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BohBalmerOsbohs

Next Up: Packers

133 posts in this topic

As yet another Packers fan, a few things wrong here:

[quote]
One, to whoever called the Packers defense stingy, it's not. It looks like it on the statsheets because of the two Lions games and the Browns game. The D has had several horrendous performances this season, including both Vikings games and that god awful Buccaneers game (inexcusable).[/quote]

Apparently you did not watch that "god awful" Buccaneers game, giving all but ten of their points came about through massive special teams failing, be it the blocked punt, immensely short field, and throw in the Rodgers pick six to even it out.

Green Bay metrically does have a stingy defense in the areas that are the best judgments of defensive quality; they are 1st in the NFL in 3rd down %, they are 2rd in Y/A after you guys, they have the best deep zone (see: opponent pinned within their 20) defense in the NFL, they are 4th in defensive passer rating, have the #1 ranked defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and the #2 ranked Defensive Hog Index according to Cold Hard Football Facts. In the past three weeks alone they have jumped thirteen spots in sacks since Brad Jones was added to the lineup in place of Kampman.

[quote]
That said, there are playmakers on that defense, and they can win a game single-handedly. Charles Woodson and Nick Collins are the two that jump out, but the rookie Clay Matthews and also Tramon Williams have made some as well. Bottom line, it's an all or nothing defense. They either get turnovers and make a day hell for the quarterback, or they get embarrassed. [/quote]

Green Bay has forced a turnover in every game so far this season and more than one in eight of twelve, so not sure where that idea comes from; during the Vikings games the defense sold out to stop Peterson plus injuries to the secondary had the former Raven Derrick Martin get abused by Favre and Brandon Chillar being pulled back in Big Okie to play safety on downfield routes.

[quote]
As the other Packer fan said, Aaron Kampman is not a big loss this year. The 3-4 is the reason for that. His production in this scheme was pretty minimal, and Brad Jones has played very well in his absence. Clay Matthews is the playmaking LB of this team right now.[/quote]

Brad Jones is interesting in that he allowed Capers to open up the blitz packages; Kampman despite his progress was the worst coverage LB on the team, something which Jones excels at which opens up alot of zone blitz looks; he's pretty small and weak at the POA however. Matthews is the primary pass-rushing OLB at this point in the season, his first step is extremely quick and he's becoming an excellent speed rusher.


[quote]
And to whoever said the Ravens plan should be to use Rice, I disagree. This game is on Flacco. The Packers are much better at defending the run than the pass, which again you would not know from looking at their stats. Misleading numbers. They managed to shut down Adrian Peterson once, and hold him to 25 carries for 97 yards in the second game, yet got absolutely shredded by Favre twice. If Flacco doesn't have a good game, the Ravens probably don't win.[/quote]

The Packers are fourth in the league in interceptions, have the lowest forced completion percentage in the NFL, and have the fourth lowest defensive Y/PA, two games a season does not make. If anything Green Bay will come out passing early and force the Ravens to play catchup while going after Flacco.

[quote]
And about Rodgers being sacked, yes, the pass blocking has been horrendous. However, there has been some progress in that regard. Since being sacked an average of 4.6 times per game over the first 8 weeks, he's been sacked an average of about two times the last three weeks. In addition to the blocking being better, Aaron's doing a much better job of getting rid of the ball quickly. He used to hold onto it and scramble around for several seconds before going down. You see that much less now.[/quote]

Also to note is that McCarthy has been using quite a few more three step drops and short, YAC driven passes to pull pressure off Rodgers as well, but with Landry's tackling starting to improve recently and Washington going on IR I would expect Green Bay to exploit the deep ball provided protection holds. I don't really expect much from either run game, but I think if containment is lost Rice could put up some nice recieving numbers; I'd expect Woodson to be stuck on Mason all night given Flacco's propensity for looking his way.

As mentioned above, I'd look for Green Bay to attempt to force the Ravens to play Green Bay's ball, and then go super conservative once they have a lead. The Packers have been red-hot after the disaster that was the Tampa game so Monday should be a great matchup with major playoff implications.
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Maybe rotating the d-line a bit more and establishing a big push in the middle to unsettle Rodgers and get him moving. Also with Flacco running a bit cold we should look at more dumpoffs to Rice, screens etc then bring in McGahee and McClain to pound out the rest of the game.
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I still say if you shut down Ryan Grant then the game becomes MUCH easier, the Pack uses Play Action to perfection and if the running game is rendered useless it will make it MUCH easier to defend the deep ball. Also, the Ravens secondary has improved as of late and Webb has really added a spark to the DB's.
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[quote name='Ian1471']




Apparently you did not watch that "god awful" Buccaneers game, giving all but ten of their points came about through massive special teams failing, be it the blocked punt, immensely short field, and throw in the Rodgers pick six to even it out.

Green Bay metrically does have a stingy defense in the areas that are the best judgments of defensive quality; they are 1st in the NFL in 3rd down %, they are 2rd in Y/A after you guys, they have the best deep zone (see: opponent pinned within their 20) defense in the NFL, they are 4th in defensive passer rating, have the #1 ranked defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and the #2 ranked Defensive Hog Index according to Cold Hard Football Facts. In the past three weeks alone they have jumped thirteen spots in sacks since Brad Jones was added to the lineup in place of Kampman.
[/quote]
And apparently you missed the part of that Buccaneers game where a rookie in his first start picked us apart to the tune of 3 touchdowns. Regardless of bad special teams play, the D managed to give up 24 offensive points to a previously winless team. Enough said.

Like I said several times, you can throw out all the stats you want, but the fact remains that the Lions and Browns, and Bears games are the only reason we rank high statistically in many of those areas.

The bottom line: poor competition is the only reason we have a high ranked defense this season. The only truly great game the D played against good competition is the Cowboys game.



[quote]Green Bay has forced a turnover in every game so far this season and more than one in eight of twelve, so not sure where that idea comes from; during the Vikings games the defense sold out to stop Peterson plus injuries to the secondary had the former Raven Derrick Martin get abused by Favre and Brandon Chillar being pulled back in Big Okie to play safety on downfield routes.[/quote]
The fact that they sold out to stop Peterson doesn't change the fact that they got absolutely demolished twice by Favre; horrid defense is horrid defense any way you slice it. "That idea" comes from the fact that every time we haven't been able to pressure a quarterback and force big mistakes, we've been beaten handily.



[quote]The Packers are fourth in the league in interceptions, have the lowest forced completion percentage in the NFL, and have the fourth lowest defensive Y/PA, two games a season does not make. If anything Green Bay will come out passing early and force the Ravens to play catchup while going after Flacco.[/quote]
Once again, horribly misleading statistic. Your pass defense stats tend to look pretty good when you face guys like Derek Anderson, Matthew Stafford,and the pick machine Jay Cutler. How'd that stingy pass D hold up against Favre? Oh, and it also managed to make Alex Smith look pretty good a couple weeks ago.

Our pass D is not nearly as good as it looks on paper. Big plays get made in our secondary, absolutely, but plenty of big plays are also given up when the competition is good.

On the other hand, our run defense has been up to most challenges this year ever since Cedric Benson took them to the woodshed.
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[quote name='BMOREHAWAII' date='02 December 2009 - 04:29 AM' timestamp='1259746182' post='300488']
So far Vegas is giving us 3 points, and i have to say that i will take those odds.
[/quote]
so basically its a draw since were the road team.
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[quote name='rzrpack' date='02 December 2009 - 10:31 AM' timestamp='1259767862' post='300580']
And apparently you missed the part of that Buccaneers game where a rookie in his first start picked us apart to the tune of 3 touchdowns. Regardless of bad special teams play, the D managed to give up 24 offensive points to a previously winless team. Enough said.

Like I said several times, you can throw out all the stats you want, but the fact remains that the Lions and Browns, and Bears games are the only reason we rank high statistically in many of those areas.

The bottom line: poor competition is the only reason we have a high ranked defense this season. The only truly great game the D played against good competition is the Cowboys game.




The fact that they sold out to stop Peterson doesn't change the fact that they got absolutely demolished twice by Favre; horrid defense is horrid defense any way you slice it. "That idea" comes from the fact that every time we haven't been able to pressure a quarterback and force big mistakes, we've been beaten handily.




Once again, horribly misleading statistic. Your pass defense stats tend to look pretty good when you face guys like Derek Anderson, Matthew Stafford,and the pick machine Jay Cutler. How'd that stingy pass D hold up against Favre? Oh, and it also managed to make Alex Smith look pretty good a couple weeks ago.

Our pass D is not nearly as good as it looks on paper. Big plays get made in our secondary, absolutely, but plenty of big plays are also given up when the competition is good.

On the other hand, our run defense has been up to most challenges this year ever since Cedric Benson took them to the woodshed.
[/quote]
you are a very astute observer of your team. i would have said the same things. Rodgers is a BEAST, and hes killin it for my fantasy team, but the Defense has been enhanced by the poor competition.
Hell, where would our defense rank if not for two games against the browns giving up a total of 3 points...
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As for Rogers our Blitzing is going to make him fire off queue....Unless they are using Ryan Grant for the running game.....Our Safeties should have a field day...21-3 Ravens!
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[quote name='shaikh015' date='02 December 2009 - 10:54 AM' timestamp='1259769247' post='300595']
As for Rogers our Blitzing is going to make him fire off queue....Unless they are using Ryan Grant for the running game.....Our Safeties should have a field day...21-3 Ravens!
[/quote]
If our blitzes work the way they did against pitt, their RBs are gonna have more receiving yards than anyone, lol.
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[quote name='shaikh015' date='02 December 2009 - 11:54 AM' timestamp='1259769247' post='300595']
As for Rogers our Blitzing is going to make him fire off queue....Unless they are using Ryan Grant for the running game.....Our Safeties should have a field day...21-3 Ravens!
[/quote]
Er...we definitely won't be held to 3 points. In fact, we've never been held to less than 16 since Rodgers has been our QB.

Ravens could very well win this game, but if they do they'll have to score at least 20 or so most likely.
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I agree, the pack wont be held to 3 points. I'm thinking a couple TD's and a couple FG's.Who knows though, we held manning in check and Brady for the most part. Favre got us a few times but most was pass interference penalties shortening the field. We have held some good QB's in check though.

The Packs most recent game was the Lions and Matt Stafford found plenty of holes in the secondary, granted The Transformer tends to make you double team him.
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The Packers o-line has supposedly gotten better with the return of some starters. And even if they can be attacked, the Ravens will likely have to blitz to get pressure. The front four has brought inconsistent pressure all year so Mattison needs to do similar things to what he did against Denever.

One wrinkle I'm tired of seeing though is Lardarius Webb being sent on blitzes. The coverage on this team has been inconsistent at-best all year. I just don't understand why arguably the team's best corner is routinely being asked to rush the QB.

Offensively, Cam has a serious challenge on his hands. Even with top of their top starters out, GB has still has a formidable defense and a ball-hawking secondary. Like the first drive against the Steelers, Cam should use all the weapons the team has.
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As an objective by-stander,
I just want to say (IMHO), I think alot of you guys are kinda hard on the team. Yea there are some problem areas that need work, but that goes for [u]all[/u] of the NFL(saints,colts,bolts...etc.)
[b]Stats[/b] only show you what happened in the past, doesn't mean RAY LEWIS can't open up a can of whoop-a** at any given time.

[center][IMG]http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z300/redoglt8/whoopassravens.gif[/IMG][/center]

You guys came out swingin' hard,... even knocked my bolt down a peg.
Some would say the bolts hadn't got their act together at the time, but... they were still a talented team. Ravens came into SD and took that W from us (spanked I tell ya). We got knocked down a few times,... and I believe we learned from it.

IMHO, I also believe Flacco is better than Rogers. Even playin' on [i]frozen tundra[/i].
(note to H8R: I don't mean to be a prickler, but tundra does [u]not[/u] mean frozen ground)

I want you guys to make the POs so that maybe we can get a little payback, eh.
[center]
Remember this... now dat's funny, I don't care who ya are!

[IMG]http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z300/redoglt8/BARTMEETBEN.gif[/IMG][/center]

Let me close with this.....

[size="3"][color="#800080"][b]Bal[/b][/color] [color="#000000"][b]30[/b][/color]
[color="#008000"][b]GB[/b][/color] [color="#FFFF00"][b]23[/b][/color][/size]

Keep yer stick on the ice,... and remember,... I'm pullin' for ya.


[img]http://forums.dawgbones.com/style_emoticons/dawgbones/cool0044.gif[/img]
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[quote name='HighBoltageMD' date='02 December 2009 - 12:02 PM' timestamp='1259773338' post='300649']
As an objective by-stander,
I just want to say (IMHO), I think alot of you guys are kinda hard on the team. Yea there are some problem areas that need work, but that goes for [u]all[/u] of the NFL(saints,colts,bolts...etc.)
[b]Stats[/b] only show you what happened in the past, doesn't mean RAY LEWIS can't open up a can of whoop-a** at any given time.

[center][IMG]http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z300/redoglt8/whoopassravens.gif[/IMG][/center]

You guys came out swingin' hard,... even knocked my bolt down a peg.
Some would say the bolts hadn't got their act together at the time, but... they were still a talented team. Ravens came into SD and took that W from us (spanked I tell ya). We got knocked down a few times,... and I believe we learned from it.

IMHO, I also believe Flacco is better than Rogers. Even playin' on [i]frozen tundra[/i].
(note to [b]H8R: I don't mean to be a prickler, but tundra does [u]not[/u] mean frozen ground)[/b]

I want you guys to make the POs so that maybe we can get a little payback, eh.
[center]
Remember this... now dat's funny, I don't care who ya are!

[IMG]http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z300/redoglt8/BARTMEETBEN.gif[/IMG][/center]

Let me close with this.....

[size="3"][color="#800080"][b]Bal[/b][/color] [color="#000000"][b]30[/b][/color]
[color="#008000"][b]GB[/b][/color] [color="#FFFF00"][b]23[/b][/color][/size]

Keep yer stick on the ice,... and remember,... I'm pullin' for ya.


[img]http://forums.dawgbones.com/style_emoticons/dawgbones/cool0044.gif[/img]
[/quote]

I was zooming in on the permantly frozen subsoil...any Tundra has Frozen groun. Thats my point, its redundant.
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[quote name='rzrpack' date='02 December 2009 - 10:31 AM' timestamp='1259767862' post='300580']
[/quote]

Having no tape on a player generally makes you a tad bit more susceptible, especially when your ST unit is giving up a very short field.

Nevertheless, keep clinging onto the idea that our rankings are magically the work of an easy schedule, Defensive Index and DVOA takes into account quality of opponent in regards to efficiency of defense so it doesn't really do your argument much credence in simply blaming it all on Favre or playing the Browns.


[quote]Packer vs Steelers offense ranked team faced.
Chi 23-----Ten 14
Cin 17-----Chi 23
STL 24-----Cin 17
Min 5-------SD 15
Det 26-----Det 26
Clev 32----Clev 32
Min 5-------Min 5
TB 29------Den 18
Dal 4-------Cin 17
SF 28-------KC 30
Det 26------Balt 13
______Total______
219----------210
_____AVG________
19.9--------19.1 [/quote]

Is Pittsburgh's statistical performance this year magically the work of an easy schedule as well? We have beat down the competition defensively we are expected to like a stingy defense. The two Vikings games were an aberration not a rule, stop extrapolating it to somehow focus on the entire season (nevermind the lacking of a pass rush at that point).

Green Bay earlier in the season was majorly susceptible to taking coverage sacks; Rodgers has a 128.3 QB rating when blitzed and has a 135.5 QB rating (as well as 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions) on third down, both the highest in the NFL.
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[quote name='FerrariFan87' date='30 November 2009 - 01:20 PM' timestamp='1259605257' post='298637'] He's missed wide open receivers down-field more times than I would like to recall, one of those misses costing us the Bengals game in Baltimore.



[b]How can you say Joe cost us the game because of one overthrown pass. Im pretty sure there were plenty of other reasons why we could have won or lost that game.[/b]
[/quote]

It played a large role because had he hit Clayton, the game would have been out of reach and that final drive doesn't happen.
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[quote name='Ian1471' date='02 December 2009 - 02:17 PM' timestamp='1259777847' post='300698']
Having no tape on a player generally makes you a tad bit more susceptible, especially when your ST unit is giving up a very short field.

Nevertheless, keep clinging onto the idea that our rankings are magically the work of an easy schedule, Defensive Index and DVOA takes into account quality of opponent in regards to efficiency of defense so it doesn't really do your argument much credence in simply blaming it all on Favre or playing the Browns.




Is Pittsburgh's statistical performance this year magically the work of an easy schedule as well? We have beat down the competition defensively we are expected to like a stingy defense. The two Vikings games were an aberration not a rule, stop extrapolating it to somehow focus on the entire season (nevermind the lacking of a pass rush at that point).

Green Bay earlier in the season was majorly susceptible to taking coverage sacks; Rodgers has a 128.3 QB rating when blitzed and has a 135.5 QB rating (as well as 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions) on third down, both the highest in the NFL.
[/quote]
I think you're the only person here who doesn't see that our high rankings are the work of an easy schedule. I think it's hilarious that you'd compare us to Pittsburgh given that

1) With Polamalu playing and healthy, their defense is vastly superior to ours in every way
2) They managed to make Favre look human and hold the same Vikings team that demolished us to 17 points
3) Pittsburgh's defense has it's reputation because of last year. It's already a proven unit that can shut down good/great offenses, so you can't compare it to ours.

We have "beat down the competition"? Really??? Last I checked we didn't beat down the Bengals, the Vikings either time we faced them, the Buccaneers, or the 49ers.

You're the one clinging to a falsehood here. Anyone can see our defense's stats are inflated because of the horrible offenses we have faced. As I said, the only really impressive performance they had this year was against the Cowboys.

It's not a bad defense, but by no means is it truly an elite one either.
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[quote name='rzrpack' date='02 December 2009 - 01:53 PM' timestamp='1259779995' post='300725']
I think you're the only person here who doesn't see that our high rankings are the work of an easy schedule.[/quote]

You ignored my point on defensive efficiency when taking into quality of competition. I prefer my understanding of statistical rankings to be based on reason rather than proof by assertion.

[quote]
1) With Polamalu playing and healthy, their defense is vastly superior to ours in every way[/quote]

Missed the point, I am not comparing the units, I'm comparing the quality of offensive competition; they average out to essentially the same average ranking of offensive unit per competition as us, is there defensive performance a product of their easy competition?

[quote]
2) They managed to make Favre look human and hold the same Vikings team that demolished us to 17 points[/quote]

They also managed to give up 27 points to Kansas City, 28 to San Diego, 20 to a Lions team we outscored 60-12, and lost to an inept Bears team with a QB who leads the league in interceptions.

[quote]
3) Pittsburgh's defense has it's reputation because of last year. It's already a proven unit that can shut down good/great offenses, so you can't compare it to ours.[/quote]

Reputation is not a measure of statistical performance, sorry.

[quote]
We have "beat down the competition"? Really??? Last I checked we didn't beat down the Bengals, the Vikings either time we faced them, the Buccaneers, or the 49ers.[/quote]

Right, so three games of the year out of ten obviously equals ten. The 49ers had negative passing yardage for half the game, held Frank Gore to 1.6 yards per carry after he broke off his 48 yard run, and McCarthy went mega conservative in the second half while 49ers went into the spread formation for the first time all season as Capers played prevent as Green Bay tried to run the clock out while the 49ers had only scored 17. How about the Cowboys game where we held a team average 30.2 points per game over the four game win streak it had amassed to zero until the waning seconds of regulation, or the Lions matchup where the Lions amassed under 200 yards of total offense and went 0/10 on first down, or the defensive domination of the Bears? You can't just cherry pick games to admonish the unit as a whole.

[quote]
You're the one clinging to a falsehood here. Anyone can see our defense's stats are inflated because of the horrible offenses we have faced. As I said, the only really impressive performance they had this year was against the Cowboys.[/quote]

Again, see measure of SOS as applied in the Hog Index and DVOA, they are not a product of an easy schedule.
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I dont care what the record is, who they have played or the current relative humidity of Lambeau fields bathrooms. All I know is the Ravens will be there for a game on Monday night and it should be a dandy. With that said:
[color="#4B0082"][size="6"]GO[/size][/color]

:argdancingravensblueonwkk8:
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[quote name='Ian1471' date='02 December 2009 - 06:19 PM' timestamp='1259799567' post='300994']
You ignored my point on defensive efficiency when taking into quality of competition. I prefer my understanding of statistical rankings to be based on reason rather than proof by assertion.



Missed the point, I am not comparing the units, I'm comparing the quality of offensive competition; they average out to essentially the same average ranking of offensive unit per competition as us, is there defensive performance a product of their easy competition?



They also managed to give up 27 points to Kansas City, 28 to San Diego, 20 to a Lions team we outscored 60-12, and lost to an inept Bears team with a QB who leads the league in interceptions.



Reputation is not a measure of statistical performance, sorry.



Right, so three games of the year out of ten obviously equals ten. The 49ers had negative passing yardage for half the game, held Frank Gore to 1.6 yards per carry after he broke off his 48 yard run, and McCarthy went mega conservative in the second half while 49ers went into the spread formation for the first time all season as Capers played prevent as Green Bay tried to run the clock out while the 49ers had only scored 17. How about the Cowboys game where we held a team average 30.2 points per game over the four game win streak it had amassed to zero until the waning seconds of regulation, or the Lions matchup where the Lions amassed under 200 yards of total offense and went 0/10 on first down, or the defensive domination of the Bears? You can't just cherry pick games to admonish the unit as a whole.



Again, see measure of SOS as applied in the Hog Index and DVOA, they are not a product of an easy schedule.
[/quote]


I made an account specifically to note that rzrpack is getting pwned. You should just stop rzr.
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I've seen alot of people talking about blitzing like crazy. While I definitely think we should dial it up as much as possibe, there's one thing we MUST do...get pressure with the front three/four, in order to keep Rodgers from scrambling and chucking it down field to open receivers. Even though he gets absolutely creamed in many games, his passing yardage and ability to throw down field can't be overlooked. We'll have to keep guys back there to defend the long ball, which they've been throwing with alot of success lately. If we can confuse Peyton, we should be able to confuse Rodgers. His mobility and play making ability are what scare me. Stay alert DBs, and make him pay for any errant decisions this week! Ballhawk, get your boys ready! GO RAVENS!!!!

By the way, if you didn't see it in the other post, here's a cool sack tracker I found for Rodgers this year. I'd love to add to this on Monday night!!!

[url="http://host.madison.com/app/interactive/sacktracker/"]http://host.madison.com/app/interactive/sacktracker/[/url]
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[quote name='bug9999' date='03 December 2009 - 12:28 AM' timestamp='1259814499' post='301200']
I made an account specifically to note that rzrpack is getting pwned. You should just stop rzr.
[/quote]
I'm not getting owned because his arguments are based on statistics skewed by poor competition and comparisons to defensive units that have actually stopped good offenses on a regular basis in the past. That's what he, and apparently you, don't get. Whereas the Steelers have stopped the Favre's and Brady's of the league over the past few years, the only thing this Packer defense has accomplished this year is stopping Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Daunte Culpepper and Derek Anderson.

Some Packer fans are just delusional it seems. They'll brush aside getting demolished twice by the Vikings' passing game and point to stopping the Lions as evidence that we have a "stingy" defense. They're in for a rude awakening if and when we make the playoffs.
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I don't think throwing non-stop blitzes against Aaron Rodgers is a good idea. I think our D-Linemen are good enough to get pressure on their own. Their O-Line kinda sucks.

I'd just hate to lose because Aaron Rodgers gets off a couple of big plays when we're trying to blitz him and our offense can't keep up in the cold.
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[quote]Apparently we have to sack Rogers 4 times....[/quote]

Maybe not 4 times total, but must get pressure at all times.
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[quote name='shaikh015' date='04 December 2009 - 04:02 PM' timestamp='1259960532' post='301999']
I don't think Rogers is going to have anywhere near the career that Brett Favre had.
[/quote]

Who will? Brett Favre is STILL playing football at a high level.

Aaron Rodgers is a good soon-to-be great QB, but he needs a better offensive line right now.
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Aaron Rodgers will eventually be an elite QB. Its not fair at all to compare him to Favre. At the end of the day, he only has 1 ring(so far). I think Rodgers can match or surpass that in his career.

Hes also is one of the best QB's to watch because of his athletic ability. Once he has a good o-line, they can be the best in the NFC. How long will Favre be in their way anyways? Maybe another year?
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