Keepers

[moneyman4110]

So I joined my first keeper league last year and now I need help on who to pick with my 4 keepers. I made a nice trade with someone trying to win the league and I traded AP for Andre Johnson, Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles so now I'm in a tough position. I have 4 spots and a lot of good players. Help me by picking 4 and give me the reason you would keep those players over the others. Thanks

QB Cam Newton
QB Peyton Manning
RB Frank Gore
RB Jamaal Charles
RB Fred Jackson
RB Michael Turner
RB Cedric Benson
RB Roy Helu
WR Andre Johnson
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Jordy Nelson
WR Percy Harvin
TE Brandon Pettigew
TE Vernon Davis
K Billy Cundiff
DEF Steelers

[Gordo52]

Manning,Newton,Charles,Fitzgerald.

[u]Manning[/u]: High risk/high reward. Will have plenty of weapons in DEN. Top 10 QB if healthy.
[u]Newton[/u]: Will just rack up points through the air, and the ground. He is a beast and has a pretty favorable schedule.
[u]Charles[/u]: High risk/high reward. - We dont know how he will respond to that brutal injury, but if he comes back like him oldself then he's a top 4 back.
[u]Fitzgerald[/u]: Kolb will have a little more protection now, Fitz also finally has a reciever to compliment him now. He's also in the prime of his prime, another reason is to just have constant consistency at the WR position. Even though WRs value always changes in fantasy, Fitz is one of those players you want.

If not Fitz then go with Gore or Jackson. Even though 49ers brought in a bunch of WR's and have a BUNCH of Back up RBs, Gore will still be the main back, and should see around 240-250 carries next year. He should produce like a solid #2.

If you think Jackson will go off like he did last year then go with him. It would definently be worth it.

[Ed_Reed20]

[i]Cam[/i] is a given. Even if his rushing TDs drop, the strides he makes as a passer should make up for that.

I'd go with Helu as my RB. Low mileage, more talented than his competition at this point, and he should get plenty of opportunities regardless playing with a rookie QB.

I'd take both Johnson and Fitzgerald. Andre still has at least a few top-notch seasons in him, and Fitzgerald is a machine.

[arnie_uk]

vernon davis could be a wildcard

[Sizzlebshu]

I dont like that trade for, I woulda demanded a rb over Peyton tbh. Peyton has the injury risk, a schedule of tough defenses etc.... but whats done is done

Keepers
Andre Johnson - elite of the elite of wr
Larry Fitz - elite of the elite or WR
Charles - gotta keep your stud rbs
Turner - Gotta Keep your stud rbs

I'm not a fan of keeping the qbs. The reason being they are very replaceable. Qb is deep this year and while you may not get an elite qb you can still get one that can produce easily. I wont keep Fjax here just because of his injury, crowded backfield, and age

[moneyman4110]

Thanks for all the advice guys. I'm gonna wait until the deadline to decide but you've all made really good points. Another thing to mention is I have the 2nd pick in the draft. Let me know if that changes any opinions.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='moneyman4110' timestamp='1336599627' post='1075265']
Thanks for all the advice guys. I'm gonna wait until the deadline to decide but you've all made really good points. Another thing to mention is I have the 2nd pick in the draft. Let me know if that changes any opinions.
[/quote]
It definitley does. You can easily get one of your elite qbs back. Do what I said and keep your elite WR core and good rbs and and see who gets waived. With the second pick you can either get another stud rb (should one be there) or either Peyton/Cam

[Gordo52]

[quote name='moneyman4110' timestamp='1336599627' post='1075265']
Thanks for all the advice guys. I'm gonna wait until the deadline to decide but you've all made really good points. Another thing to mention is I have the 2nd pick in the draft. Let me know if that changes any opinions.
[/quote]Yes it really does actually. I would go Newton,Charles,Helu,Fitz now. Maybe try and get Andre or best available RB with your 2nd pick. In my league QB is the most important position, I'm assuming you play standard so yea, maybe keeping Gore or Turner instead of Cam or Fitz would be better. I dont know how the scoring is set up.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1336622908' post='1075442']
Yes it really does actually. I would go Newton,Charles,Helu,Fitz now. Maybe try and get Andre or best available RB with your 2nd pick. In my league QB is the most important position, I'm assuming you play standard so yea, maybe keeping Gore or Turner instead of Cam or Fitz would be better. I dont know how the scoring is set up.
[/quote]
why wouldnt you keep AJ Fitz Charles Turner. With the second overall pick he will have either peyton or newton back if he really wanted to. As for Helu, do you really trust Shanahan with anything fantasy. I dont.

Let's say he gets Peyton Back

Manning
Andre Johnson
Larry Fitz
Jamaal Charles
Michael Turner

seems like a much better core than any other combo he could have by keeping newton or helu

[Gordo52]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1336631760' post='1075474']
why wouldnt you keep AJ Fitz Charles Turner. With the second overall pick he will have either peyton or newton back if he really wanted to. As for Helu, do you really trust Shanahan with anything fantasy. I dont.

Let's say he gets Peyton Back

Manning
Andre Johnson
Larry Fitz
Jamaal Charles
Michael Turner

seems like a much better core than any other combo he could have by keeping newton or helu
[/quote]
Turner is in the decline. He can go either way but hes been getting injured and is getting old so Idk how long his value will be there. Rather not even risk it. Same thing with Andre, over the last 3 years AJ always dissapoints. And Newton scored the most rushing TDs by a QB ever, and also threw for 4000 yards. I feel you on Helu and Shanahan but I think he's the real deal. He had like 14 catches last year in one game against the 49ers. Plus he's all upside and will be in a RG3 based offense.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='Ravens<3' timestamp='1336648567' post='1075502']
Turner is in the decline. He can go either way but hes been getting injured and is getting old so Idk how long his value will be there. Rather not even risk it. Same thing with Andre, over the last 3 years AJ always dissapoints. And Newton scored the most rushing TDs by a QB ever, and also threw for 4000 yards. I feel you on Helu and Shanahan but I think he's the real deal. He had like 14 catches last year in one game against the 49ers. Plus he's all upside and will be in a RG3 based offense.
[/quote]
Actually with AJ its only 2 years and one of them was in a shortned off season. It only makes sense there would be an injury with that this year.

As for Turner. He is still a better choice than Helu even on a decline. How many rbs do you think will not be kept. Answer is not many. The only rb youd risk that second overall pick on at that point is Richardson who probably wont produce like a stud due to being in the afc north. Id like my chances with Turner at that point.

Like I said you can make an argument, but here's my counter.

Newton overall production goes down - rushing tds passing yds passing tds etc...
He probably wont be the first overall pick in that draft anyway if you wanted to get him back
You field a much more elite scoring team with my method than yours.
Even if you dont get Newton back you get Peyton Manning who will produce just as well if not better than Newton.

[Clutch Ravens]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1336682258' post='1075860']
Actually with AJ its only 2 years and one of them was in a shortned off season. It only makes sense there would be an injury with that this year.

As for Turner. He is still a better choice than Helu even on a decline. How many rbs do you think will not be kept. Answer is not many. The only rb youd risk that second overall pick on at that point is Richardson who probably wont produce like a stud due to being in the afc north. Id like my chances with Turner at that point.

Like I said you can make an argument, but here's my counter.

Newton overall production goes down - rushing tds passing yds passing tds etc...
He probably wont be the first overall pick in that draft anyway if you wanted to get him back
You field a much more elite scoring team with my method than yours.
Even if you dont get Newton back you get Peyton Manning who will produce just as well if not better than Newton.
[/quote]

I'd argue it should be Newton, Charles, Johnson and Fitzgerald.

Turner turned 30 this February, has been on the decline and has struggled late in the year every year. Much better backs than him have had their production fall off a cliff after hitting 30.

I agree on Helu though, he's nothing more than an average back-up, in my opinion, because of Shanahan's RB-by-committee approach and Helu's being relatively average as a player.

Newton, with his rushing numbers, could end up being the top fantasy QB this season. Charles should bounce back with a solid 1000 yard season, at least. Johnson and Fitzgerald are both top end WR1s, keeping them's a no brainer.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='Clutch Ravens' timestamp='1336689571' post='1075949']
I'd argue it should be Newton, Charles, Johnson and Fitzgerald.

Turner turned 30 this February, has been on the decline and has struggled late in the year every year. Much better backs than him have had their production fall off a cliff after hitting 30.

I agree on Helu though, he's nothing more than an average back-up, in my opinion, because of Shanahan's RB-by-committee approach and Helu's being relatively average as a player.

Newton, with his rushing numbers, could end up being the top fantasy QB this season. Charles should bounce back with a solid 1000 yard season, at least. Johnson and Fitzgerald are both top end WR1s, keeping them's a no brainer.
[/quote]
Well assuming he is playing standard he is going to need a good rb2 which Turner is despite his production dropping off at some points. His age shouldnt really be a factor as Gore and Fjax produced well and are both up their. Also the falcons offense will be much better this year, due to the emergence of the passing attack and full off season meaning that the box should empty a bit for Turner.

If he keeps Newton than he has to find another good rb2 and my question is who are you going to take. His best option will most likely be T. Rich who will likely be taken with the 1st pick due to the following probably being kept

Foster
Rice
Shady
AP
Lynch

basically every back worth value. I am sure if he kept Turner he could either get Newton back or if he loses out on Newton grab T Rich who will be a feature back and have value while getting a decent qb like Cutler Manning etc... later

Also factor in the point differential.

If Newton averaged 25 points a game lets say (idk off the top of my head)
You take a guy like Manning who averages 20.

You're at -5

However the difference between a guy like Turner and a guy like Helu may be -10 or more.

Ultimately you take a smaller hit by keeping the rb.

Theres point differencial between qbs and elite qbs is much smaller than that of elite rbs and rbs

Long story short - its easier to find a good qb than it is to find a good rb. The differential in points leads you to keep the rb over the qb.

[moneyman4110]

In case this helps:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TD's: 4 Points
INT's : -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TD's: 6 points
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TD's: 6 points

Some people most likely to not to be kept because some of the teams are stacked:
Roddy White
Stevie Johnson
Julio Jones
A.J. Green
Deangelo Williams/Brandon Marshall

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='moneyman4110' timestamp='1336881655' post='1077045']
In case this helps:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TD's: 4 Points
INT's : -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TD's: 6 points
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TD's: 6 points

Some people most likely to not to be kept because some of the teams are stacked:
Roddy White
Stevie Johnson
Julio Jones
A.J. Green
Deangelo Williams/Brandon Marshall
[/quote]
is this a start 3 wr league or 2 wr 2 rb 1 flex?

[moneyman4110]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1336938453' post='1077204']
is this a start 3 wr league or 2 wr 2 rb 1 flex?
[/quote]
2 RB
2 WR
1 Flex

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='moneyman4110' timestamp='1336965039' post='1077347']
2 RB
2 WR
1 Flex
[/quote]
Yea your rbs are gonna be important. Do what I said.

Keep Fitz, Andre, Turner, Charles. If Richardson is available at pick 2 and no decent rb1 was dropped grab him. Get your qb in a later round. If you can get a decent qb like Ben Roethelisberger or something in the second round your team will be golden.

Your Projected Lineup
Roethelisberger/Cutler/decent QB
Fitz
Andre Johnson
Charles
Turner
Richardson
TE
DEF
K

I think that team will definitley be stronger in this format than keeping Newton and dropping Turner. You could start a wide receiver in your flex, but rbs are usually better to start there.

[gabefergy]

Newton: He will probably be a top 5 QB. I say probably because it will be hard to repeat the number of rushing TDs, but he has a ton of upside.

Jackson: He was having a monster year before the injury, look for a very strong bounce back.

Fitz: Stud WR. Nothing else to say.

Charles or Johnson. I would lean AJ because he is more of a proven commodity, but he also has a history of injuries. Charles is slightly riskier, but has more upside.

[CapoRocky]

Billy??? Are you kidding me??? Give me Praeter anyday.

[flynismo]

[quote name='Clutch Ravens' timestamp='1336689571' post='1075949']
I'd argue it should be Newton, Charles, Johnson and Fitzgerald.

[/quote]

Exactly. Those are the only guys worth keeping anyway, really not a difficult choice here...

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='flynismo' timestamp='1337234615' post='1078741']
Exactly. Those are the only guys worth keeping anyway, really not a difficult choice here...
[/quote]
Curious as to why youd take Newton over having 3 number one backs in a flex league. You're really comfortable putting a receiver in that flex spot for a marginal upgrade at qb. I mean Newton is good, but the numbers he put up werent so much better than other qbs he could get on a weekly basis that youd have to take that kind of risk at your flex spot.

I could understand if the remaining qbs he could get were 10 points or worse than Newton. Different story entirely, but Newton and Peyton are dropped. Ben has a new o line and still has a decent receiving core. Rivers will prolly be there and as bad as he was (wont be that bad again this year) he was still good for 20 a week. Cutler is on the rise in a weak defensive division etc...

[gabefergy]

[quote name='flynismo' timestamp='1337234615' post='1078741']
Exactly. Those are the only guys worth keeping anyway, really not a difficult choice here...
[/quote]
You dont think Fred Jackson is worth keeping?

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1337275135' post='1078893']
You dont think Fred Jackson is worth keeping?
[/quote]
The o line got worse for buffalo losing bell, hes over 30, the passing game isnt strong enough to take pressure off f jax, coming off an injury, and playing in a division with good run defenses. The Jets, and Dolphins. Pats prolly improved a little bit. Not to mention spiller showed he can play too so who knows if there will be split back or rb competition.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1337284574' post='1079040']

The o line got worse for buffalo losing bell, hes over 30, the passing game isnt strong enough to take pressure off f jax, coming off an injury, and playing in a division with good run defenses. The Jets, and Dolphins. Pats prolly improved a little bit. Not to mention spiller showed he can play too so who knows if there will be split back or rb competition.
[/quote]
They just extended Jackson though, so they obviously plan on playing him. He was a top 5 RB last season until he got hurt which is why I find it surprising ppl are down on him. Didn't the Bills draft Cordy Glenn? Their Oline was really good last year, I don't think losing 1 player will have a huge effect although I don't know how often then ran off LT. I think they probably will use Spiller as well, but Jackson is clearly the better back.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1337291719' post='1079149']
They just extended Jackson though, so they obviously plan on playing him. He was a top 5 RB last season until he got hurt which is why I find it surprising ppl are down on him. [b]Didn't the Bills draft Cordy Glenn? Their Oline was really good last year, I don't think losing 1 player will have a huge effect although I don't know how often then ran off LT[/b]. I think they probably will use Spiller as well, but J[b]ackson is clearly the better back.[/b]
[/quote]
The reason people are down on him are

1. Injury concern at an old age - unknown performance
2. Unclear role - they will play him, but depending on the injury etc... Spiller may split carries which would ruin both their value
3. Glenn is an unproven prospect playing one of the most important positions in a division that mainly upgraded its defense.

This is vs Turner who
1. is the feature back
2. has some factor in a pass heavy offense where he will be uncovered a lot due to other targets
3. Defenses in his division suck
4. Defenses will not stack the box due to the potency of that passing game and focus more on stopping the pass vs stopping the run

Not to mention Jackson will go against Tom Brady 2x a year meaning running the ball wont usually happen as they will likely play from behind ([profanity deleted] happens, but the consensus is Brady will be able to turn it into a high fast paced scoring game.)

Theres really just too much going against Jackson for you to feel safe keeping him. Its sorta like keeping Mcfadden. Mcfadden is arguably second best back in the league next to Peterson - best back in fantasy when healthy. One season he was healthy for 13 games an owners go great dvidends from it and then the next he played 5 games and screwed over a lot of owners.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1337295580' post='1079186']
The reason people are down on him are

1. Injury concern at an old age - unknown performance
2. Unclear role - they will play him, but depending on the injury etc... Spiller may split carries which would ruin both their value
3. Glenn is an unproven prospect playing one of the most important positions in a division that mainly upgraded its defense.

This is vs Turner who
1. is the feature back
2. has some factor in a pass heavy offense where he will be uncovered a lot due to other targets
3. Defenses in his division suck
4. Defenses will not stack the box due to the potency of that passing game and focus more on stopping the pass vs stopping the run

Not to mention Jackson will go against Tom Brady 2x a year meaning running the ball wont usually happen as they will likely play from behind ([profanity deleted] happens, but the consensus is Brady will be able to turn it into a high fast paced scoring game.)

Theres really just too much going against Jackson for you to feel safe keeping him. Its sorta like keeping Mcfadden. Mcfadden is arguably second best back in the league next to Peterson - best back in fantasy when healthy. One season he was healthy for 13 games an owners go great dvidends from it and then the next he played 5 games and screwed over a lot of owners.
[/quote]

Oh dont get me started on Michael Turner. He has been declining for 2 straight years and was absolutely horrid down the stretch last season. He also doesnt offer anything in receiving which Jackson does bring to the table. Other than being the feature back, there is absolutely no upside with Turner.

I really dont think there is much going against Jackson. He had almost 1400 yds from scrimmage in 9 games last season. His injury was a broken bone, not something that takes a long time to recover from like a torn ACL. Even if his stats go down because opposing defenses got better (which is a stretch) or because Spiller has a bigger role he should still get at least 1500 total yds and probably 10 TDs. Just think about this, Turner only scored 40 more points than Jackson last year despite playing 7 more games! Jackson 18 pts/game, Turner 12.7 pts/game.

Oh by the way, Turner has 600 more career carries than Jackson does, and they are close in age so if in reality Turner is much more likely to have significant regression than Jackson.

[Sizzlebshu]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1337297051' post='1079203']
Oh dont get me started on Michael Turner. He has been declining for 2 straight years and was absolutely horrid down the stretch last season. He also doesnt offer anything in receiving which Jackson does bring to the table. Other than being the feature back, there is absolutely no upside with Turner.

I really dont think there is much going against Jackson. He had almost 1400 yds from scrimmage in 9 games last season. His injury was a broken bone, not something that takes a long time to recover from like a torn ACL. Even if his stats go down because opposing defenses got better (which is a stretch) or because Spiller has a bigger role he should still get at least 1500 total yds and probably 10 TDs. Just think about this, Turner only scored 40 more points than Jackson last year despite playing 7 more games! Jackson 18 pts/game, Turner 12.7 pts/game.

Oh by the way, Turner has 600 more career carries than Jackson does, and they are close in age so if in reality Turner is much more likely to have significant regression than Jackson.
[/quote]
Look Im not saying Turner is great by any stretch just safer lol. He obviously has much less upside than Jackson, but he has almost 0 bust factor. Also part of the reason Turner declined last year was that the Falcons offense went through serious probs overall including their o line and also that they tried to give they keys to the offense to Matty Ice and failed miserably for half the season. Again, I wont say Turner will put up great numbers but if he gives you consistent production its fine. He's just safe thats all.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='Sizzlebshu' timestamp='1337298141' post='1079207']
Look Im not saying Turner is great by any stretch just safer lol. He obviously has much less upside than Jackson, but he has almost 0 bust factor. Also part of the reason Turner declined last year was that the Falcons offense went through serious probs overall including their o line and also that they tried to give they keys to the offense to Matty Ice and failed miserably for half the season. Again, I wont say Turner will put up great numbers but if he gives you consistent production its fine. He's just safe thats all.
[/quote]
Yeah, I can agree that Turner is probably a bit safer simply because there isnt anyone else to hand the ball off to. I think the Falcons are trying to become more of a passing offense though, so I would be a bit worried about the number of touches Turner gets. I've owned Turner before and he just isnt the kind of player that will win you a fantasy league. Jackson could win a league for you, so yeah if you want to go safe Turner is an acceptable option, although I think I would rather have AJ than Turner in this particular dilemna.

Safe Route: Fitz, Newton, Turner, AJ ( I think Charles is a big risk as well coming off an ACL and with the addition of Hillis)

Risky Route: Fitz, Newton, Jackson, Charles/AJ