ESPN Fantasy Football 2012

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345062614' post='1119855']


If you wana look at a high octane offense lets look at the saints. No one wide receiver is an amazing fantasy own there.

With the packers you have Jennings and Jordy. But who would picked Jordy to out produce Jennings. Even still you look at a per game basis. Jennings gave you what you expected. Multiple reception for high yards. Jordy was a freak tho. If you look at his per game numbers, some weeks you ended very very lucky. There were some weeks where he gave you almost nothing, while others he had a reception that fortunately went for a long gain and a td. Just to supplement the deep threat target a little more, the majority of the time he was getting 4 completions or less. Lets not forget tho, that this season for the packers was insanity and I dont expect a replication of these numbers especially Jordy's (altho Jordy may still put up numbers due to an expanded role now). Aaron Rodgers was in post season super bowl winning form. And if you look at the numbers that Jordy had a high number of receptions they were against teams like Minnesota, Tampa, Detroit (end of season) etc...

I dont I have to tell you that defenses in the afc are significantly better. In fact he gets a top 5 defense in at least 3 of the games this season (Baltimore, San Fran, Houston). Two of those happen during playoffs. Also just for a fun fact, NE has the 30th hardest schedule for QB and 22nd for WR. Meanwhile for TE they have the 9th easiest schedule. What does that mean basically. Now of course matchups arent everything and stuff changes, but still it doesn't inspire confidence.

The point I am trying to make here is simply this. In a high octane offense, there is no good reason to feed the ball the any one player over and over. It takes away from the offense to have a million weapons and only use one. In these type of offenses, you throw it to the first/most open guy you see. Even if Lloyd is progression 1 (very doubtful), downfield plays take time to develop, and Brady will most likely throw it to whoever is next progression is because that guy will be open immediately.
[/quote]
Two things. You have no clue what defenses are going to be hard/easy this time of year. Too much roster turnover, coaching changes etc. Last years numbers give an idea but looking at the schedule is a waste of time especially when you are trying to project a players numbers.

You also have no clue what Josh McDaniels offense in NE will be like. Brsndon Lloyd has been a favorite target of McDaniels in Denver and StL. Thats going to change all of a sudden? I mentioned before that there will be plays drawn up for all the different pieces in the offense, that includes Lloyd and Gronk and Welker. To think otherwise is just foolish. The point is to create mismatches. Suggesting that Gronk or Welker will always be the number one option is laughable.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345065113' post='1119892']
Two things. You have no clue what defenses are going to be hard/easy this time of year. Too much roster turnover, coaching changes etc. Last years numbers give an idea but looking at the schedule is a waste of time especially when you are trying to project a players numbers.

You also have no clue what Josh McDaniels offense in NE will be like. Brsndon Lloyd has been a favorite target of McDaniels in Denver and StL. Thats going to change all of a sudden? I mentioned before that there will be plays drawn up for all the different pieces in the offense, that includes Lloyd and Gronk and Welker. To think otherwise is just foolish. The point is to create mismatches. Suggesting that Gronk or Welker will always be the number one option is laughable.
[/quote]

Really so tell me what's more of a mismatch? A linebacker on an all pro TE or a cornerback on a receiver going deep? How about a slot guy vs a deep guy? No matter how you spin that welker and gronk are easier to create mismatches with than Lloyd.

Also I believe you severely overrating roster turnover, coaching changes and the like. The Carolina panthers arent going to go from having one of the league's worst rushing D's to a top D just because they added a player or two. Harbaruagh's transformation of the 49ers into an elite team is so amazing because it doesnt happen like that often. Even if another team manages to make that kind of transition this year, thats 1 of 16 games (2 if its divisional rival) so the results dont pull a 180. If a rb has the easiest schedule in the league for the season. Even if a few teams get better run D, his schedule is not going to be the hardest in the league. Hell it probably wont be in the top 20 hardest in the league. Also you have to remember the converse may be true as well.

Just figured Id post this since its interesting - [url="http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm"]http://www.fftoolbox...of_schedule.cfm[/url]

[gabefergy]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1345064963' post='1119890']


That's the problem with the Patriots. You can envision so many different outcomes and scenarios. I can see a scenario where at the end of the year, Lloyd is the best producing fantasy option for the Pats. But I can also envision Gronk, Wes Welker or even Hernandez being that as well, at the expense of somebody else.

I'm actually lower on most Pats than ADP. I wouldn't be surprised if Gronk would need to block more this season. I don't mind Hernandez because he'll be lined up as WR, TE and even get some goalline rushes for the value you can get him at.
[/quote]
I agree to an extent. There are a lot of mouths to feed in NE, but I also think that offense is still going to be really explosive. I can see Brady matching his numbers from last year with possibly more TDs. Im raking a risk on Lloyd, but his history with McDaniels is largely what im banking on. He put up numbers with orton, tebow, and bradford. Now he gets Brady passing him the ball.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345065655' post='1119900']


Really so tell me what's more of a mismatch? A linebacker on an all pro TE or a cornerback on a receiver going deep? How about a slot guy vs a deep guy? No matter how you spin that welker and gronk are easier to create mismatches with than Lloyd.

Also I believe you severely overrating roster turnover, coaching changes and the like. The Carolina panthers arent going to go from having one of the league's worst rushing D's to a top D just because they added a player or two. Harbaruagh's transformation of the 49ers into an elite team is so amazing because it doesnt happen like that often. Even if another team manages to make that kind of transition this year, thats 1 of 16 games (2 if its divisional rival) so the results dont pull a 180. If a rb has the easiest schedule in the league for the season. Even if a few teams get better run D, his schedule is not going to be the hardest in the league. Hell it probably wont be in the top 20 hardest in the league. Also you have to remember the converse may be true as well.

Just figured Id post this since its interesting - [url="http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm"]http://www.fftoolbox...of_schedule.cfm[/url]
[/quote]
Honestly. That means nothing to me. Let the season play out. Prognasticating about SoS is silly.

Mismatches come in many forms and is dependent on a lot of factors...down, distance, sub package. If a team is bracketing Gronk and letting Lloyd 1v1 who is the mismatch?

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345065898' post='1119906']
Honestly. That means nothing to me. Let the season play out. Prognasticating about SoS is silly.

Mismatches come in many forms and is dependent on a lot of factors...down, distance, sub package. If a team is bracketing Gronk and letting Lloyd 1v1 who is the mismatch?
[/quote]

Didnt say it was impossible to create a mismatch for Lloyd, just that its much easier to do it for Welker or Gronk.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345066493' post='1119913']


Didnt say it was impossible to create a mismatch for Lloyd, just that its much easier to do it for Welker or Gronk.
[/quote]
It all depends on what the defense shows.

[PuRock]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345065755' post='1119903']
I agree to an extent. There are a lot of mouths to feed in NE, but I also think that offense is still going to be really explosive. I can see Brady matching his numbers from last year with possibly more TDs. Im raking a risk on Lloyd, but his history with McDaniels is largely what im banking on. He put up numbers with orton, tebow, and bradford. Now he gets Brady passing him the ball.
[/quote]

If it were another team, I would've also bank on the McDaniels/Lloyd connection. But since its the Pats, I've kept my distance from Lloyd. Everybody has their pre-season predictions and gut feelings. Its so hard to predict, so much football to be played.

Lloyd could have a monster year and next year we'll be debating whether or not to take him as the #3 WR off the board. Its all speculation and opinions right now.

Gotta go with your gut. If you believe in Lloyd, then you should nab him.

[AwakenTheDemon]

You can talk all you want about the "well known" McDaniels to Lloyd connection, but that does not matter in New England. McDaniels is not under center, Brady is. So what will matter is the Brady to Lloyd connection.

Brady is smart, he's not going to latch onto Lloyd on a play McDaniels drew up just because McDaniels likes Lloyd. I'd say the chemistry between Brady and Welker/Gronk/Hernandez is much more potent than the chemistry between Mcadaniels and Lloyd.

Fact of the matter is that this offense runs through the Golden Boy, not McDaniels.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='AwakenTheDemon' timestamp='1345071140' post='1119976']
You can talk all you want about the "well known" McDaniels to Lloyd connection, but that does not matter in New England. McDaniels is not under center, Brady is. So what will matter is the Brady to Lloyd connection.

Brady is smart, he's not going to latch onto Lloyd on a play McDaniels drew up just because McDaniels likes Lloyd. I'd say the chemistry between Brady and Welker/Gronk/Hernandez is much more potent than the chemistry between Mcadaniels and Lloyd.

Fact of the matter is that this offense runs through the Golden Boy, not McDaniels.
[/quote]
Not to mention Pretty Boy was basically the reason the last OC went bye bye.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='AwakenTheDemon' timestamp='1345071140' post='1119976']
You can talk all you want about the "well known" McDaniels to Lloyd connection, but that does not matter in New England. McDaniels is not under center, Brady is. So what will matter is the Brady to Lloyd connection.

Brady is smart, he's not going to latch onto Lloyd on a play McDaniels drew up just because McDaniels likes Lloyd. I'd say the chemistry between Brady and Welker/Gronk/Hernandez is much more potent than the chemistry between Mcadaniels and Lloyd.

Fact of the matter is that this offense runs through the Golden Boy, not McDaniels.
[/quote]
I dont think he is going to latch on to Lloyd. There are obviously a lot of weapons there, but I also dont think its fair to say he will be the 3rd or 4th option on every play. Brady is a very cerebral player and he is going to see where he has the best match-up. Lloyd is a proven deep threat in an offense that lacked such last season. It's impossible to know how he will click with Brady, but if the offense looks anything like it did when McDaniels was the OC with Randy Moss as the deep threat that role will be significant.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345071997' post='1119984']
Not to mention Pretty Boy was basically the reason the last OC went bye bye.
[/quote]
What? He left because he got the job offer of a lifetime....

[-Truth-]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345056585' post='1119708']
The downfield part is what really kills me in this. A downfield guy usually sees about 3-4 targets a game (some weeks with Jordy Nelson last year man. 1 catch for a 50 yd td the whole game sometimes). I expect welker and gronk to do the heavy lifting as usual while Lloyd is in more a supplemental win more role. Even with Mcdaniels there, this is a drastically different situation than when Moss was there in 2007. Lloyd is a lesser talent than Moss, there are now 3 arguably top targets there alongside lloyd. If I had to compare to someone, it would be Vjax. A guy who gives you boom or bust type production. He will either give you 15 pts or 3 points a week. Not for the same reason as Vjax obviously but I see it being that type of production

Also he played 16-19 in a preseason snaps with the first team and saw 0 targets and recorded 0 catches. Yes you can say its preseason, but I can counter with its preseason why not try and take a shot deep. Absolutely no cost to try and develop chemistry or try weird things in preseason. Also on a slightly related note, what the heck happened to that pats o line (I really hope it doesnt improve until after week 2 so the Ravens can ball so hard and let Haloti sack Brady a few times )
[/quote]

I'd have to dispute the first part. There's no reason why a player with the ability to attack defenses deep has to sacrifice his overall number of targets in order to fill that role. Jordy Nelson still finished with 100 targets this year, which is a substantial amount considering all of the mouths Green Bay has to feed. And citing Lloyd's 2010 season, wherein he led the NFL in receiving yards, he tied Calvin Johnson for the most deep targets among all WRs with 41. He also finished with 641 yards off of deep passes, which was by far the best in the NFL. More impressively, he's been very reliable when the ball enters his catch radius. Over his last 2 seasons, Lloyd has a mere 2 drops on the deep passes thrown his way. Regardless of his role, I don't see anyone on NE's roster who's better suited to help stretch the field. So if the Patriots do decide to let loose on the long ball, Lloyd should be the primary beneficiary, whether he's seeing 4 targets a game or 8.

Given that it was a single pre-season contest, I won't read much into it. I'd be more concerned if he was targeted on deep passes and couldn't separate and/or reel them in. Or if he was struggling in practice in addition to that output. But every report I've seen about Lloyd thus far has praised his performance thus far. Plus the same piece you quoted finished with, "In other words, the Pats see Lloyd as one of the 'top guns' on their offense. The production will come in bunches once the real games get going." I'll agree that his weekly production could still be inconsistent this year, but I believe there's a higher chance of it being a little more evened out.

I didn't see how they fared, but based on your comments, I'm assuming they struggled. Not sure what happened. The return of Brian Waters could help shore things up, but it's hard to imagine that one player will reform the entire unit. Perhaps Nate Solder switching from RT to LT might attribute to their problems. I hope it doesn't improve until then neither.

[-Truth-]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345056585' post='1119708']
The downfield part is what really kills me in this. A downfield guy usually sees about 3-4 targets a game (some weeks with Jordy Nelson last year man. 1 catch for a 50 yd td the whole game sometimes). I expect welker and gronk to do the heavy lifting as usual while Lloyd is in more a supplemental win more role. Even with Mcdaniels there, this is a drastically different situation than when Moss was there in 2007. Lloyd is a lesser talent than Moss, there are now 3 arguably top targets there alongside lloyd. If I had to compare to someone, it would be Vjax. A guy who gives you boom or bust type production. He will either give you 15 pts or 3 points a week. Not for the same reason as Vjax obviously but I see it being that type of production

Also he played 16-19 in a preseason snaps with the first team and saw 0 targets and recorded 0 catches. Yes you can say its preseason, but I can counter with its preseason why not try and take a shot deep. Absolutely no cost to try and develop chemistry or try weird things in preseason. Also on a slightly related note, what the heck happened to that pats o line (I really hope it doesnt improve until after week 2 so the Ravens can ball so hard and let Haloti sack Brady a few times )
[/quote]

I'd have to dispute the first part. There's no reason why a player with the ability to attack defenses deep has to sacrifice his overall number of targets in order to fill that role. Jordy Nelson still finished with 100 targets this year, which is a substantial amount considering all of the mouths Green Bay has to feed. And citing Lloyd's 2010 season, wherein he led the NFL in receiving yards, he tied Calvin Johnson for the most deep targets among all WRs with 41. He also finished with 641 yards off of deep passes, which was by far the best in the NFL. More impressively, he's been very reliable when the ball enters his catch radius. Over his last 2 seasons, Lloyd has a mere 2 drops on the deep passes thrown his way. Regardless of his role, I don't see anyone on NE's roster who's better suited to help stretch the field. So if the Patriots do decide to let loose on the long ball, Lloyd should be the primary beneficiary, whether he's seeing 4 targets a game or 8.

Given that it was a single pre-season contest, I won't read much into it. I'd be more concerned if he was targeted on deep passes and couldn't separate and/or reel them in. Or if he was struggling in practice in addition to that output. But every report I've seen about Lloyd thus far has praised his performance. Plus the same piece you quoted finished with, "In other words, the Pats see Lloyd as one of the 'top guns' on their offense. The production will come in bunches once the real games get going." I'll agree that his weekly production could still be inconsistent this year, but I believe there's a higher chance of it being a little more evened out.

I didn't see how they fared, but based on your comments, I'm assuming they struggled. Not sure what happened. The return of Brian Waters could help shore things up, but it's hard to imagine that one player will reform the entire unit. Perhaps Nate Solder switching from RT to LT might attribute to their problems. I hope it doesn't improve until then neither.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1345066592' post='1119915']
If it were another team, I would've also bank on the McDaniels/Lloyd connection. But since its the Pats, I've kept my distance from Lloyd. Everybody has their pre-season predictions and gut feelings. Its so hard to predict, so much football to be played.

Lloyd could have a monster year and next year we'll be debating whether or not to take him as the #3 WR off the board. Its all speculation and opinions right now.

Gotta go with your gut. If you believe in Lloyd, then you should nab him.
[/quote]

Yup, I went with my gut. Like I said, I'll eat crow if I'm wrong but I have a good feeling. Now I just can't wait for football to start!

[usmccharles]

This whole lloyd talk is very interesting. i have two keepers so my first pick will be the 29th pick overall, third round. Im considering welker or lloyd just because i think the production will be there, i dont think welker will be available though. what kind of predictions are you guys seeing for the wr's/te's in NE? im think welker still pulls in 1200+ and gronk over 1000, but im staying away from gronk because of value, id rather take hernandez in the 5h or so

[gabefergy]

[quote name='usmccharles' timestamp='1345076696' post='1120032']
This whole lloyd talk is very interesting. i have two keepers so my first pick will be the 29th pick overall, third round. Im considering welker or lloyd just because i think the production will be there, i dont think welker will be available though. what kind of predictions are you guys seeing for the wr's/te's in NE? im think welker still pulls in 1200+ and gronk over 1000, but im staying away from gronk because of value, id rather take hernandez in the 5h or so
[/quote]

Welker 1,200 yds 8 TDs
Lloyd 1,050 yds 9 TDs
Gronk 1,000 yds 10 TDs
Hernandez 750 yds 6 TDs

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345077462' post='1120039']
Welker 1,200 yds 8 TDs
Lloyd 1,050 yds 9 TDs
Gronk 1,000 yds 10 TDs
Hernandez 750 yds 6 TDs
[/quote]

Welker 1350 yards 6 tds 105 catches (he's had over 100 catches each season without fail and he still is the guy who moves the chains. he is Brady's go to guy, this wont change)
Lloyd - 1000+ yards 8tds 50-60 catches (this gives lloyd basically about 20 yards per completion give or take)
Gronk - 1000+ yards 12 tds 75 catches
Hernandez 800 yards 100 rushing yards 7 tds (1 rushing) 65 catches

thats personally what I see

[Gordo52]

Gronk: 200 rec, 2,160 yards 35 TDs.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1345085736' post='1120124']
Gronk: 200 rec, 2,160 yards 35 TDs.
[/quote]
lol

[PuRock]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1345085736' post='1120124']
Gronk: 200 rec, 2,160 yards 35 TDs.
[/quote]

Here's my prediction. Gronk's head explodes from a massive ego attack after an on-field TD celebration.

[Gordo52]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345085785' post='1120127']

lol
[/quote]
Eh give or take. ;p

[usmccharles]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345079051' post='1120059']
Welker 1350 yards 6 tds 105 catches (he's had over 100 catches each season without fail and he still is the guy who moves the chains. he is Brady's go to guy, this wont change)
Lloyd - 1000+ yards 8tds 50-60 catches (this gives lloyd basically about 20 yards per completion give or take)
Gronk - 1000+ yards 12 tds 75 catches
Hernandez 800 yards 100 rushing yards 7 tds (1 rushing) 65 catches

thats personally what I see
[/quote]

so...with less catches but big yardage, you think he has more of a fantasy value than welker?

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='usmccharles' timestamp='1345091608' post='1120175']
so...with less catches but big yardage, you think he has more of a fantasy value than welker?
[/quote]
Lloyd is going to be the deep threat over there. I dont think he has more value than welker, but like I said before I compare him to Vjax. There will be some weeks where he just flat out wins you games (Vjax 200 yards 3 tds against Green Bay would be one example) and others where he does nothing. I think Lloyd should get to the 1000 yard mark but how he gets there is a mystery.

He could have 3 200 yard games and be mediocre in the other 13. Or it may be more evenly divided. Who knows. But with all the weapons Brady has, I suspect it Lloyd will get his in bunches rather than evenly divided 16 game season which would be better value for fantasy.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='usmccharles' timestamp='1345091608' post='1120175']


so...with less catches but big yardage, you think he has more of a fantasy value than welker?
[/quote]
Is your league ppr? If not i think welker is better, but lloyd has potential to outproduce him. You cab definitely draft lloyd later than welker. In ppr welker is a top 3 wr.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345092575' post='1120180']
Is your league ppr? If not i think welker is better, but lloyd has potential to outproduce him. You cab definitely draft lloyd later than welker. In ppr welker is a top 3 wr.
[/quote]

I dont think he was asking which is better value but which will produce more and gabe as much as you love lloyd you gotta give it to welker here.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345095229' post='1120202']


I dont think he was asking which is better value but which will produce more and gabe as much as you love lloyd you gotta give it to welker here.
[/quote]
Did you read the part where i said welker is better? Or where i projected welker to have more yards. I think Lloyd will get more TDs and there is the 10% chance he becomes moss 2.0 and scores more points...hence the value. Lloyd could be gotten a round or two later.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345092575' post='1120180']
Is your league ppr? If not i think welker is better, but [b]lloyd has potential to outproduce him.[/b] [b]You cab definitely draft lloyd later [/b]than welker. In ppr welker is a top 3 wr.
[/quote]

I was referring to that part. Didnt say that you said Lloyd was better than Welker just that you implied that Lloyd was better value than Welker which considering welker is a second rounder is true

[BMOREHAWAII]

Welker definetely will get more receptions and yardage. I dont know how Lloyd can be Moss 2.0 when Moss didn't do much in NE and Gronk and Hernandez possibly hawking EVERY TD possible in the endzone with them being COMPLETE mismatches to most if not all LB's/Safeties in the league, but we will never know how McDaniels' offense will play out.

[codizzle]

[quote name='BMOREHAWAII' timestamp='1345099033' post='1120220']
Welker definetely will get more receptions and yardage. I dont know how Lloyd can be Moss 2.0 when Moss didn't do much in NE and Gronk and Hernandez possibly hawking EVERY TD possible in the endzone with them being COMPLETE mismatches to most if not all LB's/Safeties in the league, but we will never know how McDaniels' offense will play out.
[/quote]
Yea cause Moss never did anything in NE! Ha

[usmccharles]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345092575' post='1120180']
Is your league ppr? If not i think welker is better, but lloyd has potential to outproduce him. You cab definitely draft lloyd later than welker. In ppr welker is a top 3 wr.
[/quote]

Not a ppr league. i agree that lloyd has a higher ceiling, like i said i have the 9th pick in the third and dont have a 4th. I highly doubt welker is available that late in the third so im considering lloyd, because julio jones wont be there. Guys im looking at in the third are marshal, lloyd, aj green, roddy white...

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345092324' post='1120178']
Lloyd is going to be the deep threat over there. I dont think he has more value than welker, but like I said before I compare him to Vjax. There will be some weeks where he just flat out wins you games (Vjax 200 yards 3 tds against Green Bay would be one example) and others where he does nothing. I think Lloyd should get to the 1000 yard mark but how he gets there is a mystery.

He could have 3 200 yard games and be mediocre in the other 13. Or it may be more evenly divided. Who knows. But with all the weapons Brady has, I suspect it Lloyd will get his in bunches rather than evenly divided 16 game season which would be better value for fantasy.
[/quote]

yea i see what your saying, thats what makes it hard, He could have 1400 yards but yet be a horrible fantasy player if he gets those in select games and not spread out, like you said. still a tough call