The Final Word On Joe's Season (Stats)

[hawkprey]

I know this is playoff fever time, but I thought it was a good chance to reflect on Joe's season with a few numbers before we hear all about how much Joe sucks as masked by the word "inconsistent".

Well playing a defensive heavy schedule did its toll, and Joe ended with an 80.9 passer rating.
However, after doing the numbers, the 16 teams we faced gave up an average of an 81 passer rating.

By comparison, Rodgers played a schedule giving up an average of an 88.9 passer rating.

It should be noted that there were outliers affecting Joe's average, because Joe faced only two teams that gave up a rating better than 90 and only three better than 85.


Since passing defenses are usually ranked by yards, Joe played 10 games against the top 9 defenses, including 6 against the top 5. The defenses averaged 8.3, meaning on an ordinary day, Joe Flacco would have to throw against the 8th ranked pass defense. Rodgers on an average day threw against the 21st ranked pass defense.

This means next week against Houston's pass defense is no big deal for Joe. He's had to face those defenses all year.

[b]At home:[/b]
Since our game is at home, here's how Joe's done at M&T:
Passer rating: 85.9
4 of 8 games against the rest of the top five in defensive passer rating (we're the first)
Average contains one big outlier (Colts). Averages to about 79 including colts, median is about 76.

[keebl3rs]

Translation: Joe is a baws.

[flynismo]

Yeah but he has the deer in headlights look and doesn't yell and scream enough

[gabefergy]

I think its interesting that no one ever talks about the cupcake defenses that Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and even Stafford carved up this year. NFC defenses are atrocious!! Especially their pass-defenses. Oh and AFC East is pretty bad too except for the Jets. Rodgers played 1 legitimate defense all season, 1!! That defense? The Chiefs. And guess what? They lost.

[theFRANCHISE]

Statistically, Joe showed some regression but he improved significantly in his mechanics and ability to make clutch throws. That's all you can really ask out of a fourth-year QB, aside from a winning record and a division title.

[Purple Punishment]

Hence, when it comes down to brass tacks and teams like GB and NE have to face what they haven't faced all year, a real defense, they are going to be stuck like chuck.

In my mind. I see Mike Tyson knocking out any ol normal person. In steps a Hulked Up, Hulk Hogan, he punches him over and over but he ain't budging and he doesn't have an answer for hulkamania.

Then we give em the big boot. A leg drop and ride off into the sunset wearing the Championship belt. The real one, not that Aaron Rodgers discount double check

[flynismo]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1326092424' post='940656']I think its interesting that no one ever talks about the cupcake defenses that Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and even Stafford carved up this year. NFC defenses are atrocious!! Especially their pass-defenses. Oh and AFC East is pretty bad too except for the Jets. Rodgers played 1 legitimate defense all season, 1!! That defense? The Chiefs. And guess what? They lost.[/quote]


my brother and I just talked about that last week...he agrees with my SB picks of BAL vs NO, but being a Redskins fan who is used to underachievment, insists that we will get torched.

Nevermind the fact that we beat them very convincingly last time we played (the game certainly wasnt as close as the score says it was).

While I dont want to undermine what Brees and Rodgers accomplished this year -- what does it say about today's NFL when previously only two players in the history of the game threw for 5k yards, then this season THREE guys do it -- with Eli narrowly missing being the fourth.

5k yards is the new 4k yards.

[Ed_Reed20]

It won't show up in the statistics but I think Joe took a step forward in his ability to improvise this year. He can still get better at it, but when he rolls out of the pocket now or has to avoid pressure, he keeps his eyes down-field more.

[Ravenslifer]

People like to conveniently forget that with a very short offseason, Joe had to work with a new receiver in Lee Evans, who then got hurt and missed half the season. Then he had to work primarily with a rookie in Torrey Smith who proved at several points this year that they still are not on quite the same page, which is to be expected. On top of that, Joe is working with two second year tight ends who never started a game before, and Dickson has also been plagued by drops this year. And Boldin was out injured for the final two regular season games. On top of everything, Joe is playing with an offensive line that has been reshuffled at several points during this season and was full of new players. Football is a game of chemistry, and people seem to forget just how good Joe's chemistry was with Mason and Heap. And finally, Joe can do nothing when he makes good throws and luck is just not with him that day. Like the Arizona game. He throws 3 passes that are caught at the 1 or 2 yard line, and on almost any other day those are 3 TDs. But what ends up happening is that Joe gets nothing, and Ray Rice gets 3 1-yard rushing touchdowns. And the pick wasn't really a pick, since it bounced backwards off of Torrey's hands and the defender made a heads-up play. Right there, 23 TDs, 11 INTs (very close to his TDs, and INTs last year) becomes 20 TDs, 12 INTs.

I expect Joe to play well in the playoffs, but I expect him to statistically be a much, much better player [i]next year[/i] when he has a full offseason to work with his receivers.

[jdynamite]

[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1326092424' post='940656']
I think its interesting that no one ever talks about the cupcake defenses that Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and even Stafford carved up this year. NFC defenses are atrocious!! Especially their pass-defenses. Oh and AFC East is pretty bad too except for the Jets. Rodgers played 1 legitimate defense all season, 1!! That defense? The Chiefs. And guess what? They lost.
[/quote]

The Bears is a legitimate Defense with an illegitimate offense. That costs them along with injuries......
Giants defense has its moments of great play...

[Radinho84]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1326112978' post='940727']
People like to conveniently forget that with a very short offseason, Joe had to work with a new receiver in Lee Evans, who then got hurt and missed half the season. Then he had to work primarily with a rookie in Torrey Smith who proved at several points this year that they still are not on quite the same page, which is to be expected. On top of that, Joe is working with two second year tight ends who never started a game before, and Dickson has also been plagued by drops this year. And Boldin was out injured for the final two regular season games. On top of everything, Joe is playing with an offensive line that has been reshuffled at several points during this season and was full of new players. Football is a game of chemistry, and people seem to forget just how good Joe's chemistry was with Mason and Heap. And finally, Joe can do nothing when he makes good throws and luck is just not with him that day. Like the Arizona game. He throws 3 passes that are caught at the 1 or 2 yard line, and on almost any other day those are 3 TDs. But what ends up happening is that Joe gets nothing, and Ray Rice gets 3 1-yard rushing touchdowns. And the pick wasn't really a pick, since it bounced backwards off of Torrey's hands and the defender made a heads-up play. Right there, 23 TDs, 11 INTs (very close to his TDs, and INTs last year) becomes 20 TDs, 12 INTs.

[b]I expect Joe to play well in the playoffs, but I expect him to statistically be a much, much better player [i]next year[/i] when he has a full offseason to work with his receivers.[/b]
[/quote]
i think this is fair. but the question for me is: will we be a better team if joe throws for 4500 yards? i don´t think so. we got to the playoffs the last 4 years. for me the most important is to get to the playoffs and have a shot at the superbowl. i could´t care less about stats. flacco throwing for 4500 yards means that ray rice will get less touches. if that happens a lot of people will be screaming for more running plays.

at the end of the day it does´t matter how you win the game. the only thing that matters is that you win the game. it does´t have to be pretty. i know that those offensive teams like ne or no are very nice to watch. but we will never be a team like that. we are the ravens. we play smash mouth football. we have the best defense in the nfl. those are the things that matter the most to me!!!

as long as you can see that someone is getting better, everything is good. and flacco improved in a way that he showed some very good throws on the big stage!!! he won games for us this year. he will get better. but he will never be a fantasy football monster like drew breed. and we don´t need him to be!!!

[Ravenslifer]

[quote name='jdynamite' timestamp='1326118132' post='940762']
The Bears is a legitimate Defense with an illegitimate offense. That costs them along with injuries......
Giants defense has its moments of great play...
[/quote]

After the Bears lost Cutler their season was pretty much over. And their passing defense is interesting, in that they are 28th in the league in yards given up, but 8th in opposing qb rating.

[callahan09]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1326112978' post='940727']
People like to conveniently forget that with a very short offseason, Joe had to work with a new receiver in Lee Evans, who then got hurt and missed half the season. Then he had to work primarily with a rookie in Torrey Smith who proved at several points this year that they still are not on quite the same page, which is to be expected. On top of that, Joe is working with two second year tight ends who never started a game before, and Dickson has also been plagued by drops this year. And Boldin was out injured for the final two regular season games. On top of everything, Joe is playing with an offensive line that has been reshuffled at several points during this season and was full of new players. Football is a game of chemistry, and people seem to forget just how good Joe's chemistry was with Mason and Heap. And finally, Joe can do nothing when he makes good throws and luck is just not with him that day. Like the Arizona game. He throws 3 passes that are caught at the 1 or 2 yard line, and on almost any other day those are 3 TDs. But what ends up happening is that Joe gets nothing, and Ray Rice gets 3 1-yard rushing touchdowns. And the pick wasn't really a pick, since it bounced backwards off of Torrey's hands and the defender made a heads-up play. Right there, 23 TDs, 11 INTs (very close to his TDs, and INTs last year) becomes 20 TDs, 12 INTs.

I expect Joe to play well in the playoffs, but I expect him to statistically be a much, much better player [i]next year[/i] when he has a full offseason to work with his receivers.
[/quote]
Good points!

[Ravenslifer]

[quote name='Radinho84' timestamp='1326118386' post='940763']
i think this is fair. but the question for me is: will we be a better team if joe throws for 4500 yards? i don´t think so. we got to the playoffs the last 4 years. for me the most important is to get to the playoffs and have a shot at the superbowl. i could´t care less about stats. flacco throwing for 4500 yards means that ray rice will get less touches. if that happens a lot of people will be screaming for more running plays.

at the end of the day it does´t matter how you win the game. the only thing that matters is that you win the game. it does´t have to be pretty. i know that those offensive teams like ne or no are very nice to watch. but we will never be a team like that. we are the ravens. we play smash mouth football. we have the best defense in the nfl. those are the things that matter the most to me!!!

as long as you can see that someone is getting better, everything is good. and flacco improved in a way that he showed some very good throws on the big stage!!! he won games for us this year. he will get better. but he will never be a fantasy football monster like drew breed. and we don´t need him to be!!!
[/quote]

Oh, I didn't mean yards, I could care less if Joe throws for 1000 yards or 5000 yards. I meant things like TD-INT ratio. If Joe puts up the numbers he put up last year, 3500 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, for the rest of his career, and carries it over into the playoffs, it will be perfect for this team. Actually I think he might in time cut down on his INTs and be in the single digits. 20 TDs, 10 INTs, is about Roethlisberger numbers every season.

[keebl3rs]

I don't recall Joe having his "Sophmore slump". So.. if this is his down year.. I'll take it!

[True]

Well good thing he has beat the best defenses remaining in the post season (Texans and Niners) because the Saints, Packers, and Patriots have defenses ranked all ranked 25 or less. The passing game has to pick up in the post season.

[Suggs Package]

One thing that most people forget are the pass interference penalties that don't show up in stats. We led the lead in pass interference yardage.

Overall, Flacco has an above average year, but not an amazing one. This is easily his second worse year statistically and yet he's still right on the cusp of being a top ten QB in the NFL however. That's if you consider the defenses he's had to compete against.

He has improved greatly in his decision making and pocket awareness as he was only sacked on about 5.9% of his dropbacks versus 7.9% last year. Some of that can be attributed to the OL play, but a lot of it was Joe realizing when to get rid of the ball. Consequently, throwing the ball away may be the real reason his completion percentage is much lower than last years, but he still has to improve in that area. Also, although we had a lot of drops, those drops are about average considering the amount of passing attempts we had.

Pretty much the main difference between this year and last year is less sacks and less completions. If he had maintained his completion percentage and yards per attempt from last year, Flacco would've passed for 4016 yards instead of 3610, or about 25 more yards a game given the same amount of attempts. Flacco would have lost 110 less yards from sacks than last year if the passing attempts are equal, but that only equates to gaining an additional 7 yards a game.

In total, Flacco produced about 18 less yards per game this year than last year. If I could assume anything from these stats, its that Flacco is best when he holds the ball too long haha.

[callahan09]

[quote name='Suggs Package' timestamp='1326129650' post='941006']
One thing that most people forget are the pass interference penalties that don't show up in stats. We led the lead in pass interference yardage.

Overall, Flacco has an above average year, but not an amazing one. This is easily his second worse year statistically and yet he's still right on the cusp of being a top ten QB in the NFL however. That's if you consider the defenses he's had to compete against.

He has improved greatly in his decision making and pocket awareness as he was only sacked on about 5.9% of his dropbacks versus 7.9% last year. Some of that can be attributed to the OL play, but a lot of it was Joe realizing when to get rid of the ball. Consequently, throwing the ball away may be the real reason his completion percentage is much lower than last years, but he still has to improve in that area. Also, although we had a lot of drops, those drops are about average considering the amount of passing attempts we had.

Pretty much the main difference between this year and last year is less sacks and less completions. If he had maintained his completion percentage and yards per attempt from last year, Flacco would've passed for 4016 yards instead of 3610, or about 25 more yards a game given the same amount of attempts. Flacco would have lost 110 less yards from sacks than last year if the passing attempts are equal, but that only equates to gaining an additional 7 yards a game.

In total, Flacco produced about 18 less yards per game this year than last year. If I could assume anything from these stats, its that Flacco is best when he holds the ball too long haha.
[/quote]
I would absolutely love to know how you find stats like the one where you said the Ravens lead the league in pass interference yardage gained. I use pro-football-reference and NFL.com and neither one makes it easy to find those stats if they even have them at all. I can't find them anyway. Maybe a good search would come up with something, I dunno, but where do you go?

[Radinho84]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1326118781' post='940775']

Oh, I didn't mean yards, I could care less if Joe throws for 1000 yards or 5000 yards. I meant things like TD-INT ratio. If Joe puts up the numbers he put up last year, 3500 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, for the rest of his career, and carries it over into the playoffs, it will be perfect for this team. Actually I think he might in time cut down on his INTs and be in the single digits. 20 TDs, 10 INTs, is about Roethlisberger numbers every season.
[/quote]
okay. agreed!

[scrock]

I don't think Joe's number were that greatly affected by the good defenses we have played although I'm sure that plays some part, the real reason his numbers are down is because we went for youth and speed, we worked in a rookie WR and two 2nd year TEs....Lee Evans got injured and he never really got it going....the playcalling has been a factor

this offense went through growing pains and at times they still have these lulls, usually when we have a lead...i wish Torrey Smith ran full speed on all his routes but he doesnt...

[Suggs Package]

[quote name='callahan09' timestamp='1326130490' post='941023']
I would absolutely love to know how you find stats like the one where you said the Ravens lead the league in pass interference yardage gained. I use pro-football-reference and NFL.com and neither one makes it easy to find those stats if they even have them at all. I can't find them anyway. Maybe a good search would come up with something, I dunno, but where do you go?
[/quote]

I actually read it in an article last week. I can't find the URL right now though. We also led the NFL in opposing penalty yardage, which kinda supports it. Here are the links http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-penalty-yards-per-game and http://www.footballdb.com/penalty-differential.html?sort=oppyds. You have to be careful as one doesn't differentiate between accepted and declined penalties. When I find that link, I'll post it.

[callahan09]

[quote name='Suggs Package' timestamp='1326131725' post='941041']

I actually read it in an article last week. I can't find the URL right now though. We also led the NFL in opposing penalty yardage, which kinda supports it. Here are the links [url="http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-penalty-yards-per-game"]http://www.teamranki...-yards-per-game[/url] and [url="http://www.footballdb.com/penalty-differential.html?sort=oppyds."]http://www.footballd...ml?sort=oppyds.[/url] You have to be careful as one doesn't differentiate between accepted and declined penalties. When I find that link, I'll post it.
[/quote]
Thanks!

[Suggs Package]

[quote name='callahan09' timestamp='1326132087' post='941049']
Thanks!
[/quote]

Found the article! it was in Football Outsiders [url="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2012/walkthrough-spreadsheet-surfer"]http://www.footballo...adsheet-surfer[/url].

Scroll down to "Longest Penalty" and it'll talk about how the Ravens force the most DPI penalties in the NFL and that play that Mike Adams got called for the 60 yard DPI penalty when we played Cleveland.

[callahan09]

[quote name='Suggs Package' timestamp='1326132440' post='941051']

Found the article! it was in Football Outsiders [url="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2012/walkthrough-spreadsheet-surfer"]http://www.footballo...adsheet-surfer[/url].

Scroll down to "Longest Penalty" and it'll talk about how the Ravens force the most DPI penalties in the NFL and that play that Mike Adams got called for the 60 yard DPI penalty when we played Cleveland.
[/quote]
Thanks! Very interesting. Too bad they don't give a table with all of those statistics. I'd like to see the breakdown on number of pass interference penalties & yards by both receiver & passer. It'd be nice to try to conceive of an adjusted passer rating based on these numbers too, like adjusting total yards, TDs if the the interference occurred in the end zone, completion percentage update, etc., but it just wouldn't work out because there's no way to adjust AWAY the events that occurred as a direct result of the interference that wouldn't have happened if the interference was a catch instead.

[baltravens]

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1326081883' post='940463']
I know this is playoff fever time, but I thought it was a good chance to reflect on Joe's season with a few numbers before we hear all about how much Joe sucks as masked by the word "inconsistent".

Well playing a defensive heavy schedule did its toll, and Joe ended with an 80.9 passer rating.
However, after doing the numbers, the 16 teams we faced gave up an average of an 81 passer rating.

By comparison, Rodgers played a schedule giving up an average of an 88.9 passer rating.

It should be noted that there were outliers affecting Joe's average, because Joe faced only two teams that gave up a rating better than 90 and only three better than 85.


Since passing defenses are usually ranked by yards, Joe played 10 games against the top 9 defenses, including 6 against the top 5. The defenses averaged 8.3, meaning on an ordinary day, Joe Flacco would have to throw against the 8th ranked pass defense. Rodgers on an average day threw against the 21st ranked pass defense.

This means next week against Houston's pass defense is no big deal for Joe. He's had to face those defenses all year.

[b]At home:[/b]
Since our game is at home, here's how Joe's done at M&T:
Passer rating: 85.9
4 of 8 games against the rest of the top five in defensive passer rating (we're the first)
Average contains one big outlier (Colts). Averages to about 79 including colts, median is about 76.
[/quote]
I think you are [b]over-analyzing [/b]a quarterback's productivity. We evaluate a quarterback based on the strength of schedule [b]and [/b]I believe that that is concluded by a team's previous year's won/loss record. To say Flacco faced [b]more[/b] tough defenses than another quarterback is giving him more credit than he is due. This is a team game. Look at the 81 passer-rating Flacco earned for the year as a valid indicator of how he performed. I just think you are over-simplifying things. There are just too many variables that come into play. 80.9 and 12/16 wins are the best criteria in evaluating a NFL quarterback for a given year. The standard formula for evaluating a quarterback takes into account things like touchdowns, yardage-thrown-for, interceptions, etc.
I see the 44 wins in 4 seasons that Flacco accomplished as the best way to evaluate a starting NFL quarterback. [b]I believe his 44 wins is a record.[/b]

[Gordo52]

He had his worse season but was still successful. Plus what QBs #s are gonna look great when you got a beast at RB, RR27

[hawkprey]

[quote name='baltravens' timestamp='1326135941' post='941123']
[u]I think you are [b]over-analyzing [/b][/u]a quarterback's productivity. We evaluate a quarterback based on the strength of schedule [b]and [/b]I believe that that is concluded by a team's previous year's won/loss record. To say Flacco faced [b]more[/b] tough defenses than another quarterback is giving him more credit than he is due. This is a team game. Look at the 81 passer-rating Flacco earned for the year as a valid indicator of how he performed.[u] I just think you are over-simplifying things.[/u] There are just too many variables that come into play. 80.9 and 12/16 wins are the best criteria in evaluating a NFL quarterback for a given year. The standard formula for evaluating a quarterback takes into account things like touchdowns, yardage-thrown-for, interceptions, etc.
I see the 44 wins in 4 seasons that Flacco accomplished as the best way to evaluate a starting NFL quarterback. [b]I believe his 44 wins is a record.[/b]
[/quote]
Pick one of those arguments and get back to me. I'm not sure what you're getting at.

[baltravens]

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1326153412' post='941463']
Pick one of those arguments and get back to me. I'm not sure what you're getting at.
[/quote]
I believe you are over-analyzing the quarterback position and disregarding/overshadowing the 'quarterback-rating formula' and how many wins a starting quarterback achieves. This is a team game. If it were not, we would have a rating system on how many effective blocks an offensive lineman would make, sacks he yields, etc.
There are 11 players on offense, not one in Flacco.
As a side note, I think Cam may be adversely affecting Flacco with regard to the whole audible issue.

[hawkprey]

[quote name='baltravens' timestamp='1326155543' post='941505']
I believe you are over-analyzing the quarterback position and disregarding/overshadowing the 'quarterback-rating formula' and how many wins a starting quarterback achieves. This is a team game. If it were not, we would have a rating system on how many effective blocks an offensive lineman would make, sacks he yields, etc.
There are 11 players on offense, not one in Flacco.
As a side note, I think Cam may be adversely affecting Flacco with regard to the whole audible issue.
[/quote]
Well I didn't go out and state "This is exactly how good Joe is". I was just showing how difficult Joe's schedule was defensively (that is, pass-defensively). Strength of schedule usually gets lost among analysts who have too many teams to cover to figure it out. I can't say for sure, but I'd guess that Joe had the hardest schedule of any QB. The next hardest would probably belong to someone else in the AFC North, but our games against the Jets and Chargers made ours more difficult than Cleveland, Pittsburgh, or Cincy's.

[baltravens]

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1326081883' post='940463']
I know this is playoff fever time, but I thought it was a good chance to reflect on Joe's season with a few numbers before we hear all about how much Joe sucks as masked by the word "inconsistent".

Well playing a defensive heavy schedule did its toll, and Joe ended with an 80.9 passer rating.
However, after doing the numbers, the 16 teams we faced gave up an average of an 81 passer rating.

By comparison, Rodgers played a schedule giving up an average of an 88.9 passer rating.

It should be noted that there were outliers affecting Joe's average, because Joe faced only two teams that gave up a rating better than 90 and only three better than 85.


Since passing defenses are usually ranked by yards, Joe played 10 games against the top 9 defenses, including 6 against the top 5. The defenses averaged 8.3, meaning on an ordinary day, Joe Flacco would have to throw against the 8th ranked pass defense. Rodgers on an average day threw against the 21st ranked pass defense.

This means next week against Houston's pass defense is no big deal for Joe. He's had to face those defenses all year.

[b]At home:[/b]
Since our game is at home, here's how Joe's done at M&T:
Passer rating: 85.9
4 of 8 games against the rest of the top five in defensive passer rating (we're the first)
Average contains one big outlier (Colts). Averages to about 79 including colts, median is about 76.
[/quote]
I don't think it is bad information, but I would be one to note that Flacco's completion percentage was down, I think 57/58% this year. That I would bring up when someone says he played 'tough' or 'the toughest' defenses this year.