150 replies to this topic

[UxbridgeRaven]

If you get "moneyball" about it, assuming you pay Rice $10m a year and he averages 2000 yards from scrimmage a season (which is unlikely), you are paying 5k a yard. The question is could you buy his production cheaper than that. The last few years suggest you could, particularly as you've had a bunch of guys on rookie contracts running wild, the question is whether you consider this group (McCoy, Forte, Rice, Foster etc) to be an exception or whether if you have enough faith in your scouting there is always going to be guys who can produce at that level.

If you figure you can buy the production cheaper elsewhere you have to decide if your willing to pay a premium for intangibles Rice has.

The market would suggest that Rice is worth close to $10m a year with close to 50% guaranteed, the question then becomes is the market overpaying for production. In a hard cap league those decisions can make a big difference.

[codizzle]

Militant X 1, on 22 May 2012 - 10:53 AM, said:

i just hope this gets resolved soon.

~Mili

Ur wish is my command..

I'll make it happen

[BmoreRavens732]

rmw10, on 22 May 2012 - 11:47 AM, said:

That's exactly the point. $50 million is not worth it, while $25 million would be. This isn't a debate over how good Rice is. It's about if he's worth what he wants, and if it would be a smart move for the team.

thats the thing! I dont want the FO to give him to much but this thread seems like its turned into a bash rice thread. Fellas are debating if hes a top ten runner and how his ypc average stacks up and says we wouldnt be hurting ourselves if we let him walk. I mean hes been literally out of 10 other guys 35 to 40% of our offense by hisself. Thats almost half. Imo we would hurt a little.

[arnie_uk]

While we would hurt a little, it would hurt us more to overpay him. That extra 10 mil could be used on a better LT than McKinnie, or improving WR etc, would the improvement elsewhere, be greater than imo, the slight drop off from the RB position.

Im not sure how hard it would be to replicate RR pass catching in our scheme, if tthe RB has good hands. Looking at everything he doesnt seem to do to much more than other RBs pass catching wise, except everything is amplified because of no. of receptions, and in our system, i still see any RB getting huge amount of catches. Of Course there would be a drop off a bit, but again, Pierce by all accounts could be a better runner than Rice who i think its fair to say is just above average in that respect.

So all in all we may see a slight drop, but the money could be used elsewhere for a bigger improvement. You have to look at the whole picture, not just Ray.

[Crabcakes&Football]

I'm not really worried about it anymore. The most we can do is offer him a deal that is fair to both sides. We're not gonna pay him AP or CJ money. He'll come to his senses and get it done and if not we'll franchise him another year and go with a 3 headed monster of Pierce, Allen and whoever else.

[rmw10]

BmoreRavens732, on 22 May 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

thats the thing! I dont want the FO to give him to much but this thread seems like its turned into a bash rice thread. Fellas are debating if hes a top ten runner and how his ypc average stacks up and says we wouldnt be hurting ourselves if we let him walk. I mean hes been literally out of 10 other guys 35 to 40% of our offense by hisself. Thats almost half. Imo we would hurt a little.

Yeah what Arnie said. It would hurt us to lose him, yes. However, it would hurt even more to pay him $10 million. His production running the ball can be easily replaced. Catching out of the backfield would be difficult to replace. In my opinion though, I want that catching production to dip. I think Joe is too reliant on the check down. I'm not advocating to get rid of Rice, but if he were to go, I think it would be better for Joe so he can spread the ball to the receivers on those intermediate routes.

[BMOREHAWAII]

Ray Rice's production cant and wont be reproduced by any ONE or MULTIPLE backs on the team. Does anyone think Ricky Williams type players grow on trees? What if the rook's dont pan out and we let Rice walk , we'd be looking for a franchise RB.

10 mil a year does seem too much for a RB who isn't named Adrian Peterson, but im sure it just a barganing type of thing where they can talk it down to a fair amount.

Also who's to say he isn't a great runner. He didnt have the blocking he's had previously as he does now and he's 2nd in the league. It doesn't look to me like either Leach or Ray are slowiing down either..

Edited by BMOREHAWAII, 37 minutes ago.

[Ed_Reed20]

BMOREHAWAII, on 22 May 2012 - 02:48 PM, said:

Ray Rice's production cant and wont be reproduced by any ONE or MULTIPLE backs on the team. Does anyone think Ricky Williams type players grow on trees? What if the rook's dont pan out and we let Rice walk , we'd be looking for a franchise RB.

10 mil a year does seem too much for a RB who isn't named Adrian Peterson, but im sure it just a barganing type of thing where they can talk it down to a fair amount.

Also who's to say he isn't a great runner. He didnt have the blocking he's had previously as he does now and he's 2nd in the league. It doesn't look to me like either Leach or Ray are slowiing down either..

Rice's production can be reproduced by a committee. The ground yards can definitely be. And a more efficient passing game would mean the offense didn't need 70+ grabs from the RB position. You don't need a franchise RB to win the Lombardi.

PFF ratings and the eye test say Rice isn't a great runner. Over the past few seasons, the blocking hasn't always been top-notch for McGahee and Ricky either, but there were a good number of times times when they looked better toting the rock than Rice.

[BMOREHAWAII]

I would agree with you if we could find someone like Ricky or McGahee. Look what happened when McGahee went to Denver, obviously he had a lot left in the tank, and Ricky wasn't a slouch.

Alls im sayings is if our 3 rookie/unproven RB's dont pan out to what we want them to, just because they looked good in college it doesn't mean that will continue in the NFL obviously we all know that by now. What would we do then if we let Ray walk or not pay him and let him sit out the season. How many proven starting RB's can do what he does?

Franchise RB's who does what he can do, dont grow on trees. His production is unmatched by any great college runner. Pay the man some money, not overpay but lets get it done.

[rmw10]

BMOREHAWAII, on 22 May 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

I would agree with you if we could find someone like Ricky or McGahee. Look what happened when McGahee went to Denver, obviously he had a lot left in the tank, and Ricky wasn't a slouch.

Alls im sayings is if our 3 rookie/unproven RB's dont pan out to what we want them to, just because they looked good in college it doesn't mean that will continue in the NFL obviously we all know that by now. What would we do then if we let Ray walk or not pay him and let him sit out the season. How many proven starting RB's can do what he does?

Franchise RB's who does what he can do, dont grow on trees. His production is unmatched by any great college runner. Pay the man some money, not overpay but lets get it done.

"Franchise RB" <--- That's the issue. You don't anoint a RB your franchise RB nowadays. Ray has been run into the ground the past couple of years, and it's likely his production will drop in the next couple of years. If you can get him for a good rate, then yes, I can see signing him, but you can't be reliant on one RB anymore. It takes a committee, not just one guy.

[Ed_Reed20]

BMOREHAWAII, on 22 May 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

I would agree with you if we could find someone like Ricky or McGahee. Look what happened when McGahee went to Denver, obviously he had a lot left in the tank, and Ricky wasn't a slouch.

Alls im sayings is if our 3 rookie/unproven RB's dont pan out to what we want them to, just because they looked good in college it doesn't mean that will continue in the NFL obviously we all know that by now. What would we do then if we let Ray walk or not pay him and let him sit out the season. How many proven starting RB's can do what he does?

Franchise RB's who does what he can do, dont grow on trees. His production is unmatched by any great college runner. Pay the man some money, not overpay but lets get it done.

The offense doesn't need an ageing RB with roughly a third of special talent they had in their prime years either. Fresh, hungry legs (like BP and Allen) can be just as effective. Pass protection is another issue, but backs that specialize in pass-blocking are a dime dozen.

Not many RBs have the durability to do all Rice does. But that doesn't mean his total production, or at least most of it, couldn't be equaled by a committee.

I'm not going to let his production blind me to the fact that teams have gotten less from his position and still been very successful. That Rice has been almost an afterthought in recent play-off games and the Ravens have been so close to winning is just another reason he isn't indispensable.