2009 Joe Flacco Passing Analysis

[mgridda]

I had no where else to post this, since the 2010 Games Topic is about, well, 2010. But I wanted to take a look back into the 2009 NFL Season. Soon enough I will do a similar project with the 2010 NFL Season.

I wish the Ravens would just give me an internship already, though >_> (to their credit I've never applied because I imagine it's more about "who you know.")

All jokes aside, I wish I had coach's film to make this analysis with, but I worked with only what I had.

This will analyze - statistically - who Flacco threw to and where he threw the ball over the 2009 season. It will attempt to analyze differences in these numbers throughout the early and late parts of the season and also the competition.

Targets:
1. Derrick Mason | 128 Targets | 57% Catch Rate (55 1stD)
2. Ray Rice | 95 Targets | 82% Catch Rate (28 1stD)
3. Todd Heap | 72 Targets | 74% Catch Rate (33 1stD)
4. Mark Clayton | 70 Targets | 48% Catch Rate (24 1stD)
5. Kelley Washington | 45 Targets | 76% Catch Rate (27 1st D)
6. Le'Ron McClain | 26 Targets | 81% Catch Rate (6 FD)
7. Willis McGahee | 20 Targets | 75% Catch Rate (5 FD)
8. Demetrius Williams | 15 Targets | 53% Catch Rate (6 1stD)
9. LJ Smith | 3 Targets | 2 Catches (2 1stDowns)
10. Matt Lawrence | 1 Target | 1 Catch
11. Justin Harper | 1 Target | 0 Catches



Distance of Completion

Behind the LOS:

* 97 Attemps behind the LOS
* 79.4% of them Completions (77)
* They accounted for 1 Touchdown
* 0 Ints
* 547 Yards (YPA of 5.64)

1-10

* 194 Attempts thrown 1-10 yards out
* 69.1% of them Completions (134)
* They accounted for 6 Touchdowns
* 4 Interceptions
* 1,389 yards (7.16 YPA)


11-20:

* 87 Attempts thrown 11-20 yards out
* 52.9% of them completions (46)
* They accounted for 3 Touchdowns
* 2 Interceptions
* 730 yards (8.4 YPA)

21-30

* 23 Attempts thrown 21-30 yards out
* 30.4% of them completions
* They accounted for 2 Touchdowns
* 2 Interceptions
* 177 yards (7.7 YPA)


31-40

* 12 Attempts thrown 31-40 yards out
* 25% of them completions
* They accounted for 2 Touchdowns
* 1 Interception
* 97 yards (8.08 YPA)


40+ yards

* 13 Attempts thrown >41 yards
* 23.1% of them completions
* They accounted for 1 Touchdown
* 2 Interceptions
* 171 yards (13.15 YPA)


This is honestly the meat of the analysis. Most of the accusations thrown at Joe Flacco these days are that his coaches don't trust him enough to throw the ball down the field. But these raw numbers (although nice) are large and indicate his success in where he throws the ball. In order to pinpoint whether that claim thrown at Flacco (dumps the ball off, doesn't take chances downfield) holds merit or not is by analyzing how many chances he takes. So, a more specific analysis is needed than looking at how successful he is with the throws (he throws the ball and the other half is catching, if the other half isn't there it won't matter how many chances he'll take - he'll be unsuccessful) if they're not compared to how much Flacco throws in general - as they would be taken out of context. So, a good way to take into context is by applying them as percentages.

In 2009, Flacco threw:

* 19.4% of his throws behind the LOS
* 38.8% of his throws 1-10 yards out from the LOS
* 17.4% of his throws 11-20 yards out from the LOS
* 4.6% of his throws 21-30 yards out from the LOS
* 2.6% of his throws 31-40 yards out from the LOS
* 2.6% of his throws 40+ yards out from the LOS

Considering that the world is relative, even these percentages can reveal a lot more to us about the truth of those allegations. So let's compare them to four NFL Quarterbacks. The NFL measuring stick for Quarterbacking in 2009 regular season is Peyton Manning. So, let's see Peyton's percentages

PEYTON MANNING DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION

* 12.9% of his throws behind the LOS
* 44.6% of his throws 1-10 yards out from the LOS
* 20.1% of his throws 11-20 yards out from the LOS
* 5.6% of his throws 21-30 yards out from the LOS
* 4.2% of his throws 31-40 yards out from the LOS
* 0.3% of his throws 40+ yards out from the LOS

So, looking at the top example of a Quarterback in 2009 Peyton Manning has about 7% less throws behind the LOS, 6% more between 1-10 yards, 2.5% more throws between 11-20, 1% more throws between 21-30, 1.5% more throws between 31-40 and about 2% less throws 40+ yards out. Well, the similarities speak for themselves. Except for more throws behind the LOS, it seems as if Manning and Flacco have similar distribution. So, let's take a look at another 2009 Quarterback. Let's take a look at someone called Drew Brees:



DREW BREES DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION 2009

* 14.7% of his throws behind the LOS
* 37.5% of his throws 1-10 yards out from the LOS
* 21.9% of his throws 11-20 yards out from the LOS
* 5.8% of his throws 21-30 yards out from the LOS
* 1.7% of his throws 31-40 yards out from the LOS
* 1.7% of his throws 40+ yards out from the LOS

Now let's compare these similar numbers to someone who might offer a little perspective in to how extreme these numbers can get. Let's take a look at Brett Favre.
BRETT FAVRE DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION 2009
18.1% of his throws behind the LOS
39.1% of his throws 1-10 yards out from the LOS
16.1% of his throws 11-20 yards out from the LOS
4.1% of his throws 21-30 yards out from the LOS
2.4% of his throws 31-40 yards out from the LOS
1.3% of his throws 40+ yards out from the LOS

Now, in this day and age the biggest arm in football is arguably Phillip Rivers (w/ an average of 8.8 per attempt). So, to add a little perspective and in the honor of knowledge, let's take a look at Philly Rivers:

PHILLIP RIVERS DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION 2009
14.6% of his throws behind the LOS
35.3% of his throws 1-10 yards out from the LOS
21.3% of his throws 11-20 yards out from the LOS
5.7% of his throws 21-30 yards out from the LOS
2.6% of his throws 31-40 yards out from the LOS
3.2% of his throws 40+ yards out from the LOS


Ah, so now we can see that when it comes to TAKING SHOTS downfield Joe Flacco has more in common with Phillip Rivers than anyone else. I did the numbers with a slew of other QBs and Joe Flacco is the closest to Rivers. Joe did pass a lot of passes behind the LOS, but can you blame him he's got the best receiving RB in the NFL in Ray Rice. Put some giants who can spread the field with this kid and watch out, National Football League.

First Half/Second Half
Games 1-8 | 8 Games Played | 183 Comp. | 282 Attempts | 64.9 % | 2044 Yards | 7.2avg | 12 TDs | 7 Ints| 108 1st Downs | 16 Sacks | 90.2 QB Rating

Games 9-16 | 8 Games Played | 132 Comp. | 217 Attempts | 60.8% | 1569 Yards 7.2avg | 9 TDs | 5 Ints | 78 1st Downs | 20 Sacks | 87.1 QB Rating

In analyzing the data and separating the season into halves it's apparent that Flacco's production is not nearly as high as in the first half of the season. There has been much talk about this. And for a young, promising QB he's only supposed to improve - so fans might have been let down when he seemingly declined over the last half of the season. However, a closer look at the numbers shows that Flacco is just as efficient. His low production is a reflection of the small amount of opportunities (drop backs) given to him. It's also apparent that he has taken more sacks, which could be an affect of the injury he sustained in the latter part of the season. However, causality for the increased amount of sacks is usually a combination of things like offensive line play, wide receiver play (coverage sacks) and perhaps even (the most harmful) hesitance on the part of the Quarterback. Regardless, Flacco was just as efficient as a Quarterback but had less opportunities in the latter end of the season. This could be due to the Ravens passing in the warmer part of the season and favoring running the ball in the cold weather. Flacco's play in cold weather (40F and less) translates to a 87 QB Rating - and in temperatures 41-60F it's a 91.6 QB Rating. In moderate fall temperature (61 - 80F) it's 82.2 QB Rating. So, it's not that Flacco can't throw the ball in cold weather (he excels in the cold) but that running is more favorable late in the season and that explains his decreased productivity.

[berad]

This has been done somewhere before, or at least something similar... just can't put my finger on where/what...

[Ed_Reed20]

[quote name='berad' timestamp='1302996717' post='666202']
This has been done somewhere before, or at least something similar... just can't put my finger on where/what...
[/quote]

I remember someone doing it too. I think it might have been ATD in one of the numerous threads concerning Joe soon after the season ended for the Ravens.

[berad]

[quote name='Ed_Reed20' timestamp='1302996944' post='666205']
I remember someone doing it too. I think it might have been ATD in one of the numerous threads concerning Joe soon after the season ended for the Ravens.
[/quote]

Yeah, but I distinctly remember him being compared to other QBs with similar metrics. I'll have to look into it.

[mgridda]

Full Disclosure:

I posted this on the BaltimoreSun's forums after the 2009 season. Tony Lombardi (of Ravens24x7) approached me about writing for his site.

I think I declined because I thought my work needed to be polished and edited before being published. Someone could have copied and pasted it and posted it here within that timeframe.

[berad]

I've seen it somewhere else... on these forums, I think. I wouldn't bother going to the Sun forums. Still looking.

[Romo Ravens]

There's gotta be a record for how many topics someone has made in a day. You might have actually broken it

[RivenHale]

Wait, the biggest arm in football is Philip Rivers? When did that happen?

[mgridda]

[quote name='berad' timestamp='1302997600' post='666215']
I've seen it somewhere else... on these forums, I think. I wouldn't bother going to the Sun forums. Still looking.
[/quote]

If you find it I'd really like to see it so I could contact that person if it is a plagiarism and tell him to just cite me, next time.

[hawkprey]

[quote name='berad' timestamp='1302997600' post='666215']
I've seen it somewhere else... on these forums, I think. I wouldn't bother going to the Sun forums. Still looking.
[/quote]

Are you talking about the "who has the best deep ball" thread? I think it was flynisimo's. Other than that... yeah, there've been so many Flacco threads.

[berad]

[quote name='mgridda' timestamp='1303245133' post='667179']
If you find it I'd really like to see it so I could contact that person if it is a plagiarism and tell him to just cite me, next time.
[/quote]

Lol, it wasn't exactly the same but I'm pretty sure I remember seeing the percentages of short, medium, and deep passes before. Hold your horses.

[quote name='hawkprey' timestamp='1303246412' post='667192']
Are you talking about the "who has the best deep ball" thread? I think it was flynisimo's. Other than that... yeah, there've been so many Flacco threads.
[/quote]

Oh, good idea - fly... I remember Twoo's thread about his passes from shotgun versus under center but that wasn't it, either. Lots of Flacco info floating around.