First Overall Pick

[The King]

By the grace of God I have somehow managed to get the first overall pick in a fantasy league I play in with some fraternity brothers of mine. However, I now have a huge problem in deciding which player to take with it. The five players I'm most seriously looking at are Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and Ray Rice.

Chris Johnson is an explosive back with potential to make a lot happen in the passing game. Many people view him as an easy choice number one, but I have a lot of questions about the surround offense and how effective he can continue to be if the Titans never manage to put together a passing game. Regardless of these, he is still one of the best utility backs in the league and I can't help but consider the possibility of him putting together another season with over 2000 all purpose yards.

Adrian Peterson is probably the best pure runningback in the league with the ball in his hands, and he seemed to have solved the fumbling problem that plagued him earlier in his career this past season. Although he put together great season numbers, he was woefully inconsistent from week to week this past season, and people lost games because of him as well as winning them. I view him and Chris Johnson as slam dunks at number one because, while other backs might have good or bad seasons, they are money in the bank. Peterson is, at this point, I think the safest option number one overall.

Jamaal Charles burst onto the scene in the end of '09 with a strong series of games and carried that momentum into the 2010 season, averaging almost 6.4 yards per carry and proving an enormous boon to people who recognized him as something special. However, he lost a lot of goal line work to Thomas Jones, and Le'ron McClain, as we are all well aware, was looking for a home where he could be more of a ball carrier. If the Chiefs had signed McClain to be a real fullback then I would probably make Charles my number one pick with no thought, but he may be stealing 100-150 carries out of Charles' hands. Charles plays with a solid team, a decent QB in Cassel and a WR with outrageous physical tools in Dwayne Bowe. The big question about him is whether he can repeat his strong showing and if he can develop into an every down back with the same incredible per carry average that he had last year.

Arian Foster has a similar story to Charles, though their styles could not be more different. After winning the NFL's rushing title last season their is a lot of hype around Foster leading into this year, and he has the kind of hard nosed running style I can't help but love. However, he played on a torn up knee last year that's just begging to completely fall apart this season, not to mention losing his All Pro fullback to our Ravens. I almost feel like I'm considering him only out of obligation to his amazing season, but I can't deny those numbers or the potency of the offense around him with Schaub, Daniels, and Johnson.

Ray Rice is my favorite, and there's no way around that. I might not be considering him if I didn't love my Ravens so much, but you can't deny the validity of the argument in his favor. He plays with a QB whose numbers have improved incredibly each season, he's possibly the best RB in the league at getting the ball out of the backfield, and the Ravens just resigned one of the league's best guards while bringing in possibly the best blocking FBs in the league. Maybe it's just that I know so much about his situation, but I can't help loving what I see. Plus he plays for a team that wants to commit to running the ball better this season. When you consider his own talent, it seems to me that a year from now we might all be regarding him as the favorite to be everyone's number one pick. However, it's hard to say he has the pure talent of the other backs I'm considering, without the power or pure speed of other elite backs.


That's my somewhat lengthy analysis of each one. Please give me some opinions and let me know if you think I'm overlooking anyone.

[theFRANCHISE]

It's a risky proposition picking 1st overall, especially if you're looking at a RB. The biggest concern with all of these backs are that they are the undisputed #1 back on their respective teams and will likely see an increased workload from last season, particularly in the case of Rice and Foster. On that basis alone, I would eliminate Rice and Foster from the equation, especially Foster since there's no guarantee he can duplicate his success without Vonta Leach. While the homer in me says to take Ray Rice, I'm concerned that he'll have a heavier workload with no viable backup to spell him.

If you had a later pick in the 1st round, Jamaal Charles would be respectable. However, having your pick of the litter, Charles is too high to be 1st overall.

It now comes down to Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, which is like splitting the thinnest of hairs. While everyone expects CJ2K's dominance to continue, I'm concerned that he might hit the wall this season with how he's put the entire offense on his back. The same concerns lie with Adrian Peterson, though Peterson has that offensive line to make his job easier.

My gut instinct tells me to take Adrian Peterson over Chris Johnson, but it's still a risky proposition. You can't really go wrong with either guy, but you just have to hope that neither goes down with a serious injury. I'd take Charles or Rice in the 2nd round if at all possible and then handcuff their respective backup later.

[T-ray]

I don't think Charles/Rice will make it that long Franny. Every mock draft I've been part of, they get taken in the mid-late round of the 1st, and I've seen Charles picked as high as early 1st.

[PuRock]

[quote name='T-ray' timestamp='1312718107' post='739468']
I don't think Charles/Rice will make it that long Franny. Every mock draft I've been part of, they get taken in the mid-late round of the 1st, and I've seen Charles picked as high as early 1st.
[/quote]

Yep. Charles usually goes between 3 and 6. Sometimes even 1 like you said. But considering how many touches he gets its hard to value him that high.

If I had the #1 pick, I'd go with AP and wouldn't question it for a second. Why? Because of consistency. He's been the most consistent back. You can draft him top 3, and expect him to finish top 3. He's a workhorse and I like him more now since Favre is gone. He's averaged over 300 touches per year and it looks to be the same this year. He's a goal line threat and he can catch balls.

Foster seems to be a sexy pick. But there is some risk. Can he repeat? Steve Slayton had an awesome first year with Houston than disappeared. He's lost his his pro-bowl FB and he might lose some carries to Ben Tate this year. Plus you have to figure the Texans division fores will concentrate their gameplan more around foster. Which is why I expect AJ to do better.

CJ I like as #2. The offense revolves around him. Now that Hassleback is in town, he's a clear #2. But can small frame continue the hits.

[PuRock]

Ofcourse if you read Matthew Berry's [url="http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=NFLDK2K11_TMRManifesto"]Draft Day Manifesto[/url], he'll try and convince you why Vick should be taken #1.

[Ed_Reed20]

[quote name='theFRANCHISE' timestamp='1312696870' post='739406']
The same concerns lie with Adrian Peterson, though Peterson has that offensive line to make his job easier.
[/quote]

From what I've read and seen, Minnesota's offensive line wasn't a plus last season. And the chances of them rebounding in 2011 don't look good.

With that said, I'd still go with [i]All Day[/i]. You can win with his floor production, and he's obviously a threat to break a long run on any carry.

[ravenbeast]

you take ray rice reason why?peterson new quaterback people will have 8 in the box same with chris johnson.arian foster no longer has his pro bowl lead blocker.and you cant take a quarterback because honestly good runningbacks are thin this year i believe.ray rice is gonna be our work horse and he has the tools around him to do that with flacco people cant put 8 in the box on him and know with leech we have a hard nosed fullback to pave the way.Also with mcgahee gone more snaps for rice.you can still get a quality quarterback latter like a flacco or freeman but the runninbacks that will be there arent gonna be good or good chance to have a shacky season.

[theFRANCHISE]

[quote name='ravenbeast' timestamp='1312733882' post='739635']
you take ray rice reason why?peterson new quaterback people will have 8 in the box same with chris johnson.
[/quote]
Teams have stacked the box against Peterson and CJ2K for years and it hasn't worked.

[The King]

I also like CJ and Arian Foster for their division. Even the usually stout Titans have been weak against the run in the past couple of years, and Foster's downhill style is good for breaking through tackles when he plays the Colts. It's the one edge I think they have on anyone else. Ray Rice is a great back, but when he plays the Steelers I have to hope he picks up enough in the receiving game to offset the fact that Pittsburgh doesn't allow backs to run on them.

[gabefergy]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1312725914' post='739522']
Ofcourse if you read Matthew Berry's [url="http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=NFLDK2K11_TMRManifesto"]Draft Day Manifesto[/url], he'll try and convince you why Vick should be taken #1.
[/quote]
If Vick can stay healthy, he is clearly the best fantasy player available. If you dont feel confident in Vick's health then I would go with Peterson.

[Ravens_2231]

I too voted for AD.

I agree with others that at times the #1 pick can be a bit of a curse, but as long as you do the safe/smart thing, it's harder to second guess as the season evolves.

[lowrider]

CJ is holding out. He will show signs of rust when he comes back. AP is your guy. Also, Foster's stock is hurt because Leech went to the Ravens. For that reason, Rice's stock goes up

[JO_75]

Forget CJ, he's holding out. Peterson I would take since with McNabb being the new QB, I would bet that the Vikings will take the load off McNabb and run the ball with Peterson more. Foster, well he just lost Leach, and the Texans offensive line is iffy. Rice might be the best option but even our offensive line is iffy, but he does have Leach so, I would choose between Peterson & Rice.

[ed.s52]

[quote name='lowrider' timestamp='1312934467' post='742833']
CJ is holding out. He will show signs of rust when he comes back. AP is your guy. Also, Foster's stock is hurt because[b] Leech[/b] went to the Ravens. For that reason, Rice's stock goes up
[/quote]

Is Leech some new guy from the Texans? I don't recall hearing about him, unless you are talking about the FB LeAch of course.

Se what I did there, went 1/28/01 on yall.

[Dave Stanley]

CJ Is not even training as good as he is it will be a long way back from that as we are all thinking this could be a big year for the Ravens that will hopefully mean a big year for Ray

[Gordo52]

I would pick Ray Rice just cuz Im a Ravens fan. But Peterson would be better pick. Rice may finish really high though, so it would be fun watching him go off every week.

[BMOREHAWAII]

I like Arian Foster just because of the spread offense Houston has and what threats they have in their core. Even though Leach is gone, expect McClain to continue being a pure blocking back with occasional passes thrown to him. Foster is a mirror image of Rice, that only difference is he has arguably the best WR in the league on the sidelines and Schaub at the helm for opposing defenses to worry about.

[flynismo]

Peterson. Having McNabb there seals the deal for me.

[Alexir]

I voted AP but it all depends how your scoring is. If your QB gets 6 pts a TD and a point for every 20 yards, than obviously I would say Aaron Rodgers. But in most cases, the number 1 guy is going to be AP. The problem is that all of these guys have question marks at this point.

AP=no offensive line
Chris Johnson=hasn't taken a snap in training camp, holding out
Ray Rice= Offensive Line issues
Jamaal Charles=Sharing Carries with Thomas Jones
Arian Foster=Can he have as much success without Vonta Leach there?

Having said that, AP should be the best bet

[Ravens_2231]

AD is the safest pick at #1, so that's who I'd go for. I think Arian Foster will come back to earth this season.
This year my friends and I are doing an auction draft, so I'm looking forward to that and not having to worry as much about draft position (just salary cap issues!).

[The Raven]

I was thinking about drafting Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not sold yet. Not the best fantasy drafter, what do y'all think? I also have the first pick.

[PuRock]

[quote name='The Raven' timestamp='1313705377' post='755284']
I was thinking about drafting Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not sold yet. Not the best fantasy drafter, what do y'all think? I also have the first pick.
[/quote]

Only time I would draft Rodgers #1 is if your in a league that can start two QBs and QBs got 6 points for TD.

[The Raven]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1313705515' post='755288']

Only time I would draft Rodgers #1 is if your in a league that can start two QBs and QBs got 6 points for TD.
[/quote]

I think my league follows those line-up/scoring rules but I'll double-check. Thanks.

[PuRock]

[quote name='The Raven' timestamp='1313705602' post='755290']

I think my league follows those line-up/scoring rules but I'll double-check. Thanks.
[/quote]

A lot of times the settings of the league will determine who is more valuable.

Since you said you aren't the best drafter. I'll give you my two cents. The difference between the #1 QB and the #10 QB is really not that great when you compare it to the #1 RB and the #20 RB or The #1 WR to the #30 WR. The difference in rankings numbers is relative to how many of those positions you start on your team. So the top picks at RB and WR are much more valuable than the top picks for QB/TE since you only start 1 QB.

Now the benefit of drafted a QB like Rodgers/Brees/Brady early is that you shouldn't worry about getting a second tier back-up in the middle rounds. Sometimes you can go without drafting a back-up QB at all. This allows you to get a more of an array of RBs and WRs while lacking top talent.

Now if you want to wait to get a QB, like a second tier guy. Roethlisberger/Flacco/Ryan/Freeman/Manning/, you'll want to load up with another second tier guy or Stafford/Bradford. This strategy will allow you to get better talent at RB/WR early in the draft.

There are many different strategies. But these two seem to be the most agreed upon this year. The same can be applied to TEs.

[The Raven]

[quote name='PuRock' timestamp='1313712510' post='755432']

A lot of times the settings of the league will determine who is more valuable.

Since you said you aren't the best drafter. I'll give you my two cents. The difference between the #1 QB and the #10 QB is really not that great when you compare it to the #1 RB and the #20 RB or The #1 WR to the #30 WR. The difference rankings numbers is relative to how many of those positions you start on your team. So the top picks at RB and WR are much more valuable than the top picks for QB/TE since you only start 1 QB.

Now the benefit of drafted a QB like Rodgers/Brees/Brady early is that you shouldn't worry about getting a second tier back-up in the middle rounds. Sometimes you can go without drafting a back-up QB at all. This allows you to get a more of an array of RBs and WRs while lacking top talent.

Now if you want to wait to get a QB, like a second tier guy. Roethlisberger/Flacco/Ryan/Freeman/Manning/, you'll want to load up with another second tier guy or Stafford/Bradford. This strategy will allow you to get better talent at RB/WR early in the draft.

There are many different strategies. But these two seem to be the most agreed upon this year. The same can be applied to TEs.
[/quote]

Thanks a bunch man. Much appreciated!