defense off the field and keeps them rested. However, the pass game (as long as it continues to work) will create separation on the scoreboard which will allow our defense to go out and play very aggressively because if they slip up, they've got an offense that can score at will.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]Am I saying we need to turn into the Packers? Oh, heck no. I would never want to be a Top-5 Offense with the 32nd Ranked defense. Not in Baltimore. I'm looking more for a Top-10 Offense & a Top-5 Defense.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]I don't know. I'm just rambling now. People just cannot be afraid of change.[/i][/font]

[font=trebuchet ms,helvetica,sans-serif][i]~ Malkavian Raven[/i][/font]

[Tank 92]

I hope, and don't think we will become a "pass first" offense. We need to become a "go with what is working at the time" offense and adjust on the fly to the situation.

I don't buy into the the whole offensive identity deal. The offense has to remain unpredictable to succeed in our division and through the post season. Most of the defenses we will face are too talented to think that we could just pass, pass, pass our way to victories. Knowing we can run or pass with efficiency will keep the opposing D honest and give us the best chance to win any game.

Having the talent and abilities(and play calling!) to have a truly balanced attack is where I hope we are. That offense will be a lot of fun to watch and will take the Ravens where they want to go.

[3-4ravdef509]

As I've heard fly call it, a pick your poison type of offense is what we should be. You want Flacco, Rice, or our defense to.beat you? Answer, combo of all three as the game progresses.