71 replies to this topic

[flynismo]

A lot of us here follow college ball, and fancy ourselves as scout wannabes (myself especially!)

So I got to thinking, are our opinions anymore or less valid than the 'experts' and actual scouts?

I'm truly curious about this, so please be as honest as possible when answering this thread.

Over the years, who did you predict would be a good player that few others did, and were proven correct?
Likewise, who did not play up to your expectations?

I'll start off. First, here are some of my most notable misses:



1. Cam Newton

My opinion: I thought that he would take a long time to develop, and thought at best, he would be a Mike Vick clone.

Reality: He is on his way to superstardom.




2. Jeremy Beal

My opinion: I thought this kid was severely underrated, and if it were up to me, I would have drafted him in the second or third round last year.

Reality: Who's Jeremy Beal again?



3. Torrey Smith

My opinion: I thought that he would take a long time to develop also, and often refered to him as "the next Bernard Berrian".

Reality: He will be a top 5 WR within the next 2 - 3 years if he puts it all together. At worst, he is a very good player and teammate who should make a Pro Bowl or two before his career is over. I have grown to love this kid!


4. Matt Ryan

My opinion: A mistake prone, noodle armed chump who will be overvalued by some QB needy team. A second round talent who will go in the top 5 due to his position.

Reality: A mistake prone, noodle armed chump who turned out to be a pretty good player after all.



5. Broderick Bunkley

My opinion: If they both fell to us, I couldn't decide whether to take Bunkley or Ngata. I decided on Ngata because I felt he had a little more upside, and fit our scheme better.

Reality: Well, I was right about Ngata having more upside, lol!


Those are the most notable misses I can think of; next I'll post my hits.

In the mean time, let's compare notes and show me your lists!

[flynismo]

As i look over the years of my hits and misses, I've noticed a trend....I have a poor track record when projecting QBs. I'm at roughly 50% when evaluating 1st and 2nd round QBs. I'm doing roughly the same with FB and safeties.

My strong points have been OT, OG and in the front seven of the defense, and pretty good with WR -- although when I miss on the WR, I really miss badly (Torrey, I also thought Larry Fitzgerald was the next Plaxico/Keyshawn, and Roddy White would be a marginal #1).

[Mt. Crushmore]

For some reason when there is a Pro style QB and a more running QB I always go with the Pro style one. I thought Rodger was better than Smith and was right. I also thought that Newton would take a while to develop and he has proved us wrong. I thought that from last years draft the best 2 QBs would be Locker and Gabbert. So far I would say I have been half right with that. Newton really surprised me and we all know how Gabbert has been.

[Ravens<3]

Last year when the Texans drafted Reed and Watt I had a feeling that the both of them would be deadly.
But I also thought Brandon Harris was a beast, and I wanted Leonard Hankerson over Torrey Smith lol. I also thought Aldon Smith was going to be a bust.

Edited by Ravens<3, 24 February 2012 - 10:32 PM.

[The Raven]

I too was wrong about Cam Newton. He certainly did have a great year. I also was not too high on Torrey, but I didn't hate him either. I was very neutral towards him, but I'm very glad he played so well.

[indianstick]

Torrey Smith
I am proud to say that I was right about him, after the NC state game I was sure he was going to be a great playmaker at the next level. I didn't think he would go in the first bc of his drops cornerns but I was hoping he would slip to us in the second round. I thought of how flacco would always overthrow mason and clayton on 9 routes and if they were just a little faster they probably would of been able to seperate from the defender and get to the ball.

Aaron curry
I thought he was going to be an elite lb. A lot of people thought he would be good, but i thought he was going to be easily be the rookie defensive player of the year and really change the seahawks defense. Obviously that didn't happen, he has been mediocare at best and although he played decent on the raiders last season he doesn't look like he'll be an elite lb anytime soon.

Joe Haden
I watched a lot of UF football when he played for them and he was easily my favorite corner in the 2010 draft. I thought he was going to be a shutdown corner pretty early in his career and was right. Besides the Aj green hiccup last season, hes lived up to his top ten pick status

Michael Crabtree
haha I thought he was going to come into the NFL with a bang and be the next fitzgerald. Him holding out kind of screwed all that up, but he still had almost 50 catches in 11 games his rookie year, and had 70 catches this year, he is not even half as good as i thought he was going to be and i don't know if he'll ever be an elite top 5 WR.

Hakeem Nicks
I thought he was the second best wr in the draft after crabtree and when we traded up and he was still on the board i was almost sure we would pick him seeing as how our wr crew needed some help. But we didn't and I knew we missed a great chance to grab a young number 1 wr to grow with flacco.

Justin Houston
I thought he was going to be a the best olb out of last years class. I picked him with the patriots first, first round pick in the forum's mock draft last year. Marijuana charges dropped him to the cheifs in the 3rd round last year but he played pretty well with them ended the season with 5.5 sacks. Despite his impressive rookie season, it's not looking like he'll be the best olb of of the draft last year (cough cough aldon smith).

Edited by indianstick, 24 February 2012 - 10:49 PM.

[Purple_ICE 81]

As far as last years draft I was very pleased with us drafting torrey smith. I knew that whoever we drafted would hvae flaws here and there and after A.j. Greene and Julio Jones were off the board the draft for wideouts didnt go too deep. And the fact that Torrey had good production his last year in maryland and he performed pretty well at the combine (other than the size of his itty bitty hands) lol he looked like a top 5 WR in the draft. Other than him the only ones I liked were Jonathan Baldwin but he is probably Vontaze Burficts cousin because in pre seaon he got in a fight in the locker rrom and broke his hand costing him nearly the whole season so he was a headache to have. Ilike Greg Little, Titus Young, Austin Pettis to a degree. But honestly I just liked Torrey when I watched him at the combine there was just something about him and especially because he went to Maryland. But when pre season came around I shouted BUUUUST when he was dropping passes an hoped for us to sign a veteran receiver FAST. But after his big splash at St Louis where his first NFL catch was a td and he caught game winners and big time plays I liked him and with this offseason he should get even more talented.

My thought son Cam Newton were that he had skill and that he would make it in a few years but he should have stayed at Auburn to get a little more football smarts down. He didnt really memorize Auburns playbook and had trouble reading plays, and reading certain defenses but he did astounding in his rookie year he will be a solid player in the future.

I expected ALOT more from Blaine Gabbert...I thought this guy was going to be a beast. He looked like the most solid QB in the draft and the most pro ready, but he stunk up the place in Jacksonville. It took him a while to learn the playbook and become a starter and even when he did the offense looked terrible. But near the end of the season he started getting back in synch but I really was surprised even Christian Ponder looked better than Gabbert.

But yea that really goes to show you neeever know. Except when it comes to Vontaz Burfict he will be in CFL with T.O. in no time lol

[hawkprey]

Some of the predictions that came true:
2010:
Golden Tate:
Had a lot of hype, I didn't think he'd do well and I thought he'd go to Seattle. Check.

Jason Pierre-Paul:
Didn't know a lot about him, but I knew he was gonna be good eventually (he was a project). And I was pretty sure he was gonna be a Giant (they love their DE's).

C.J. Spiller/Ryan Mathews:
Two of my "bust" picks (Mathews was my #1 glorified bust prediction). Didn't know where they'd go, but thought they were overhyped. Mathews has the disadvantage of being in a bad run team in SD, but he's still not proven anything so far.

2011 (when I really started paying attention to the draft):
Adrian Clayborn:
I wanted him at #32(after trading back), and he was taken earlier. He had 7.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles his rookie year. Didn't think he was the best, but thought he'd be the best value D-lineman of all the top-rated ones in the first or high second round. I think I was close.

Aldon Smith:
I really wanted Smith even though I knew we had no chance at him. He was my #1 draft choice overall and my guess for DROY. He was the runner-up for DROY. Pretty close.

Muhammad Wilkerson:
I posted in last year's Wilkerson thread that if we didn't take him, he'd go to the Jets, and he'd be a bust. This was when half the board was clamoring for him. 3 sacks and 35 tackles combined with a bad run defense says I'm right (so far).

Wrong (sorta) predictions:
Torrey Smith:
I thought Torrey couldn't catch away from his body, and for the most part I was right. But he did far better than when I thought.

Cam Newton:
Didn't think he'd do as well as he did. Thought he'd just be mediocre.

[Purple_ICE 81]

I was also questioning that Cj Spiller should have been graded as a top 10 pick overall a few years back I always thought he was just brute force speed really not much else and he got drafted by the bills at 9 he kinda sucks now a days

[JO_75]

I think the biggest miss for me had to be Brady Quinn in the 2007 Draft. I remember sitting there watching him fall down the Draft Board and as he got closer to the Ravens, I was yelling at my TV for us to trade up. I just remember thinking he is going to be a great QB and that if we could land him, we would have our Franchise QB. Then when Cleveland traded back up for him, I remember thinking Cleveland just ended their search for a Franchise QB, boy I was so off on Brady Quinn.

[ClintLB8]

I actually thought Cam Newton was going to be a complete stud honestly..
I watched him play a lot at Auburn and I just knew his size, speed, and arm combo would be successful and successful quick in the NFL..
I thought Kareem Jackson (while I am a Bama fan) would be a complete bust.. Right so far.
I thought Pernell McPhee would be a pretty big surprise.. but even I couldn't have predicted how great he would really big this quick. I was actually looking for him to be a stand up rush linebacker honestly.
I predicted Brian Cushing to be a complete stud and Clay Matthews to be a complete bust.. 1 out of 2.
I thought Tim Tebow would prove a lot of critics wrong and be a dominate NFL quarterback.. I would say I was wrong because I predicted dominate.
I thought Rolando McClain would be the best inside linebacker by now (thought Ray Lewis would have retired by now). Wrong again.
I predicted Reggie Bush to be a bust and predicted Vince Young to revolutionize the QB position. 1 out of 2.


Now.. My predictions for this year's class.

Russell Wilson will be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL by his 4th year.
Von Burfict will be out of the league by his 3rd year.
Trent Richardson will be a top 3 running back in the NFL by his 2nd year.
Courtney Upshaw is the next dominate rush linebacker (think James Harrison but not dirty).
William Vlachos ends up being the best center in this year's class (Peter Konz is injury prone during his career).
The receiver from Appalachian State, Quick, will be a top 5 receiver in the NFL by his 3rd year.
Andrew Luck and RG III both live up to expectations and both are good starters in the NFL their rookie years.
Vinny Curry will be the next Jerry Hughes = bust.
Brandon Moseley (OT from Auburn) will be a dominate right tackle in the NFL by year 3.

[flynismo]

As far as last years draft I was very pleased with us drafting torrey smith. I knew that whoever we drafted would hvae flaws here and there and after A.j. Greene and Julio Jones were off the board the draft for wideouts didnt go too deep. And the fact that Torrey had good production his last year in maryland and he performed pretty well at the combine (other than the size of his itty bitty hands) lol he looked like a top 5 WR in the draft. Other than him the only ones I liked were Jonathan Baldwin but he is probably Vontaze Burficts cousin because in pre seaon he got in a fight in the locker rrom and broke his hand costing him nearly the whole season so he was a headache to have. Ilike Greg Little, Titus Young, Austin Pettis to a degree. But honestly I just liked Torrey when I watched him at the combine there was just something about him and especially because he went to Maryland. But when pre season came around I shouted BUUUUST when he was dropping passes an hoped for us to sign a veteran receiver FAST. But after his big splash at St Louis where his first NFL catch was a td and he caught game winners and big time plays I liked him and with this offseason he should get even more talented.

My thought son Cam Newton were that he had skill and that he would make it in a few years but he should have stayed at Auburn to get a little more football smarts down. He didnt really memorize Auburns playbook and had trouble reading plays, and reading certain defenses but he did astounding in his rookie year he will be a solid player in the future.

I expected ALOT more from Blaine Gabbert...I thought this guy was going to be a beast. He looked like the most solid QB in the draft and the most pro ready, but he stunk up the place in Jacksonville. It took him a while to learn the playbook and become a starter and even when he did the offense looked terrible. But near the end of the season he started getting back in synch but I really was surprised even Christian Ponder looked better than Gabbert.

But yea that really goes to show you neeever know. Except when it comes to Vontaz Burfict he will be in CFL with T.O. in no time lol

Blaine Gabbert fooled me as well. I thought he would be pretty solid...nothing special, but a Chad Pennington kinda guy.
I also thought Mallet was the best QB in the class.

[flynismo]

Russell Wilson will be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL by his 4th year.
Von Burfict will be out of the league by his 3rd year.
Trent Richardson will be a top 3 running back in the NFL by his 2nd year.
Courtney Upshaw is the next dominate rush linebacker (think James Harrison but not dirty).
William Vlachos ends up being the best center in this year's class (Peter Konz is injury prone during his career).
The receiver from Appalachian State, Quick, will be a top 5 receiver in the NFL by his 3rd year.
Andrew Luck and RG III both live up to expectations and both are good starters in the NFL their rookie years.
Vinny Curry will be the next Jerry Hughes = bust.
Brandon Moseley (OT from Auburn) will be a dominate right tackle in the NFL by year 3.

I bolded the two I don't agree with, but I can totally see all the other predictions coming true.

and lol @ Burfict being out of the NFL within 3 years -- I laugh, because it actually wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Edited by flynismo, 25 February 2012 - 12:39 AM.

[hawkprey]

I bolded the two I don't agree with, but I can totally see all the other predictions coming true.

and lol @ Burfict being out of the NFL within 3 years -- I laugh, because it actually wouldn't surprise me in the least.

He's gonna hang it up after 3 back-to-back Super Bowls as the Ravens' starting ILB.

Really though, we need a separate thread for 2012 predictions. Also I need to own up to being on the Beal bandwagon last year. That did NOT pan out. But it was before the combine. It's a different game before the combine. Mocks right now are going to look ridiculous by April.

Edited by hawkprey, 25 February 2012 - 12:45 AM.

[Clutch Ravens]

Some of the predictions that came true:
2010:
Golden Tate:
Had a lot of hype, I didn't think he'd do well and I thought he'd go to Seattle. Check.

Jason Pierre-Paul:
Didn't know a lot about him, but I knew he was gonna be good eventually (he was a project). And I was pretty sure he was gonna be a Giant (they love their DE's).

C.J. Spiller/Ryan Mathews:
Two of my "bust" picks (Mathews was my #1 glorified bust prediction). Didn't know where they'd go, but thought they were overhyped. Mathews has the disadvantage of being in a bad run team in SD, but he's still not proven anything so far.

2011 (when I really started paying attention to the draft):
Adrian Clayborn:
I wanted him at #32(after trading back), and he was taken earlier. He had 7.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles his rookie year. Didn't think he was the best, but thought he'd be the best value D-lineman of all the top-rated ones in the first or high second round. I think I was close.

Aldon Smith:
I really wanted Smith even though I knew we had no chance at him. He was my #1 draft choice overall and my guess for DROY. He was the runner-up for DROY. Pretty close.

Muhammad Wilkerson:
I posted in last year's Wilkerson thread that if we didn't take him, he'd go to the Jets, and he'd be a bust. This was when half the board was clamoring for him. 3 sacks and 35 tackles combined with a bad run defense says I'm right (so far).

Wrong (sorta) predictions:
Torrey Smith:
I thought Torrey couldn't catch away from his body, and for the most part I was right. But he did far better than when I thought.

Cam Newton:
Didn't think he'd do as well as he did. Thought he'd just be mediocre.

I think I just posted so much that it seemed like half the board, although he was pretty popular.

Considering the complete lack of pass rush around him 3 sacks is solid for a 3-4 DE in his rookie year. He also chalked up 49 Tackles (per NFL.com) and a forced fumble. I thought his best fit was in the 4-3, where he'd have less pressure to constantly eat blocks and be allowed to beat his guy and get up field more often.

In 2010, my guy was Joe Haden. That one I'm much more proud of, but it probably had as much to do with me seeing a ton of Florida games and being high on a number of their players.

Edited by Clutch Ravens, 25 February 2012 - 01:02 AM.

[JO_75]

2009 Draft:
I thought Aaron Curry would be the next great LB but I was wrong there.

- I knew Mark Sanchez would never be an elite QB and would be a bust and so far I'm looking to have been right on Mark Sanchez.

- I thought Andre Smith would bust and so far I'm right.

- I knew Crabtree wouldn't be an elite receiver, to this day I still thought the 49ers should have taken Orapko over Crabtree because I thought Orapko would have been dominant and so far he has done that.

2010 Draft:

- Like many, I expected Rolando McClain to be a dominant LB from the beginning.
- Brandon Graham, I expected him to be an elite pass rusher but I didn't think he would be drafted by a 4-3 team.

- I thought Dan Williams would be the next great NT but you never hear about him and I believe he got benched one time.

- I wanted the Ravens to draft Kyle Wilson because I expected him to be the next shut down corner but damn, you never hear about him.

- I thought the Colts got a steal with Jerry Hughes but he has been a bust so far. Maybe a change to a 3-4 and being a OLB will help him show his potential.

2011 NFL Draft:

- I like many thought Carolina drafted a QB bust in Cam Newton, and should have went with Clausen and drafted either Dareus or AJ Green but Newton seems to be heading toward stardom in the NFL.

Edited by JO_75, 25 February 2012 - 01:01 AM.

[GrimCoconut]

Russell Wilson will be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL by his 4th year.
Von Burfict will be out of the league by his 3rd year.
Trent Richardson will be a top 3 running back in the NFL by his 2nd year.
Courtney Upshaw is the next dominate rush linebacker (think James Harrison but not dirty).
William Vlachos ends up being the best center in this year's class (Peter Konz is injury prone during his career).
The receiver from Appalachian State, Quick, will be a top 5 receiver in the NFL by his 3rd year.
Andrew Luck and RG III both live up to expectations and both are good starters in the NFL their rookie years.
Vinny Curry will be the next Jerry Hughes = bust.
Brandon Moseley (OT from Auburn) will be a dominate right tackle in the NFL by year 3.

I really agree with a lot of this. I really like Vlachos a lot as a center as well as Blake. I hope Vlachos falls into the late rounds because I would love to pick him up there.

I am also not high at all on Vinny Curry. As for Richardson, man he does look good. I really like Trent and would love to have him on the team.

[indianstick]

2009 Draft:
I thought Aaron Curry would be the next great LB but I was wrong there.

- I knew Mark Sanchez would never be an elite QB and would be a bust and so far I'm looking to have been right on Mark Sanchez.

- I thought Andre Smith would bust and so far I'm right.

- I knew Crabtree wouldn't be an elite receiver, to this day I still thought the 49ers should have taken Orapko over Crabtree because I thought Orapko would have been dominant and so far he has done that.

2010 Draft:

- Like many, I expected Rolando McClain to be a dominant LB from the beginning.
- Brandon Graham, I expected him to be an elite pass rusher but I didn't think he would be drafted by a 4-3 team.

- I thought Dan Williams would be the next great NT but you never hear about him and I believe he got benched one time.

- I wanted the Ravens to draft Kyle Wilson because I expected him to be the next shut down corner but damn, you never hear about him.

- I thought the Colts got a steal with Jerry Hughes but he has been a bust so far. Maybe a change to a 3-4 and being a OLB will help him show his potential.

2011 NFL Draft:

- I like many thought Carolina drafted a QB bust in Cam Newton, and should have went with Clausen and drafted either Dareus or AJ Green but Newton seems to be heading toward stardom in the NFL.

i can't believe i forgot about Kyle wilson. He was my favorite cb in the draft after joe haden and I was REALLY high on him. I felt that he was the perfect dback for us and screamed at my tv when we traded out. I thought he was going to be what webb is right now, haha oops

[Corvus Amplus]

I want to talk about the 2010 draft, the draft where I actually paid attention to the players.

Ravens:

Of Course everyone thought Sergio Kindle was going to be a great duo with Terrell Suggs.

I was high on him after watching the BCS Championship on how he just wrecks havoc in the backfield.

2nd Round might have been a great value since he was considered the best 3-4 OLB in the draft.

After that freak accident and a year out of football really set him back. It's sad that we wasted a 2nd rounder. I think we should've paid attention to Sean Lee, ILB, who would be a beast in our defense.

I think the trade out of the 1st round was the right choice because the Cowboys traded one spot up to get Dez Bryant. I'm happy that they have to deal with his headcase and not us. Dez is talented, but troubled.

From draft picks 26-43, I was surprised by the number of players that we passed, but now I feel that we made the right choice

Devin McCourty - He had his best season as a cover 2 CB, but he had a slump as a Man to man cover corner.
Jared Odrick - I was high on this guy because investing talent in the trenches is always a good thing, but after seeing him have an injured and inconsistent season, the FO made the right choice.
Jerry Hughes - I saw the 40 time on this kid and thought his speed can really help our pass rush, but he is a bust in the 4-3 set. Really happy we didn't invest our 1st here, but I think he will excel in a 3-4 set where he doesn't have to face an OT
Kyle Wilson - I thought this guy was a steal for the Jets because he was considered one of the better CB, maybe the top CB. I guess I was gullible for listening to those draft analyst.
Brian Price - This guy had a explosive 1st step and could've helped out pass rush, but he was built like a 4-3 DT, which doesn't fit our system.
Arrelious Benn - There was a lot of hype on this WR because of his speed. However, after watching tape, I thought he can blow the top off the defense, but then he still hasn't breakout yet.

Only exception:
Ron Gronkowski - Our FO thought he had a medical red flag on his back, which dropped him out of the 1st round. It sucks that the Patriots were aggressive to jump ahead of us to get him and not us.

Best Move:
I was happy when we landed Terrence Cody with our 57th pick. Pairing Cody and Ngata brough back memories of Sam Adams and Tony Siragusa. Nobody is going to run on the Ravens! Only if Sergio Kindle showed up, we would've had a explosive pass rush.

Most Questionable Move:

When the Eagles traded up to the 13th Spot, I was thinking Earl Thomas, which was a ballhawk CB/S hybrid. I think his ability would really help them. However, they took Brandon Graham, who I was really high on due to his explosiveness in the Senior Bowl. I bet the Eagles are regretting this pick because that acl injury set back Graham and he's facing an uphill battle for a starting spot with Trent Cole and Jason Babin there. If they had Earl Thomas with that secondary, Thomas might have a field day on interceptions.

Edited by Corvus Amplus, 25 February 2012 - 02:54 AM.

[SpearSrai]

I predicted Reggie Bush to be a bust and predicted Vince Young to revolutionize the QB position. 1 out of 2.

This could be a whole other thread, but are you calling Reggie Bush a 'bust'? Like JaMarcus Russell, Robert Gallery and Vernon Gholston?