First Round

[The King]

I was just hoping to start some discussion about different strategies people use with their first round pick. I know that it used to be strictly a RBs round, but with the way the game has evolved that has changed a lot. Personally, I still prefer to go RB in general, partially because I have a hard time changing my ways and partially because I still think QBs are a bit less valuable in the first round as far as separation from the pack.

However, recently I've been trying to broaden my thoughts on the matter. I even hear arguments for a Gronkowski or a Calvin Johnson in deeper leagues.

I'd love to hear if anyone here thinks of a WR in the first round as a smart move, or how early you might be willing to take a QB.

[Ed_Reed20]

It really depends on where you're picking. The rise in overall passing, back-field committee and a good number of workhorse RBs facing injury or durability questions means taking RBs early isn't a must.

A WR late in the first round (Megatron and Larry are the only ones I'd be comfortable with taking) is definitely a smart move.

As for QBs, I like to wait. But if I sense a run on them is coming, I might take one as early as the third.

[gabefergy]

It does depend on depth of the league and what position you are picking, but I think I am leaning more towards QB this year. If I can get an Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees I think they are in an upper tier that is far superior than the rest IMO. QB is also a more consistent scoring position and generally speaking has less injury risk than RB.

[Mt. Crushmore]

Classified info.

[Sizzlebshu]

I hope ppl reach for qbs in the first. At this point the only qb Id take in the first is Brady. Reason being is the potential for a record breaking season is there with the addition of lloyd and removal of the law firm to that offense. Last season qbs went wild. We had 3 5000 yard passers and several guys get close to that mark after no one came close for years. What does that tell you? Last year was an outlier year. To sum it up, don't expect brees, rodgers etc... to put up the insane numbers they put up. I believe the difference between Aaron rodgers 2 years ago and aaron rodgers last year was almost 100 fantasy points. (291 2010, 385 2011 I believe). The quality of defenses that these teams will face also increases dramatically this year.

As for me If I am playing in a ppr type league and I see that this is possible this would ideally be my strategy. The format is qb rb rb wr wr te flex k dst

Depending on where I am picking (this strategy assumes worst case and I am picking at the end or towards the end of the round) I will take Gronkowski and Graham and play one of them in my flex.

My reasoning - All of the rbs at the back end of the round are unproven or have some huge risk attached. Id rather avoid those and grab 2 consistent backs (ie not big point scorers but no injury risks and feature guys like redman, greene, or bradshaw, bush) later. Great value at qb can be gotten later and WR is insanely deep this year

[codizzle]

[quote name='Mt. Crushmore' timestamp='1342229841' post='1098084']
Classified info.
[/quote]
I'm taking Brett favre

[Mt. Crushmore]

[quote name='codizzle' timestamp='1342530156' post='1099476']
I'm taking Brett favre
[/quote]

Don't forget about Stover.

[codizzle]

[quote name='Mt. Crushmore' timestamp='1342536340' post='1099531']


Don't forget about Stover.
[/quote]
Haha I've actually taken him in every mock I've done so far

[Mt. Crushmore]

[quote name='codizzle' timestamp='1342539094' post='1099573']
Haha I've actually taken him in every mock I've done so far
[/quote]

Why not, he could pull a Brett Favre.

[PuRock]

I still think RBs are the most important in the first round. There aren't many RBs who qualify as workhorse guys. But for WR's TE's and QB's, the class is deep. RBs hit a steep cliff pretty fast. You want to make sure you grab one of those guys. QB by committee, WR by committee and TE by committees will be much more effective this year than in past years. So if you miss out on a top guy, it isn't the end of the world. There is great value at all of those positions late in the draft.

I've done about 20 mock drafts so far this year and every time I take a QB in the first round I hate my team. I'm constantly reaching for RBs and my whole team suffers.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1342562128' post='1099797']
I still think RBs are the most important in the first round. There aren't many RBs who qualify as workhorse guys. But for WR's TE's and QB's, the class is deep. RBs hit a steep cliff pretty fast. You want to make sure you grab one of those guys. QB by committee, WR by committee and TE by committees will be much more effective this year than in past years. So if you miss out on a top guy, it isn't the end of the world. There is great value at all of those positions late in the draft.

I've done about 20 mock drafts so far this year and every time I take a QB in the first round I hate my team. I'm constantly reaching for RBs and my whole team suffers.
[/quote]

in 14 team draft tho or even a 16 team draft not everyone will get a decent rb. Instead of reaching for an injury prone or mediocre rb it may be better to just go for a different position.

[Ravenslifer]

I don't spend too much time on it, but I usually try to nab a QB or wide receiver - Aaron Rodgers is a lock if he's on the board, because 1) he can make plays with his arm and his legs, and 2) the defenses in his division are pretty weak, so I feel he's almost guaranteed to put up good numbers on a weekly basis. The recipe to me is finding an elite offensive player with a weak defense (so they are forced to play a lot) facing a weak field. Rodgers was that guy last year. But I don't think you could go wrong with Brees or Brady either. I try to avoid guys I know are prone to mistakes, like Philip Rivers or Michael Vick or, sadly, our own Joe, unless it's a late round. Last year I got Rodgers in the first and Roddy White (who always seems overlooked to me) in the second. I wait until 3rd round or later on a RB - you can usually find a pretty good one that late.

[PuRock]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1342659202' post='1100431']
in 14 team draft tho or even a 16 team draft not everyone will get a decent rb. Instead of reaching for an injury prone or mediocre rb it may be better to just go for a different position.
[/quote]

I agree you shouldn't reach. Its not like I have all RBs rated in the top 12 picks overall. Actually in my top 12 I have 7 rbs, 3 Qbs, and 2 Wrs.

I'm just saying when push comes to shove. I'm taking Foster, Rice, Mccoy before Rodgers. I'm taking MJD, Mathews, CJ (Iffy - awaiting TC) before Brees/Brady. Because I value RBs more in the first round. The drop off in production between a 1st Round RB and any round thereafter is the greatest for a position.

If I miss out on Rodgers/Brees/Brady. I can feel good about a combo like Ryan (8th/9th) and Palmer (11th).

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1342707664' post='1100605']
I agree you shouldn't reach. Its not like I have all RBs rated in the top 12 picks overall. Actually in my top 12 I have 7 rbs, 3 Qbs, and 2 Wrs.

I'm just saying when push comes to shove. I'm taking Foster, Rice, Mccoy before Rodgers. I'm taking MJD, Mathews, CJ (Iffy - awaiting TC) before Brees/Brady. Because I value RBs more in the first round. The drop off in production between a 1st Round RB and any round thereafter is the greatest for a position.

If I miss out on Rodgers/Brees/Brady. I can feel good about a combo like Ryan (8th/9th) and Palmer (11th).
[/quote]
Id disagree. Rodgers is a consistent stud. He consistently outscores an average qb by 5-10 points and unlike rbs, qbs like rodgers very rarely have games where they give you nothing (see Cam Cameron and Rice)

[BMOREHAWAII]

[quote name='codizzle' timestamp='1342539094' post='1099573']
Haha I've actually taken him in every mock I've done so far
[/quote]
Your one of those guys.
I usually leave right after that happens, no sense in doing a mock if it isn't a replica of what would realy happen..

[codizzle]

[quote name='BMOREHAWAII' timestamp='1342822768' post='1101365']

Your one of those guys.
I usually leave right after that happens, no sense in doing a mock if it isn't a replica of what would realy happen..
[/quote]
Lol hardly.. I'll draft for real rounds 1-14 but when we get to 15 I choose a kicker.. It just happens to be Matt stover

[BMOREHAWAII]

[quote name='codizzle' timestamp='1342875973' post='1101501']
Lol hardly.. I'll draft for real rounds 1-14 but when we get to 15 I choose a kicker.. It just happens to be Matt stover
[/quote]'
Oh i see, i thought we were on the whole "first round" subject i was like oh man. Not another lets have a fun draft and draft a kicker in the first kinda guy. LOL my bad.

[black blood purple passion]

[quote name='Mt. Crushmore' timestamp='1342229841' post='1098084']
Classified info.
[/quote]


my thoughts exactly, never know when one of you may end up in one of my leagues....wouldn't want to give the enemy any advantages!

[jonas winslo]

So hard not to be a homer in my league. Rodgers is sure fire though.

[Gordo52]

Look up a strategy called "VORP".

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1344042469' post='1109699']
Look up a strategy called "VORP".
[/quote]
Im a big believer in value over replacement, but its only one variable to consider.

[Gordo52]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1344042746' post='1109704']
Im a big believer in value over replacement, but its only one variable to consider.
[/quote]
That's true, still if you're picking late in the 1st it's useful.

I just learned about it, I can't wait to use it in my primary league. They won't know what hit em.

[usmccharles]

i think value is the key, getting guys where you dont have to reach. im going to look into this vorp strategy, have a link on a good article?