Do Preseason Records Matter?

[darklight1216]

With the third Baltimore Ravens pre-season game nearly upon us, it is time to the address the often asked question: "Does pre-season really matter?"
When approached with this question, many of us are quick to point out that the 2008 Detroit Lions were undefeated in the pre-season, but then went on to lose every game in the regular season. Or we may reflect on the Indianapolis Colts generally abysmal pre-seasons despite their consistently high powered regular season records.
With these results in mind, it would seem that the pre-season records ultimately have no effect on a team's win loss record, but is this true?

Two Minute Warning probes this issue in an eleven year study of pre-season records and their corellation to regular season wins.
Click the link for the full article
http://www.twominutewarning.com/doespreseasonmatter.htm

For those of you who find that clicking a link is entirely too much effort, the highlight of their study is this:

The preseason records are often an indicator of a team's regular season win-loss record. Overall, teams which win three or four pre-season games are likely to have success in the regular season. Conversely, those lackluster teams which are winless in [s]fake football[/s] the pre-season usually find themselves at a disadvantage in the regular season as well.

So what does this mean for the Baltimore Ravens? Two Minute Warning explains their findings teams who posted 10 or more wins in the previous season:

[quote]
The good prior-year teams end up winning over two games fewer the next season (the “nowhere to go but down” syndrome), but the number of preseason wins does not seem to be too important. In fact the optimal number seems to be 2 preseason victories, any more than that and the chance of another 10+ win season is reduced. Recently in fact a 3+ win preseason tally has been a definite negative.[/quote]

The effect of the pre-season is most strongly felt by teams which won 7-9 games in the previous year. However, I thought this might still be something interesting to consider as we approach our next pre-season game.

[Moderator 2]

I just want to win the home pre-season games, the stadium is like a big deflated balloon when the team loses. I am more concerned with keeping the team injury free. I cringed every time the franchise QB takes off and runs in pre-season. It never really mattered before this year.

[Alexir]

They do and they don't matter. The game tomorrow matters because it basically will be a look at all of our starters in action for 3 quarters. That being said we would hope to win that game. But If we end up scoring 24-14 in the 4th and their back ups beat our backups and they get the W I wouldnt really worry about it because at least the starters executed. But then again that would show our backups suck....hmm, I am over thinking this, so I will basically say Yes they matter and No there isnt a pre season 4-0 curse.

[William Murderface]

The record in the pre-season or the preseason games themselves dont really matter. I am more worried about watching the game and seeing that our team plays well. Well doesnt always equal wins. Plus like we saw in the Jets game the coaching staff is not really worried too much about Wins and Losses but more concerned about seeing the limitations of our team when the games dont matter. In the Jets game we threw it all over the place and didnt run the ball nearly as much as we would have during the regular season as an example.

[bennyb357]

[quote name='William Murderface' date='29 August 2009 - 06:42 AM' timestamp='1251542520' post='226151']
The record in the pre-season or the preseason games themselves dont really matter. I am more worried about watching the game and seeing that our team plays well. Well doesnt always equal wins. Plus like we saw in the Jets game the coaching staff is not really worried too much about Wins and Losses but more concerned about seeing the limitations of our team when the games dont matter. In the Jets game we threw it all over the place and didnt run the ball nearly as much as we would have during the regular season as an example.
[/quote]

Agreed. There's definitely a lot to look at in a Preseason game, some of which is relevant, the rest, not so much. The absence of game plans, the trial and error plays, and the fact that the starting lineups are in and out are all valid reasons not to take these games too seriously.

Nice find though darklight, it was an interesting read. Despite that though I think the figures are just too prone to bust. It may be true that a majority of teams have a reflection of their Preseason records, but I think it's by chance and the margin for error is just far too large for every team to be affected in the same manner. Plus there are only 5 different outcomes (0wins, 1 win, 2 wins, etc.) and to pigeonhole each team in this way is bound to have its anomalies. Who knows what team(s) will be the exception? If we go 4-0 after having a winning season last year, according to this study, hopefully we'll prove to be the irregularity.. if there even is one.

[FerrariFan87]

2008-2009 Detroit Lions: 4-0 Preseason; 0-16 Regular Season... need I say more?

[SaVaGe]

Lions were a freak occurrence but lets put it this way, the more games you win the more confidence you have.

[FlaccoFlicker]

I want to win everytime the ravens hit the field preseason or not but also hope preseason gets thru without injuries.regular season to so yeah preseason matters to me......i was yelling during that jets game.

[Purple Nurple]

[quote name='FerrariFan87' date='29 August 2009 - 08:59 AM' timestamp='1251550756' post='226163']
2008-2009 Detroit Lions: 4-0 Preseason; 0-16 Regular Season... need I say more?
[/quote]

Yes, like "I'm oblivious to the fact we did the same thing and won the Lombardi"

[quote name='SaVaGe' date='29 August 2009 - 09:47 AM' timestamp='1251553665' post='226178']
Lions were a freak occurrence but lets put it this way, the more games you win the more confidence you have.
[/quote]

I agree. I'd love to win this game tonight because of so many starters involved. IMO, That will be the confidence cadapult into the regular season. No one really cares about game 4.

[PSU RAVEN]

I am more interested about the score while the starters are in the game. Still not sure how we can lose a game that does not count??

[Marc2k6]

Pre-Season is not about winning or losing, it is about offense, defense instillation as well as finding out how your rookies and free agents respond in game situation vs. other NFL teams. At the end of the day if you are looking to get good evaluation of your team, if it was about winning you would not see teams going for 2 at the end of game, instead the would go for the tie.

[MKdave]

I don't think preseason win/loss records matter. You shouldn't use the scores or results to project how well the team is going to do, but you can look at individual performances to learn things about individual players . I mean, it could turn out that what you learn about a player in preseason is completely wrong (Yamon Figurs last year, Gerome Sapp the year before that), but it's a more useful thing to look at than final scores.

[Ravens Lover]

Well they might not count, but it's at least nice to see some football again.

[darklight1216]

[quote name='FerrariFan87' date='29 August 2009 - 08:59 AM' timestamp='1251550756' post='226163']
2008-2009 Detroit Lions: 4-0 Preseason; 0-16 Regular Season... need I say more?
[/quote]
Didn't [i]I[/i] say that?

[K-Dog]

symantics. Matter, yes, count, no.

They [i][b]MATTER[/b][/i] a ton. Momentum, hype, crowd excitement, team morale, city pride, team pride, attitude, you get my drift.

Over all the games [i][b]count[/i][/b] for nothing.

[Purple Pain]

No record doesn't matter. Of course you'd like to win the games. But these games are more for evaluating your rookies and guys fighting for roster spots.

[J-man]

Ask the Lions who went 4-0 in the preseason last season.

[MagicianCamille]

So basically that study confirms that, no, they don't matter.

Now we know!

[cursona pirate]

its all a coincidence i think!
the lions are weird like that!

[Alexandra]

I think that if you win a preseason game it shows how good the back-ups are [i]usually[/i] so if the team had a bad pre-season and a bad season you should look at the injuries and the same if they had a good pre-season and a good season. However if the pre season was good and season was bad then I don't know what to think.... maybe the starters suck

[darklight1216]

Maybe you guys have alreay seen this, and maybe you haven't.

How important are preseason wins?
Every AFC team that finished first in their division in the preseason also won the regular-season division race last year. Miami, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and San Diego were the best at the end of the summer and in January, too. Not one NFC team that finished on top in the preseason won the regular-season race. In fact, Detroit went undefeated in the preseason (4-0) before embarking on to their infamous 0-16 campaign. You can spin preseason success any way you want.

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/News/Articles/2009/08/Ravens_at_Panthers_Game_Recap.aspx

I thought it was very interesting.

[jfc13]

Heh. Interesting coincidence.

[POE]

Somebody else said this, but it needs to be said again..we went 4-0 in the preseason our Super Bowl year, so IMO it's all just coincidence. Preseason does matter, just not the records..it's all about evaluation and preparation. However, these guys are Pros and nobody likes to lose, ever!

[mhead66]

In the last 3 weeks:

Detroit beat Indy and Atlanta
Cleveland beat Tennessee
Cincinnati beat New England
Oakland beat Dallas

If these teams meet in the regular season, I don't think the results will be the same...

[Raven07]

if my memory precedes me...... just ask the 2000 Baltimore Ravens whom also went 4-0 in the pre-season, so anything can and will happen, yes the lions were a total failure last year but hey, we went 4-0 in 2000 and went to AND won the SB so anything is possible