ESPN Fantasy Football 2012

[-Truth-]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Not chiming in on the trade debate, but I'm a little surprised by the consensus negative outlook on Michael Turner. I understand that his situation now isn't as clear as it was in 2011, especially with the reports of Jacquizz Rodgers having a more extensive role this year. And he did turn 30 in the offseason, which is a scary age for RBs. But while he's carried the rock extensively in Atlanta, he's only had 4 seasons with the lion's share, finishing with no more than 83 touches in each of his first 4 seasons with San Diego. In addition, Turner's 62 forced missed tackles led the NFL last year, and were higher than the 2nd best by double digits. Not to mention that his 3.1 yards after contact were tied for 5th best in the league. I don't see him putting up 1,300+ rushing yards in 2012. But barring an injury, 1,000 - 1,200 scrimmage yards and 8 - 10 TDs aren't out of the question. He's a solid #2 RB in my book. [/font][/color]

[Gordo52]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345042850' post='1119482']

There are just as many reasons not to like Turner. He has carried the ball a ton over the past 4 years and last season it caught up to him. His numbers are skewed from last year because of a monster game in week 17 against the hapless Bucs. Over the last 6 weeks of the season, he was averaging less then 3.5 ypc and scored only 1 TD. The Falcons have made it clear he wont carry the ball as much in their new offense. They want to get Rodgers more involved and pass more. He's gonna be a disappointment guaranteed.
[/quote]
The falcons coaches said the same thing the last 2 years? I think reducing his workload will help him, he won't have the ssame amount of yards but he could more TDs then he had last year.

I think the risk outweighs the reward. IMO there are more positives about him, rather then negative.

[Gordo52]

Thank you. In my eyes he's a borderline #1, #2.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1345053692' post='1119638']

The falcons coaches said the same thing the last 2 years? I think reducing his workload will help him, he won't have the ssame amount of yards but he could more TDs then he had last year.

I think the risk outweighs the reward. IMO there are more positives about him, rather then negative.
[/quote]
They have a new OC

[PuRock]

[quote name='-Truth-' timestamp='1345051593' post='1119598']
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Not chiming in on the trade debate, but I'm a little surprised by the consensus negative outlook on Michael Turner. I understand that his situation now isn't as clear as it was in 2011, especially with the reports of Jacquizz Rodgers having a more extensive role this year. And he did turn 30 in the offseason, which is a scary age for RBs. But while he's carried the rock extensively in Atlanta, he's only had 4 seasons with the lion's share, finishing with no more than 83 touches in each of his first 4 seasons with San Diego. In addition, Turner's 62 forced missed tackles led the NFL last year, and were higher than the 2nd best by double digits. Not to mention that his 3.1 yards after contact were tied for 5th best in the league. I don't see him putting up 1,300+ rushing yards in 2012. But barring an injury, 1,000 - 1,200 scrimmage yards and 8 - 10 TDs aren't out of the question. He's a solid #2 RB in my book. [/font][/color]
[/quote]

Turner is perhaps the most polarizing fantasy draftee this year.

[gabefergy]

Im gonna have some fun with this and keep a weekly tally of MT vs BL. If im wrong then egg on my face.

[codizzle]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1345054153' post='1119649']


Turner is perhaps the most polarizing draftee this year.
[/quote]
Besides Brett Favre

[PuRock]

[quote name='codizzle' timestamp='1345054289' post='1119652']
Besides Brett Favre
[/quote]

If by polarizing you mean sitting in the basement with no pants on waiting for hot interviewers, then yes.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='&#045;Truth&#045;' timestamp='1345051593' post='1119598']
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Not chiming in on the trade debate, but I'm a little surprised by the consensus negative outlook on Michael Turner. I understand that his situation now isn't as clear as it was in 2011, especially with the reports of Jacquizz Rodgers having a more extensive role this year. And he did turn 30 in the offseason, which is a scary age for RBs. But while he's carried the rock extensively in Atlanta, he's only had 4 seasons with the lion's share, finishing with no more than 83 touches in each of his first 4 seasons with San Diego. In addition, Turner's 62 forced missed tackles led the NFL last year, and were higher than the 2nd best by double digits. Not to mention that his 3.1 yards after contact were tied for 5th best in the league. I don't see him putting up 1,300+ rushing yards in 2012. But barring an injury, 1,000 - 1,200 scrimmage yards and 8 - 10 TDs aren't out of the question. He's a solid #2 RB in my book. [/font][/color]
[/quote]
I think Turner will get about that. I also think Brandon Lloyd will get 1,000 yds and 8-10TDs. The difference is Lloyd has the potential to go off for 1,400 yds and 15 tds. Turner doesnt have that upside.

[Gordo52]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345053879' post='1119642']
They have a new OC
[/quote]
Hmmm. Didn't know that. But Falcons coach (cant remember name, it's on the tip of my tounge) I'm sure will let Turner get his. Defenses will focus on the recievers so much, I'm positive it will free up Turner who still has it in the open field. Falcons win when Turner gets his, and I don't see that changing this year.

[codizzle]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1345054575' post='1119657']


If by polarizing you mean sitting in the basement with no pants on waiting for hot interviewees, then yes.
[/quote]
Mind reader alert

[-Truth-]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345054236' post='1119651']
Im gonna have some fun with this and keep a weekly tally of MT vs BL. If im wrong then egg on my face.
[/quote]

To your credit, I think people are underestimating Brandon Lloyd as well. He would've likely crossed the 1,000 yard mark had he not missed the week 2 contest, and that was while playing most of the season with the Rams offense, whose OL was filled with revolving doors. He'll have a much better supporting cast in NE, and the best QB he will have ever played with. The reports of their strong rapport are very encouraging too. The only risk with Lloyd is that the weapons around him are sure to steal targets away here and there.

[Gordo52]

Also just read this from a commentor on ESPN....This explains alot of his regression towards the end of the season.

2011:
In six of his last seven games, he averaged 3.6 or fewer YPC. Let’s see why.
1. Faced MIN’s #6 run D and ATL had a turnover
2. Faced HOU’s #11 run D
3. Down 23-7 at halftime to CAR
4. Faced JAC’s #5 run D and his defense had a fumble recovery TD (he still scored a TD to salvage a respectable fantasy day)
5. Down 31-13 to NO in 3rd quarter, eventually losing 45-16. His offense also fumbled
6. His defense scored a TD on an interception. Oh, and he ran 17 times for 172 yards and 2 TDs. Wait! I thought he had no gas at the end of the season? (Ok, I get it that TB’s run D was 31st, but just sayin’)
7. Down 17-2 after 3rd quarter to NYG

[-Truth-]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345055080' post='1119665']
I think Turner will get about that. I also think Brandon Lloyd will get 1,000 yds and 8-10TDs. The difference is Lloyd has the potential to go off for 1,400 yds and 15 tds. Turner doesnt have that upside.
[/quote]

I can't argue with that. While Rob Gronkowski did provide an enormous target for Tom Brady, they didn't have the downfield threat that Lloyd clearly is. Conversely, I understand the reasoning behind the preference of an RB over a WR in Fantasy land, one that I typically comply with, so this will be a fun story line to keep track of throughout the season. Hope it works out for everyone.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='-Truth-' timestamp='1345055935' post='1119691']
I can't argue with that. While Rob Gronkowski did provide an enormous target for Tom Brady, they didn't have the downfield threat that Lloyd clearly is. Conversely, I understand the reasoning behind the preference of an RB over a WR in Fantasy land, one that I typically comply with, so this will be a fun story line to keep track of throughout the season. Hope it works out for everyone.
[/quote]
The downfield part is what really kills me in this. A downfield guy usually sees about 3-4 targets a game (some weeks with Jordy Nelson last year man. 1 catch for a 50 yd td the whole game sometimes). I expect welker and gronk to do the heavy lifting as usual while Lloyd is in more a supplemental win more role. Even with Mcdaniels there, this is a drastically different situation than when Moss was there in 2007. Lloyd is a lesser talent than Moss, there are now 3 arguably top targets there alongside lloyd. If I had to compare to someone, it would be Vjax. A guy who gives you boom or bust type production. He will either give you 15 pts or 3 points a week. Not for the same reason as Vjax obviously but I see it being that type of production

Also he played 16-19 in a preseason snaps with the first team and saw 0 targets and recorded 0 catches. Yes you can say its preseason, but I can counter with its preseason why not try and take a shot deep. Absolutely no cost to try and develop chemistry or try weird things in preseason. Also on a slightly related note, what the heck happened to that pats o line (I really hope it doesnt improve until after week 2 so the Ravens can ball so hard and let Haloti sack Brady a few times )

[Gordo52]

I have a wierd feeling with no evidence behind it that Brady wants to make Gronk the best TE in NFL history until he retires.

[Mt. Crushmore]

I think Lloyd will have a great year for the Patriots which is why I drafted him. However, fantasy favors a decent RB over a good WR and I needed a RB (as you all know you shouldn't start Benson and Green-Ellis). Plus I am confident in a combo of Fitzgerald, Garcon, and Baldwin at WR.

[Gordo52]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345056585' post='1119708']
The downfield part is what really kills me in this. A downfield guy usually sees about 3-4 targets a game. I expect welker and gronk to do the heavy lifting as usual while Lloyd is in more a supplemental win more role. Even with Mcdaniels there, this is a drastically different situation than when Moss was there in 2007. Lloyd is a lesser talent than Moss, there are now 3 arguably top targets there alongside lloyd. If I had to compare to someone, it would be Vjax. A guy who gives you boom or bust type production. He will either give you 15 pts or 3 points a week. Not for the same reason as Vjax obviously but I see it being that type of production
[/quote]
McDaniels has a history of giving the ball alot to Lloyd. But he has never been in a offense that runs through TE's before. I think Lloyd provides attention that will be taken off of Gronk and Aaron. McDaniels has never had a TE with the size and athleticism that Gronk has. I'm interested in seeing how he plays him. I know BB will make it an issue to give it to Gronk after just giving him that megadeal contract for a TE.

[Gordo52]

[quote name='Mt. Crushmore' timestamp='1345056842' post='1119716']
I think Lloyd will have a great year for the Patriots which is why I drafted him. However, fantasy favors a decent RB over a good WR and I needed a RB (as you all know you shouldn't start Benson and Green-Ellis). Plus I am confident in a combo of Fitzgerald, Garcon, and Baldwin at WR.
[/quote]
Also RB's are more consistent then WR's. It flips every year for WR's. I think it was a good move you ya.

[Gordo52]

Pretty good article on Turner..
[url="http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/19788761/draft-prep-frustrated-turner-insists-hell-be-a-factor"]http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/19788761/draft-prep-frustrated-turner-insists-hell-be-a-factor[/url]

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1345056846' post='1119717']

McDaniels has a history of giving the ball alot to Lloyd. But he has never been in a offense that runs through TE's before. I think Lloyd provides attention that will be taken off of Gronk and Aaron. McDaniels has never had a TE with the size and athleticism that Gronk has. I'm interested in seeing how he plays him. I know BB will make it an issue to give it to Gronk after just giving him that megadeal contract for a TE.
[/quote]
The offense ran through the TEs last year, but two key factors changed. New OC who loves to go deep and a new downfield threat in Lloyd. Last year NE was actually quite weak at WR so the offense had to run through the TEs. That wont be the case this season.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345058957' post='1119763']
The offense ran through the TEs last year, but two key factors changed. New OC who loves to go deep and a new downfield threat in Lloyd. Last year NE was actually quite weak at WR so the offense had to run through the TEs. That wont be the case this season.
[/quote]
how weak can you be a with a 1500 yard receiver. If thats the case the detroit lions were weak at wide receiver too lol.

No but seriously this offense is stacked and Im expecting a saints type offensive system. You can call plays for Lloyd but lets not forget this is Brady we are dealing with. He's gonna choose where to go with the ball and I think even Mcdaniels will cave and choose to go with high percentage completion and YAC over bombing it deep.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1345056846' post='1119717']
McDaniels has a history of giving the ball alot to Lloyd. But he has never been in a offense that runs through TE's before. I think Lloyd provides attention that will be taken off of Gronk and Aaron. McDaniels has never had a TE with the size and athleticism that Gronk has. I'm interested in seeing how he plays him. I know BB will make it an issue to give it to Gronk after just giving him that megadeal contract for a TE.
[/quote]
I really dont see them going to Lloyd a lot. If I had to guess, Lloyd is the 4th progression in this system (behind the TE's and Welker.) Lloyd will have some big weeks, but Im expecting Vjax type production from him. Some weeks it will be great to own him, others you're gonna kill yourself for starting him.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345060960' post='1119810']

how weak can you be a with a 1500 yard receiver. If thats the case the detroit lions were weak at wide receiver too lol.

No but seriously this offense is stacked and Im expecting a saints type offensive system. You can call plays for Lloyd but lets not forget this is Brady we are dealing with. He's gonna choose where to go with the ball and I think even Mcdaniels will cave and choose to go with high percentage completion and YAC over bombing it deep.
[/quote]
Other than Welker they were bad. They had no deep threat so Gronk filled that role. With Lloyd that offense can be even more explosive. Kind of scary actually. Why is McDaniels going to change when he has the pieces to be an incredibly high octane offense?

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345061165' post='1119815']

I really dont see them going to Lloyd a lot. If I had to guess, Lloyd is the 4th progression in this system (behind the TE's and Welker.) Lloyd will have some big weeks, but Im expecting Vjax type production from him. Some weeks it will be great to own him, others you're gonna kill yourself for starting him.
[/quote]
I think you are completely wrong.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345061299' post='1119823']
Other than Welker they were bad. They had no deep threat so Gronk filled that role. With Lloyd that offense can be even more explosive. Kind of scary actually. Why is McDaniels going to change when he has the pieces to be an incredibly high octane offense?
[/quote]

If you wana look at a high octane offense lets look at the saints. No one wide receiver is an amazing fantasy own there.

With the packers you have Jennings and Jordy. But who would picked Jordy to out produce Jennings. Even still you look at a per game basis. Jennings gave you what you expected. Multiple reception for high yards. Jordy was a freak tho. If you look at his per game numbers, some weeks you ended very very lucky. There were some weeks where he gave you almost nothing, while others he had a reception that fortunately went for a long gain and a td. Just to supplement the deep threat target a little more, the majority of the time he was getting 4 completions or less. Lets not forget tho, that this season for the packers was insanity and I dont expect a replication of these numbers especially Jordy's (altho Jordy may still put up numbers due to an expanded role now). Aaron Rodgers was in post season super bowl winning form. And if you look at the numbers that Jordy had a high number of receptions they were against teams like Minnesota, Tampa, Detroit (end of season) etc...

I dont I have to tell you that defenses in the afc are significantly better. In fact he gets a top 5 defense in at least 3 of the games this season (Baltimore, San Fran, Houston). Two of those happen during playoffs. Also just for a fun fact, NE has the 30th hardest schedule for QB and 22nd for WR. Meanwhile for TE they have the 9th easiest schedule. What does that mean basically. Now of course matchups arent everything and stuff changes, but still it doesn't inspire confidence.

The point I am trying to make here is simply this. In a high octane offense, there is no good reason to feed the ball the any one player over and over. It takes away from the offense to have a million weapons and only use one. In these type of offenses, you throw it to the first/most open guy you see. Even if Lloyd is progression 1 (very doubtful), downfield plays take time to develop, and Brady will most likely throw it to whoever is next progression is because that guy will be open immediately.

[PuRock]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1345061165' post='1119815']
I really dont see them going to Lloyd a lot. If I had to guess, Lloyd is the 4th progression in this system (behind the TE's and Welker.) Lloyd will have some big weeks, but Im expecting Vjax type production from him. Some weeks it will be great to own him, others you're gonna kill yourself for starting him.
[/quote]

I think I actually agree with Sizzle on this one. There will be too many ups and down with Lloyd. Most weeks Gronk will dominate, Wes Will have big games. On average I also think Lloyd could be 3rd/4th in normal progression.

Besides all that. # of Touchdowns is hard to predict and their offensive line could be going through some growing pains as well.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1345063591' post='1119865']


I think I actually agree with Sizzle on this one. There will be too many ups and down with Lloyd. Most weeks Gronk will dominate, Wes Will have big games. On average I also think Lloyd could be 3rd/4th in normal progression.

Besides all that. # of Touchdowns is hard to predict and their offensive line could be going through some growing pains as well.
[/quote]
A lot of ppl think Gronk will still be the centerpiece, but I disagree. He will have a big role no doubt, but his presence alone will open the passing game. Lloyd is going to see a lot of 1v1 matchups and i am sure McDaniels will have plays designed for him. Lloyd will have a fair number of plays where he is the number one option. Thats how offenses work. Its not like Brady looks to Gronk, then welker, then Hernandez...etc. on every single play. Lloyd has proven over the past 3 years he can make every possible catch and the history with McDaniels is undeniable. Their offensive line problems is more reason to believe that Lloyd and not Gronk will have a big year because the TE will be asked to stay in and block more frequently.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345064466' post='1119880']
A lot of ppl think Gronk will still be the centerpiece, but I disagree. He will have a big role no doubt, but his presence alone will open the passing game. Lloyd is going to see a lot of 1v1 matchups and i am sure McDaniels will have plays designed for him. Lloyd will have a fair number of plays where he is the number one option. Thats how offenses work. Its not like Brady looks to Gronk, then welker, then Hernandez...etc. on every single play. Lloyd has proven over the past 3 years he can make every possible catch and the history with McDaniels is undeniable. Their offensive line problems is more reason to believe that Lloyd and not Gronk will have a big year because the TE will be asked to stay in and block more frequently.
[/quote]

All the more reason that Lloyd will have less of a role since he is a deep threat. The o line needs to block for a relatively long time in order to let the deep route develop.

[PuRock]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1345064466' post='1119880']
A lot of ppl think Gronk will still be the centerpiece, but I disagree. He will have a big role no doubt, but his presence alone will open the passing game. Lloyd is going to see a lot of 1v1 matchups and i am sure McDaniels will have plays designed for him. Lloyd will have a fair number of plays where he is the number one option. Thats how offenses work. Its not like Brady looks to Gronk, then welker, then Hernandez...etc. on every single play. Lloyd has proven over the past 3 years he can make every possible catch and the history with McDaniels is undeniable. Their offensive line problems is more reason to believe that Lloyd and not Gronk will have a big year because the TE will be asked to stay in and block more frequently.
[/quote]

That's the problem with the Patriots. You can envision so many different outcomes and scenarios. I can see a scenario where at the end of the year, Lloyd is the best producing fantasy option for the Pats. But I can also envision Gronk, Wes Welker or even Hernandez being that as well, at the expense of somebody else.

I'm actually lower on most Pats than ADP. I wouldn't be surprised if Gronk would need to block more this season. I don't mind Hernandez because he'll be lined up as WR, TE and even get some goalline rushes for the value you can get him at.