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Elmo

"Elite" Receivers

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Ok... So constantly the Ravens make a move, and people will say: "Well as long as we still get Marshall or Boldin, it's fine with me"

So I decided to look into it a little bit... There are 32 teams in the NFL. Must be an "elite" receiver for everone right? Especially since every team has more than one receiver.

So I made a list of the receivers, not considering availability at all, to see how many "veteran, deep threat no. 1 receivers that we totally MUST get" (As you might have noticed I'm not a big supporter of the "trade the world away for a receiver"-idea.) Here goes:

"Elite - no.1"
Larry Fitz
Boldin
C. Johnson (Megatron)
Andre Johnson
Brandon Marshall
Ochocinco
Randy Moss
Miles Austin
V-Jax
Reggie Wayne
Roddy White
Colston
[b]Total in this category: 12 receivers[/b]

"Plausible no. 1"
Wes Welker
Sidney Rice
Dwayne Bowe
Greg Jennings
Lee Evans
Mike Sims-Walker
Steve Smith (Car.)
Steve Smith (NYG)
R. Meachem
[b]Total in this category: 9 receivers[/b]

"Long-shots"
Malcolm Floyd
Braylon Edwards
Austin Collie
Pierre Garcon
Plaxico Burress
T.O.
Anthony Gonzales (My personal sleeper trade. The emergence of the 2 young colts stars might make Gonzo interesting for us)
[b]total in this category: 7 receivers[/b]

Total receivers who might be no. 1 should we get them: 28

In other words... We won't be the only team looking to add these players IF they should be available... So what I want to know is, why do people think the price of a guy in the top 12 above here (eg. Boldin or Marshall) should be anywhere near affordable without mortgaging the future?

Well, glad to get that of my chest...


Disclaimer: I probably left out a handful of recceivers on my lists above... Be glad to hear about them, 'cause I can't think of them right now. (Steelers receivers were left out on purpose as I would never think they'd belong on any of those 3 lists, lol)
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I would count Donald Driver as a "plausible" #1.

Good post though. I know some people will say Ray Lewis and the other vets can't wait but I really want the Ravens to finally develop a productive WR like so many other teams have done.
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I'll agree with this post and what Elmo is trying to get across.

The thought of acquiring a Marshall or Boldin is borderline fantasy football talk. I don't personally think Marshall is worth a trade + draft pick or any combination there of. Why? Because we would potentially be losing out on picking up a Rice, Webb, Flacco, Oher and the list goes on.

Get my point?

Unless the Ravens staff can pick up on a great opportunity, count on it not happening. I am.

Our current position makes it very difficult to get a top WR.
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If you don't think Marshall is worth a trade, check out my post from the thread "Shefty Says" in Ravens Talk...

[b]"[/b]Floyd will get overpaid this offseason and we won't get him.

And while I wouldn't give a first and a third for Anquan (only 'cus of his age), I would give a 1st. He's better than any receiver we could draft in the first this year (yes, even Dez who drops too many passes).

And before you talk about whether Marshall is worth the draft picks, realize that he is on pace to be the best statistical WR in NFL history. No receiver that will be drafted this year or next will be as good as him. Character issues aside, if you can get him at 25 years old for a 1st and a 3rd, you do it. Would you give a 1st and a 3rd for Jerry Rice at 25? What about Randy Moss? Or Larry Fitzgerald? As scary as it is, Marshall has more potential than all of them. I don't even think his character issues are that bad. Most of it is domestic stuff that can be fixed with a move (or at least kept away from the team). While he is a repeat offender, he's still really young and probably a bit stupid. I don't think he'll be beating his girlfriend or fighting with his dad when he's 28 or 30. Also, his problems with McDaniels were circumstantial. McDaniels traded away his QB and was changing things very quickly--you can understand that Marshall doesn't want to lose the guy who has been passing to him in his contract year. In interviews I've seen with him, he always seems upbeat and smiling. His issues are overblown. Ravens should trade whatever they can to get him. We are already a good team--he's better than any player we will draft this year--and, in reality, he's worth more than probably our entire 2010 draft combined. Will this draft class win us a SuperBowl in 2010? Probably not. Will Marshall? I think yes.

Note that last year, from our 2009 draft class, only 2 players got significant time: 1st rounder Oher, and 3rd rounder Webb. And of the two, only one was a consistent contributor. Draft picks tend to be overvalued. I'm all for hording picks and building through the draft, but the Ravens have been doing that for a long time, and I think we can sacrifice 2 picks (a first and a third) for a plyer that can help us win a SB. I think it's worth it.[b]"[/b]
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 06:56 PM' timestamp='1266537370' post='361993']
If you don't think Marshall is worth a trade, check out my post from the thread "Shefty Says" in Ravens Talk...

[b]"[/b]Floyd will get overpaid this offseason and we won't get him.

And while I wouldn't give a first and a third for Anquan (only 'cus of his age), I would give a 1st. He's better than any receiver we could draft in the first this year (yes, even Dez who drops too many passes).

And before you talk about whether Marshall is worth the draft picks, realize that he is on pace to be the best statistical WR in NFL history. No receiver that will be drafted this year or next will be as good as him. Character issues aside, if you can get him at 25 years old for a 1st and a 3rd, you do it. Would you give a 1st and a 3rd for Jerry Rice at 25? What about Randy Moss? Or Larry Fitzgerald? As scary as it is, Marshall has more potential than all of them. I don't even think his character issues are that bad. Most of it is domestic stuff that can be fixed with a move (or at least kept away from the team). While he is a repeat offender, he's still really young and probably a bit stupid. I don't think he'll be beating his girlfriend or fighting with his dad when he's 28 or 30. Also, his problems with McDaniels were circumstantial. McDaniels traded away his QB and was changing things very quickly--you can understand that Marshall doesn't want to lose the guy who has been passing to him in his contract year. In interviews I've seen with him, he always seems upbeat and smiling. His issues are overblown. Ravens should trade whatever they can to get him. We are already a good team--he's better than any player we will draft this year--and, in reality, he's worth more than probably our entire 2010 draft combined. Will this draft class win us a SuperBowl in 2010? Probably not. Will Marshall? I think yes.

Note that last year, from our 2009 draft class, only 2 players got significant time: 1st rounder Oher, and 3rd rounder Webb. And of the two, only one was a consistent contributor. Draft picks tend to be overvalued. I'm all for hording picks and building through the draft, but the Ravens have been doing that for a long time, and I think we can sacrifice 2 picks (a first and a third) for a plyer that can help us win a SB. I think it's worth it.[b]"[/b]
[/quote]

You made some great points but the main argument I have against trading away multiple picks for Marshall is that I doubt he alone could get this team to the Super Bowl.

In the history of football, when has one player ever been the difference in getting a team to the SB.

You claim he alone is worth more than the entire 2010 draft class? Are you serious? For all we know, the Ravens could have the best draft class in the history of the franchise this year.

As for his domestic problems, they have been with the same woman. I highly doubt a move would fix them. And even if they're kept away from the team, one more major slip up on his part could result in a lengthy suspension.

It's easy to say he'll grow up at time goes on but how do you know?
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[quote name='Ed_Reed20' date='18 February 2010 - 07:12 PM' timestamp='1266538373' post='362005']
You made some great points but the main argument I have against trading away multiple picks for Marshall is that I doubt he alone could get this team to the Super Bowl.

In the history of football, when has one player ever been the difference in getting a team to the SB.

You claim he alone is worth more than the entire 2010 draft class? Are you serious? For all we know, the Ravens could have the best draft class in the history of the franchise this year.

As for his domestic problems, they have been with the same woman. I highly doubt a move would fix them. And even if they're kept away from the team, one more major slip up on his part could result in a lengthy suspension.

It's easy to say he'll grow up at time goes on but how do you know?
[/quote]
The difference between your POV and mine is that I believe he could become the best WR in NFL history. I think that's worth any draft pick. Obviously I wasn't actually suggesting the Ravens give their entire draft class--but realistically, only 2-3 players from a draft class make the team, and usually only 1 or 2 are even noticeable. This is a super-young, amazing receiver who looks like he needs a home and change of place. And obviously it wouldn't be JUST him that wins us the SB. But I DO think that a team as close as the Ravens, with the additions of Stallworth and Marshall, could win the SB--That plus the added experience of the young players. If you put it in perspective (Marshall is 25), you can pretend he's a rookie. Some rookies come out at 25. Ed Reed was 24 on his first game. Now think, is it worth giving a first and a third for a rookie receiver who could be the best ever--or at least the best in the league--in a few seasons? Who are you going to pick in those rounds that is better? The problem with trading draft picks is that people overvalue them because there is an element of mystery to them. You could pick the best player ever, or you could pick a bust. [i]Peyton Manning was a first round pick--why in the hell would you ever give up a first round pick? Don't you want a Peyton Manning?[/i] I'm willing to guarantee we don't pick a receiver better than Marshall--or even that no one picked past #3 in that draft class will be as good or productive as Marshall.
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 07:29 PM' timestamp='1266539366' post='362016']
The difference between your POV and mine is that I believe he could become the best WR in NFL history. I think that's worth any draft pick. Obviously I wasn't actually suggesting the Ravens give their entire draft class--but realistically, only 2-3 players from a draft class make the team, and usually only 1 or 2 are even noticeable. This is a super-young, amazing receiver who looks like he needs a home and change of place. And obviously it wouldn't be JUST him that wins us the SB. But I DO think that a team as close as the Ravens, with the additions of Stallworth and Marshall, could win the SB--That plus the added experience of the young players. If you put it in perspective (Marshall is 25), you can pretend he's a rookie. Some rookies come out at 25. Ed Reed was 24 on his first game. Now think, is it worth giving a first and a third for a rookie receiver who could be the best ever--or at least the best in the league--in a few seasons? Who are you going to pick in those rounds that is better? The problem with trading draft picks is that people overvalue them because there is an element of mystery to them. You could pick the best player ever, or you could pick a bust. [i]Peyton Manning was a first round pick--why in the hell would you ever give up a first round pick? Don't you want a Peyton Manning?[/i] I'm willing to guarantee we don't pick a receiver better than Marshall--or even that no one picked past #3 in that draft class will be as good or productive as Marshall.
[/quote]

Best WR in NFL history? The chances of Marshall displaying Rice's longevity are pretty slim and his career isn't in even over yet and your already labeling him the best.

Regardless, you're assuming the Ravens can't draft players that equal the contributions Marshall would make on this team. Yes, he's been incredibly productive in his short career but what about the team's future? There are other needs on the team besides WR. Trading away a first and a third for Marshall wouldn't allow the Ravens to draft the cream of the crop in a pretty strong draft year.

You can make all the guarantees you want but in the end, it's just puffery.
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[quote name='Ed_Reed20' date='18 February 2010 - 07:37 PM' timestamp='1266539857' post='362035']
Best WR in NFL history? The chances of Marshall displaying Rice's longevity are pretty slim and his career isn't in even over yet and your already labeling him the best.

Regardless, you're assuming the Ravens can't draft players that equal the contributions Marshall would make on this team. Yes, he's been incredibly productive in his short career but what about the team's future? There are other needs on the team besides WR. Trading away a first and a third for Marshall wouldn't allow the Ravens to draft the cream of the crop in a pretty strong draft year.
[/quote]
But the thing is, Marshall isn't old at all. If he was like 29, then it wouldn't be worth it because his contributions would obviously be solely in the short-term. He could be a rookie right now. Don't look at it as giving away a pick for a player, look at it as getting Marshall with that 1st rounder. And I'm not saying that Marshall will outlast Rice. I don't know if he'll be playing when he's over 35--different players take aging in different ways. But, I do think that in his prime his production will be better than Rice. Whether he's "better" or not, I don't know--he's consistent. He's had three 100 catch years in a row. Rice did that in his 10th, 11th, and 12th seasons. Marshall did it in his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. That's ridiculous. The Rice comparison was merely for effect--I understand if you don't want to compare Marshall to Rice because people are always hesitant to compare active players to all-time greats--but I'm saying Marshall already has the production of a HOFer in his first 3 years as a starter--do you really think if we trade for him he'll flame out and we'll be regretting this in a few years?
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I don't want to trade the world away for a receiver either. What I want is to get the best player for the best price. Most sources have Boldin's trade value somewhere between a first and a second. A single pick for a proven, pro-bowl, number one receiver. That is [i]far[/i] better value than any other receiving option. It would definitely be better to trade the first for Boldin than to draft an unproven target with the same pick. We'd certainly get four or five (but probably more) very good years out of Boldin. That's not trading the world away, that's getting the best value.
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[quote name='63bru' date='18 February 2010 - 07:50 PM' timestamp='1266540656' post='362058']
I don't want to trade the world away for a receiver either. What I want is to get the best player for the best price. Most sources have Boldin's trade value somewhere between a first and a second. A single pick for a proven, pro-bowl, number one receiver. That is [i]far[/i] better value than any other receiving option. It would definitely be better to trade the first for Boldin than to draft an unproven target with the same pick. We'd certainly get four or five (but probably more) very good years out of Boldin. That's not trading the world away, that's getting the best value.
[/quote]
With Marshall all you have to do is add a 3rd to that--a guy who will be a role-player at best--and we could get a better player who could give us 10 years instead of Boldin's five.
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 07:57 PM' timestamp='1266541020' post='362067']
With Marshall all you have to do is add a 3rd to that--a guy who will be a role-player at best--and we could get a better player who could give us 10 years instead of Boldin's five.
[/quote]
Fair enough. I'm concerned about Marshall's character, but I think he's an elite receiver. That's on Harbs; if he knows he can make a good citizen out of Marshall, then he'd be a good move. If not, then Boldin is the right move. My point is that trading a single pick for an elite veteran is better value than using that pick on an unproven rookie at the same position. Also, it's FAR better value than trading that pick up to draft another unproven rookie in Dez Bryant. Trading up makes absolutely ZERO sense when there are elite veterans we could get for less.
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When is the last time Brandon Marshall's team made the playoffs? Ok, now how can you say that he will put this team over the top and we will win a Super Bowl if we get him? According to you, you would trade away the entire Ravens 2010 Draft to get him. Let's not forget about the truckload of money that he is going to want, and the risk he poses of being suspended.

Not a smart move at all, he's not coming here. Let's let it go for the love of god.
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 07:29 PM' timestamp='1266539366' post='362016']
The difference between your POV and mine is that I believe he could become the best WR in NFL history. I think that's worth any draft pick.
[/quote]
But that's the thing: he [i]could[/i] become the best in NFL history, but doesn't mean that he [i]will[/i]. Being on-pace statistically doesn't mean that the book is written on that player keeping pace or living up to his billing. Shaun Alexander could've been one of the best RBs in NFL history after setting the single-season TD record (eventually broken by LaDainian Tomlinson) -- look where he's at now. Instead of being top-5 in league history overall, he's now a mere footnote in the record books.
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 07:49 PM' timestamp='1266540597' post='362056']
But the thing is, Marshall isn't old at all. If he was like 29, then it wouldn't be worth it because his contributions would obviously be solely in the short-term. He could be a rookie right now. Don't look at it as giving away a pick for a player, look at it as getting Marshall with that 1st rounder. And I'm not saying that Marshall will outlast Rice. I don't know if he'll be playing when he's over 35--different players take aging in different ways. But, I do think that in his prime his production will be better than Rice. Whether he's "better" or not, I don't know--he's consistent. He's had three 100 catch years in a row. Rice did that in his 10th, 11th, and 12th seasons. Marshall did it in his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. That's ridiculous. The Rice comparison was merely for effect--I understand if you don't want to compare Marshall to Rice because people are always hesitant to compare active players to all-time greats--but I'm saying Marshall already has the production of a HOFer in his first 3 years as a starter--do you really think if we trade for him he'll flame out and we'll be regretting this in a few years?
[/quote]

No, the prospect of Marshall in Baltimore is a phenomenal thought but at what cost? A 1st round pick is one thing but other picks as well? For just a WR?

And the team could up regretting the trade if he gets into trouble again(a strong possibility).

Yes, he's been incredibly productive in a short time but when your team doesn't have many other good weapons(like Rice did) and your behind in a lot of games(the Broncos have been average at best since Marshall got there) you're going to catch a lot of balls.

But really, all of this is moot. Ozzie likely won't trade multiple picks for Marshall and Bisciotti said he's not a fan of repeat offenders.
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[quote name='JEEPercreepermd' date='18 February 2010 - 08:12 PM' timestamp='1266541929' post='362082']
When is the last time Brandon Marshall's team made the playoffs? Ok, now how can you say that he will put this team over the top and we will win a Super Bowl if we get him? According to you, you would trade away the entire Ravens 2010 Draft to get him. Let's not forget about the truckload of money that he is going to want, and the risk he poses of being suspended.

Not a smart move at all, he's not coming here. Let's let it go for the love of god.
[/quote]
Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin were together on the anemic Cardinals for years and didn't make it to the playoffs until they got Kurt Warner. But since we have all the pieces in place, a legit pass game could put us over the top. You're saying he's not good enough? You're saying he should have got 150 reception last year? Or 15 touchdowns? What more could he have done that doesn't deem him worthy in your opinion? You obviously don't think his performance is enough . The problem with our pass game is that we have a bunch of #2 receivers that no one is scared of. And how do you know he'll demand a boatload of money? He's a #1 receiver, maybe the best young receiver in the league... you don't think he should get money on par with his performance? If a boatload is on par with the other good players at his position, then yes we'd give him a boatload... the same way we'll give Ray Rice a fair deal on par with the other RBs of his caliber when he's due for a new contract.

And the thing about trading the entire draft class.. that was for effect. My point was that when you think about, a draft class is usually just picks 1, 2, and 3. The 4th-6th round picks usually don't last past their first contracts. We have 2 players left on this team from the 2005 draft class. 1 player from the 2004 draft class. 2 players from the 2003 draft class. My point is that picks are sometimes overvalued because historically you usually only keep 1 or 2 players from a draft class. In last year's draft, our 2nd round pick hardly played at all, and our 5th, other 5th, and 6th round picks didn't make the team. Would you trade a 2nd, two 5ths and 6th for Marshall this year? Probably not, right? But would you trade Paul Kruger, Davon Drew, Jason Phillips, and Cedric Peerman for Marshall? If you wouldn't, then you're crazy. Those are what we actually got with those picks.

I'm not saying we should do trades like this everyday, but this once I think it's fair. An "elite," proven, young receiver isn't up for trade very often.
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[quote name='theFRANCHISE' date='18 February 2010 - 08:17 PM' timestamp='1266542238' post='362087']
But that's the thing: he [i]could[/i] become the best in NFL history, but doesn't mean that he [i]will[/i]. Being on-pace statistically doesn't mean that the book is written on that player keeping pace or living up to his billing. Shaun Alexander could've been one of the best RBs in NFL history after setting the single-season TD record (eventually broken by LaDainian Tomlinson) -- look where he's at now. Instead of being top-5 in league history overall, he's now a mere footnote in the record books.
[/quote]
RB is a completely different position than WR. RBs last far less than WRs, everybody knows that. They must have workhorsed him too hard and killed him. Like Larry Johnson who was basically done after setting the league on fire for two seasons. Don't try to make that comparison.
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Marshall is a head-case. Fans of his can sympathize or try to rationalize his behavior but there's a reason he's had issues at home and in the locker. .

What's to stop those problems from coming here?
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 09:03 PM' timestamp='1266545022' post='362139']
So is the only reason you wouldn't trade a 1st and 3rd because of his off-the-field issues?
[/quote]

No. There are other positions on this team that I feel the Ravens could address in this year's talented draft class that happens to be deep at positions the Ravens need. Plus, the combined contributions of the rookies would be just as significant as Marshall in my opinion.
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[quote name='Ed_Reed20' date='18 February 2010 - 09:18 PM' timestamp='1266545928' post='362145']
No. There are other positions on this team that I feel the Ravens could address in this year's talented draft class that happens to be deep at positions the Ravens need. [b]Plus, the combined contributions of the rookies would be just as significant as Marshall in my opinion.[/b]
[/quote]
That's where we disagree.
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 08:41 PM' timestamp='1266543684' post='362113']
RB is a completely different position than WR. RBs last far less than WRs, everybody knows that. They must have workhorsed him too hard and killed him. Like Larry Johnson who was basically done after setting the league on fire for two seasons. Don't try to make that comparison.
[/quote]
But different positions notwithstanding, I'm referring to the notion of giving up too much for someone who [i]could[/i] become the best of all time but isn't guaranteed to be. My point I was making was that success is not guaranteed and that no amount of prognostication or prior success can accurately predict future success to [i]that[/i] extent. I'm not comparing a WR to a RB position-wise.

If you want a more apt example, look at Keyshawn Johnson. In Johnson's first four seasons, he averaged 1027 yards per season. Brandon Marshall, meanwhile, is averaging 1004.75 yards in his first four years. Johnson got off to a promising start, with his production increasing each of those four seasons -- but look where Johnson is now. Is Johnson considered a Hall of Famer? Highly unlikely.

I'm not sure if an argument can be made for Marshall eventually becoming the best of all-time if the numbers are similar to a guy who flamed out. Even more strikingly, Jerry Rice outpaces Marshall by almost 1000 whole yards in his first four seasons. If Jerry Rice is the greatest of all-time, how can a guy like Marshall expect to catch up if he keeps gambling with his career by demanding trades and missing games due to suspension or injury?
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[quote name='theFRANCHISE' date='18 February 2010 - 10:09 PM' timestamp='1266548985' post='362183']
But different positions notwithstanding, I'm referring to the notion of giving up too much for someone who [i]could[/i] become the best of all time but isn't guaranteed to be. My point I was making was that success is not guaranteed and that no amount of prognostication or prior success can accurately predict future success to [i]that[/i] extent. I'm not comparing a WR to a RB position-wise.

If you want a more apt example, look at Keyshawn Johnson. In Johnson's first four seasons, he averaged 1027 yards per season. Brandon Marshall, meanwhile, is averaging 1004.75 yards in his first four years. Johnson got off to a promising start, with his production increasing each of those four seasons -- but look where Johnson is now. Is Johnson considered a Hall of Famer? Highly unlikely.

I'm not sure if an argument can be made for Marshall eventually becoming the best of all-time if the numbers are similar to a guy who flamed out. Even more strikingly, Jerry Rice outpaces Marshall by almost 1000 whole yards in his first four seasons. If Jerry Rice is the greatest of all-time, how can a guy like Marshall expect to catch up if he keeps gambling with his career by demanding trades and missing games due to suspension or injury?
[/quote]


Brandon Marshall's yards per catch are not that impressive either. Pretty much his numbers would compare to Derrick Mason if he had Mason's catch totals or vice verse. To boot, Mason has the will to win. Can that be said about Marshall?
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[quote name='Purple' date='18 February 2010 - 10:02 PM' timestamp='1266548565' post='362176']
That's where we disagree.
[/quote]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
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I think we should do whatever we can to get an elite reciever because we don't have the time or can risk trying to fill that void in the draft. I think malcolm Floyd would be a good move for us. He's not proven but his size alone helps an with signing mason for a two yr deal I think will help with bringing Floyd along with the number one position. I also would like to see us go after Jason avant from Philly another cheap wideout with potential
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What makes me really sad is the fact that we [i]could have[/i] taken brandon marshall in the 4th round of the 2006 nfl draft instead of demetrius williams.

I know, I know. Would've should've could've. But my god, can you imagine?
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[quote name='uamaukeeaokaainaikapono' date='18 February 2010 - 11:01 PM' timestamp='1266552106' post='362207']
What makes me really sad is the fact that we [i]could have[/i] taken brandon marshall in the 4th round of the 2006 nfl draft instead of demetrius williams.

I know, I know. Would've should've could've. But my god, can you imagine?
[/quote]

There's no guarantee Marshall would be the player he is now had he been drafted by the Ravens.

Still, it [i]could've[/i] been pretty sweet.
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[quote name='JEEPercreepermd' date='18 February 2010 - 08:12 PM' timestamp='1266541929' post='362082']
[b]When is the last time Brandon Marshall's team made the playoffs?[/b] Ok, now how can you say that he will put this team over the top and we will win a Super Bowl if we get him? According to you, you would trade away the entire Ravens 2010 Draft to get him. Let's not forget about the truckload of money that he is going to want, and the risk he poses of being suspended.

Not a smart move at all, he's not coming here. Let's let it go.
[/quote]
In some ways, the situation reminds me of Jay Cutler... And that's not a good thing.
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