MERGED: Tiebreaker With New England - #1 Seed

[PWNEDbyDEANO]

[quote name='Fricknmaniac' timestamp='1323645932' post='903619']
The current seeding in the AFC is the Texans #1 because of the best conference record (they've played one more conference game than the Patriots and Ravens have.) And the Ravens win over the Patriots with a better common games record: 4-0 vs. 3-1.

Of course this doesn't change the fact that the Ravens will clinch home-field advantage if they win out, even if there is a three-way tie between the Ravens, Patriots, and Texans. (As I mathematically proved in an earlier post.)
[/quote]

I would like to thank you for some incredible number crunching to work out the outcomes.

It's a shame that today could have been such a good day with other results, but wasn't. If only the Bengals and the Redskins could have won. It would have been nice to have back that breathing room that we threw away.

[Fricknmaniac]

Actually the Patriots losing to the Redskins wouldn't have bought the Ravens any breathing room against them. Because the Redskins are an NFC team and the Ravens only have AFC teams left a loss by the Patriots to the Redskins would leave their conference record at two losses and any loss by the Ravens would put their conference record at three losses. And that would result in the Ravens losing the tie-breaker to the Patriots.

Likewise the Texans losing to the Panthers next week would fall under the same scenario.

So the Ravens can get afford a loss in the remaining games as long as the Patriots and Texans both lose to an AFC team and if the Steelers lose any game.

[hawkprey]

[quote name='Fricknmaniac' timestamp='1323647028' post='903649']
[b]Actually the Patriots losing to the Redskins wouldn't have bought the Ravens any breathing room against them.[/b] Because the Redskins are an NFC team and the Ravens only have AFC teams left a loss by the Patriots to the Redskins would leave their conference record at two losses and any loss by the Ravens would put their conference record at three losses. And that would result in the Ravens losing the tie-breaker to the Patriots.

Likewise the Texans losing to the Panthers next week would fall under the same scenario.

So the Ravens can get afford a loss in the remaining games as long as the Patriots and Texans both lose to an AFC team and if the Steelers lose any game.
[/quote]
But they would have 4 losses...

[TreTheRaven]

How is Houston the number 1 seed currently?

[Ravenseconbeast]

Houstons are champ for this week. Their QB is serviceable and their defense is stout ( much like ravens). We lose one game, and we are headed to seed#3 without a bye. We will of course fight out at someone elses turf after wildcard and be on road trip all the way till the end. If we win out all 3, we will be #1 seed with a bye at our place till superbowl. Such a HUGE difference! Lets make the magic happen!

[cursona pirate]

The last 3 weeks have not helped with breathing room at all. The Steelers and Texans are barely winning. We have to hope for a 49ers win next week against the steelers. Thats the only team I think can beat them at this point. I dont know the rest of the Texans schedule so i cant really comment on that.

[Fricknmaniac]

The Texans are the #1 seed right now because they have a conference record 8-2 while the Patriots and Ravens have a conference record of 7-2. Basically it's just a matter of semantics. Things will clear up after this next week because all three teams will have played the same number of conference games.

That's why a Patriots loss to the Redskins or a Texans loss to the Panthers wouldn't give the Ravens any breathing room as far as getting the number one seed. Yes they would be a game up on the Patriots and Texans, but their situation wouldn't change at all, they'd still have to win out to clinch home-field advantage. If they lost, then the Patriots and Texans would both have a better conference record. (That's in the case of a three way tie or a two way tie with the Patriots, in the case of a two-way tie with the Texans the Ravens would still win based on the head-to-head matchup.)

However if the Patriots and Texans each lost to an AFC team then that would give the Ravens the luxury of being able to lose one more game.

So it is possible that the Ravens can clinch home-field advantage going into the Cincinnati game. Right now there are two scenarios.

That would require the Ravens winning against both the Chargers and Browns.

The Patriots would have to lose to either the Broncos or Dolphins.

The Texans would have to lose to the Colts in week 16.

The Steelers lose against the 49ers or Rams. (After all, the Ravens can't clinch home-field if they don't win the division.)

Alternatively if the Patriots lose to [b]both[/b] the Broncos and Dolphins

The Texans lose to either the Colts or the Panthers

The Steelers lose against the 49ers or Rams.

In that either one of those scenarios the Ravens would clinch home-field advantage going into week 17.

[UMDan]

We are "back" in control of the AFC North, as we are again tied with Pittsburgh at 10-3. As we all know we have the tiebreaker.

New England and Houston hold on to win and continue to be 10-3 as well, and the three way tie holds.

One of the biggest pluses of the day is Cincinnati losing, putting them three games behind us. It seems less and less likely that they'll have anything to play for on New Years day. It all depends on what the Jets (8-5) Titans (7-6) and Raiders (7-6) do. Tennessee would have to be one game ahead of Cincinnati to surpass them since they hold the tiebreaker.

The Chargers win but so do the Broncos, so I don't think they have anything to play for next week.

[UMDan]

[quote name='cursona pirate' timestamp='1323648693' post='903669']
The last 3 weeks have not helped with breathing room at all. The Steelers and Texans are barely winning. We have to hope for a 49ers win next week against the steelers. Thats the only team I think can beat them at this point. I dont know the rest of the Texans schedule so i cant really comment on that.
[/quote]

Panthers, @Colts, Titans.

[macbrak]

"back"... win and win convincingly and the Ravens are in control of there destiny.

Fu-stivus marches on!!!

[img]http://homepage.mac.com/jeffade/img/fu.jpg[/img]

[cursona pirate]

[quote name='UMDan' timestamp='1323650872' post='903734']

Panthers, @Colts, Titans.
[/quote]
Panthers might have a chance if they dont choke in 2nd half leads...
Titans might do it... idk thats easier than our i think..

[CharlesK]

Thank you very much Fricknmaniac for all of your Stat work. We all appreciate it here. It basically says if the Ravens continue to take care of business they will get their bye and home field. Very doable. I am a runner and I do a lot of 5k fun runs and I will say this though. As a runner it is hard to not look over your shoulder and see who is behind and how far; especially when you are ahead.

[ROH522155]

Anybody know of any clinching scenarios for us next week?

[RavensAllTheWay]

Win and were in.

[1/28/01]

[quote name='ROH522155' timestamp='1323653700' post='903815']
Anybody know of any clinching scenarios for us next week?
[/quote]
I dont think so..... http://www.playoffrace.com/NFL/Ravens.aspx

[1/28/01]

[quote name='RavensAllTheWay' timestamp='1323653858' post='903822']
Win and were in.
[/quote]
Not next week.....I mean, yes please WIN! But we cannot clinch next week, from my calculations and research.

[ROH522155]

Well darn. It's always nice to get that out of the way before the last 1 or 2 weeks

[Militant X 1]

[quote name='1/28/01' timestamp='1323654040' post='903828']
I dont think so..... [url="http://www.playoffrace.com/NFL/Ravens.aspx"]http://www.playoffra...NFL/Ravens.aspx[/url]
[/quote]

i am diggin this but help me understand it clearly. how does the cowboys vs giants game (NFC) affect the Ravens?

~Mili

[1/28/01]

[quote name='Militant X 1' timestamp='1323654717' post='903849']

i am diggin this but help me understand it clearly.  how does the cowboys vs giants game (NFC) affect the Ravens?

~Mili
[/quote]
Strength of victory for opposing AFC teams is my guess.

[Militant X 1]

[quote name='1/28/01' timestamp='1323654845' post='903854']
Strength of victory for opposing AFC teams is my guess.
[/quote]

oh i see!
as my boy Deion Sanders says to Mooch..."I love it when you coach'em up!" [img]http://content.boards.baltimoreravens.com//public/style_emoticons/default/229031_rofl.gif[/img]

~Mili

[1/28/01]

[quote name='ROH522155' timestamp='1323654656' post='903847']
Well darn. It's always nice to get that out of the way before the last 1 or 2 weeks
[/quote]
Well, its weird...the text above in that link says no clinching scenarios for the Ravens, but simple math tells me that 99.80 (current playoff chances) + .20 (figure awarded to us for a win next week) = 100%.  So, I would say the site is not updated, but the predetermined calculations are, meaning the percentages are automated, but the text is manually edited.

[1/28/01]

[quote name='Militant X 1' timestamp='1323655083' post='903859']

oh i see!
as my boy Deion Sanders says to Mooch..."I love it when you coach'em up!"  [img]http://content.boards.baltimoreravens.com//public/style_emoticons/default/229031_rofl.gif[/img]

~Mili
[/quote]
Anytime, sir..anytime!!

[ROH522155]

[quote name='1/28/01' timestamp='1323655142' post='903861']
Well, its weird...the text above in that link says no clinching scenarios for the Ravens, but simple math tells me that 99.80 (current playoff chances) + .20 (figure awarded to us for a win next week) = 100%. So, I would say the site is not updated, but the predetermined calculations are, meaning the percentages are automated, but the text is manually edited.
[/quote]

Oh okay. Pitt had a chance to clinch today so I gotta think that we'll have a chance next week.

[RavensAllTheWay]

[quote name='1/28/01' timestamp='1323654111' post='903833']
Not next week.....I mean, yes please WIN! But we cannot clinch next week, from my calculations and research.
[/quote]
We'll be 11-3. If the Jets win, they're 9-5 and two games behind us plus the tiebreaker, so they couldn't catch us. Everyone else at 7-6 would also not be able to catch us because 8-6 with two games left can't catch 11-3. So we clinch with a win.

[1/28/01]

[quote name='RavensAllTheWay' timestamp='1323656101' post='903890']
We'll be 11-3.  If the Jets win, they're 9-5 and two games behind us plus the tiebreaker, so they couldn't catch us.  Everyone else at 7-6 would also not be able to catch us because 8-6 with two games left can't catch 11-3.  So we clinch with a win.
[/quote]
[quote name='1/28/01' timestamp='1323655142' post='903861']
Well, its weird...the text above in that link says no clinching scenarios for the Ravens, but simple math tells me that 99.80 (current playoff chances) + .20 (figure awarded to us for a win next week) = 100%. So, I would say the site is not updated, but the predetermined calculations are, meaning the percentages are automated, but the text is manually edited.
[/quote]

[JO_75]

There were no clinching scenarios for the Ravens, the only reason Pittsburgh could clinch was because of their conference record, but thanks to Tebow Magic, the Steelers COULD NOT clinch a playoff spot this week. So I'm thinking once Week 14 is over, there should be some clinching scenarios for the Ravens next week, but it would only be a playoff spot and if the 49ers win against the Steelers, we could most likely clinch the AFC North in Week 16 by beating Cleveland.

[Fricknmaniac]

Hmm, doing some a quick look over the schedule at possible clinching scenarios.

The previous poster is correct, if the Ravens win next week, then they'll clinch at worst the #5 seed in the AFC.

If the Ravens lose, then they'll still be able to clinch a playoff spot if the Titans or Jets lose.

Interestingly enough the Bengals can no longer win the division. Even if the Steelers and Ravens lose out and the Bengals win out they would still finish third in the division. (The Ravens would win the division in that scenario based on the division record.) So the Bengals have no impact on any Ravens clinching scenarios anymore.

Another boring calculation. For the Ravens to NOT make the playoffs they would have to

Lose all three games.

The Steelers must win at least one game.

The Titans must win all three games.

The Jets must win all three games.

The Raiders must lose at least one game.

That's why the calculated percentage of the Ravens making the playoffs is 99.8%... because that's the only possible scenario where the Ravens do not make the playoffs.

[Greatness]

[quote name='JO_75' timestamp='1323657265' post='903910']
There were no clinching scenarios for the Ravens, the only reason Pittsburgh could clinch was because of their conference record, but thanks to Tebow Magic, the Steelers COULD NOT clinch a playoff spot this week. So I'm thinking once Week 14 is over, there should be some clinching scenarios for the Ravens next week, but it would only be a playoff spot and if the 49ers win against the Steelers, we could most likely clinch the AFC North in Week 16 by beating Cleveland.
[/quote]

It's bigger than the North now. Let's clinch the #1 seed and make the fodder come to [b]The Bank[/b]!

The Bank - "Where teams come to die"

[macbrak]

Playoffs is a almost given unless they lose out. They are fighting for home games.

[Fricknmaniac]

Even if they lose out, it would be extremely difficult for the Ravens to miss the playoffs.

The Ravens would clinch a playoff spot if the Raiders won all three of their games. That's right, if the Raiders win out, that clinches the Ravens a playoff spot. That's how difficult it is for the Ravens to miss the playoffs at this point.