Why Flacco's, Reed's and Cundiff's Numbers are Down

[Ravenslifer]

I would just like to put this out there to make myself feel better, but this entire season I've heard all sorts of things about several of our players, and people questioning their abilities, without bothering to actually [b]understand what is going on in the game by doing RESEARCH[/b]. And then they act like guys who've shown ability their entire careers suddenly suck and need to be replaced. Without maybe first doing some research and trying to see if there is a logical explanation for why guys aren't as successful as they have been in the past. So there are 3 players I'd like to involve in this discussion. First is Joe Flacco, since people love to kill him. Second is Ed Reed, since there was a post on him recently. And third is Billy Cundiff, because I just commented on him.

Let's start with Flacco's numbers:

First of all, he's on pace to finish with the lowest completion percentage of his career, his TD-INT ratio is down, and blah, blah blah. Well, if you look at his game splits (meaning a breakdown of exactly the kind of passes he's been throwing) you'll notice that he's thrown a lot more deep passes this season than he ever has in his career. Deep passes are naturally more difficult to complete than short ones, so of course his completion percentage will go down. His receivers have also dropped a lot of balls, you can look up the stats for yourself. And finally, people seem to think it's so easy to just plug in players and go. People, last year Torrey Smith was playing for the Maryland Terrapins! Of course he's going to drop balls and not be on the same page with Flacco. Lee Evans has played 4 games with Flacco total. Of course they're not on the same page. Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta had more playing time in 1 game this year than they did all of last year. Of course they don't have the same rapport with Flacco that Todd Heap did. You're going from a team last year with 4 veteran wide receivers and a tight end who've all played in the league for 7+ years to a rookie and 2 second year tight ends. There is going to be an adjustment period, and it might not be until next season that we see diviends. Flacco is much better this year than he was last year. Do you remember what he did in Cinci last year - 4 INTs. Last year he was 2-2 against Pitt and Cinci and had never beaten Roethlisberger head to head. This year against Pittsburgh and Cinci he is 3-0, and has 6 TDs to 1 pick in three games. Progress. I personally think he's a much better player this year - last year Flacco would not have beaten Cinci and Pitsburgh twice. He will get even better with time. And one more thing. When was the last time we let Flacco throw the ball in from 10 yards or less to score? Practically never. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 13 TDs this season on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd and goal. Drew Brees 15. Tom Brady 13. Matt Ryan 9. Drew Brees 13. Cam Newton 5. Joe Flacco? He's thrown 1. When we get down into scoring territory, we run the ball. These other quarterbacks throw a lot of short touchdowns. Look at their running backs, none of them will get even close to double digit rushing TDs, and we have Rice with 9 plus Williams with 2. That's 11 TDs to running backs, where if Joe was these other guys 8-10 of those would be his.

Next, Ed Reed:

So last year he leads the league in INTs and this year he has 3. What's the difference? It's the nature of the position. In 2008 and 2009, Derrell Revis had 11 picks and 47 passes defended. Last year 0 picks and only 10 passes defended. Why, because he sucked last year? No, because like Nnamdi, people stopped throwing to him. They just ignored him. Now this year, people are challenging Revis more and he's making them pay. Remember when we played the Jets last year, Joe kept picking on Cromartie because we wanted to avoid Revis at all costs, and Cromartie finally picked one off. The same with Ed Reed. He was injury-riddled in 2009 and played poorly by his standards, missing quite a few games. Then last year he misses 6 games. Everyone probably thought he was done or at the least lost a few steps. What happened - they threw at him or near him more. He led the league with 8 INTS. This year, people want to avoid him at all costs, and so his numbers are down, but he's helping the team more. I already explained how his presence led to a sack on Alex Smith who had Vernon Davis wide open with nobody covering him. Alex could have had a huge completion, but instead he wasted 2-3 seconds looking for Ed Reed and hesitating. That cost him and he was sacked before even getting the ball off.

Finally, Billy Cundiff:

Why did he hit on 90 percent of his kicks last year and is only making 75 percent this year? Well, the two misses in Cleveland were on a wet turf. But 5 of 8 of his misses were from beyond 50 yards, and 2 were in Cleveland. Well, I thought the reason we brought in Graham last year was because Billy doesn't have a strong leg. That's what everybody told me. And now everyone seems to be forgetting this, especially the coaching staff who keep trying to make him kick long fieldgoals instead of just punting the ball and giving us better field position. His numbers are almost identical to last year, except this year more of his kicks are from long distance, meaning he will miss more.

People are not "doing as good" as last year for a lot of reasons, some because they aren't being put into the right position, some because people fear them, but there is a reason for everything. Our players are fine - the gameplan isn't, or hasn't been up until the last 3 games, but people need to stop calling for everyone's head and actually try to understand what they're seeing on the field. Then we can decide what changes need to be made next season.

[Irish Raven]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1323201409' post='897591']

Next, Ed Reed:

So last year he leads the league in INTs and this year he has 2.
He led the league with 9 INTS.
[/quote]

Eight and three

[ravensfan160]

I agree completely. Nice post!

[Ravenslifer]

[quote name='Irish Raven' timestamp='1323201909' post='897599']

Eight and three
[/quote]

thanks.

[J-man]

Yea, I've also noticed Reed's INT count is strangely down this year. He has also had a lot of dropped INT's as well if you think about it.

[The Raven]

Good post.

On Flacco, in my opinion, quarterback stats are somewhat over-rated. Obviously, they are great to have when analyzing a QB, they are great indicators of how good they are. But really, the win percentage is what means most as a QB. Flacco may not have the best completetion percentage, or TD-INT ratio, but he is winning. And he has a HUGE role in that. And of course, the inexperience hurts as well.

I agree that teams are just throwing away from Reed. There are times when he gets beat in man-coverage, and sometimes (rarely) in zone, but he is still hands down the best safety ever. The fact is that teams don't throw at him.

On Cundiff, ehh. He's gonna miss some long field goals, but he's down on his touchbacks too if I'm not mistaken.

[BenDufusberger]

Good stuff. I hope enough of it penetrates and we see the result in fewer " Cut John Doe !! " topic headings.

The only thing I would add is that sometimes a bad day is just a bad day. Using performance statistics to evaluate a player is a lot like using stock price to evaluate a company. Over the long haul it works fine , but random fluctuations can cause short term movements in stock price - or player stats - that can be misleading.

No good football statistician would ever attempt to rank placekickers based on a single season's worth of data , for example. There are simply too few kicks in a single season to overcome the misleading effects of randomness.

Billy's misses in Cleveland could mean he has a terminal case of the yips that will end his career , or ( and much more likely , IMO ) that he just had a bad day that will be soon forgotten. Since nobody can know which is the correct explanation yet , it's premature to call for his head.

[hawkprey]

As I posted somewhere else, the 12 teams we've played have only been giving up an average of 58% completion. The league average is around 61-62. Adjust for the average and Joe has about a 59% completion, which isn't bad considering the caliber of receivers.

[Yoonkeem]

[quote name='BenDufusberger' timestamp='1323207800' post='897752']
Good stuff. I hope enough of it penetrates and we see the result in fewer " Cut John Doe !! " topic headings.
[/quote]
Hahah
love those kind of headings.

[Ravenslifer]

[quote name='BenDufusberger' timestamp='1323207800' post='897752']
Good stuff. I hope enough of it penetrates and we see the result in [b]fewer " Cut John Doe !! " topic headings.[/b]

The only thing I would add is that sometimes a bad day is just a bad day. Using performance statistics to evaluate a player is a lot like using stock price to evaluate a company. Over the long haul it works fine , but random fluctuations can cause short term movements in stock price - or player stats - that can be misleading.

No good football statistician would ever attempt to rank placekickers based on a single season's worth of data , for example. There are simply too few kicks in a single season to overcome the misleading effects of randomness.

Billy's misses in Cleveland could mean he has a terminal case of the yips that will end his career , or ( and much more likely , IMO ) that he just had a bad day that will be soon forgotten. Since nobody can know which is the correct explanation yet , it's premature to call for his head.
[/quote]

There is only one "John Doe" who I want cut at the end of the season. My friends say that constantly thinking about guys you dislike is bad for your health, so I will just refer to him as "He Who Shall Not Be Named But Forever Disliked" from now on.

[BenDufusberger]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1323224537' post='898040']

There is only one "John Doe" who I want cut at the end of the season. My friend say that constantly thinking about guys you dislike is bad for your health, so I will just refer to him as "He Who Shall Not Be Named But Forever Disliked" from now on.
[/quote]

I'm trying to do the same. However , "He Who Shall Not Be Named But Forever Disliked" takes too long to type , so I'm going with "Spam".

[jaege]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1323201409' post='897591']
I would just like to put this out there to make myself feel better, but this entire season I've heard all sorts of things about several of our players, and people questioning their abilities, without bothering to actually [b]understand what is going on in the game by doing RESEARCH[/b]. And then they act like guys who've shown ability their entire careers suddenly suck and need to be replaced. Without maybe first doing some research and trying to see if there is a logical explanation for why guys aren't as successful as they have been in the past. So there are 3 players I'd like to involve in this discussion. First is Joe Flacco, since people love to kill him. Second is Ed Reed, since there was a post on him recently. And third is Billy Cundiff, because I just commented on him.

Let's start with Flacco's numbers:

First of all, he's on pace to finish with the lowest completion percentage of his career, his TD-INT ratio is down, and blah, blah blah. Well, if you look at his game splits (meaning a breakdown of exactly the kind of passes he's been throwing) you'll notice that he's thrown a lot more deep passes this season than he ever has in his career. Deep passes are naturally more difficult to complete than short ones, so of course his completion percentage will go down. His receivers have also dropped a lot of balls, you can look up the stats for yourself. And finally, people seem to think it's so easy to just plug in players and go. People, last year Torrey Smith was playing for the Maryland Terrapins! Of course he's going to drop balls and not be on the same page with Flacco. Lee Evans has played 4 games with Flacco total. Of course they're not on the same page. Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta had more playing time in 1 game this year than they did all of last year. Of course they don't have the same rapport with Flacco that Todd Heap did. You're going from a team last year with 4 veteran wide receivers and a tight end who've all played in the league for 7+ years to a rookie and 2 second year tight ends. There is going to be an adjustment period, and it might not be until next season that we see diviends. Flacco is much better this year than he was last year. Do you remember what he did in Cinci last year - 4 INTs. Last year he was 2-2 against Pitt and Cinci and had never beaten Roethlisberger head to head. This year against Pittsburgh and Cinci he is 3-0, and has 6 TDs to 1 pick in three games. Progress. I personally think he's a much better player this year - last year Flacco would not have beaten Cinci and Pitsburgh twice. He will get even better with time.

Next, Ed Reed:

So last year he leads the league in INTs and this year he has 3. What's the difference? It's the nature of the position. In 2008 and 2009, Derrell Revis had 11 picks and 47 passes defended. Last year 0 picks and only 10 passes defended. Why, because he sucked last year? No, because like Nnamdi, people stopped throwing to him. They just ignored him. Now this year, people are challenging him more and we're making them pay. Remember when we played the Jets last year, Joe kept picking on Cromartie because we wanted to avoid Revis at all costs, and Cromartie finally picked one off. The same with Ed Reed. He was injury-riddled in 2009 and played poorly by his standards, missing quite a few games. Then last year he misses 6 games. Everyone probably thought he was done or at the least lost a few steps. What happened - they threw at him or near him more. He led the league with 8 INTS. This year, people want to avoid him at all costs, and so his numbers are down, but he's helping the team more. I already explained how his presence led to a sack on Alex Smith who had Vernon Davis wide open with nobody covering him. Alex could have had a huge completion, but instead he wasted 2-3 seconds looking for Ed Reed and hesitating. That cost him and he was sacked before even getting the ball off.

Finally, Billy Cundiff:

Why did he hit on 90 percent of his kicks last year and is only making 75 percent this year? Well, the two misses in Cleveland were on a wet turf. But 5 of 8 of his misses were from beyond 50 yards, and 2 were in Cleveland. Well, I thought the reason we brought in Graham last year was because Billy doesn't have a strong leg. That's what everybody told me. And now everyone seems to be forgetting this, especially the coaching staff who keep trying to make him kick long fieldgoals instead of just punting the ball and giving us better field position. His numbers are almost identical to last year, except this year more of his kicks are from long distance, meaning he will miss more.

People are not "doing as good" as last year for a lot of reasons, some because they aren't being put into the right position, some because people fear them, but there is a reason for everything. Our players are fine - the gameplan isn't, or hasn't been up until the last 3 games, but people need to stop calling for everyone's head and actually try to understand what they're seeing on the field. Then we can decide what changes need to be made next season.
[/quote]


I agree completely. I just wouldnt have said it that well.

[RavenoutWest]

Good post!. I stopped criticizing this team after the 4th game and began "watching" what happens. I see them as a team that will get better, and the critics may not take us seriously but our opponents do..they better. Flacco will get better, heck Aaron Rodgers has been in the league how many years??!!..and I haven't forgotten how Cundiff carried us through many a game last year while the offense was still trying to get it together, so I'm still behind him. I like this team and will continue to support them on the positive side.

[Ravenslifer]

Something else I would like to point out. 12 of Aaron Rodger's TDs are passes between 1-10 yards. 13 of Brady's are between 1-10 yards. Brees has 13 TDs at that distance, and Stafford has 6 TDs in that range. How many does Joe have? 1. 1, that's all. Why, it's simple. Ray Rice and Ricky Williams run the ball in for us from that distance. Between the running backs they have 12 TDs. How many TDs does Ryan grant have - 0. How about Green-Ellis? 8. The Detroit Lions as a team have 8 rushing TDs. These are all high-powered offenses that put up huge points. On our offense, which has looked absolutely terrible at times this season, 12 TDs accounts for exactly half of our offensive production. We run the ball near the goal line, others throw. If we threw down there as much as they did, Flacco would have over 20 TDs by now. We ask him to lead us down the field, not to score. If we gave Flacco the same opportunities as these other qbs have, his numbers would look much better, but we don't. I don't care. What I do see is that he plays a big role in moving the ball down the field and putting us in position to score. That is what matters.

[rayricedabeast]

Good post man. Also I believe Flacco's numbers have suffered because in the earlier parts of the season the offense was suffering from an identity crisis. I mean we go & grab the best blocking fullback in the league & got away from the run so the lack of balance also helped to stagger Joe Cool's numbers. I believe we have gotten back to the basics & as a result of this Joe & the rest of the offense will soar...

[BenDufusberger]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1323298875' post='898843']
Something else I would like to point out. 12 of Aaron Rodger's TDs are passes between 1-10 yards. 13 of Brady's are between 1-10 yards. Brees has 13 TDs at that distance, and Stafford has 6 TDs in that range. How many does Joe have? 1. 1, that's all. Why, it's simple. Ray Rice and Ricky Williams run the ball in for us from that distance. Between the running backs they have 12 TDs. How many TDs does Ryan grant have - 0. How about Green-Ellis? 8. The Detroit Lions as a team have 8 rushing TDs. These are all high-powered offenses that put up huge points. On our offense, which has looked absolutely terrible at times this season, 12 TDs accounts for exactly half of our offensive production. We run the ball near the goal line, others throw. If we threw down there as much as they did, Flacco would have over 20 TDs by now. We ask him to lead us down the field, not to score. If we gave Flacco the same opportunities as these other qbs have, his numbers would look much better, but we don't. I don't care. What I do see is that he plays a big role in moving the ball down the field and putting us in position to score. That is what matters.
[/quote]

Although Flacco hasn't had the number of attempts inside the 10 as , say , Brees and Rodgers , he's had more than a lot of QBs and his completion percentage is terrible. Stats LLC has him at 2 TDS on 16 attempts inside the 10 , or a 12.5% success rate. Only two QBs in the NFL have a worse % :

[url="http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=050&year"]http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=050&year[/url]=

His overall completion % inside the 10 has him tied for 10th in the AFC , which puts him out of the top 20 in the NFL :

[url="http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=100&year"]http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=100&year[/url]=

Inside the 20 , his completion % is only 34.1% , worst in the AFC and only Bradford is below him in the entire league :

[url="http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=099&year"]http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=099&year[/url]=

BTW , I don't think this necessarily means Joe suddenly becomes a lousy QB when he gets in the red zone. I think it's more likely that the Ravens have become too predictable when they get close to the goal line. With a short field to defend , the defense has the advantage anyway. If the defense also has a good handle on your playcalling tendencies , you're in double trouble.

That's why I say , " Can Spam ! ".

( I'm trying to avoid direct personal attacks when I'm being highly critical , so I've disguised the name of the guilty party )

[Ravenslifer]

[quote name='BenDufusberger' timestamp='1323302584' post='898903']

Although Flacco hasn't had the number of attempts inside the 10 as , say , Brees and Rodgers , he's had more than a lot of QBs and his completion percentage is terrible. Stats LLC has him at 2 TDS on 16 attempts inside the 10 , or a 12.5% success rate. Only two QBs in the NFL have a worse % :

[url="http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=050&year"]http://hosted.stats....g&rank=050[/url]=

His overall completion % inside the 10 has him tied for 10th in the AFC , which puts him out of the top 20 in the NFL :

[url="http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=100&year"]http://hosted.stats....g&rank=100[/url]=

Inside the 20 , his completion % is only 34.1% , worst in the AFC and only Bradford is below him in the entire league :

[url="http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Passing&rank=099&year"]http://hosted.stats....g&rank=099[/url]=

BTW , I don't think this necessarily means Joe suddenly becomes a lousy QB when he gets in the red zone. I think it's more likely that the Ravens have become too predictable when they get close to the goal line. With a short field to defend , the defense has the advantage anyway. If the defense also has a good handle on your playcalling tendencies , you're in double trouble.

That's why I say , " Can Spam ! ".

( I'm trying to avoid direct personal attacks when I'm being highly critical , so I've disguised the name of the guilty party )
[/quote]

Didn't realize he was so poor in the red zone. But like I said, he doesn't have many attempts inside the red zone as a whole, compared to other guys. On Yahoo, they have an option for stats over a three year period. On goal line situations over 3 years, Flacco has about 40 attempts for 7 TDs and 1 pick.

[url="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8795/situational;_ylt=Ar.yvFCvqMN28tqYiTIvqMT.uLYF?year=avg"]http://sports.yahoo....T.uLYF?year=avg[/url]

Other guys over the past 3 years:

Brees: 99 attempts, 38 TDs, 1 pick

Stafford: 29 attempts, 10 TDs, 0 picks

Ryan: 72 attempts, 23 TDs, 0 picks

Rodgers: 97 attempts, 36 TDs, 0 picks

I agree with the predictability, and I don't know if it's because the Ravens think they have such a good run game that they can pound it in all the time and not run the risk of a red-zone INT, or what. (Actually that kind of makes sense - if they only try to throw in the redzone in desperation, then obviously the offense isn't as prepared for it because they haven't done it enough - whatever the case, I'd like to see Joe's attempts in the redzone go up, but our redzone offense as a whole has been atrocious this year). Only like to point this out because people use stats to try and say Flacco is not anywhere close to the level of any of these guys, and I like to point out that what other teams ask their quarterback to to is fundamentally different than what the Ravens ask Joe to do. He does what they ask him to do quite well. Now that I look back on it, the fact that the Ravens did a similar thing last year and Joe still put up 25 TDs is amazing. If they'd given him red-zone opportunities, he would have easily had over 30, maybe closer to 35, TDs last year and would have made the pro bowl without question. But still, Warren Sapp, Skip Bayless and Jemele Hill would call him a mediocre qb.

What I would be interested in is a metric showing how responsible a quarterback/passing game is versus the run game for scoring. I would have it work like this. If you had to go on an 80 yard drive, and you get a 60 yard pass play followed by a 20 yard run play to score, Then of the 80 yards you needed, 60 yards, or 75 percent, were through the air and therefore the actions of the qb and receivers. They would get 75 percent of the credit, while the running back would get 25 percent. As it stands now, it somewhat irks me that Joe threw THREE DROPPED/IMPEDED TDs in the Cardinals game, and his pick bounced backwards off of Smith into the defenders hands. He should have had 3 TDs and 0 picks, ended with 0 TDs and 1 pick. If anything, a "total QBR" that measures quarterback play needs to consider this kind of stuff. I just think it's unfair that if Joe throws three passes that are caught at the five yard line and we run them in, the runningbacks get "bonus points" for the touchdown while Joe's work is largely ignored, while other quarterbacks are praised for hitting the 30 TD marks when a lot of the actual TD PASSES are from less than 10 yards away.