Flacco's Midrange Passing Numbers

[Ravenslifer]

So Flacco has thrown a lot more deep balls than last year, and a lot more than last year in general. It's to be expected that he would be completing less passes since deep balls are harder to complete. But looking at his low completion percentage as a whole, what I found is that the area he seems to have regressed the most from last year is mid-range passing (between 11-20 yards). In 2008 he completed 53 percent of mid-range passes, 2009 55 percent, 2010 60 percent. But this year he's only completing 47 percent of passes between 11-20 yards. I naturally assumed part of the reason his completion percentage is so low is that he's attempting a lot more deep passes, which he is, but his completion rate on those has remained relatively the same. Why has his mid-range passing gone down? Is it the lack of offseason, the new receivers, what? And more importantly, how does he go about correcting it during the rest of the season?

[True]

New receivers play a part in it. Torrey Smith and Ed Dickson have had quite a few drops, Anquan Boldin a couple, and I've counted like 6 times when Ray Rice has done it (he only had 1 drop last year IIRC). Working with young personnel you're bound to have some ups and downs.

Now he hasn't been perfect and sometimes he throws the ball too high or away from the player (I guess he's trying to throw the ball and hit them in stride) but I'd say it's a factor of new guys on offense + inconsistency by Joe Flacco this year.

[tsizzle95]

a lot of drops definatly doesnt help. Neither does the three games where no one played well. Joe didnt get protection those games and his recievers couldnt get open.. He will be fine the rest of the season if we play at a high level, which we should.

[Crabcakes&Football]

[quote name='Ravenslifer' timestamp='1322952096' post='893257']
So Flacco has thrown a lot more deep balls than last year, and a lot more than last year in general. It's to be expected that he would be completing less passes since deep balls are harder to complete. But looking at his low completion percentage as a whole, what I found is that the area he seems to have regressed the most from last year is mid-range passing (between 11-20 yards). In 2008 he completed 53 percent of mid-range passes, 2009 55 percent, 2010 60 percent. But this year he's only completing 47 percent of passes between 11-20 yards. I naturally assumed part of the reason his completion percentage is so low is that he's attempting a lot more deep passes, which he is, but his completion rate on those has remained relatively the same. Why has his mid-range passing gone down? Is it the lack of offseason, the new receivers, what? And more importantly, how does he go about correcting it during the rest of the season?
[/quote]

Less Mason and less Heap I would guess.

[usmccharles]

lack of seperation from wrs doesnt help

[PWNEDbyDEANO]

I would say it's a combination of drops, bad timing between Joe and the receivers and a fair share of bad throws as well. All issues which will get better over time and I think we've started to see that more now.

[BenDufusberger]

Joe has thrown for over 250 yds. in 4 of the last 5 games. He completed over 60% of his passes in 3 of the last 5 , and barely missed in one game , at 59.6%.

Compare this to the first five games , where he threw over 250 yds only twice , and was over 60% only once.

This aligns well with the argument that at least part of Joe's problem has been that the offense is new , and takes some time to develop fully.

[H8R]

Boldin and Torrey have dropped probably 10-12 balls combined this year

[Moderator 3]

[quote name='H8R' timestamp='1322959564' post='893342']Boldin and Torrey have dropped probably 10-12 balls combined this year[/quote]

I think it might be quite a bit higher. Torrey must have that many alone.

[H8R]

[quote name='Moderator 3' timestamp='1322960488' post='893353']


I think it might be quite a bit higher. Torrey must have that many alone.
[/quote]

Boldin has 5 , I figured Torrey had 6 or 7. Though, I agree it could be more, you're right

[The King]

Like everyone is saying, Q and Torrey dropping so many in the mid range area has not helped him one bit. Mason and Heap were beasts in the 10-20 range, and they would account for a large number of his targets in the past couple of seasons. Considering that both had sticky hands and good route-running ability completions in that range were easy to come by. Torrey, Dickson, and Q don't do quite so well in that range, so his completion percentage is down.

Also, there have been a couple of games where the receivers just couldn't get any separation, and when the line hasn't protected well. When Joe is forced to throw away the ball it skews his stats to the bad side.

[CapoRocky]

I think that we need to throw a few more out patterns and run the end around more often, Cam.

[PurpleCorsair]

Mason's staple was the 15 yard comeback. He's gone now.

[BenDufusberger]

There's a way the Ravens can reduce the problem with dropped passes , but it would require the addition of specialized equipment at the training facility. Luckily , it looks like they can get one in Ravens purple :

[url="http://foursimplewords.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/portapotty.jpg"]http://foursimplewords.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/portapotty.jpg[/url]

This explains the training process :

[url="http://www.nfl.com/trainingcamp/story/09000d5d819b27a2/printable/chiefs-turn-to-a-portapotty-to-help-curb-dropped-passes"]http://www.nfl.com/trainingcamp/story/09000d5d819b27a2/printable/chiefs-turn-to-a-portapotty-to-help-curb-dropped-passes[/url]

[Trilogique]

[quote name='BenDufusberger' timestamp='1322957059' post='893318']
Joe has thrown for over 250 yds. in 4 of the last 5 games. He completed over 60% of his passes in 3 of the last 5 , and barely missed in one game , at 59.6%.

Compare this to the first five games , where he threw over 250 yds only twice , and was over 60% only once.

This aligns well with the argument that at least part of Joe's problem has been that the offense is new , and takes some time to develop fully.
[/quote]
I think the sample size is too small to make that assessment. A few more games and we'll know.

If he is in his stride, though, I hope he keeps it when we're in (hopefully) in the playoffs.

[BenDufusberger]

[quote name='Trilogique' timestamp='1323012453' post='893613']
I think the sample size is too small to make that assessment. A few more games and we'll know.

If he is in his stride, though, I hope he keeps it when we're in (hopefully) in the playoffs.
[/quote]

I agree that 5 games is too small a sample to provide any definitive answers , but at least the recent trend is more in line with Joe's performance over the last 3 years , a sample size quite a bit larger. I think the most reasonable expectation is that he will revert to something closer to those longer-term metrics , rather than that he has somehow regressed as a QB and that his first 3 years were a fluke. Frankly , I think most of us were hoping he'd show continued improvement this year and the fact that his numbers are down has us grasping for an explanation.

I forget where I saw it , but someone did a measure of historical QB performance over the first 7 games of seasons compared to their performance over the last 7 games of the same season. Most current QBs either showed a turn for the worse or were about the same over the last 7 games , while Flacco was one of the few who showed improvement in the later games. As you said , if we see that trend again this year and it carries into the playoffs , it would be " a good thing ".

[CapoRocky]

I see the breakdown of receptions as follows: short-range passes go to Rice, Williams, or Leach; mid-range passes go to Dickson, Pitta, Bolden, and sometimes Evans or Smith; long-range passes go to Evans, Bolden, and Smith. I'm not saying that exceptions happen. Heap used to run a great deep post pattern when he was in his prime. Dickson completed a similar route several times. These are the trends that Flacco has completed. Most of the drops have happened when the receiver is forced to extend a route or is covered/held.

[H8R]

Well, look how many passes we dropped today. YIKES

[scrock]

All of Joe's number are being skewed because of the drops, and the offense never being in sync

Joe takes the blame but he was on point today, his accuracy was on point but guys didnt make plays for him

[Yoonkeem]

Drops and miss throws are all part...
but i say the fault is more on the recievers,
but they're in their first season in the system, so i'm not very worried.
But come post-season, they better get some of Tandon's sticky hands.

[Free Agent]

Last year, our top three recievers were Boldin, Mason, and Housh, plus Heap. Pretty much all of these guys specialized in short to intermediate passes. Now, we have Boldin as our short/intermediate route guy, Torrey who runs deep all the time, and doesnt catch a whole lot of short passes, and Dickson and Pitta who run a great variety of routes. It is a lot different than last year.