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Yatagarasu

Torrey Smith: The Next Greg Jennings + Jeremy Maclin

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[b]The Thread here is based on previous draft results, college statistics, and pure speculation of the future. Also, the system and grading used here are for fantasy football, not grading draft prospects. In addition, I give all the credit for the statistics to R.C. Fischer, the writer of all these statistics and articles. We all know that draft picks should be given at least three years of work to be considered booms or busts. Finally with all that through, I hope you enjoy what this thread is all about.[/b]

Now on to the point, so I stumbled upon this fantasy football metric site and started reading some of the articles. Then one key article caught my eyes and opened up a whole new perspective on Torrey Smith, our 2nd round pick. There's a lot of reading to do to understand why Torrey Smith might be the next best wide receiver. So the links below will help us understand what measures are being used.

First of all, the site's system of labeling WR prospects is not perfect because the system did fail to find gems like Wes Welker and Anquan Boldin. However, for the most part, it did help find out why other WRs that were picked later in the draft (ex: Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin) do better than some overrated high draft picked WRs (ex: DHB, Troy Williamson).

[b]KEY POINTS[/b]

I will give important links and its quick summaries before giving the main link about Torrey Smith.
[b]
1) Small vs. Big[/b]
Basically not all WRs are the same especially because of physical built. Therefore small receivers who can accelerate quickly will do different roles of big receivers who can be big red zone targets. If you know what I mean, the list of players below should help what type of receivers they are.

Big Receivers Examples(6'2" at any weight or 6'+ with 205+ lbs):
Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson
[u]
[url="http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/Draft_2011_WR%20Stat%20Ranking_3-1-11_2.0.htm"]Link about Big WRs[/url]
[/u]
Small Receivers Examples(Under 6'2" & under 205 lbs or under 6' at any weight):
Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Steve Smith (both), DeSean Jackson
[u]
[url="http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/Draft_2011_Sm_WR_4-11-11_1.0.htm"]Link about Small WRs[/url][/u]

[b]2) Recent history on drafting WRs[/b]

Basically every year, teams always try to find that big play-making WRs like Calvin Johnson that can be force against defenses. However, according to recent drafts, teams will often find more bust than boom with the WRs that are picked early.

Here's an interesting stat. From the past decade, 19 wide receivers were selected within the top 15 draft picks and out of those 19, only three (Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson) are considered sure-fired picks with the rest being busts or still to be decided.

The funny thing is that the best wide receivers that come out of each draft is not usually the first WR off the board. They're usually the 4th, 5th, maybe 27th WRs picked. Therefore, not getting that expensive and highly advertised WR early in the draft may be the best thing to do.

[u][url="http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/Draft_2011_WR_Draft%20history_3-17-11_1.0.htm"]Link on the History of Past WR Draftees[/url]
[/u]
[b]3) Analysis of Torrey Smith[/b]

Torrey Smith comes be an enigma on what type of Wide Receiver he should be because of his physical characteristics. At the weight of 204 lbs, he is just off one pound on being a big receiver, yet he plays fluidly as a small receiver. Some basically calling him a tweener between a big receiver and a small receiver. However, Torrey Smith's use as both highly differs. Torrey Smith is considered average as a big receiver, however as a small receiver, it is a different story.

The two receivers that compared Torrey Smith are [b]Greg Jennings[/b] and [b]Jeremy Maclin[/b] and he might have the best of both with the playmaking ability of Greg Jennings and physical characteristics of Jeremy Maclin.

As we all know that Torrey Smith ran a 4.43 40 yard dash. It doesn't seem impressive for a vertical threat, however the real time is the 10 yard dash, which measures explosiveness. Torrey Smith ran a 1.52 10 yard dash, which is the fastest out of all the WRs in the combine. Along with this explosive 10 yard dash, the 41 in vertical leap and 19 bench press show that Torrey Smith is not only fast, but also strong and quick.

Here are the Overall score of Torrey Smith:
1.160 as a small receiver (This score is considered very high)
0.741 as a big receiver (This score is considered around average)

As we can see if Torrey Smith is used correctly as a small receiver, he could turn out to be one of the best small receivers in the big. If not, his true potential could be wasted. Therefore, he needs to go to the right system and be used as a vertical guy or a guy who can get the ball quick and run in space.

[u][url="http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/04/07/combine-workout-leaders-10-yard-time-2"]List of Fastest 10 Yard Dashes of 2011 Combine[/url][/u]
[u]
[url="http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/Draft_2011_T_Smith_4-19-11_1.0.htm"]Link to Statistical Analysis of WR Torrey Smith[/url][/u]
[b]
4) Torrey Smith vs. Other Receivers[/b]
Just looking at the scores, I assume that comparing Big and Small WRs isn't the best of data due to the fact that they offer different roles for the Offense.

Torrey's score compared to his comparisons:
1.197 - Jeremy Maclin
1.160 - Torrey Smith (Small)
1.058 - Greg Jennings

Torrey's score vs. the other 2011 WR draftees:
1.160 - Torrey Smith (Small)
0.981 - Leonard Hankerson (Big)
0.934 - Julio Jones (Big)
0.898 - Greg Little (Big)
0.841 - Terrence Toliver (Big)
0.811 - Jonathan Baldwin (Big)
0.741 - Torrey Smith (Big)
0.714 - A.J. Green (Big)

(Scores for small receivers are not out yet)
(Note: not all scores are given, however Torrey Smith's score as a small receiver is currently number 1 out of all small receivers in the draft, including Randall Cobbs and Titus Young)

Scores of other top drafted WRs in previous years:
1.500 - Calvin Johnson (Big)
1.483 - Hakeem Nicks (Big)
1.403 - Randy Moss (Big)
1.333 - Larry Fitzgerald (Big)
1.276 - Percy Harvin (Small)
1.099 - Reggie Wayne (Small)
1.064 - Mike Wallace (Small)
0.972 - Dez Bryant (Big)
0.971 - Andre Johnson (Big)
[u]
[url="http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/Draft_2011_Bald_TTolv_Little_4-11-11_1.0.htm"]Current Scores of 2011 WR Draftees[/url][/u]

History seems to repeat itself time and time again because the first WR picked is usually not the best WR. This year the hype was all on Julio Jones and A.J. Green as they were considered to great draft picks given on their spots (Top 10). We have to wait three years to see who will become the best WR out of this year's class. From looking at these scores, I can definitely say that Torrey Smith could be not only a steal in this draft, but also has the tools and recent history to become the best wide receiver coming out of the 2011.
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that break down actually made alot of sense hopefully it pans out to mean Smith will be successful.
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I have a hard time believing that Torrey will end up being better than both A.J. and Julio, but interesting post nonetheless.
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I still say Tandon Doss will wind up being the better receiver of the two, but it's an interesting analysis nonetheless.
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well at the end of the day being one pound above or below etc etc doesn't mean a whole lot...I'm more interested in how much his heart weighs. Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard.
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[quote name='T3hRaven' timestamp='1304536363' post='681518']
I still say Tandon Doss will wind up being the better receiver of the two, but it's an interesting analysis nonetheless.
[/quote]

[quote name='RL52TheGreatest' timestamp='1304535567' post='681499']
I have a hard time believing that Torrey will end up being better than both A.J. and Julio, but interesting post nonetheless.
[/quote]

I agree with both accounts. Doss strikes me as the better receiver in the long run, even though Smith will most likely see more snaps this year, Doss will turn into a our future one or two with those amazing hands. And with Green and Jones in this years draft saying Smith might be the best receiver in this year's draft class is baffling. I didn't even consider him the [i]third[/i] best receiver in this class.

You can speculate upon previous draft trends and college statistics all you want. But trends aren't concrete and can be broken, and college statistics does not always mean they'll be just as productive as in the pros.

However, regardless of all that and of my own personal feelings of Smith, why don't we wait until he plays a game or two, or even a snap, in the NFL before people proclaim him to be the next anybody?
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Beyond his potential on the playing field, Torrey Smith also appears to be a high-character individual in the same vein as Greg Jennings. While the Ravens drafted Smith to be a playmaker, at the very least, the team's also gained a good person who's sure to do some positive things for the community during his down time.
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What is this, I don't even...

It's nice to know that he has all the potential in the world but he'll have to show it on the field with his play, not a calculator. I love statistics but, still, can't claim a prospect will be great when they haven't even stepped on an NFL field.
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All those stats don't really matter in the end it will come down to his ability to play football on the field, how he adjusts to the Pro game, etc.


interesting post, you obviously put a lot of work into it
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As compelling an argument as you make, there are numerous factors that will determine Torrey's success in the NFL that neither trends nor workout numbers can take into account.

That he has two accomplished vets to learn from and is reportedly a hard worker makes me optimistic he'll find success in the pros though but I still have a feeling Doss will be the more productive WR right now though.
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Interesting..

I just wanna comment on the Doss and Smith debate
It oddly reminds me of Dickson and Pitta last year..With most of us (including myself) thinking Pitta had better hands would probably develop better..however that is a whole different debate and I love both..But I do think Smith will be good but the one thing from the article and from what we have all talked about is we need to use him right as in the article a "small" WR and what we have seen in College as a screen guy and deep threat, while I would want to see more from him Im sure it will happen in time.

I think he will be very good and I expect his first three years to be around:
rookie year: 25-30 catches, 400-500yds, 4tds
sophomore year: 45-50 catches, 650-750 yds, 6tds (assuming Mason leaves)
pivotal year: 55-60, just under 1000 yds, 6-8tds

atleast these are my expectations, I dont see him as a 100 rec. or 1200+ yd kinda guy but a really good no.2.
Whats most important from him in our offense is some big play potential..I would love to see him around that 17+ ypc in his first couple of years before he begins to work the whole route tree.
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[quote name='Token' timestamp='1304541367' post='681595']
Wow, I had no idea he had a 1.52 10 yard split.
[/quote]
Ya thats impressive, a burst off the line is important for getting separation as well as clean breaks. Its damn tough to work on getting acceleration like that, but you can work on getting smooth out of your cuts.
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I wonder if Joe "hand-picking" Doss will bias him in any way in terms of who he gets the ball to between Smith and Doss haha... With Q, Mason, Smith, and Doss as our most likely Top 4, I think we're in excellent shape. Now it's up Cam to not screw this up... again.
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[quote name='FerrariFan87' timestamp='1304543368' post='681629']
I wonder if Joe "hand-picking" Doss will bias him in any way in terms of who he gets the ball to between Smith and Doss haha... With Q, Mason, Smith, and Doss as our most likely Top 4, I think we're in excellent shape.[b] Now it's up Cam to not screw this up... again.[/b]
[/quote]

And that is a very scary thought.

At least it couldn't get much worse than last year (barring multiple key injuries). We're prepared this time. More youth and speed at receiver, more depth at tackle. It truly is in Cam's hands.

Very in depth stuff, but nothing's set in stone. Kindle could have had a highly successful career, now it's unknown whether he'll even see the field due to a freak accident.
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[quote name='XxSizzleXx' timestamp='1304543930' post='681644']
Dang, so he's no Percy Harvin?
[/quote]

Would much rather have Smith be a mix of Maclin/Jennings than a Harvin any day of the week.... sure you have explosiveness from Harvin, but Maclin and Jennings both present speed and a well rounded game.
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[quote name='AwakenTheDemon' timestamp='1304537146' post='681528']
I agree with both accounts. Doss strikes me as the better receiver in the long run, even though Smith will most likely see more snaps this year, Doss will turn into a our future one or two with those amazing hands. And with Green and Jones in this years draft saying Smith might be the best receiver in this year's draft class is baffling. I didn't even consider him the [i]third[/i] best receiver in this class.

You can speculate upon previous draft trends and college statistics all you want. But trends aren't concrete and can be broken, and college statistics does not always mean they'll be just as productive as in the pros.

[b]However, regardless of all that and of my own personal feelings of Smith, why don't we wait until he plays a game or two, or even a snap, in the NFL before people proclaim him to be the next anybody?[/b]
[/quote]

Are you doing the same thing with statements about AJ Green, Julio Jones, and saying Doss will be the better WR with his amazing hands?

I'm not getting on you, but it seems your dislike of either Torrey Smith or the fact that he was selected over a pass rusher, is causing you to have a negative outlook on anything Torrey Smith related.

Not once did i hear the OP or any other poster in this thread say that Smith will be the next elite, great, good, decent, or above average any thing. Every single player drafted will have to prove what they can do in the NFL.

You say that college stats and production don't matter, then you support that statement by saying it's baffling to think Smith will be better then Jones or Green, and he's not even the 3rd best WR out of this draft to you. Sounds like a contradiction to me.

Look at a guy like Roddy White, not many people saw him as the best WR in that draft on May 4 2005, the same day we sit here. Yet look how things have played out. The 2 big names at WR in that draft were Braylon Edwards, and Mike Williams, would you say Roddy White being better then them is baffling or even Vincent Jackson who was selected at 61 in the second round?

Torrey Smith has all the potential in the world to be just as good if not better then the 4 WRs selected ahead of him. However we won't know anything until it all plays out.
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[quote name='Ravensfan23' timestamp='1304544891' post='681657']
Are you doing the same thing with statements about AJ Green, Julio Jones, and saying Doss will be the better WR with his amazing hands?

I'm not getting on you, but it seems your dislike of either Torrey Smith or the fact that he was selected over a pass rusher, is causing you to have a negative outlook on anything Torrey Smith related.
[b]
.Not once did i hear the OP or any other poster in this thread say that Smith will be the next elite, great, good, decent, or above average any thing. Every single player drafted will have to prove what they can do in the NFL [/b]

[b]You say that college stats and production don't matter, then you support that statement by saying it's baffling to think Smith will be better then Jones or Green, and he's not even the 3rd best WR out of this draft to you. Sounds like a contradiction to me.[/b]

Look at a guy like Roddy White, not many people saw him as the best WR in that draft on May 4 2005, the same day we sit here. Yet look how things have played out. The 2 big names at WR in that draft were Braylon Edwards, and Mike Williams, would you say Roddy White being better then them is baffling or even Vincent Jackson who was selected at 61 in the second round?

Torrey Smith has all the potential in the world to be just as good if not better then the 4 WRs selected ahead of him. However we won't know anything until it all plays out.
[/quote]

Did you read the entire thread title? No? Here, I'll get it for you:
"Torrey Smith: The Next Greg Jennings + Jeremy Maclin [u]He might be the best WR out of this draft[/u]"

Underlined the important part for you.

No one in here said Smith would "be the next great receiver". However, the OP clearly, in the title, said he "might be the best WR out of this draft". So, and I'm not the only one, who might just so happen to disagree with that when you're sharing a class with A.J. Green and Julio Jones. My dislike of the pick has absolutely nothing to do with saying perhaps we should wait until he actually [i]plays[/i] in the NFL, and yes, I would say the same thing about any player out of this or any other draft. However, you'd be more justified in saying Green or Jones might be "the best WR out of this draft" because their body of work and workouts (as this is all the OP is going on about) is arguably better than Smith's.

When you comparing rookie players of the SAME position, then you could use college statistics and bodies of work. However, in this situation, where you're claiming a receiver will be the "best WR in this draft" and comparing him to the likes of Greg Jennings based purely on draft position, work out numbers, and, to a lesser degree, college output, the college output isn't as strong. Why? Because you're comparing a [b]college[/b] career to a [b]professional[/b] career, they're of two completely different levels. And for the record, I never once said college numbers do not matter. What I said was:

[quote]. . .college statistics does not always mean they'll be just as productive as in the pros. [/quote]

Next time you want to say you're not getting on someone, don't quote them, then specifically say "are you" in the post. Otherwise you are getting on and questioning someone.
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[quote name='berad' timestamp='1304537544' post='681537']
What is this, I don't even...

It's nice to know that he has all the potential in the world but he'll have to show it on the field with his play, not a calculator. I love statistics but, still, can't claim a prospect will be great when they haven't even stepped on an NFL field.
[/quote]

Not once did the OP say and nowhere in the entire piece did it say that Torrey Smith [b]Will Be Great[/b].

imo it was simply something to give the fans a bit of insight and why Torrey Smith could be a great NFL WR.

As much as we ignore it, history almost often tells the truth. And the true of the matter is most WRs that are drafted in rounds other then the 1st, turn out to be really good/great more often then the ones taken in the first round.

Will that be Torrey Smith? Who knows, but I'll sure be watching to find out.
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[quote name='T-ray' timestamp='1304544487' post='681651']
Would much rather have Smith be a mix of Maclin/Jennings than a Harvin any day of the week.... sure you have explosiveness from Harvin, but Maclin and Jennings both present speed and a well rounded game.
[/quote]

Not to get off-topic but there's nothing Maclin or Jennings can do that Harvin can't in my opinion. The plays he made last season, especially against the Jets, really opened my eyes to how good a WR he's become in the pros
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[quote name='AwakenTheDemon' timestamp='1304545019' post='681658']
Did you read the entire thread title? No? Here, I'll get it for you:
"Torrey Smith: The Next Greg Jennings + Jeremy Maclin [u]He [b]might[/b] be the best WR out of this draft[/u]"

Underlined the important part for you.

No one in here said Smith would "be the next great receiver". However, the OP clearly, in the title, said he "might be the best WR out of this draft". So, and I'm not the only one, who might just so happen to disagree with that when you're sharing a class with A.J. Green and Julio Jones. My dislike of the pick has absolutely nothing to do with saying perhaps we should wait until he actually [i]plays[/i] in the NFL, and yes, I would say the same thing about any player out of this or any other draft. However, you'd be more justified in saying Green or Jones might be "the best WR out of this draft" because their body of work and workouts (as this is all the OP is going on about) is arguably better than Smith's.

Next time you want to say you're not getting on someone, don't quote them, then specifically say "are you" in the post. Otherwise you are getting on and questioning someone.
[/quote]

The last time i check the word MIGHT suggested that something could be, or has the potential to be. It doesn't state that it will definitely be. The Ravens "Might" win the Super Bowl this year...Doesn't sound much like an guarantee nor doesn't it sound too confident.

Ok again, as i said before, i wasn't attacking you or your opinion one bit. However for you to attack the comments of someone(not the person) about saying that Torrey Smith "Might" be great, by saying. Lets see him play first. Then you turn around and say, Doss will be better in your opinion or saying he could be better then Green or Jones seems contradicting to me. If that offended you, then you have my apologies.

The last time I checked you could attack a statement without attacking a person. Imo if i were getting on you as the poster of those statements I would have attack you creditability. I simply asked you, by making the comments about Green, Jones and Doss, weren't you pretty much doing the same thing as the OP.

So again if you felt like I was attacking you or getting on you, you have my apologies, that wasn't my intent.
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[quote name='Bltravens' timestamp='1304542177' post='681609']
Ya thats impressive, a burst off the line is important for getting separation as well as clean breaks. Its damn tough to work on getting acceleration like that, but you can work on getting smooth out of your cuts.
[/quote]

Yea, smoothing out his cuts is something that Smith will definitely have to work on. However only being a 4th year WR, his potential for growth is definitely there. Unlike if he was more of a finished product.

He definitely has a lot of work ahead of him, but if he can become a really good route running, with the type of speed and quickness he has, he could be a really special WR.
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[quote name='Ed_Reed20' timestamp='1304545810' post='681670']
Not to get off-topic but there's nothing Maclin or Jennings can do that Harvin can't in my opinion. The plays he made last season, especially against the Jets, really opened my eyes to how good a WR he's become in the pros
[/quote]

Yea Percy is really starting to come into his own. I like his physicality and I agree he could do just as much as Jennings or Maclin. I actually think he would thrive in either the Packers or Eagles systems.
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[quote name='Ravensfan23' timestamp='1304545939' post='681671']
The last time i check the word MIGHT suggested that something could be, or has the potential to be. It doesn't state that it will definitely be. The Ravens "Might" win the Super Bowl this year...Doesn't sound much like an guarantee nor doesn't it sound too confident.

Ok again, as i said before, i wasn't attacking you or your opinion one bit. However for you to attack the comments of someone(not the person) about saying that Torrey Smith "Might" be great, by saying. [b]Lets see him play first. Then you turn around and say, Doss will be better in your opinion or saying he could be better then Green or Jones seems contradicting to me.[/b] If that offended you, then you have my apologies.

The last time I checked you could attack a statement without attacking a person. Imo if i were getting on you as the poster of those statements I would have attack you creditability. I simply asked you, by making the comments about Green, Jones and Doss, weren't you pretty much doing the same thing as the OP.

So again if you felt like I was attacking you or getting on you, you have my apologies, that wasn't my intent.
[/quote]

So apparently the OP is allowed to voice his opinion that Smith might be the next Greg Jennings, but I'm not allowed to voice my opinion that I feel as if Doss will turn into the better receiver of the two? Talk about contradicting.

Okay, I'm sorry. I wasn't aware that I had to explicitly state every time that we need to wait until this guys, or any rookies, play a game in the NFL Let me rephrase, I feel as if Doss [u]might[/u] turn out to be the better of the two receivers in the long run. I'll clarify. Doss' skilset seems more attuned to a reliable number one or two receiver than Smith's. However, we will not get a proper gauge of that because, most likely, Smith will see significantly more playtime than Doss this season.
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Interesting, but the fact that these metrics graded AJ Green worst is a red flag. Now I know Green isn't perfect, but whenever I watch him play I am blown away by his ability. Not only does he possess great hands, ideal size and speed, but he tracks the deep ball incredibly well. He may bust, but that will be due to going to Cinci and having Andy Dalton throwing to him.
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[quote name='AwakenTheDemon' timestamp='1304546328' post='681679']
So apparently the OP is allowed to say Smith might be the next Greg Jennings, but I'm not allowed to say that I feel as if Doss will turn into the better receiver of the two? Talk about contradicting.
[/quote]

You can say whatever you feel or choose to. It's a message broad. All I pointed out was that calling the potential for Smith to maybe be better then Jones or Green baffling, and saying Doss will be the better WR, then turning around and saying Torrey Smith needs to prove what he can do on the field before anyone can make a claim for him was contradicting imo.

If you would have made you statements first and the OP turned around and sayed.....Doss hasn't even proven anything on the field to make anyone think he'll be better the Smith. Then he followed that up with the statement of Smith has the potential to be better then Jones and Green, then i would have said that seems contradicting statement.

If you feel Doss will be better cool. If you feel there is no way Smith will be as good as Jones and Green, that cool too. I just simple commented on a statement you made, nothing more nothing less.

It doesn't make what you said wrong or what i say right.
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[quote name='Ravensfan23' timestamp='1304545269' post='681665']
Not once did the OP say and nowhere in the entire piece did it say that Torrey Smith [b]Will Be Great[/b].

imo it was simply something to give the fans a bit of insight and why Torrey Smith could be a great NFL WR.

As much as we ignore it, history almost often tells the truth. And the true of the matter is most WRs that are drafted in rounds other then the 1st, turn out to be really good/great more often then the ones taken in the first round.

Will that be Torrey Smith? Who knows, but I'll sure be watching to find out.
[/quote]

"Torrey Smith: The Next Greg Jennings + Jeremy Maclin".

You're making my comment into more than it was. Just saying that Smith could have all the measurables, talent, and character to make Jerry Rice blush but he isn't anything until he capitalizes on it.
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1304546552' post='681684']
Interesting, but the fact that these metrics graded AJ Green worst is a red flag. Now I know Green isn't perfect, but whenever I watch him play I am blown away by his ability. Not only does he possess great hands, ideal size and speed, but he tracks the deep ball incredibly well. He may bust, but that will be due to going to Cinci and having Andy Dalton throwing to him.
[/quote]

I don't think he'll bust in Cincinnati regardless. While it's true most of his output will be based upon the performance of whoever is throwing the ball, Green has the ability to [i]still[/i] make big plays even if he has mediocre quarterback play supporting him.
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[quote name='gabefergy' timestamp='1304546552' post='681684']
Interesting, but the fact that these metrics graded AJ Green worst is a red flag. Now I know Green isn't perfect, but whenever I watch him play I am blown away by his ability. Not only does he possess great hands, ideal size and speed, but he tracks the deep ball incredibly well. He may bust, but that will be due to going to Cinci and having Andy Dalton throwing to him.
[/quote]

Yea good point, but Calvin Johnson didn't bust with pretty much nobody throwing him the ball. So if Green turns out to be a bust, it'll be on him, not who's throwing him the ball.
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