ESPN QBR Ratings....

[scrock]

Flacco would also be hurt in that system because of how Safe Cam plays it at times late in games, more points are rewarded late in games..this year if Flacco is given control of offense he can score better in that rating system.

Its all crap though..lets see how many games has he won since coming into the league? Oh he's tied or is 2nd to Dan Marino

[atljbo]

I saw the special late last night... I'm not saying this because they have Ryan high but i really like it... It gives QB's credit for using their legs... It also gives a QB credit for making an important throw in the 4th quarter... It doesnt have to be an TD.. It can be a 3rd and 7 throw to keep the drive alive... On the other end... It doesnt give you credit for doing a screen or dump down play and your WR or RB takes the ball 40 plus yards... It also doesnt deduct a point from the QB for throw a hail marry int at the end of the half (because it doesnt have an impact on the game)


It makes alot of sense... I definitely think its better then the passer rating ... In a blow out game a guy can easily pad his stats in the normal passer rating... In this system it doesnt reward you as much for that.


Also.. This system is not saying Matt Ryan is better then Brees and Rodgers... Its saying he had a better season (including all the new important unsung stats like 3rd down completions and 4th quarter clutch moments) .. 2010 regular season... They said Rodgers post season WB rating was 81.7 i think... Cant remember the exact number but i know its in the 80's.


When they should their QB rating over the last 3 years.... Ryan dint make their top 5... Brees and Rodgers did.

[ed.s52]

[quote name='atljbo' timestamp='1312658083' post='738202']
I saw the special late last night... I'm not saying this because they have Ryan high but i really like it... It gives QB's credit for using their legs... It also gives a QB credit for making an important throw in the 4th quarter... It doesnt have to be an TD.. It can be a 3rd and 7 throw to keep the drive alive... On the other end... It doesnt give you credit for doing a screen or dump down play and your WR or RB takes the ball 40 plus yards... It also doesnt deduct a point from the QB for throw a hail marry int at the end of the half (because it doesnt have an impact on the game)


It makes alot of sense... I definitely think its better then the passer rating ... In a blow out game a guy can easily pad his stats in the normal passer rating... In this system it doesnt reward you as much for that.


Also.. This system is not saying Matt Ryan is better then Brees and Rodgers... Its saying he had a better season (including all the new important unsung stats like 3rd down completions and 4th quarter clutch moments)


When they should their QB rating over the last 3 years.... Ryan dint make their top 5... Brees and Rodgers did.
[/quote]

I agree it is an intresting idea, and as a prototype it isnt bad, but even as a Flacons fan you have to admit that Matt Ryan wasnt the 2nd best QB his rookie year, nor was VY the 6th best QB in 2009.

The system has obvious holes that need to be improved on.

[hawkprey]

It's on again right now... I wonder how Trent Dilfer benefits from this system because he sure seems to like it. Or, you know, is being PAID by the people who came up with it.

[Blex64]

[quote name='atljbo' timestamp='1312658083' post='738202']
I saw the special late last night... I'm not saying this because they have Ryan high but i really like it... It gives QB's credit for using their legs... It also gives a QB credit for making an important throw in the 4th quarter... It doesnt have to be an TD.. It can be a 3rd and 7 throw to keep the drive alive... On the other end... It doesnt give you credit for doing a screen or dump down play and your WR or RB takes the ball 40 plus yards... It also doesnt deduct a point from the QB for throw a hail marry int at the end of the half (because it doesnt have an impact on the game)


It makes alot of sense... I definitely think its better then the passer rating ... In a blow out game a guy can easily pad his stats in the normal passer rating... In this system it doesnt reward you as much for that.


Also.. This system is not saying Matt Ryan is better then Brees and Rodgers... Its saying he had a better season (including all the new important unsung stats like 3rd down completions and 4th quarter clutch moments) .. 2010 regular season... They said Rodgers post season WB rating was 81.7 i think... Cant remember the exact number but i know its in the 80's.


When they should their QB rating over the last 3 years.... Ryan dint make their top 5... Brees and Rodgers did.
[/quote]

It does some things well, but there's a whole lot more it doesn't take into account. For example, they specifically claimed they didn't adjust for opponents (or other factors) to "keep things fair" which makes absolutely no sense. Flacco's checkdowns to Rice last season with our WR corps is another example. It's the right play if you don't have open receivers, but here he's penalized for it because a lot of the yards are YAC. Why is this a penalty to the QB? If you can throw a 9 yard pass with 3 YAC or a 4 yard pass with 25 YAC which is the correct decision?

There are glaring flaws in their methodology, and until they release a set in stone formula these are just made up numbers they're pulling out of their ***. I feel like the weight they give to "clutch" plays really IS them pulling a number out of thin air.

[atljbo]

[quote name='ed.s52' timestamp='1312658303' post='738207']
I agree it is an intresting idea, and as a prototype it isnt bad, but even as a Flacons fan you have to admit that Matt Ryan wasnt the 2nd best QB his rookie year, nor was VY the 6th best QB in 2009.

The system has obvious holes that need to be improved on.
[/quote]


I agree...Yea its wholes in every system ... It will always be wholes in every system... I do think this is way better then the passer rating system tho... Ilike how this system gives guys like Vince Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Vick points for their running abilities... Converting 3rd downs.

[atljbo]

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1312658359' post='738208']
It's on again right now... I wonder how Trent Dilfer benefits from this system because he sure seems to like it. Or, you know, is being PAID by the people who came up with it.
[/quote]


He helped make it

[ed.s52]

[quote name='atljbo' timestamp='1312658838' post='738215']
I agree...Yea its wholes in every system ... It will always be wholes in every system... I do think this is way better then the passer rating system tho... Ilike how this system gives guys like Vince Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Vick points for their running abilities... Converting 3rd downs.
[/quote]


I do like that about the system, but this is why the passer rating is much better in my eyes.

The Passer Rating just crunches the numbers as a passer, and the running yards ca be added to it. Similarly, we can look at other stats to see how clutch a QB is. The Passer rating doesnt claim to be the ultra-stat than the QBR claims, it just is a quick way to interpret their TD's, INT's, Completion %, Yards, and Completions.

Instead of looking at an ultra stat like the QBR, I'd rather look at for example Michael Vicks passer rating. Then I would look at his rushing stats, then how he did on third down. And finally on come from behind drives.

The QBR looks at that all for you and tries to make it into one stat, which obviously isnt the most reliable one.

[atljbo]

[quote name='Blex64' timestamp='1312658635' post='738210']
It does some things well, but there's a whole lot more it doesn't take into account. For example, they specifically claimed they didn't adjust for opponents (or other factors) to "keep things fair" which makes absolutely no sense. Flacco's checkdowns to Rice last season with our WR corps is another example. It's the right play if you don't have open receivers, but here he's penalized for it because a lot of the yards are YAC. Why is this a penalty to the QB? If you can throw a 9 yard pass with 3 YAC or a 4 yard pass with 25 YAC which is the correct decision?

There are glaring flaws in their methodology, and until they release a set in stone formula these are just made up numbers they're pulling out of their ***. I feel like the weight they give to "clutch" plays really IS them pulling a number out of thin air.
[/quote]


The checkdown thing is fair to me... You get credit for it but come on... You didnt earn the full 30 yards credit your RB and O-Line did the work there... Flacco, Ryan and the rest of the QB's will keep doing with they do to win... If that includes checkdowns... Do it... But no way should a QB get 40 yards credit for a screen or check down... That RB and blockers created that.

The opponent thing is not a big deal to me.... Us fans and experts will praise any QB that picks apart a great D... But on the same subject... A guy playing a sucky D and they are blowing the team out wont get extra credit because his throws are not important in a blowout... So in a way in a close game (Which most D's keep the game close) ... A QB has a chance to earn those extra points making big throws in that game.


But its going to be wholes in every system.. But i do feel like this is a improvement over the normal system.

[Corvus]

I watched the first 5 minutes or so of the special last night and it was so funny because you could tell Jaworski and Gruden hadn't really bought into it themselves by the things they were saying after ESPN decided to put them on it. Jaworski himself was adamant that the only stat that mattered was winning.

I understand where ESPN is trying to go here because there are other QB contributions (positive and negative) to the game that the current rating system doesn't address, but I simply don't like it. I think my major gripe is where their numbers wind up at. In the United States where the NFL is the most popular (duh), we're all influenced numerically by the American school system. We have it enforced and imprinted in our minds that anything less than 70 is a failure in most cases. The current NFL QB ratings, which are essentially grades, reflect this common mind set with fans. With ESPN's a QB with a 70 ratingg is actually pretty darn good. As a fan, when I see my QB (in this case Flacco) posting a 58 QB rating in this new system as opposed to the 90+ rating he posted under the old system, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see which system most fans are going to like better.

[scrock]

I dont like it because it people watching tape giving their opinion and giving plays a point value. It doesnt take into account the OC playcalling, some QB will be handicapped unless they just audible out of every crap play

[atljbo]

[quote name='ed.s52' timestamp='1312659208' post='738222']
I do like that about the system, but this is why the passer rating is much better in my eyes.

The Passer Rating just crunches the numbers as a passer, and the running yards ca be added to it. Similarly, we can look at other stats to see how clutch a QB is. The Passer rating doesnt claim to be the ultra-stat than the QBR claims, it just is a quick way to interpret their TD's, INT's, Completion %, Yards, and Completions.

Instead of looking at an ultra stat like the QBR, I'd rather look at for example Michael Vicks passer rating. Then I would look at his rushing stats, then how he did on third down. And finally on come from behind drives.

The QBR looks at that all for you and tries to make it into one stat, which obviously isnt the most reliable one.
[/quote]


As a guy that had Vick as his former QB... I like the new system... Vick rushed for 1000 yards for us... Dude made some very important runs for us that wasnt explained in his rushing yards... Thats the one thing this system does... It explain how important Clutch passes are.. It explains how important 3rd downs are... It explains how a QB produced under pressure... Something the regular system didnt...

Its not the end all be all... I just like how QB's get more credit for more of the important things... stats can be inflated... Its similar to what PFF does (not everything but similar)

[ed.s52]

[quote name='atljbo' timestamp='1312659823' post='738239']
As a guy that had Vick as his former QB... I like the new system... Vick rushed for 1000 yards for us... Dude made some very important runs for us that wasnt explained in his rushing yards... Thats the one thing this system does... It explain how important Clutch passes are.. It explains how important 3rd downs are... It explains how a QB produced under pressure... Something the regular system didnt...

Its not the end all be all... I just like how QB's get more credit for more of the important things... stats can be inflated... Its similar to what PFF does (not everything but similar)
[/quote]


yea, but like I said, I'd rather have a passer rating and look at other stats for the clutch aspect.

How about this scenario, a team wins all of their games by at least 7 (the QB doesnt have to be clutch, he put up enough points during the game to ensure a win) and their losses are enough to where the QB has no shot of a comeback (the amount of wins/losses is irrelevant).

In that scenario, the QB could have been the best QB in the league, but the QBR wouldnt have showed it because he was never put in clutch situations. Similarly, if he got most of his first downs on second down, the system would be inflated towards other QBs.

And back to my other point, the Passer Rating doesnt claim to encompass all of QB play, just the overall passing. Clutchness can be derrived from different stats, such as 3rd down performance and cluth performance. Also, sacks and fumbles can be based on just that, how many times he was sacked and fumbled and depending on the OLs proficiency and the avg. amount of time spent in the pocket you can make an estimation to just about how many sacks were on him.

It is the same with running yards. Looking at stats like YPC, Rushing TD's, 1st down runs, etc. can help you figure how much a QB's legs were a benefit to his team.


That is much more accurate and better than one big super-stat that has obvious defeiciency's and clearly lacks suitably weighting for clutch situations.

[atljbo]

[quote name='scrock' timestamp='1312659794' post='738237']
I dont like it because it people watching tape giving their opinion and giving plays a point value. It doesnt take into account the OC playcalling, some QB will be handicapped unless they just audible out of every crap play
[/quote]


No passer rating can give an account for that


They also explained it... Its not mainly their point of view... Its down and situation... They showed an example... 4th quarter... 3rd down and 7.... in the old system you can throw a pass and give you 4 yards and your and get credit for making an pass.... In ESPN system you dont get credit for that because you didnt do anything... If you convert that 3rd and 7.... You get points for keeping that drive alive in the 4th quarter... Now the game has to be close....

They said you get credit extra credit for down and situation... You dont get as much credit in the 1st quarter then you can earn in the 4th quarter (when it counts)


Their system is not perfect tho

[atljbo]

[quote name='ed.s52' timestamp='1312660538' post='738252']
yea, but like I said, I'd rather have a passer rating and look at other stats for the clutch aspect.

How about this scenario, a team wins all of their games by at least 7 (the QB doesnt have to be clutch, he put up enough points during the game to ensure a win) and their losses are enough to where the QB has no shot of a comeback (the amount of wins/losses is irrelevant).

In that scenario, the QB could have been the best QB in the league, but the QBR wouldnt have showed it because he was never put in clutch situations. Similarly, if he got most of his first downs on second down, the system would be inflated towards other QBs.

And back to my other point, the Passer Rating doesnt claim to encompass all of QB play, just the overall passing. Clutchness can be derrived from different stats, such as 3rd down performance and cluth performance. Also, sacks and fumbles can be based on just that, how many times he was sacked and fumbled and depending on the OLs proficiency and the avg. amount of time spent in the pocket you can make an estimation to just about how many sacks were on him.

It is the same with running yards. Looking at stats like YPC, Rushing TD's, 1st down runs, etc. can help you figure how much a QB's legs were a benefit to his team.


That is much more accurate and better than one big super-stat that has obvious defeiciency's and clearly lacks suitably weighting for clutch situations.
[/quote]


I get what you are saying.. I just like the fact that padded stats or inflated stats doesnt make a look better then they are... I like that you get credit for making important game winning plays and this system shows that.

Neither system is perfect tho

[hawkprey]

[quote name='atljbo' timestamp='1312660895' post='738273']
No passer rating can give an account for that


They also explained it... Its not mainly their point of view... Its down and situation... They showed an example... 4th quarter... 3rd down and 7.... in the old system you can throw a pass and give you 4 yards and your and get credit for making an pass.... In ESPN system you dont get credit for that because you didnt do anything... If you convert that 3rd and 7.... You get points for keeping that drive alive in the 4th quarter... Now the game has to be close....

They said you get credit extra credit for down and situation... You dont get as much credit in the 1st quarter then you can earn in the 4th quarter (when it counts)


Their system is not perfect tho
[/quote]

Just jumping in here...

QBR is basically a win calculator, but it assumes the quarterback is responsible for every play and every win, which he's not.

Passer rating makes more sense because it measures what a QB allows his offense to do passing-wise. Maybe 4 yards on a third-and-7 doesn't help your odds of winning, but it still shows that the quarterback is capable of moving his offense 4 yards. In passer rating, those 4 yards aren't a huge difference maker, but the passer rating formula correctly demonstrates the QB's ability to make some kind of a play. According to ESPN's model, the play is worthless because you can't win off of it. But according to NFL passer rating, the QB gets credit for a completion and 4 yards as he should because he displayed his accuracy as a quarterback. Even failed conversions require skill, but QBR will have none of it.

[atljbo]

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1312661874' post='738356']
Just jumping in here...

QBR is basically a win calculator, but it assumes the quarterback is responsible for every play and every win, which he's not.

Passer rating makes more sense because it measures what a QB allows his offense to do passing-wise. Maybe 4 yards on a third-and-7 doesn't help your odds of winning, but it still shows that the quarterback is capable of moving his offense 4 yards. In passer rating, those 4 yards aren't a huge difference maker, but the passer rating formula correctly demonstrates the QB's ability to make some kind of a play. According to ESPN's model, the play is worthless because you can't win off of it. But according to NFL passer rating, the QB gets credit for a completion and 4 yards as he should because he displayed his accuracy as a quarterback. Even failed conversions require skill, but QBR will have none of it.
[/quote]


I disagree... The QBR gives credit for what the QB does... He only gets credit for his throws... He gets small credit for screens or dumpoffs... He gets credit for big throws.. Moving the ball 4 yards and you need 7 yards in a important situation is pointless... thats padding stats as a completion and 4 yards on his stats... Thats pointless... Just like they shouldnt take away from a QB trying a hail marry at the end of the half... He is trying to make a play.. if the int doest get returned for a TD.. It made no impact.

What shows accuracy is threading the needle on an important down (and example they showed on the show) .


Neither is flawless...I just like giving credit for some of the hidden things that wins game that the passer rating dont give credit for.

[Pitts200]

Can I ask, why does there even have to be a rating scale for a QB??? Why is so much time being wasted to put a Madden-like number on only QBs.

Every other offensive positions worth is based mostly straight off stats. Rbs can be judged by a myriad of different stats depending on what aspect you're trying to compare. They dont add together total yards, ypc, fumbles, etc to come up with a Rb rating. The same goes for Wrs.

So I ask, in all honesty, why do we feel the need to tie an arbitrary number to QBs when we don't do that for any other position?

Can we not tell if a QB is having a good year if through 8 games he has 2000 yards 19tds and 5ints?

[hawkprey]

[quote name='atljbo' timestamp='1312664648' post='738499']
I disagree... The QBR gives credit for what the QB does... He only gets credit for his throws... He gets small credit for screens or dumpoffs... He gets credit for big throws.. Moving the ball 4 yards and you need 7 yards in a important situation is pointless... thats padding stats as a completion and 4 yards on his stats... Thats pointless... Just like they shouldnt take away from a QB trying a hail marry at the end of the half... He is trying to make a play.. if the int doest get returned for a TD.. It made no impact.

What shows accuracy is threading the needle on an important down (and example they showed on the show) .


Neither is flawless...I just like giving credit for some of the hidden things that wins game that the passer rating dont give credit for.
[/quote]

A short throw with a lot of YAC is usually the result of the QB throwing a well-timed ball or hitting the player right in stride, so why shouldn't he get credit for that?

And why should a hail mary that turns into an INT not count if a hail mary that turns into a TD does?

As for the 3rd down situation... Regardless of whether a pass is converted into a 1st down, making any sort of yardage or completion is still indicative of QB performance - and is that not what QBR ideal, but it still shows the QB is capable of making a 16 yard pass. Why should that play not count in the quarterback's favor?

Again, some plays may not affect the outcome of the game, but that doesn't mean they don't demonstrate a quarterback's abilities.

[atljbo]

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1312667191' post='738627']
A short throw with a lot of YAC is usually the result of the QB throwing a well-timed ball or hitting the player right in stride, so why shouldn't he get credit for that?

And why should a hail mary that turns into an INT not count if a hail mary that turns into a TD does?

As for the 3rd down situation... Regardless of whether a pass is converted into a 1st down, making any sort of yardage or completion is still indicative of QB performance - and is that not what QBR ideal, but it still shows the QB is capable of making a 16 yard pass. Why should that play not count in the quarterback's favor?

Again, some plays may not affect the outcome of the game, but that doesn't mean they don't demonstrate a quarterback's abilities.
[/quote]


I get what you are saying... QB's get credit for those throws... They just more credit for those 3rd down throws (in big moments) and for throwing the ball down the field instead of your WR turning a 5 yard slant into a TD by making a couple of guys miss... You get points for it but you get more credit for those other things.

The Hail marry play is low risk high reward... If you make that thorw and your WR catch it... Thats Huge but normally when a guy int it... The guy normally gets tackled ... Thats the end... Now if the guy turns it into a pick 6... That hurts a QB big time but that normally doesnt happen.

[da#1ravensfan]

This is not a good way to measure quarterback play because the say Matt Ryan is one of the top three and four quarterbacks in the league ahead of rivers, roethlisberger and rodgers.

[BMOREHAWAII]

Lets face it, Flacco probably wont win any awards or ever be a pro bowler even but hey, atleast we dont have Sanchez..

[ed.s52]

[quote name='BMOREHAWAII' timestamp='1312678224' post='739049']
Lets face it, Flacco probably wont win any awards or ever be a pro bowler even but hey, atleast we dont have Sanchez..
[/quote]

Well he might not as long as ESPN is doing the rankings.

[Blex64]

[quote name='BMOREHAWAII' timestamp='1312678224' post='739049']
Lets face it, Flacco probably wont win any awards or ever be a pro bowler even but hey, atleast we dont have Sanchez..
[/quote]

I don't know why you'd say that. The Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees era is coming to a close.

The Flacco/Ryan/Freeman/Bradford/Luck era is opening.

[BMOREHAWAII]

[quote name='ed.s52' timestamp='1312681966' post='739148']
Well he might not as long as ESPN is doing the rankings.
[/quote]
Lol

[quote name='Blex64' timestamp='1312681966' post='739148']
I don't know why you'd say that. The Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees era is coming to a close.

The [b]Sanchez[/b] era is opening.
[/quote]
This is what you really meant...

[BMOREHAWAII]

But no seriously, Rivers is 29,Brees 32, Brady is 33. They have alot of life left. Even if they were gone guys like Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford , Matt Stafford (considering he stays healthy), Josh Freeman have done just as good if not better than Flacco in the same amount of time or less. Losing Mase AND Heap doesn't help his stats im betting. He's an average QB at best but im hoping to see change with youth at our core..

[berad]

The list is hilarious. Chad Pennington the 3rd best QB in the NFL in 2008? Haha uhhh

[Blex64]

[quote name='BMOREHAWAII' timestamp='1312744411' post='739887']
But no seriously, Rivers is 29,Brees 32, Brady is 33. They have alot of life left. Even if they were gone guys like Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford , Matt Stafford (considering he stays healthy), Josh Freeman have done just as good if not better than Flacco in the same amount of time or less. Losing Mase AND Heap doesn't help his stats im betting. He's an average QB at best but im hoping to see change with youth at our core..
[/quote]

Brady is 34, only a year younger then Peyton. Rivers is the only young-ish one of the group.

Your comments on flacco are fairly stupid. Freeman did what he did in the NFC south. And I'm expecting him to have a breakout year.

[Ed_Reed20]

[quote name='BMOREHAWAII' timestamp='1312744411' post='739887']
But no seriously, Rivers is 29,Brees 32, Brady is 33. They have alot of life left. Even if they were gone guys like Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford , [b]Matt Stafford (considering he stays healthy)[/b], Josh Freeman [b]have done just as good if not better than Flacco in the same amount of time or less[/b]. Losing Mase AND Heap doesn't help his stats im betting. He's an average QB at best but im hoping to see change with youth at our core..
[/quote]

I could understand someone making the case for Ryan, Freeman, Bradford, but you can't be serious regarding Stafford. What has he done that's even comparable or better than Joe?

[PeRK82]

They had a special on it last night, And IMO it has a lot to do with Opinions, it really does. Josh Freeman is ranked like 6th and lower than Big Ben. Yea ok, im no Roth. fan but i know who is a better QB and it aint Freeman.