[Blogs] Late for Work 11/11: 20 Bucks If You Can Pick Tonight’s Winner

[BR News]

20 Bucks If You Can Pick Tonight’s Winner

Baltimore Sun columnist Kevin Cowherd exemplified the difficulty of picking a winner for Thursday night’s contest.

"I tried to pick the winner of tonight’s big Ravens- Atlanta Falcons game and my fat little fingers seemed to hover over the keyboard forever," wrote Cowherd. "Finally all 10 beefy fingers landed on the keyboard with a thud and I wrote: Ravens 24, Falcons 21. And you can take that to the bank.

"In fact, if the Ravens lose, I will jump in my car the next day and personally hand-deliver a $20 bill to every one of you who takes gas in your office pool. (Note to editors: Please run the usual legal disclaimer that gets me out of that. Thanks.)"

Boooooo to the disclaimer!

But, Cowherd isn’t the only one on the fence.

In fact, analysts are split down the middle in predicting a winner between two of the best teams from each NFL conference. So far (as of 9:20 am, some are behind with their picks since it’s a Thursday night game), I have found 11 analysts siding with the Ravens and 10 siding with the Falcons.

After 10,000 simulations, ESPN’s AccuScore gives the Ravens a 59 percent chance of winning. But if quarterback Matt Ryan, who owns a 17-1 home record, doesn’t throw an interception, the Falcons tip the scales in their favor with a 56 percent chance of winning.

The Ravens rush defense has not been as dominant as years past, allowing 4.21 yards per carry. So if running back Michael Turner can pull off 4.5 yards per carry and a touchdown, the Falcons become 59 percent favorites, says AccuScore.

Week 10 Picks: Ravens vs. Falcons

The Baltimore Sun: Four of six pick Falcons
WJZ’s Mark Viviano: Ravens 26, Falcons 23
USA Today: Five of eight pick the Ravens
Yahoo! Sports: Two of three pick the Ravens
Sporting News: Two of three pick Falcons

Total: 11 Ravens picks, 10 Dolphins picks

Ryan Sports a Wig; Places Bounty on Twin Brother’s Head

I couldn’t resist the latest from Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan.

Rex donned a wig and Browns hat and wore a Browns shirt with a pillow stuffed under it to imitate his brother, Rob, at a press conference Wednesday.

The twins’ father, Buddy, was accused of putting bounties on opposing players’ heads back in the day. Now, Rex has put a bounty on his brother’s head for when the two face off in Cleveland Sunday.

"There’s a rumor floating around there’s been a bounty placed on (Rob Ryan’s) head," Rex said. "I don’t know. … All right. Let’s be honest. There is a bounty on his head. There’s no question."
Rex didn’t give his players much of a motivation, however. He is only offering five bucks to the person who takes out his brother.

Words don’t do this video justice…

Kiper’s 2010 Draft Analysis, 2011 Projection

The Ravens Class of 2010 –  Sergio Kindle (non-football injury), Terrence Cody, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, David Reed, Arthur Jones and  Ramon Harewood (Injured Reserve) –  hasn’t as loudly impacted the Ravens as rookie classes of the past.

Ever since Baltimore’s inception in 1996, the Ravens’ first round pick has started at least one game. The Ravens didn’t have a first-rounder this year, but the closest they’ve come to what could be considered a start is Reed’s leading role at kickoff returner in Week 9.

With half the season behind us, Draft guru Mel Kiper gives his mid-season progress report of the Ravens rookies.

"A draft I loved in terms of value hasn’t helped much early," Kiper wrote. "Sergio Kindle is hurt, and elsewhere the players higher on the depth chart are simply too talented to let the current crop make a dent."

And I suppose it’s never too early to make projections for the 2011 Draft. Todd McShay envisions Ravens brass selecting UCLA’s safety Rahim Moore at No. 30.

"If Moore elects to leave school early, he could be the top safety off the board," wrote McShay. "While he’s not an elite talent like [Tennessee's Eric] Berry or [Texas' Earl] Thomas, Moore does have excellent range and ball skills in deep-zone coverage. The time has come for the Ravens to plan for life after Ed Reed."

Police Confirm Rice’s Autograph Came After Warning

While conceding it was "unusual," Baltimore County police will not discipline the officer who received an autograph from running back Ray Rice during a traffic stop.

The police confirmed the officer accepted the signature after a warning was given to Rice for a windshield that was tinted darker than the law allows.

Lt. Robert McCullough told the Baltimore Sun’s Anica Butler, "we determined that the officer didn’t give Mr. Rice special treatment. He treated Mr. Rice no differently than he would have treated any other motorist.

"It is unusual but this was not a quid pro quo. Mr. Rice offered his autograph for the officer’s son."

Quick Hits

• E. Reed is one interception away from No. 50 for his career. If and when he nabs it, he will become the fourth player in NFL history with 50 picks to average at least 20 yards per return. [Baltimore Sun]
• Deion Sanders, who finished his NFL career with the Ravens, will be inducted into the Atlanta Falcons’ Ring of Honor in Thursday night’s game against the Ravens. [Baltimore Sun]
• If you were starting a franchise today, which young quarterback would you select – Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Matt Staford, Mark Sanchez, or Sam Bradford? [NFL.com]
• MichaelOher74: @D_Stallworth18 happy bday to maboi just turned 30 lol
• Bill Barnwell identifies midseason myths and realities. Do the Ravens have an elite defense? Nope, that’s a myth, says Barnwell.  [ESPN Insider]
• Mike Sandos moves Flacco up five spots to No. 4 on his MVP watch. Flacco trails Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, but is ahead of Tom Brady (No.4) and Ryan (No. 10). By the way, this list is deceiving; Sandos considers positions outside of quarterback too. [ESPN]

[url=http://blogs.baltimoreravens.com/2010/11/11/late-for-work-1111-20-bucks-if-you-can-pick-tonights-winner/]View the full article[/url]

[ejscan56]

Just as there are no elite teams this year, I really dont think there are any elite defenses. But I would say the ravens are top 5 or at minimum top 10 which still makes them pretty good. As for the game tonight, its gona be a tight game but if the ravens can stop turner, they should win. I'm gona throw out a score of 27-23 ravens

[coreyadams]

I'll take Ravens for 20.

[BirdsofPrey]

The analysts can try and pump up the NFC, but the teams and depth of talent is nowhere near what AFC teams face week in and week out. There is no comparison to the Ravens first half schedule and Flacons...I think the Ravens surprise some people tonight and make this a lopsided beatdown.

[ESRaven]

After a second half shootout, Ryan has to run the 2 minute drill with the Falcons down 6, Reed seals the win (and hits 50) with a deflection pick off White in traffic. Ravens 32-26.

[Guest Mr. Nobody]

one error left on this article (after the 10 pics have been moved from dolphins to falcons) - how can flacco on 4th be ahead of brady on 4th? 20$ for who knows the answer! anyways, can't wait for early morning tomorrow here in UK to see Ravens win 27-20

[FlatLyne]

It should be a good solid win for who ever comes out on top. Hopefully its us. I think turnovers and minimizing mistakes will be the key. Everyone keeps talking about ATL's home record (which is impressive, so they do deserve props), but the Ravens like ending streaks and records (1st team to beat Tenn in their new stadium awhile back, almost beat the Pats when they went undefeated, 1st to beat Denver after a 6-0 start last year, Pats home playoff record last season, Miami's road record last game). Why not add another to the list?

[KillaBirdTJ]

I think our D would improve if they started Cody in the middle... Some of you may disagree but I wouldn't mind seeing this as our front 4;

- Suggs,Cody,McKinney,Ngata
or
- Suggs,Cody,Ngata,Krugar

[FerrariFan87]

Why do the people at the Sun almost always pick against us in close games? Oh, well...

[Chip Leader]

I am actually considering a bet AGAINST the Ravens tonight. If we win, I'll be so psyched about the getting such a tough win that I won't care about the money I lost. If we lose, I'll be upset, but at least I can cry into some newly won funds. The only way to really get hurt is if the Ravens lose but still cover the spread, but I don't think that can happen as the last line I saw had the Falcons favored by 1.

GO RAVENS!!

[Maui_jim_11]

This is going to be a 30 something - 30 something shoot out tonight. Hotlanta will come out throwing the deep ball early. The ravens will start with a heavy dose of smashmouth up the gut, vintage ravens football. Come halftime both teams go to locker room either tied or within 3 points. Second half the Falcons focus on the run more while the Ravens 1st half run game opens the pass for Boldin and the talented tight ends to secure a victory, with Cundiff kicking yet another game winner.

Ravens Defense will get out of position on a few plays early in the game allowing a couple of touchdowns but will adjust quickly. after they adjustment nickel coverage will get 2 picks late in the 2nd quarter, this making the Falcons more run oriented in the second half. Ravens D will stop the run from then on. Atlanta will struggle all game containing Rice in the flats on checkdowns, and will not be able to stop McLain and Willis in the redzone.

Ravens 37 Falcons 34

[TXRavensFan]

If we were going to run a more or less standard 4-3 to stop the run, I don't like Suggs at DE. I think something like this would work better:

Kruger Cody Ngata Redding

Suggs Lewis Phillips

Put Suggs in the Peter Boulware "Will" role where I think he'd be a beast, and Have Phillips in for his run-stopping ability on the strong side (but would need to be subbed on passing downs)

[1/28/01]

[quote name='Maui_jim_11' timestamp='1289490742' post='534542']
This is going to be a 30 something - 30 something shoot out tonight. Hotlanta will come out throwing the deep ball early. The ravens will start with a heavy dose of smashmouth up the gut, vintage ravens football. Come halftime both teams go to locker room either tied or within 3 points. Second half the Falcons focus on the run more while the Ravens 1st half run game opens the pass for Boldin and the talented tight ends to secure a victory, with Cundiff kicking yet another game winner.

Ravens Defense will get out of position on a few plays early in the game allowing a couple of touchdowns but will adjust quickly. after they adjustment nickel coverage will get 2 picks late in the 2nd quarter, this making the Falcons more run oriented in the second half. Ravens D will stop the run from then on. Atlanta will struggle all game containing Rice in the flats on checkdowns, and will not be able to stop McLain and Willis in the redzone.

Ravens 37 Falcons 34
[/quote]
So, each team will rely heavily on the run for one half during a "shoot out"? Interesting ......

[TXRavensFan]

Although, now that I think about it, I think I read in the Atlanta paper that the Falcon were averaging 10 yard less rushing a game vs. the 3-4 defense....

[JayDaRavensFan]

[quote name='TXRavensFan' timestamp='1289490944' post='534545']
If we were going to run a more or less standard 4-3 to stop the run, I don't like Suggs at DE. I think something like this would work better:

Kruger Cody Ngata Redding

Suggs Lewis Phillips

Put Suggs in the Peter Boulware "Will" role where I think he'd be a beast, and Have Phillips in for his run-stopping ability on the strong side (but would need to be subbed on passing downs)
[/quote]
So where does JJ play? I know hes struggled some this year but Phillips will not play ahead of him if he even plays.

[bmorefan444]

If we play up to our potential, we win.

[Maui_jim_11]

The actuall definition of a shootout from the dictionary in sports is a high scoring period or game. Also a means to resolve a tie after overtime in hockey and soccer.

not trying to be a jerk.

[PeRK82]

everyone seems to think this game is going to be close, i think either team is going to hand out an [i]<butt>[/i] whopping.

I THINK THE RAVENS ARE GOING TO COME OUT ON TOP, OF COURSE

[NC_RAYvensFan]

I'll pick.....Ravens. You can deliver that $20 here on the southern Outer Banks of NC! As for Rex Ryan's depiction of his larger twin brother.......He looks like "Dog the Pastrami Hunter"!!!!!!

[kadbron27]

the better we keep the rest of the defense, the longer Ed and Ray will/can be here. make it happen ozzie....fountain of youth is in the D-Line and Pressure Pressure Pressure

[kadbron27]

Oh...Ravens 31 Falcons 27

"Take that to the bank"

[ghost1986]

We can win. It's going to be tough, but we can do it. I wonder how many Falcons will drop passes or go down/out of bounds when they see #52 coming at them. I think this is going to be the game when we get pressure. Flacco just needs to continue to remain consistent and cool. But I do have a lot of respect for the Falcons. When asked if he wanted to trash-talk us, Ryan refused. And they are good, but we're better. Can't wait to see Ngata and company storm the trenches.

[UrbanLedjen]

Turner gets held to under 70 yards.

[ozrave]

IMHO, this game will come down to our D. If they play their best, the game's ours.

Let Cody flatten Ryan. Pressure, pressure, pressure.

Go Ravens. 7-2.

[PWNEDbyDEANO]

I think the game comes solely down to our D vs their O. I have faith in our ever steadily progressing offense to do enough to set us up tonight.

[The King]

The key to this game, IMO, is for our offense to come out hot. If we can establish a couple of strong offensive drives and put points on the board, then we can force them to pass to catch up. Though Matt Ryan is a good QB with a pair of great receivers in white and Gonzalez, their ground attack poses the greatest threat to us. We can take that away by attacking on offense and forcing them to change their game plan, which undoubtedly includes a lot of Michael Turner.

[jhonnyboy]

ravens baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ozrave]

Step up D. Strike fear in their hearts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RukUetw0hAM

[ThisGirlLovesFootball2]

As i said before ,it's gonna be a tight game tonight ,we must get points on the board early , no room for any mistakes ,no overturns , please , hit hard ! fast and furious !
Ravens are among the smartest of all birds, gaining a reputation for solving ever more complicated problems invented by ever more creative scientists.
Let's outsmart the Falcons tonight ,enough said !!!
And Lets go Ravens !!

[purple.n.black]

Sad to say it, but because of the short week I think there will be a lot of mistakes early. Especially on both defensive sides of the ball. This should make points come somewhat easily for a while, until the teams calm down and get into their groove. Therefore, I think even with all of those possible mistakes we should ground and pound early. It should be a close one and no doubt our defense will probably be tired from their running attack, so we need to do the same to them and then some. I want the upper hand when the game gets down to the wire. THAT is how we can win.