MERGED: Tiebreaker With New England - #1 Seed

[ravensdfan]

[quote name='PeRK82' timestamp='1323048765' post='895652']
We should have a pretty easy cake walk if the Bengals play like they did today against the Stealers.

I guess our Only hope that the Stealers lose one is against the 9ers, I think the 49ers have a good chance , after we played them, its like they never lost a beat. They whopped the team they played today.

Oh on a side note - like usual , [b]The Stealers got more help from the Zebras yet again. [/b]Its getting real old. Also i love how the Stealers fans say the Refs helped us when we beat them, that couldnt be further from the truth.
[/quote]

Yeah I think that was the most blatantly biased officiated game I've ever seen in my life. 80 yds against the Bengals @ the half and supposedly Pitt played a perfect half of football. Plus they didn't call that obvious block in the back on that ST TD @ the end of the half. Pretty much demoralized the Bengals and then decided they could throw a flag or two on Pitt. Disgusting.

[Wallace17_OutRunMe]

[quote name='ravensdfan' timestamp='1323055508' post='895925']

Yeah I think that was the most blatantly biased officiated game I've ever seen in my life. 80 yds against the Bengals @ the half and supposedly Pitt played a perfect half of football. Plus they didn't call that obvious block in the back on that ST TD @ the end of the half. Pretty much demoralized the Bengals and then decided they could throw a flag or two on Pitt. Disgusting.
[/quote]
I agree there should have been a block in the back call on the Brown punt return TD before the half, but are you still going to sit here and tell me that the Steelers only won this game against the Bengals only because of the officiating. Even if they do call the block in the back there it's still 21-7 at the half and the way Cincy played offensively in the 2nd half they had absolutely no chance to win. Some of the Bengals penalties were of their own fault as well and not just the refs making a call. The delay of game before the Nugent blocked FG which was a big play in my opinion early in the game had nothing to do with the refs being biased just the Bengals being dumb...

[Wallace17_OutRunMe]

[quote name='PeRK82' timestamp='1323048765' post='895652']
We should have a pretty easy cake walk if the Bengals play like they did today against the Stealers.

I guess our Only hope that the Stealers lose one is against the 9ers, I think the 49ers have a good chance , after we played them, its like they never lost a beat. They whopped the team they played today.

Oh on a side note - like usual , The Stealers got more help from the Zebras yet again. Its getting real old. Also i love how the Stealers fans say the Refs helped us when we beat them, that couldnt be further from the truth.
[/quote]
The Bengals still wouldnt have won the game dude even if they would have reversed a bunch of those calls so how about letting it go. I can recall the game the Bengals played with the Ravens a few weeks ago which was a much much closer game then the game yesterday with the Steelers and Bengals where the Ravens got a call on the Gresham TD that wasnt called a TD because of the ridiculous Calvin Johnson rule that clearly could have went either way and given Cincy a better chance to win that game. The bottom line is the Bengals lost to the Steelers because they got outplayed and got their butts kicked up and down the field from the 2nd quarter on not because of 2 calls the refs made...

[arnie_uk]

[quote name='Wallace17_OutRunMe' timestamp='1323091244' post='896233']
The Bengals still wouldnt have won the game dude even if they would have reversed a bunch of those calls so how about letting it go. I can recall the game the Bengals played with the Ravens a few weeks ago which was a much much closer game then the game yesterday with the Steelers and Bengals where the Ravens got a call on the Gresham TD that wasnt called a TD because of the ridiculous Calvin Johnson rule that clearly could have went either way and given Cincy a better chance to win that game. The bottom line is the Bengals lost to the Steelers because they got outplayed and got their butts kicked up and down the field from the 2nd quarter on not because of 2 calls the refs made...
[/quote]
no one said they won because of the refs, the said the refs helped, two different things, if it was a seven point game or less, then you won because of the refs, but with the margin of victory you had, the refs helped but didnt cause cincy to lose

[Wallace17_OutRunMe]

[quote name='arnie_uk' timestamp='1323091646' post='896238']
no one said they won because of the refs, the said the refs helped, two different things, if it was a seven point game or less, then you won because of the refs, but with the margin of victory you had, the refs helped but didnt cause cincy to lose
[/quote]
Exactly so tell those who are posting above in this thread to quit whining and complaining about the officiating during the game because it had absolutely nothing to do with the outcome...

[ravensdfan]

[quote name='Wallace17_OutRunMe' timestamp='1323090925' post='896230']
I agree there should have been a block in the back call on the Brown punt return TD before the half, [b]but are you still going to sit here and tell me that the Steelers only won this game against the Bengals only because of the officiating.[/b] Even if they do call the block in the back there it's still 21-7 at the half and the way Cincy played offensively in the 2nd half they had absolutely no chance to win. Some of the Bengals penalties were of their own fault as well and not just the refs making a call. The delay of game before the Nugent blocked FG which was a big play in my opinion early in the game had nothing to do with the refs being biased just the Bengals being dumb...
[/quote]

Not exactly. I'm saying we'll never really know how the game might have gone after that. The Bengals clearly pretty much gave up @ half-time. That non-call on that TD was a back breaker, a game changer. It wasn't just the fact that it resulted in a TD it was the timing of that TD. Not to mention there were other non-calls in the first half as well. The calls vs the Bengals (though a few were ticky tack) were not a result of the refs making things up but it was the non-calls vs the Steelers. 80 yards man. 80 yards. vs 5. 5. in garbage time @ the end of the half. Are you going to sit there and tell me you honestly think the Steelers played a perfect half of football?

[Wallace17_OutRunMe]

[quote name='ravensdfan' timestamp='1323095138' post='896282']

Not exactly. I'm saying we'll never really know how the game might have gone after that. The Bengals clearly pretty much gave up @ half-time. That non-call on that TD was a back breaker, a game changer. It wasn't just the fact that it resulted in a TD it was the timing of that TD. Not to mention there were other non-calls in the first half as well. The calls vs the Bengals (though a few were ticky tack) were not a result of the refs making things up but it was the non-calls vs the Steelers. 80 yards man. 80 yards. vs 5. 5. in garbage time @ the end of the half. Are you going to sit there and tell me you honestly think the Steelers played a perfect half of football?
[/quote]No they didnt play a perfect half of football and I agree some of the calls were not very good but I still dont see how the Bengals would have won the game in the 2nd half. The key for the Bengals was after the Kapinos 57 yard punt that backed Cincy up to their own 13 yard line with 2 minutes left in the half they went 3 and out and had to punt the ball to the Steelers deep in their own end. Even if they did call a block in the back on the Brown TD the Steelers still had about 1:40 left on the clock and 2 timeouts and would have had pretty good field position to either get in FG range and make it 24-7 or score a TD and make it 28-7. It's not the Steelers fault the Bengals "gave up" in the 2nd half as you like to say it and couldnt do anything. Maybe that had a little something to do with the Steelers defense figuring out Dalton and not allowing him to do anything. I dont recall the Bengals giving up in Baltimore a few weeks ago in the 4th quarter after Dalton threw a INT and then Smith got a TD that made it 31-14. They came right back and got 10 points and still had a shot to tie it in the end...The truth about the Bengals has come out a lot over the last few weeks. They are a good young up and coming team no doubt but they still do not know how to win consistently against superior teams such as the Steelers and Ravens...

[PeRK82]

[quote name='Wallace17_OutRunMe' timestamp='1323092248' post='896247']
Exactly so tell those who are posting above in this thread to quit whining and complaining about the officiating during the game because it had absolutely nothing to do with the outcome...
[/quote]


So im guessing your referring to me right, look at my original post, duh.

[JohnnyBoy8102]

ESPN and CBSsports have as the #2 seed due to the head to head tiebreaker.

This is confusing.

[JO_75]

[quote name='JohnnyBoy8102' timestamp='1323112687' post='896614']
ESPN and CBSsports have as the #2 seed due to the head to head tiebreaker.

This is confusing.
[/quote]

NFL.com has us the 3rd Seed! NFL.com is right, since the Ravens, Patriots and Texans are still 8-3, the same tiebreaker that applied last week is still in place which is conference record. Now both the Patriots and Texans are 7-2 but the Patriots are the higher seed due to have a better Strength of Victory, resulting in Patriots the 1 seed, and the Texans the 2 seed. Until the Patriots or Texans lose, or we lose, conference will be the tiebreaker that is important.

Patriots Remaining AFC Opponents

Week 15- Denver Broncos
Week 16- Miami Dolphins
Week 17- Buffalo Bills

Texans Remaining AFC Opponents
Week 14- Cincinnati Bengals
Week 16- Indianapolis Colts
Week 17- Tennessee Titans

The Best the Texans and Patriots can do is 10-2 as they each have 3 conference games left.

Ravens Remaining AFC Opponents
Week 14- Indianapolis Colts
Week 15- San Diego Chargers
Week 16- Cleveland Browns
Week 17- Cincinnati Bengals

Ravens meanwhile have 4 conference opponents left and currently have a 6-2 Conference record. The Ravens can only tie the Patriots and Texans Conference Record at 10-2 if they win out the rest of the way. Either way this should be a good three way battle down the stretch!

[JohnnyBoy8102]

[quote name='JO_75' timestamp='1323117413' post='896712']

NFL.com has us the 3rd Seed! NFL.com is right, since the Ravens, Patriots and Texans are still 8-3, the same tiebreaker that applied last week is still in place which is conference record. Now both the Patriots and Texans are 7-2 but the Patriots are the higher seed due to have a better Strength of Victory, resulting in Patriots the 1 seed, and the Texans the 2 seed. Until the Patriots or Texans lose, or we lose, conference will be the tiebreaker that is important.

Patriots Remaining AFC Opponents

Week 15- Denver Broncos
Week 16- Miami Dolphins
Week 17- Buffalo Bills

Texans Remaining AFC Opponents
Week 14- Cincinnati Bengals
Week 16- Indianapolis Colts
Week 17- Tennessee Titans

The Best the Texans and Patriots can do is 10-2 as they each have 3 conference games left.

Ravens Remaining AFC Opponents
Week 14- Indianapolis Colts
Week 15- San Diego Chargers
Week 16- Cleveland Browns
Week 17- Cincinnati Bengals

Ravens meanwhile have 4 conference opponents left and currently have a 6-2 Conference record. The Ravens can only tie the Patriots and Texans Conference Record at 10-2 if they win out the rest of the way. Either way this should be a good three way battle down the stretch!
[/quote]

Thanks for the clarification. It just seems to me that head to head would be higher in the pecking order to determine the seeding!

If we tie Houston with the conference record, that head to head win would loom rather large.

[scrock]

right now the Patriots are the #1 seed having a better conference record i do believe..or is it strength of victory ?

[Rinbee]

[quote name='SideStep77' timestamp='1322329293' post='887201']
I don't think the Steelers will lose again unless it is to the 49ers but after seeing how we handled them I think the Steelers will have no issue with them. As long as we win the rest of our games we will be able to beat the Pats because look what the Steelers did. Defense always wins over offense (unless you're the Green Bay Packers but I would be interested to see what would happen if they played us or the Steelers)
[/quote]

I can see SF beathing the Steelers. Pitt has to go out there and SF will have full rest and preparation. they should have some motivation to keep winning to hold onto the #2 seed. The Saints are only one game behind I believe. If the Ravens win out, it does not matter what the Steelers do, but it would be nice to have the cushion in case the Ravens slip up. Cinn away on the final game may not be easy, so let's hope for a little insurance.

[hawkprey]

Everyone root for San Diego on MNF. This will be big for us in terms of the strength of victory tiebreaker.

[PuRock]

[quote name='Rinbee' timestamp='1323121064' post='896776']

I can see SF beathing the Steelers. Pitt has to go out there and[b] SF will have full rest and preparation[/b]. they should have some motivation to keep winning to hold onto the #2 seed. The Saints are only one game behind I believe. If the Ravens win out, it does not matter what the Steelers do, but it would be nice to have the cushion in case the Ravens slip up. Cinn away on the final game may not be easy, so let's hope for a little insurance.
[/quote]

The Steelers will have even more rest. Don't forget that they play on Thursday this week. Meaning that they'll have 10 days to rest before playing San Fran. They'll probably be out there fairly early in the week.

Plus they technically have a two game lead on the Saints since the Saints conference record is worse.

[Fricknmaniac]

First of all, let me apologize for the length of this post, but I wanted to be thorough as possible to exhaust any possible question. For those that don't wish to read the entire post, here is the gist of it:

If the Ravens win all four of their remaining games, then they will get the #1 seed in the AFC, regardless of what scenario comes up.

Let me preface this by saying it's been driving me absolutely crazy over the last week with the number of people saying that the Patriots will get the #1 seed if they win out, or that it is impossible to determine who would win a Strength of Victory tiebreaker until the season is over. After week 13, both of these statements are completely false, because the Ravens have clinched the Strength of Victory tie-breaker over both the Texans and the Patriots if all three teams win out.

These are the possible scenarios:

Ravens are the only 13-3 team, no tie-breakers needed.

Ravens and Steelers are the only 13-3 teams, Ravens win divisional tie-breaker. This is true for every scenario, the divisional tiebreaker is applied first, then when one team per division is left, the conference tiebreakers come into play.

Ravens and Patriots are the only 13-3 teams. There was no head-to-head match-up, both have the same conference record, the Ravens have a better common games record 5-0 vs 4-1.

Ravens and Texans are the only 13-3 teams. Ravens win because of a head-to-head win.

Ravens, Texans, and Patriots all finish at 13-3. No team swept the other two, all three have the same conference record, there aren't enough common games to use that tiebreaker so it comes down to Strength of Victory. Here is where it gets tricky, but I have done the math to prove that the Ravens have already clinched that tiebreaker.

The Strength of Victory is determined by the record of the teams that they defeated (teams that they've beaten twice have their records counted twice.) Here would be the 13 wins by each of the three teams:

Patriots: Dolphins x2, Chargers, Raiders, Jets x2, Cowboys, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Broncos, and Bills.

Texans: Colts x2, Dolphins, Steelers, Titans x2, Jaguars x2, Browns, Buccaneers, Falcons, Bengals, Panthers.

Ravens: Steelers x2, Rams, Jets, Texans, Cardinals, Bengals x2, 49ers, Browns x2, Colts, Chargers.

So for each case we need to compare the best case for each of the Texans and Patriots and the worst case for the Ravens. We tackle each scenario separately because having it anywhere in between favors the Ravens, we want to look at the worst possible case for the Ravens.

First we'll look at the worst case scenario for the Ravens and the best case scenario for the Patriots. We can eliminate the common wins between the two teams that each team only won once. This removes the Colts and Chargers from the equation. (It doesn't remove the Jets because each Jets win counts twice as much for the Patriots than it does for the Ravens.)

So we want the best record possible for the following teams to maximize the SoV for the Patriots:

Dolphins (x2): 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Eagles, Bills, Patriots, Jets
Raiders: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Packers, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers
Jets (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins
Cowboys: 6-6 Remaining Schedule: Giants, Buccaneers, Eagles, Giants
Chiefs: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: Jets, Packers, Raiders, Broncos
Eagles: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys, Redskins
Redskins: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Patriots, Giants, Vikings, Eagles
Broncos: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Bears, Patriots, Bills, Chiefs
Bills: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, Patriots

And we want the worst record possible for the following teams to minimize the SoV for the Ravens:

Steelers (x2): 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Browns, 49ers, Rams, Browns
Rams: 2-10 Remaining Schedule: Seahawks, Bengals, Steelers, 49ers
Jets: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins
Texans: 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans
Cardinals: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: 49ers, Browns, Bengals, Seahawks
Bengals (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Texans, Rams, Cardinals, Ravens
49ers: 10-2 Remaining Schedule: Cardinals, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams
Browns (x2): 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens, Steelers

Using the current records, the SoV for the Ravens and Patriots based if all three teams win out, which is the only way the SoV comes into play, will be: (Remember this example just looks at the SoV for the Ravens and Patriots and doesn't include the common teams that count equal towards both teams.)

Patriots: 60-72
Ravens: 73-59

Best case scenario for the Patriots: (Note that there are a lot of head-to-head matchups where regardless of who wins the game the Patriots' SoV would get a 1-1 record in the game, like Raiders vs. Chiefs. In this case it doesn't matter who wins, so the first team in the list is arbitrarily selected to win.)

Dolphins go 3-1 (x2) (loss to the Patriots)
Raiders go 4-0
Jets go 3-1 (x2)(loss to the Dolphins) (It helps the Patriots more for the Dolphins to beat the Jets because the Ravens also beat the Jets)
Cowboys go 4-0
Chiefs go 2-2 (losses to the Jets and Raiders)
Eagles go 1-3 (losses to the Jets, Dolphins, and Cowboys)
Redskins go 2-2 (losses to the Patriots and Eagles)
Broncos go 2-2 (losses to the Patriots and Chiefs)
Bills go 1-3 (losses to the Dolphins, Broncos, and Patriots.)

It would be impossible for the Patriots SoV to improve more than it does in that scenario. In that best case scenario their SoV would be: 28-16 plus 60-72 which plays out to:

Patriots: 88-88

On the flip side we want to look at the worst case scenario for the Ravens SoV:

Steelers go 2-2 (x2)(losses to the Rams and 49ers)
Rams go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks)
Jets go 3-1 (loss to the Dolphins as per the Patriots best case scenario)
Texans go 4-0 (required for the SoV tiebreaker to come into play)
Cardinals go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks)
Bengals go 0-4 (x2)(losses to the Texans, Rams, Cardinals, and Ravens)
49ers go 1-3 (losses to the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams)
Browns go 0-4 (x2)(losses to the Steelers x2, Cardinals, and Ravens)

And it would be impossible for there to be a three way tie and the Ravens SoV to be worse than in this scenario, so their SoV would be: 18-28 plus 73-59 which plays out to:

Ravens: 91-85
Patriots 88-88

So in the best case scenario for the Patriots and the worst case scenario for the Ravens, the Ravens still end up with a better SoV. So against the Patriots the Ravens have clinched the SoV tiebreaker. This would still be true if you added in the records for the Colts and Chargers because they could equally for both teams and wouldn't change the outcome. If you want to factor in the Chargers and Colts, assume they finish with the best record possible according to the previous outcomes, the Colts would go 2-2 and the Chargers would finish 2-3 which means the best total SoV for the Patriots and the worst possible under the same circumstances for the Ravens would be:

Ravens: 99-109
Patriots: 96-112

As you can see, the Ravens would still have a 2 game advantage in the SoV.

Next we'll analyze the best case scenario for the Texans and the worst case scenario for the Ravens:

Neither team has a common opponent so we'll have to look at all thirteen victories for both teams.

First, the victories for the Texans and their remaining schedule:

Colts (x2): 0-12 Remaining Schedule: Ravens, Titans, Texans, Jaguars
Dolphins: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Eagles, Bills, Patriots, Jets
Steelers: 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Browns, 49ers, Rams, Browns
Titans (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Saints, Colts, Jaguars, Texans
Jaguars (x2): 3-8 Remaining Schedule: Chargers, Buccaneers, Falcons, Titans, Colts
Browns: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens, Steelers
Buccaneers: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Jaguars, Cowboys, Panthers, Falcons
Falcons: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Panthers, Jaguars, Saints, Buccaneers
Bengals: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Texans, Rams, Cardinals, Ravens
Panthers: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Falcons, Texans, Buccaneers, Saints

Steelers (x2): 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Browns, 49ers, Rams, Browns
Rams: 2-10 Remaining Schedule: Seahawks, Bengals, Steelers, 49ers
Jets: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins
Texans: 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans
Cardinals: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: 49ers, Browns, Bengals, Seahawks
Bengals (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Texans, Rams, Cardinals, Ravens
49ers: 10-2 Remaining Schedule: Cardinals, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams
Browns (x2): 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens, Steelers
Colts: 0-12 Remaining Schedule: Ravens, Titans, Texans, Jaguars
Chargers: 4-7 Remaining Schedule: Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, Lions, Raiders

SoV based on current records (assuming all three teams win out:)

Texans: 59-95
Ravens: 77-78

(Note that because the Jaguars and Chargers haven't played yet, the Texans have one fewer overall game)

Best case scenario for the Texans:

Colts go 2-2 (x2)(losses to the Ravens and Texans)
Dolphins go 3-1 (loss to the Patriots)
Steelers go 2-2 (losses to the 49ers and Rams) (The Steelers winning helps the Ravens more than it does the Texans)
Titans go 2-2 (x2)(losses to the Colts and Texans)
Jaguars go 3-2 (x2)(losses to the Titans and Colts)
Browns go 0-4 (losses to the Steelers x2, Cardinals, and Ravens)
Buccaneers go 3-1 (loss to the Jaguars)
Falcons go 2-2 (losses to the Jaguars and Buccaneers)
Bengals go 0-4 (losses to the Texans, Rams, Cardinals, and Ravens)
Panthers go 1-3 (losses to Falcons, Texans, and Buccaneers)

The best case scenario for the remaining games for the Texans would be: 25-29 + 59-95 which is:

Texans: 84-124

And for the Ravens:

Steelers go 2-2 (losses to the 49ers and Rams)
Rams go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks)
Jets go 0-4 (losses to the Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins)
Texans go 4-0
Cardinals go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks)
Bengals go 0-4 (losses to the Texans, Rams, Cardinals, and Ravens)
49ers go 1-3 (losses to the Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams)
Browns go 0-4 (losses to the Steelers x2, Cardinals, and Ravens)
Colts go 2-2 (losses to the Ravens and Texans)
Chargers go 0-5 (losses to the Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, Lions, and Raiders)

The worst case scenario for the Ravens would be 17-38 plus 77-78 resulting in:

Ravens: 94-114
Texans: 84-124

As you can see the Ravens have clinched the SoV tiebreaker over the Texans as well.

Even if every possible game swung in favor of the Patriots and against the Ravens, and likewise in a separate scenario for the Texans and against the Ravens, the Ravens would still have a stronger Strength of Victory than either team.

Thus it can be stated that if the Ravens win their remaining four games, they will clinch the #1 playoff seed in the AFC and with it homefield advantage.

edit: I did make one minor error in having both the 49ers and the Steelers losing their head-to-head matchup, but after fixing it, that only improves the Ravens position.

[scrock]

wow wow wow

thats a long freakin post

[balimore]

Pats defense sucks, I think they will lose 1 game before the playoffs.
If not we still have an advantage over them if we win out the rest of the season.

[K-Dog]

Thanks Fricinaniac,
I have no clue what you said but I am sure if I did it would have been very informative.

I am just going to wait until the end of the regular season and then find out what is what...

[BenDufusberger]

[quote name='Fricknmaniac' timestamp='1323128837' post='896870']

Let me preface this by saying it's been driving me absolutely crazy over the last week with the number of people saying that the Patriots will get the #1 seed if they win out, or that it is impossible to determine who would win a Strength of Victory tiebreaker until the season is over. After week 13, both of these statements are completely false, because the Ravens have clinched the Strength of Victory tie-breaker over both the Texans and the Patriots if all three teams win out.

[/quote]

It's been driving me crazy too. Sarah Ellison contributes further to the misunderstanding with her blog post today. I did a quick and dirty analysis that was sufficient to convince me , here :

[url="http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/43108-merged-tiebreaker-with-new-england-1-seed/page__view__findpost__p__890639"]http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/43108-merged-tiebreaker-with-new-england-1-seed/page__view__findpost__p__890639[/url]

That was before the Browns game , and though the theoretical possibility of losing the SOV advantage may still have existed then , the odds of it occurring would have been infinitesmally small. Too many games would have to fall just so.

Anyway , thanks for doing the legwork on the formal proof , but don't count on everyone being convinced. In fact , you can probably count on continuing to be driven crazy.

[Fricknmaniac]

Yeah, I've been using the ESPN playoff machine to measure the worst case scenario for the Strength of Victory before this and knew that the Ravens had a big lead in that category going forward, but of course ESPN and CBS always ignored that to slurp the Patriots some more.

On a random tangent, did anyone else notice how many times it was pointed out that the Patriots had the easiest schedule remaining of the top AFC contenders last week? Of course now that the Patriots have the Colts out of the way, they're actually tied with the Steelers for the hardest remaining schedule out of the top 9 win teams. The Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule, but I'm sure that won't get nearly as much airtime this week.

Anyway, I finally noticed after Sunday that the worst case scenario no longer resulted in the Patriots winning the SoV tiebreaker, but all of the analysts were still saying it was impossible to determine what SoV tiebreaker would result in. While it's true that we don't know what the SoV will ultimately turn out to be, we can determine the worst and best case scenario, and since the Ravens still have a better SoV in the worst case scenario, that means they've clinched that tiebreaker.

That's when I sat down to really do the hard math to figure out myself if the Ravens had clinched it and that resulted in the post.

The ironic thing about this is that I wouldn't have been spurred to do this at all if ESPN didn't have the playoff machine. You'd think the analysts that are saying it's impossible to determine SoV until the end of the season would think to spend 5 minutes using an excellent program on their own website.

I did email it to the ESPN AFC North blogger and I wanted to email it to Sarah Ellison, but I wasn't able to find any contact information on the website.

[Tank 92]

[quote name='Fricknmaniac' timestamp='1323128837' post='896870']
First of all, let me apologize for the length of this post, but I wanted to be thorough as possible to exhaust any possible question. For those that don't wish to read the entire post, here is the gist of it:

[/quote]


Dag. You are a frickin' maniac! Your post has to be up there with the longest ever.

I'll read it after we win out.

[I AM LEGEND]

Unfortunately I see the Ravens losing one to SD or Cinncy..and I don't see Pitt losing again...that ruins everything..

However like the last 3 years I don't see a tuff 1st round opponent...maybe the texans just bc of that defense..but nothing we can't get past..that leaves us traveling to NE or pitt...and God forbid we end this season on cold gloomy night in Pitt.......AGAIN.

[hawkprey]

[quote name='I AM LEGEND' timestamp='1323144027' post='897173']
Unfortunately I see the Ravens losing one to SD or Cinncy..and I don't see Pitt losing again...that ruins everything..

However like the last 3 years I don't see a tuff 1st round opponent...maybe the texans just bc of that defense..but nothing we can't get past..that leaves us traveling to NE or pitt...and God forbid we end this season on cold gloomy night in Pitt.......AGAIN.
[/quote]
Really? The 49ers won't be a challenge for them?
And it remains to be seen if the Cincy game will even matter. If they lose to Houston next week, they may not have a chance to get back in the playoffs with a win against us. On the other hand, if they beat Houston, we might be able to afford to lose a game (if Pitt loses as well).

[I AM LEGEND]

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1323144481' post='897176']

Really? The 49ers won't be a challenge for them?
And it remains to be seen if the Cincy game will even matter. If they lose to Houston next week, they may not have a chance to get back in the playoffs with a win against us. On the other hand, if they beat Houston, we might be able to afford to lose a game (if Pitt loses as well).
[/quote]

Challenge? Of course....will the 49ers win....I don't think so..

After the 49ers...I think the Steelers are home free...

SD losing tonight would have done wonders for us..and probably made them pack in the season...but they won..and with that division they can still win it..so they'll come hard for us...and I've been saying it..but as long as there's breath in SD I expect them to be a challenge..

As far as the Bengals yes they could very well be in it..or be out of it..either way its almost 90% sure that they'll be bringing it that last game..their a young team that even if eliminated at that point will play hard..they don't have a old QB or RB or WR that they'll be looking to get rest or sit if anything they want those guys to gain the experience of beating a division rival..

Are best bet is to keep praying Houston, NE and Pitt trip up...but nothing The Ravens have shown us makes me confident they can run the table...especially with 2 potential playoff teams on the schedule

[Alexir]

Houston has:
Cincy
Carolina
Indy
Tennessee

I can see Carolina or even Orlovsky and company upsetting the Texans...

Patriots have:
Skins
Denver
Miami
Buffalo

They will take care of their schedule.

Man, I wish our offense showed up against Jacksonville. We could of used that game since it's in conference.....Titans came would be nice too but I felt we lost that game on both sides of the ball, with the Jags....it was all the offense who blew it.

[JO_75]

[quote name='Alexir' timestamp='1323146312' post='897197']
Houston has:
Cincy
Carolina
Indy
Tennessee

I can see Carolina or even Orlovsky and company upsetting the Texans...

Patriots have:
Skins
Denver
Miami
Buffalo

They will take care of their schedule.

Man, I wish our offense showed up against Jacksonville. We could of used that game since it's in conference.....Titans came would be nice too but I felt we lost that game on both sides of the ball, with the Jags....it was all the offense who blew it.
[/quote]

Believe in Tebow!!!!!!!!!!!! Believe in Tebow!!!!!!!!! As long as we take care of business we'll be fine. It will be because of the Broncos why the Ravens have the 1 Seed, Broncos will defeat Patriots!

On the other hand, I'm now worried about the Chargers. Damn you Schedule makers for having us play the Chargers in December. I have a feeling we are going to lose to the Chargers.

[OUravensfan]

[quote name='Fricknmaniac' timestamp='1323128837' post='896870']First of all, let me apologize for the length of this post, but I wanted to be thorough as possible to exhaust any possible question. For those that don't wish to read the entire post, here is the gist of it: If the Ravens win all four of their remaining games, then they will get the #1 seed in the AFC, regardless of what scenario comes up. Let me preface this by saying it's been driving me absolutely crazy over the last week with the number of people saying that the Patriots will get the #1 seed if they win out, or that it is impossible to determine who would win a Strength of Victory tiebreaker until the season is over. After week 13, both of these statements are completely false, because the Ravens have clinched the Strength of Victory tie-breaker over both the Texans and the Patriots if all three teams win out. These are the possible scenarios: Ravens are the only 13-3 team, no tie-breakers needed. Ravens and Steelers are the only 13-3 teams, Ravens win divisional tie-breaker. This is true for every scenario, the divisional tiebreaker is applied first, then when one team per division is left, the conference tiebreakers come into play. Ravens and Patriots are the only 13-3 teams. There was no head-to-head match-up, both have the same conference record, the Ravens have a better common games record 5-0 vs 4-1. Ravens and Texans are the only 13-3 teams. Ravens win because of a head-to-head win. Ravens, Texans, and Patriots all finish at 13-3. No team swept the other two, all three have the same conference record, there aren't enough common games to use that tiebreaker so it comes down to Strength of Victory. Here is where it gets tricky, but I have done the math to prove that the Ravens have already clinched that tiebreaker. The Strength of Victory is determined by the record of the teams that they defeated (teams that they've beaten twice have their records counted twice.) Here would be the 13 wins by each of the three teams: Patriots: Dolphins x2, Chargers, Raiders, Jets x2, Cowboys, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Broncos, and Bills. Texans: Colts x2, Dolphins, Steelers, Titans x2, Jaguars x2, Browns, Buccaneers, Falcons, Bengals, Panthers. Ravens: Steelers x2, Rams, Jets, Texans, Cardinals, Bengals x2, 49ers, Browns x2, Colts, Chargers. So for each case we need to compare the best case for each of the Texans and Patriots and the worst case for the Ravens. We tackle each scenario separately because having it anywhere in between favors the Ravens, we want to look at the worst possible case for the Ravens. First we'll look at the worst case scenario for the Ravens and the best case scenario for the Patriots. We can eliminate the common wins between the two teams that each team only won once. This removes the Colts and Chargers from the equation. (It doesn't remove the Jets because each Jets win counts twice as much for the Patriots than it does for the Ravens.) So we want the best record possible for the following teams to maximize the SoV for the Patriots: Dolphins (x2): 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Eagles, Bills, Patriots, Jets Raiders: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Packers, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers Jets (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins Cowboys: 6-6 Remaining Schedule: Giants, Buccaneers, Eagles, Giants Chiefs: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: Jets, Packers, Raiders, Broncos Eagles: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys, Redskins Redskins: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Patriots, Giants, Vikings, Eagles Broncos: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Bears, Patriots, Bills, Chiefs Bills: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, Patriots And we want the worst record possible for the following teams to minimize the SoV for the Ravens: Steelers (x2): 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Browns, 49ers, Rams, Browns Rams: 2-10 Remaining Schedule: Seahawks, Bengals, Steelers, 49ers Jets: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins Texans: 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans Cardinals: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: 49ers, Browns, Bengals, Seahawks Bengals (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Texans, Rams, Cardinals, Ravens 49ers: 10-2 Remaining Schedule: Cardinals, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams Browns (x2): 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens, Steelers Using the current records, the SoV for the Ravens and Patriots based if all three teams win out, which is the only way the SoV comes into play, will be: (Remember this example just looks at the SoV for the Ravens and Patriots and doesn't include the common teams that count equal towards both teams.) Patriots: 60-72 Ravens: 73-59 Best case scenario for the Patriots: (Note that there are a lot of head-to-head matchups where regardless of who wins the game the Patriots' SoV would get a 1-1 record in the game, like Raiders vs. Chiefs. In this case it doesn't matter who wins, so the first team in the list is arbitrarily selected to win.) Dolphins go 3-1 (x2) (loss to the Patriots) Raiders go 4-0 Jets go 3-1 (x2)(loss to the Dolphins) (It helps the Patriots more for the Dolphins to beat the Jets because the Ravens also beat the Jets) Cowboys go 4-0 Chiefs go 2-2 (losses to the Jets and Raiders) Eagles go 1-3 (losses to the Jets, Dolphins, and Cowboys) Redskins go 2-2 (losses to the Patriots and Eagles) Broncos go 2-2 (losses to the Patriots and Chiefs) Bills go 1-3 (losses to the Dolphins, Broncos, and Patriots.) It would be impossible for the Patriots SoV to improve more than it does in that scenario. In that best case scenario their SoV would be: 28-16 plus 60-72 which plays out to: Patriots: 88-88 On the flip side we want to look at the worst case scenario for the Ravens SoV: Steelers go 2-2 (x2)(losses to the Rams and 49ers) Rams go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks) Jets go 3-1 (loss to the Dolphins as per the Patriots best case scenario) Texans go 4-0 (required for the SoV tiebreaker to come into play) Cardinals go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks) Bengals go 0-4 (x2)(losses to the Texans, Rams, Cardinals, and Ravens) 49ers go 1-3 (losses to the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams) Browns go 0-4 (x2)(losses to the Steelers x2, Cardinals, and Ravens) And it would be impossible for there to be a three way tie and the Ravens SoV to be worse than in this scenario, so their SoV would be: 18-28 plus 73-59 which plays out to: Ravens: 91-85 Patriots 88-88 So in the best case scenario for the Patriots and the worst case scenario for the Ravens, the Ravens still end up with a better SoV. So against the Patriots the Ravens have clinched the SoV tiebreaker. This would still be true if you added in the records for the Colts and Chargers because they could equally for both teams and wouldn't change the outcome. If you want to factor in the Chargers and Colts, assume they finish with the best record possible according to the previous outcomes, the Colts would go 2-2 and the Chargers would finish 2-3 which means the best total SoV for the Patriots and the worst possible under the same circumstances for the Ravens would be: Ravens: 99-109 Patriots: 96-112 As you can see, the Ravens would still have a 2 game advantage in the SoV. Next we'll analyze the best case scenario for the Texans and the worst case scenario for the Ravens: Neither team has a common opponent so we'll have to look at all thirteen victories for both teams. First, the victories for the Texans and their remaining schedule: Colts (x2): 0-12 Remaining Schedule: Ravens, Titans, Texans, Jaguars Dolphins: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Eagles, Bills, Patriots, Jets Steelers: 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Browns, 49ers, Rams, Browns Titans (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Saints, Colts, Jaguars, Texans Jaguars (x2): 3-8 Remaining Schedule: Chargers, Buccaneers, Falcons, Titans, Colts Browns: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens, Steelers Buccaneers: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Jaguars, Cowboys, Panthers, Falcons Falcons: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Panthers, Jaguars, Saints, Buccaneers Bengals: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Texans, Rams, Cardinals, Ravens Panthers: 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Falcons, Texans, Buccaneers, Saints Steelers (x2): 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Browns, 49ers, Rams, Browns Rams: 2-10 Remaining Schedule: Seahawks, Bengals, Steelers, 49ers Jets: 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins Texans: 9-3 Remaining Schedule: Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans Cardinals: 5-7 Remaining Schedule: 49ers, Browns, Bengals, Seahawks Bengals (x2): 7-5 Remaining Schedule: Texans, Rams, Cardinals, Ravens 49ers: 10-2 Remaining Schedule: Cardinals, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams Browns (x2): 4-8 Remaining Schedule: Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens, Steelers Colts: 0-12 Remaining Schedule: Ravens, Titans, Texans, Jaguars Chargers: 4-7 Remaining Schedule: Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, Lions, Raiders SoV based on current records (assuming all three teams win out:) Texans: 59-95 Ravens: 77-78 (Note that because the Jaguars and Chargers haven't played yet, the Texans have one fewer overall game) Best case scenario for the Texans: Colts go 2-2 (x2)(losses to the Ravens and Texans) Dolphins go 3-1 (loss to the Patriots) Steelers go 2-2 (losses to the 49ers and Rams) (The Steelers winning helps the Ravens more than it does the Texans) Titans go 2-2 (x2)(losses to the Colts and Texans) Jaguars go 3-2 (x2)(losses to the Titans and Colts) Browns go 0-4 (losses to the Steelers x2, Cardinals, and Ravens) Buccaneers go 3-1 (loss to the Jaguars) Falcons go 2-2 (losses to the Jaguars and Buccaneers) Bengals go 0-4 (losses to the Texans, Rams, Cardinals, and Ravens) Panthers go 1-3 (losses to Falcons, Texans, and Buccaneers) The best case scenario for the remaining games for the Texans would be: 25-29 + 59-95 which is: Texans: 84-124 And for the Ravens: Steelers go 2-2 (losses to the 49ers and Rams) Rams go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks) Jets go 0-4 (losses to the Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins) Texans go 4-0 Cardinals go 3-1 (loss to the Seahawks) Bengals go 0-4 (losses to the Texans, Rams, Cardinals, and Ravens) 49ers go 1-3 (losses to the Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams) Browns go 0-4 (losses to the Steelers x2, Cardinals, and Ravens) Colts go 2-2 (losses to the Ravens and Texans) Chargers go 0-5 (losses to the Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, Lions, and Raiders) The worst case scenario for the Ravens would be 17-38 plus 77-78 resulting in: Ravens: 94-114 Texans: 84-124 As you can see the Ravens have clinched the SoV tiebreaker over the Texans as well. Even if every possible game swung in favor of the Patriots and against the Ravens, and likewise in a separate scenario for the Texans and against the Ravens, the Ravens would still have a stronger Strength of Victory than either team. Thus it can be stated that if the Ravens win their remaining four games, they will clinch the #1 playoff seed in the AFC and with it homefield advantage. edit: I did make one minor error in having both the 49ers and the Steelers losing their head-to-head matchup, but after fixing it, that only improves the Ravens position.[/quote]

Thank you so much. That was awesome, glad someone did it. How long did that take you? I bet no one on ESPN even does that.

But really good to see that we will get #1 seed if we win out no matter what.

[ravensdfan]

Wow. A lot of calculating in this thread now. I have to admit that it made me really nervous when the announcers were saying that if NE wins out they have the #1 Seed locked up. Arrrgggghhhh!

[Fricknmaniac]

The current seeding in the AFC is the Texans #1 because of the best conference record (they've played one more conference game than the Patriots and Ravens have.) And the Ravens win over the Patriots with a better common games record: 4-0 vs. 3-1.

Of course this doesn't change the fact that the Ravens will clinch home-field advantage if they win out, even if there is a three-way tie between the Ravens, Patriots, and Texans. (As I mathematically proved in an earlier post.)