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JohnnyBoy8102

Ray Lewis Gets "Picked On" In Coverage?

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It seems to be the popular notion that Ray Lewis is picked on by opposing QBs when in coverage and has been the biggest "liability" when he is out there.

I wanted to test this theory and here is what I came up with:


[u][b]Basic Coverage Stats [/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ayanbadejo- 15/23, 65.2%, 98 Yards, 77 YAC, 0 TD, 0 int, 1 pd, 74.2 QB Rating (180 pass coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ellerbe- 8/10, 80%, 86 yards, 55 YAC, 0 td, 0 int, 0 pd, 102.5 QB Rating (92 pass coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]McClain- 25/35, 71.4%, 318 Yards, 166 YAC, 1 td, 1 int, 5 pd, 97.1 QB Rating (296 Pass coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lewis-19/27. 70.4%, 229 Yards, 119 YAC, 0 Tds, 1 int, 6 pd, 80.6 QB Ratings (333 Pass Coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[u][b]Completions per coverage snap[/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ayanbadejo- 180 coverage snaps/15 completions = 1 reception every 12 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ellerbe- 92 snaps/8 receptions = 1 reception every 11.5 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]McClain- 296 snaps/25 receptions = 1 reception every 11.84 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lewis-333 snaps/19 receptions = 1 Reception every 17.52 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[u][b]Times targeted per coverage snap[/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ayanbadejo- 180 snaps/23 targets = 1 target every 7.82 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ellerbe- 92 snaps/10 targers = 1 target every 9.2 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]McClain- 296 snaps/35 targets= 1 target every 8.46 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lewis- 333 snaps/27 Targets = 1 Target every 12.3 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]So Lewis gets targeted the least per coverage snap by opposing QBs and gives up the fewest receptions per coverage snap yet he is the "biggest" liability on the field?[/font][/color]

[u][b][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]Notes[/color][/font][/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]*Ellerbe does have a small sample size[/font][/color]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]*Ayanbadejo has not been asked to cover a WR[/font][/color]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]*Lewis has given up 2 receptions to WR that skew his numbers (Ward-31 yards/16 Yac in week 1, Cribbs-23 yards/9 YAC in week 16[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]I like the work Ayanbadejo is doing and would continue to use him in his current role BUT Lewis is hardly being "picked on". I also would continue to rush Lewis since he has graded out positively for ILB pass rushing wise w/ 10 QB Disruptions in 71 pass rush opportunities. The average for his position is a tick under 1 disruption every 8 pass rushes. [/font][/color]
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It seems to be the popular notion that Ray Lewis is picked on by opposing QBs when in coverage and has been the biggest "liability" when he is out there.

I wanted to test this theory and here is what I came up with:


[u][b]Basic Coverage Stats [/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ayanbadejo- 15/23, 65.2%, 98 Yards, 77 YAC, 0 TD, 0 int, 1 pd, 74.2 QB Rating (180 pass coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ellerbe- 8/10, 80%, 86 yards, 55 YAC, 0 td, 0 int, 0 pd, 102.5 QB Rating (92 pass coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]McClain- 25/35, 71.4%, 318 Yards, 166 YAC, 1 td, 1 int, 5 pd, 97.1 QB Rating (296 Pass coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lewis-19/27. 70.4%, 229 Yards, 119 YAC, 0 Tds, 1 int, 6 pd, 80.6 QB Ratings (333 Pass Coverage snaps)[/font][/color]

[u][b]Completions per coverage snap[/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ayanbadejo- 180 coverage snaps/15 completions = 1 reception every 12 coverage snap[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ellerbe- 92 snaps/8 receptions = 1 reception every 11.5 coverage snap[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]McClain- 296 snaps/25 receptions = 1 reception every 11.84 coverage snap[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lewis-333 snaps/19 receptions = 1 Reception every 17.52 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[u][b]Times targeted per coverage snap[/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ayanbadejo- 180 snaps/23 targets = 1 target every 7.82 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ellerbe- 92 snaps/10 targers = 1 target every 9.2 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]McClain- 296 snaps/35 targets= 1 target every 8.46 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lewis- 333 snaps/27 Targets = 1 Target every 12.3 coverage snaps[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]So Lewis gets targeted the least per coverage snap by opposing QBs and gives up the fewest receptions per coverage snap yet he is the "biggest" liability on the field?[/font][/color]

[u][b][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]Notes[/color][/font][/b][/u]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]*Ellerbe does have a small sample size[/font][/color]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]*Ayanbadejo has not been asked to cover a WR[/font][/color]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]*Lewis has given up 2 receptions to WR that skew his numbers (Ward-31 yards/16 Yac in week 1, Cribbs-23 yards/9 YAC in week 16[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]I like the work Ayanbadejo is doing and would continue to use him in his current role BUT Lewis hardly being "picked on". I also would continue to rush Lewis since he has graded out positively for ILB pass rushing wise w/ 10 QB Disruptions in 71 pass rush opportunities. The average for his position is a tick under 1 disruption every 8 pass rushes. [/font][/color]
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Thank you

Great stats. You should also post the other "elite" ilbs stats you messaged me just so everyone can see how he compares.
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Great way to show the stats and present facts not just baseless opinion. Ray still has plently left. Let him catch up from the four games he had to sit and he'll perform at a crisp, high level.
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Outside of Ray, the other ILBs are terrible against pass coverage. Considering the way that receivers are no longer scared to go across the middle and how the TE is becoming a primary target, the Ravens should invest in an ILB who is really good in coverage skills to adjust to the new passing league.
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Good work. I think it's funny that some people wanna say Replace Ray or it's time for him to retire but not a lot of threads about Ed Reed's worst career season. He is whiffing on tackles and he isn't causing turnovers.

Will the Real Ed Reed please stand up?

Ray deserved his pro bowl nod and he did not win it on his name alone. Hopefully Ray will take Gresham out of the equation on sunday
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[quote name='True' timestamp='1325097044' post='925169']
Outside of Ray, the other ILBs are terrible against pass coverage. Considering the way that receivers are no longer scared to go across the middle and how the TE is becoming a primary target, the Ravens should invest in an ILB who is really good in coverage skills to adjust to the new passing league.
[/quote]

I like your theory however it is hard to find a truly elite coverage ILB at this point.

Every week you see ILB get beat. D'Qwell Jackson got beat hard multiple times by Ray Rice last week, Timmons vs Rice Week 1, Willis vs McCoy earlier in the season, etc..... I'm not sure such a player exists who can still be stout enough vs the run.
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[quote name='JohnnyBoy8102' timestamp='1325094690' post='925134']
It seems to be the popular notion that Ray Lewis is picked on by opposing QBs when in coverage and has been the biggest "liability" when he is out there.
[/quote]

Great breakdown. I've noticed that a lot of people go on what they think they remember from the games and not what actually happened. Even I get surprised sometimes when I break down the numbers.
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By demand:

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ray Lewis- 19/27, 70.4%, 229 yards, 119 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 PD, 80.6 QB Rating[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Patrick Willis- 38/56, 67.9%, 333 yards, 204 YAC, 2 TD, 1 int, 12 PD, 87.9 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Brian Urlacher- 37/52, 71.2%, 365 yards, 222 YAC, 2 TD, 3 INT, 7 PD, 79.4 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Derrick Johnson- 35/49, 71.4%, 379 Yards, 306 YAC, 3 TD, 2 int, 9 PD, 97.2 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Brian Cushing- 33/44. 75%, 307 yards, 213 YAC, 1 TD, 2 INT, 5 PD, 82.3 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Karlos Dansby: 33/50, 66%, 333 Yards, 232 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5 PD, 76.5 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]D'Qwell Jackson: 26/33, 78.8%, 285 Yards, 117 Yac, 2 TD, 1 INT, 3 PD, 110.2 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Paul Posluszny: 33/49, 67.3%, 387 Yards, 114 YAC, 3 TD, 2 INT, 9 PD, 94.5 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Sean Lee: 46/59, 78%, 466 Yards, 324 YAC, 3 TD, 4 INT, 7 PD, 88.3 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Desmond Bishop: 43/53, 81.1%, 522 Yards, 259 YAC, 2 TDs, 0 int, 120.3 QB Rating [/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lawrence Timmons: 18/23, 78.3%, 191 Yards, 140 YAC, 2 TD, 1 INT, 112.2 QB Rating [/font][/color]
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[quote name='DMH_in_WA' timestamp='1325097248' post='925181']

Great breakdown. I've noticed that a lot of people go on [b]what they think they remember [/b]from the games and not what actually happened. Even I get surprised sometimes when I break down the numbers.
[/quote]

This is true. People tend to only remember highlights and low lights and not everything in between. I wanted to avoid that and fill in the gaps so I took the time and crunched the numbers.
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[quote name='JohnnyBoy8102' timestamp='1325097158' post='925177']

I like your theory however it is hard to find a truly elite coverage ILB at this point.

Every week you see ILB get beat. D'Qwell Jackson got beat hard multiple times by Ray Rice last week, Timmons vs Rice Week 1, Willis vs McCoy earlier in the season, etc..... I'm not sure such a player exists who can still be stout enough vs the run.
[/quote]
Yes it's going to be hard to find someone to fill in for Ray because no one can replace him. I think the Ravens will look at the talent in the draft this year to find someone close enough to man the middle who is a jack of all trades.
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Just another bit of info regarding this that johnny sent me via message

Prior to the last two games (browns and Chargers - BEFORE HIS INJURY):

14/21, 66.7%, 154 Yards, 89 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 PD, 68.35 QB Rating

And the majority of that damage was on 1 play in Week 1 (31 yard pass to Hines Ward w/ 16 YAC)

and johnny can answer this, but that was ranked no.1 in ILBs in the league wasnt it?
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[quote name='arnie_uk' timestamp='1325097514' post='925194']
Just another bit of info regarding this that johnny sent me via message

Prior to the last two games (browns and Chargers - BEFORE HIS INJURY):

14/21, 66.7%, 154 Yards, 89 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 PD, 68.35 QB Rating

And the majority of that damage was on 1 play in Week 1 (31 yard pass to Hines Ward w/ 16 YAC)

[b]and johnny can answer this, but that was ranked no.1 in ILBs in the league wasnt it?[/b]
[/quote]

I don't recall off hand but if a player is in the 70s-mid 80s with qb rating he is doing pretty.

Over 90 is getting a little rough and over 100 is obviously not very good.

My point being is that there IS NOT a coverage ILB out there who is playing pure lights out. I think people get an idea that Ray is playing "bad" and every other ILB is dominating in coverage.

Imagine this board if Ray traded places with D'Qwell Jackson on that Ray Rice TD reception? People would have been calling for him to be cut immediately!
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[quote name='Alexir' timestamp='1325097143' post='925174']
Good work. I think it's funny that some people wanna say Replace Ray or it's time for him to retire but not a lot of threads about Ed Reed's worst career season. He is whiffing on tackles and he isn't causing turnovers.

Will the Real Ed Reed please stand up?

Ray deserved his pro bowl nod and he did not win it on his name alone. Hopefully Ray will take Gresham out of the equation on sunday
[/quote]
Ed is on pace for his highest tackle totall since 06, hes only credited with 1 FF but I know he has atleast 1 more, and in 04 when he won DPOY he had 8 PDef this year he also has 8. Just because he doesnt have 9 picks that doesnt mean hes having a bad season.

I think people are doing the same thing with both Ray and Ed, they expect all-time great showings so when they're only just really good people think they're too old and cant play anymore, and they do this without looking at the stats. Cause as this thread shows the stats prove that theyre still doing their job at a high level.
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[quote name='MLGWL20' timestamp='1325103340' post='925286']
Ed is on pace for his highest tackle totall since 06, hes only credited with 1 FF but I know he has atleast 1 more, and in 04 when he won DPOY he had 8 PDef this year he also has 8. [b]Just because he doesnt have 9 picks that doesnt mean hes having a bad season.[/b]

I think people are doing the same thing with both Ray and Ed, they expect all-time great showings so when they're only just really good people think they're too old and cant play anymore, and they do this without looking at the stats. Cause as this thread shows the stats prove that theyre still doing their job at a high level.
[/quote]

I said this after the 49ers game, but Ed has fewer picks because people threw at him a lot last year and this year they are avoiding him like the plague. NFL Network showed a segment where Alex Smith had Vernon Davis wide open for a 15+ yard gain, looked straight at Davis, then hesitated and held the ball, turned his head and looked for Ed Reed. Even though Ed was too far away to do anything, he was still in the back of Smith's mind. That hesitation led to one of Alex's 9 sacks. It's like Revis. Last year, nobody threw at him, so he had no stats. This year, people are picking on him more, and so he has more INTs.
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[quote name='JohnnyBoy8102' timestamp='1325097158' post='925177']


I like your theory however it is hard to find a truly elite coverage ILB at this point.

Every week you see ILB get beat. D'Qwell Jackson got beat hard multiple times by Ray Rice last week, Timmons vs Rice Week 1, Willis vs McCoy earlier in the season, etc..... I'm not sure such a player exists who can still be stout enough vs the run.
[/quote]
Exactly and I have been saying this for a long time on here. Most , if not every ILB in the game is getting beat here and there with some worse than others. They playing the center of the field with many assignments and the hardest player to defend is the TE b/c he can hit you with many routes in the center of the field as oppose to CBs playing outside the hash marks where the out of bounds line is like an extra defender for them.
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[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1325104179' post='925301']

I said this after the 49ers game, but Ed has fewer picks because people threw at him a lot last year and this year they are avoiding him like the plague. NFL Network showed a segment where Alex Smith had Vernon Davis wide open for a 15+ yard gain, looked straight at Davis, then hesitated and held the ball, turned his head and looked for Ed Reed. Even though Ed was too far away to do anything, he was still in the back of Smith's mind. That hesitation led to one of Alex's 9 sacks. It's like Revis. Last year, nobody threw at him, so he had no stats. This year, people are picking on him more, and so he has more INTs.
[/quote]

Same type of deal with Ray. In his 11 games played he would be on pace for these numbers in16 games:

128 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 int, 3 Forced Fumbles, 6 Stuffs, & 9 PD

But since he missed 4 games people tend to think his "lower" numbers are due to not playing well or making plays.

He will finish the season this week with nearly 100 tackles & 15+ splash plays in just a dozen games.
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Very nice analysis. Thanks. I heard one of the bigwigs from Google in an interview bemoaning the low quality of political debate in this country , as it rarely relies on factual analysis. He suggested we change the slogan on our currency , as follows : " In God We Trust. Everyone Else Must Provide Data ". Ha! We need some of that when discussing football , too.

BTW , where did you get your stats ?
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[quote name='BenDufusberger' timestamp='1325106268' post='925330']
Very nice analysis. Thanks. I heard one of the bigwigs from Google in an interview bemoaning the low quality of political debate in this country , as it rarely relies on factual analysis. He suggested we change the slogan on our currency , as follows : " In God We Trust. Everyone Else Must Provide Data ". Ha! We need some of that when discussing football , too.

[b]BTW , where did you get your stats ?[/b]
[/quote]

I buckled down and paid the yearly subscription fee to pro football focus to get numbers like snap counts, targets, drops, etc.
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[quote name='JohnnyBoy8102' timestamp='1325106531' post='925332']

I buckled down and paid the yearly subscription fee to pro football focus to get numbers like snap counts, targets, drops, etc.
[/quote]

OK , thanks. I'm always hoping some freebie sites will pop up with this kind of info.
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Well played sir!

Also, talking about Ed is a little off-topic. But it's obvious that teams are avoiding him. You never say, "looks like this QB is picking on Ed". Truth be told, I can't say I've ever heard anyone say Ray "picked" on in coverage as well.

There are a ton of popular misconceptions around the NFL floating about. Saying that Ray is a liability in coverage is really just inaccurate at best, and downright slander at worst.
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Could you post the ones for CBs here please?
It would be greatly appreciated.

Not to get off topic of course, I just want Webb, Jimmy, and Cary's stats.
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[quote name='Token' timestamp='1325108317' post='925347']
Could you post the ones for CBs here please?
It would be greatly appreciated.

Not to get off topic of course, I just want Webb, Jimmy, and Cary's stats.
[/quote]

I don't have their season stats but here's what PFF had to say about Jimmy and Webb after the game last week:

[quote]
After a rough outing last week, [b]Jimmy Smith[/b] (+3.9) showed the type of coverage skills that made the Ravens draft him in the first round back in April. Targeted eight times in coverage, giving up four catches for just 32 yards, more importantly he didn’t allow a reception longer than 12 yards and didn’t give up a touchdown. Opposite Smith,[b] Lardarius Webb[/b] (+3.4) decided to show all of us at PFF how upset he was at being left off our Pro Bowl Team with another outstanding performance. Once again he didn’t give up a touchdown, allowing just two catches for 15 yards while picking off one pass and breaking up another on the five passes thrown into his coverage. The interception, his fifth of the season, a team high, was similar to the one he returned for a touchdown against the New York Jets earlier in the year. On 3rd-and-1 with 10:21 left in the first quarter he jumped in front of a poorly thrown pass to Mohamed Massaquoi (-0.7), had he got there a fraction of a second earlier then he very easily could have ran this one back for a score too.
[left][url="http://www.profootba...ravens-week-16/"]Link[/url][/left][left][/quote][/left]
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[quote name='Token' timestamp='1325108317' post='925347']
Could you post the ones for CBs here please?
It would be greatly appreciated.

Not to get off topic of course, I just want Webb, Jimmy, and Cary's stats.
[/quote]



Jimmy Smith-15/33, 45.5%, 215 Yards, 55 YAC, 3 TDs, 2 int, 8 PD, 72.2 QB Rating (172 Snaps in Coverage)

Cary Williams- 54/101, 53.5%, 794 Yards, 207 YAC, 4 TDs, 0 Int, 13 PD, 92.6 QB Rating (539 Snaps in Coverage)

Lardarius Webb- 49/85, 57.6%, 585 Yards, 162 YAC, 0 TDs, 5 INT, 18 PD, 54.3 QB Rating (520 Snaps in Coverage)
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Also, Ray has had some dynamite games in coverage this season:

Week 2: 2/3, 15 Yards, 3 YAC
Week 3: 0/1
Week 4: 2/7, 7 yards, 8 YAC, 1 PD
Week 7: 0/0
Week 8: 1/2, 19 Yards, 3 YAC, 1 PD
Week 9: 1/3, 12 Yards, 5 YAC, 1 PD
Week 10: 3/3, 13 Yards, 15 YAC

On the season just 19 receptions in the 11 games he has played.
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stats are fun and all but if you watch games its rather obvious ray is a liability in pass coverage, and this is coming from a guy who worships ray like he is god..
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[quote name='JohnnyBoy8102' timestamp='1325111941' post='925407']



Jimmy Smith-15/33, 45.5%, 215 Yards, 55 YAC, 3 TDs, 2 int, 8 PD, 72.2 QB Rating (172 Snaps in Coverage)

Cary Williams- 54/101, 53.5%, 794 Yards, 207 YAC, 4 TDs, 0 Int, 13 PD, 92.6 QB Rating (539 Snaps in Coverage)

Lardarius Webb- 49/85, 57.6%, 585 Yards, 162 YAC, 0 TDs, 5 INT, 18 PD, 54.3 QB Rating (520 Snaps in Coverage)
[/quote]

Interesting stats. Jimmy has had about 1/3 the snaps of our other two CBs. If you multiply his numbers by 3 , he'd have 6 INTs and 24 PDs. Not bad.

Of course , he'd also have 9 TDs scored against him.

That comparison makes Webb's zero TD streak look all the more impressive.
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[quote name='52Kia Kaha92' timestamp='1325112377' post='925415']
stats are fun and all but if you watch games its rather obvious ray is a liability in pass coverage, and this is coming from a guy who worships ray like he is god..
[/quote]

Everyone else must provide data.
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[quote name='JohnnyBoy8102' timestamp='1325111941' post='925407']



Jimmy Smith-15/33, 45.5%, 215 Yards, 55 YAC, 3 TDs, 2 int, 8 PD, 72.2 QB Rating (172 Snaps in Coverage)

Cary Williams- 54/101, 53.5%, 794 Yards, 207 YAC, 4 TDs, 0 Int, 13 PD, 92.6 QB Rating (539 Snaps in Coverage)

Lardarius Webb- 49/85, 57.6%, 585 Yards, 162 YAC, 0 TDs, 5 INT, 18 PD, 54.3 QB Rating (520 Snaps in Coverage)
[/quote]

Thanks for posting this.
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