MERGED: Tiebreaker With New England - #1 Seed

[Alexir]

Right now we are the 3rd seed because Houston "Wins tie break over New England and Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games" and New England "Wins tie break over Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games"

That Jaguar and Seattle games are coming back to haunt us. More so the Jags because it's in conference but if we played like a football team we would have a 2 game lead as the number 1 seed. We gotta win out for the number 1 spot.

[BenDufusberger]

Here's something interesting in the updated playoff standings at ESPN :

[url="http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false"]http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false[/url]

The Ravens are the only team in the NFL that has a stronger Strength of Victory (SOV) percentage than Strength of Schedule (SOS) percentage. This is because we've beaten every good team we played , while our 3 losses were to weaker teams. Other teams probably beat most of the teams weaker than them , while having a more mixed record against good teams. With GB , SOV and SOS are equal , of course , since they haven't lost.

The other thing to note is that our SOV is by far the best in the league at .591 , while the second-best among teams with at least 7 victories is Oakland at .481

Leaving aside GB , the Ravens have best demonstrated that they can beat the good teams.

All we have to do is figure out how to beat the bad ones , and we're all set.

[Maryland1]

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures: [url="http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures"]http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures[/url]

[reediddy]

I don't see Houston retaining that #1 seed through the end of the season, their lack of QB will hurt. The #2 seed is ours for the taking. We just basically have to win out

[RavensFanInCA]

[quote name='Moderator 5' timestamp='1322459796' post='888996']
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures: [url="http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures"]http://www.nfl.com/s...akingprocedures[/url]
[/quote]

It seems the biggest issue is that it's a three-way tie with NE and HOU. If it was just us and HOU, we'd have the edge, but since it's a three-way tie, they use conference records to tie-break.

With that being said... if the three of us all win out the rest of our games, SOV and SOS are the next two tiebreakers, both of which we hold over NE and HOU.

[Crabcakes&Football]

One thing I don't get.... They say Houston has the seed over us now because of better conference record, we own the head-to-head. I thought that went first?

[1/28/01]

[quote name='Crabcakes&Football' timestamp='1322495397' post='889194']
One thing I don't get.... They say Houston has the seed over us now because of better conference record, we own the head-to-head. I thought that went first?
[/quote]
read everything above your post

[Wallace17_OutRunMe]

[quote name='Crabcakes&Football' timestamp='1322495397' post='889194']
One thing I don't get.... They say Houston has the seed over us now because of better conference record, we own the head-to-head. I thought that went first?
[/quote]
If the Ravens win out and finish at 13-3 even if the Steelers,Pats,and Texans all win out they will be the number 1 seed in the AFC it's as simple as that. So what if Houston is ahead of the Ravens now because of a techinicality, that will all change if the Ravens handle their own business and win out...

[PuRock]

[quote name='Wallace17_OutRunMe' timestamp='1322495893' post='889208']
If the Ravens win out and finish at 13-3 even if the Steelers,Pats,and Texans all win out they will be the number 1 seed in the AFC it's as simple as that. So what if Houston is ahead of the Ravens now because of a techinicality, that will all change if the Ravens handle their own business and win out...
[/quote]

Houston also has a tough two game road ahead with no QB. vs Falcons, @Bengals,

[FerrariFan87]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1322496240' post='889216']
Houston also has a tough two game road ahead with no QB. vs Falcons, @Bengals,
[/quote]

Houston is not winning out.... not with T.J. Yates at QB, although that D is really stepping up.

[PuRock]

[quote name='FerrariFan87' timestamp='1322496558' post='889221']

Houston is not winning out.... not with T.J. Yates at QB, although that D is really stepping up.
[/quote]

They will be getting Sage Rosenfels. Who, IMO, is a better option than Leinhart. Only problem is he'll have to take some time to get back into football shape and take enough snaps with the 1st team to get going.

[Wallace17_OutRunMe]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1322496240' post='889216']
Houston also has a tough two game road ahead with no QB. vs Falcons, @Bengals,
[/quote]
Houston had better go sign a QB and sign one fast if they want to have any hope at all of making any kind of playoff run. There is talk of them possibly signing Jeff Garcia within the next few days which would be a big upgrade over what they have right now in TJ Yates. I dont think the Texans at this point have any chance at all of getting one of the top 2 seeds in the AFC with their QB situation and as you pointed out with their upcoming schedule. I still think the Texans will win the South and hold off the Titans for the division but it wont surprise me one bit if the Raiders who I believe are going to win the AFC West pass them up for that number 3 seed and the Texans drop to the 4 seed. Remember the Raiders beat the Texans in Houston earlier this season and own the head to head tiebraker over them should they both finish with the same record. At this point barring any major collapses the top 2 seeds in the AFC will go to either the Ravens or Steelers,and the Patriots...

[NeoZer0]

The NFL's tie breaking procedures are stupid. We have a better division record than New England and we beat Houston head to head and we are behind both of them. That's the dumbest thing I have ever seen.

The only thing I see from this is "Ravens need to WIN WIN WIN WIN"

[UMDan]

Okay so obviously winning out is the best answer, but I'm still a little confused on a couple of things.

I looked and saw that Houston and New England are ahead of us due to more AFC wins. Houston is 7-2, NE is 6-2, Ravens are 5-2. However, by the end of the season we'll all have had 12 AFC games. Houston has 3 left (Cincy, Indy, Tenn), NE has 4 left (Indy, Denver, Miami, Buffalo), and we have five left (Clevelandx2, Indy, SD, Cincy).

So technically we are third but only because we have played less AFC games than New England or Houston. Hypothetically, let's say that all three teams do not lose a single AFC game for the remainder of the season. Would we not be first place then, since we have a tiebreaker over Houston and have beaten the Jets who beat the Pats?

[PuRock]

[quote name='UMDan' timestamp='1322503894' post='889299']
Okay so obviously winning out is the best answer, but I'm still a little confused on a couple of things.

I looked and saw that Houston and New England are ahead of us due to more AFC wins. Houston is 7-2, NE is 6-2, Ravens are 5-2. However, by the end of the season we'll all have had 12 AFC games. Houston has 3 left (Cincy, Indy, Tenn), NE has 4 left (Indy, Denver, Miami, Buffalo), and we have five left (Clevelandx2, Indy, SD, Cincy).

So technically we are third but only because we have played less AFC games than New England or Houston. Hypothetically, let's say that all three teams do not lose a single AFC game for the remainder of the season. Would we not be first place then, since we have a tiebreaker over Houston and have beaten the Jets who beat the Pats?
[/quote]

It gets a little dicey if three teams are tied. I've seen a ton of different answers. I know a lot of people say if we win out we get the #1 seed. But this might not be the case if it is a three way tie.

So lets try and break it down. Here are the rules from NFL.com


[quote]
[b] OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES[/b]

3. To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

[b] Three or More Club[/b]
[b]1. [/b]Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of Victory

[/quote]

1. Doesn't apply. None of the three teams are divisional opponent
2. Doesn't apply. Head-to-Head . One team would need to beat or lose to both teams tied. Didn't happen
3. Doesn't apply. Conference record % would be the same.
4. Here's where it gets tricky. Does the head-to-head between the Texans & Us count? Does the minimum of four games apply to everybody in the tie? We hold the tiebreaker against the Pats in this regard. But the Texans beat the Titans but lost to us. But if it is 4 common games between all three teams, those conditions haven't been met.
5. Strength of victory.Currently we have the best SOV. I dont' know if it changes with the upcoming games for all three squads. But I find it hard to believe that we wouldn't.

[b]So bottom-line, who knows? We all can take educated opinions and feel strongly about them. But there are a lot of questions to be answered about common opponents. [/b]

[b]Logically it would make sense we should be the #1 seed with a head-to-head win against the Texans and a better common opponent % than the Pats.[/b]

[Tank 92]

No one is going to the playoffs for a few weeks so looking at any tie breaking procedures at this point of the season is meaningless.

I think if we win out we are the #1 seed. So let's just do that and see what happens.

[PuRock]

[quote name='awholelottahaloti' timestamp='1322505376' post='889317']
No one is going to the playoffs for a few weeks so looking at any tie breaking procedures at this point of the season is meaningless.

I think if we win out we are the #1 seed. So let's just do that and see what happens.
[/quote]

I agree. But people just continue to ask the question and I feel obliged to answer. Its also fun to get an understanding of the procedures if incase it does happen.

There are still 5 games left on the schedule that can change the standings significantly. I find it hard that the Texans will win out with their current QB situation.

[Tank 92]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1322505525' post='889319']

I agree. But people just continue to ask the question and I feel obliged to answer. Its also fun to get an understanding of the procedures if incase it does happen.

There are still 5 games left on the schedule that can change the standings significantly. I find it hard that the Texans will win out with their current QB situation.
[/quote]


Yeah, I think you can pretty much stick a fork in the texans. What horrible luck losing 2 QBs so quickly.Given their situation, I think the falcons probably handle them this week. I do hope they beat the the bengals though.

The pats could lose to the broncos at Mile High. Seems as though there are some strange things going on out in Colorado.

We just need to win out and that is all we can do other than root for anyone playing the pats, and squealers. Go skins(?)!

[Ravens Beast]

We win out-we get the #1 seed

[Twistidfunk]

I didn't read the whole thread becasue it is 4 pages now but just keep in mind that it is still too early to determine ANYTHING becasue the season has not played out and therfore the strength of schedule has not been determined.

Bottom line is win out and we make playoffs with a very good chance of hosting 2 games but definitely 1 game.

[K-Dog]

I am just gonna stop paying attention until January.

[EdReedFTW]

I dont remember where it was posted(probably PFT) but its unknown who will get the top seeds if all three teams win out. The tie break would end up being strength of victory since everything before then would be a tie (duh) since we dont know the final SOV until the season ends there's no way to know who would get the bye. HOWEVER since as everyone knows we've all beaten the good teams and lost to the weak ones there's a good chance it would be us.

[cursona pirate]

[quote name='EdReedFTW' timestamp='1322613854' post='890537']
I dont remember where it was posted(probably PFT) but its unknown who will get the top seeds if all three teams win out. The tie break would end up being strength of victory since everything before then would be a tie (duh) since we dont know the final SOV until the season ends there's no way to know who would get the bye. HOWEVER since as everyone knows we've all beaten the good teams and lost to the weak ones there's a good chance it would be us.
[/quote]
However we have to win all of our remaing games for it to be a good chance to be us. If we lose even one of the last 5 games, i dont think we get it.

[BenDufusberger]

[quote name='EdReedFTW' timestamp='1322613854' post='890537']
I dont remember where it was posted(probably PFT) but its unknown who will get the top seeds if all three teams win out. The tie break would end up being strength of victory since everything before then would be a tie (duh) since we dont know the final SOV until the season ends there's no way to know who would get the bye. HOWEVER since as everyone knows we've all beaten the good teams and lost to the weak ones there's a good chance it would be us.
[/quote]

Technically it's true that you can't project SOV rankings with four games left to play. However , you can guage the probabilities , and I don't think there's any likely scenario where all four teams win out - i.e. Ravens , Steelers , Texans , and Patriots - and the seed order is anything other than Ravens #1 and Patriots #2.

I've been thru the ESPN playoff machine using all six of their criteria for choosing the winners of all remaining league games - winning % , power ranking , home team , away team , defensive ranking , and offensive ranking - and under each setting I adjusted the results so that all four of the above teams win out , finishing at 13-3. Under all six scenarios , the Ravens get #1 seed and the Patriots #2 , always based on the SOV tiebreaker. That's a lot of permutations of final league won-loss records , all yielding the same result. It would take a lot of freaky games all falling in just the right way to make it work out any differently , IMO.

[JO_75]

I don't know how, but last week the Texans were ahead of the Ravens due to the better conference record and the fact it was a 3 way tie with the Patriots, Ravens and Texans. This week..... Ravens, Texans, Patriots are 9-3 and the Patriots are the 1 Seed, Ravens are the 2 Seed and Texans are the 3rd Seed... so how is it conference record was why the Texans were ahead last week but yet while it is still a 3 way tie, this week ESPN says we are ahead due to the H2H tiebreaker. I want to know why the H2H didn't matter last week but this week all of a sudden it does?

[Guest Moderator 6]

[quote name='JO_75' timestamp='1323047875' post='895598']
I don't know how, but last week the Texans were ahead of the Ravens due to the better conference record and the fact it was a 3 way tie with the Patriots, Ravens and Texans. This week..... Ravens, Texans, Patriots are 9-3 and the Patriots are the 1 Seed, Ravens are the 2 Seed and Texans are the 3rd Seed... so how is it conference record was why the Texans were ahead last week but yet while it is still a 3 way tie, this week ESPN says we are ahead due to the H2H tiebreaker. I want to know why the H2H didn't matter last week but this week all of a sudden it does?
[/quote]
I'm not exactly sure. [i]It could be that they're not updated yet.[/i] Last week the Texas had the better conference record. With them playing an NFC team this week and the Ravens beating an AFC team, we're all even.

It may be the tie-breakers amongst divisional teams is applied here:

[b] Three or More Clubs[/b]

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).[list=1]
[*]Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
[*][b]Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games[/b].
[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
[*]Strength of victory.
[*]Strength of schedule.
[/list]

[JO_75]

[quote name='Moderator 6' timestamp='1323048200' post='895617']
I'm not exactly sure. [i]It could be that they're not updated yet.[/i] Last week the Texas had the better conference record. With them playing an NFC team this week and the Ravens beating an AFC team, we're all even.

It may be the tie-breakers amongst divisional teams is applied here:

[b] Three or More Clubs[/b]

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).[list=1]
[*]Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
[*][b]Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games[/b].
[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
[*]Strength of victory.
[*]Strength of schedule.
[/list]
[/quote]

That's what I'm thinking, that it's not updated yet because the Texans have a 7-2 Conference Record while the Ravens are 6-2 in the conference. I think it will be updated tomorrow with Texans and Patriots still Seeded 1 and 2 while Ravens will be third. We just need the Texans or Patriots to lose along the way in order to get one of the Top 2 Seeds.

[1/28/01]

[quote name='JO_75' timestamp='1323048569' post='895639']

That's what I'm thinking, that it's not updated yet because the Texans have a 7-2 Conference Record while the Ravens are 6-2 in the conference. I think it will be updated tomorrow with Texans and Patriots still Seeded 1 and 2 while Ravens will be third. We just need the Texans or Patriots to lose along the way in order to get one of the Top 2 Seeds.
[/quote]
Or just keep winning...

[PeRK82]

We should have a pretty easy cake walk if the Bengals play like they did today against the Stealers.

I guess our Only hope that the Stealers lose one is against the 9ers, I think the 49ers have a good chance , after we played them, its like they never lost a beat. They whopped the team they played today.

Oh on a side note - like usual , The Stealers got more help from the Zebras yet again. Its getting real old. Also i love how the Stealers fans say the Refs helped us when we beat them, that couldnt be further from the truth.

[JohnnyBoy8102]

I wish the head to head game would be the tiebreaker. It just would make more sense since the Ravens beat the Texans.