CorvusMagnus

Earl Thomas could probably play CB if he had a mind, but the Seahawks are smart enough to keep him at FS. He provides the security that allows the rest of the secondary to take risks and create turnovers.

I think Jack and Ramsey are going to trade spots all the way up to the draft. I think Jack has the higher ceiling, but Ramsey feels more like a Raven pick. That said, I am going to seriously freak out if the Brown's spot doesn't go QB (either through the browns or a trade).

Agreed,

Even if Pitta does the smart thing (retires) and Boyle never plays another down we are worlds away from the Steeler's TE situation (although their WR depth certainly softens that blow).

I already expected Williams to permenently knock Boyle down the depth chart if he put in the effort to fix his conditioning. He was already the best rookie TE in the league (and a top 15 overall) despite his lack of experience and meh conditioning. Now Boyle isn't even in question and I think Gilmore needs to watch his back, although I'm sure the Raven's would be more then happy to go with more 2 TE sets given an excuse..

I'm having a hard time putting my finger on when or why Hargreaves (along with every other corner in this class) had his fall from grace on these boards but he definitely has.

I don't think anybody is arguing that he wont be a good player, but the expectation at 6 is great not good. It might be the Haden/Web type of frame leading us to wonder whether he has the sand to play his part against the run and stay healthy in the AFCN, it might just be the after images of the Broncos pass rush.

Either way taking Hargreaves over Jack there feels like trading a great player for a good one, even if it is at a position of greater need. Plus, I agree with you that Spence is also a better choice in that scenario.

A lot of people underestimate how hard it is to take BPA, especially with a high draft pick after a bad season. First, you have to put yourself in a position where you have no make-or-break needs (or as close to it as possible), then you sometimes need to be willing to take your lumps when you pick players that put strength atop strength because they have the genuine potential to become one of the best who has ever played. This is that kind of draft, Jack and Thompson are those kinds players, and Ozzie is that kind of GM. Well done

I can't point to anything specific but Arthur's biggest issue was probably getting stuck behind two quality players with good durability and no glaring weaknesses at the ILB position. His next biggest issue was earning the coaches trust in the run game, which will probably be the biggest hurdle for Jack as well. An ILB who can't at least keep 90% of running plays to short yards isn't going to see the field very often or the other team will just run at him all game long. At least that is the impression I got watching him coming into the season at a higher playing weight then the last.

Just finished watching a few videos of Derrick Brooks and I definitely see what you mean. The weight is pretty close and he was clearly a coverage machine (most of the highlights were on pass plays and his interception count was rediculous for an ILB). Pretty exciting comp considering Brooks has a good shot at Canton someday soon.

The idea of an ILB who you could trust against everything from slot receivers to burners is really interesting. It reminds me of a play in the last superbowl where Von Miller was able to keep up with a WR on a go route down the sideline. Not many LB could make that play, but Jack could.

In the unlikely event that Mr. Jack makes it past 5 teams (especially the Cowboys), there appears to be growing faction that would like to draft him (especially if Ramsey/Buckner/Bosa are gone and Jaylon Smith heals slowly).

The most common comp I have heard for Jack is an upgraded Navarro Bowman in terms of build (relatively short and slight for the position) and how he is used (cover specialist in tandem with another larger ILB).

Do you think this comp is fair? Obviously Jack is a superior athlete and an inch taller, but he's even lighter then Bowman who is already small by ILB standards.

In the situation this mock lays out it is Mr. Jack all the way.

Granted the combine can still change things (for either candidate), but right now I'll take a game changing jack-of-all-trades (pun intended) with consistent production against high level competition over a player a great first step but only decent strength, major character concerns and no recent tape against quality teams.

1 hour ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Well saying our best first rounder since Joe is easy when the only pick we had outside of the top 24 was 17th and this year were picking at 6th lol. 

 

And it could also be a stretch to just assume that he can make the conversion and just tailor himself to your needs, I like his rushing ability but I haven't seen enough to make me say "this traditional LB is also a top 10 edge rusher". 

 

And the Gurley comparison wasn't about when he can suit up, it's the severity of the knee. They overplayed Gurley and his knee and yeah he came back and played lights out, but what's to say the injury is worse than is being led on and were depending on this guy to be an olb for us but he is too busy rehabbing all year to work on the transition.. And this isn't conjecture either, Smith will not hAve enough time to rehab, adjust to the pros, and switch to edge rusher, all at once, if we draft him with this in mind then we are dreaming in the FO and asking way too much of a guy who is taking his first nfl reps in a knee brace and likely misses ota's and probably training camp as well

We are fortunate as fans that neither 3/4 DE nor OLB are true, immediate needs despite fragility and turnover at those positions. If this were not the case then Deforest Buckner would get the nod from me as Jaylon Smith's early contributions will indeed be limited by injuries and the complexities of learning the position. Barring sudden injury (which we can't really plan for apart from creating depth), the Raven's can afford to let Smith develop into  starter over the course of the year.

I think the mix of pass and run defence capabilities that Smtih provides are much harder to come by at any point in the draft then even a top shelf DE like Buckner. Regardless of whether Jaylon Smith becomes a good rusher or a great one, he provides the kind of positional flexibility that helps the DC disguise his plays and counter modern high tempo offences.

Now if you honestly think Buckner can become more then a quality run blocker who can get regular sacks through single teams, I would feel better about this pick. Unfortunately I don't see Buckner blowing through defences fast enough to beat a Brady to the punch, or defeating double teams with frequency. My homework this week is to go through DraftBreakdown's footage of him, and maybe some Calais Campbell film if I can find it.

If you are talking about Bosa I definitely hear you about the Watt comparisons or worse other well known rushers like Von Miller. I do think there is something to the people who compare him to Ryan Karrigan if he plays at 3/4 OLB. They are similar in the sense that they are big, heavy OLBs (Bosa especially) that rely on strength, punch and motor for rush production. I think Bosa is the better prospect but both can be neutralized as a solo rusher (at least on the outside) by high tempo offenses. This puts them on a different tier from rushers like Donald or Miller that can disrupt plays before they even begin. Unfortunately, all the Donald/Miller prospects in this draft (Spence and Nkemdiche come to mind) have MUCH lower floors, so taking Bosa over either is perfectly understandable.

This is not the draft for the Ravens to take a WR in the first without a trade-back, period. I don't care if another team takes Treadwell top 10 (and he is the only one who is sniffing the top 10 right now), that is their business. Unless he blows up the combine his ceiling is probably a poor man's Dez Bryant, and that just isn't good enough at 6. I understand that high floor players at hard-to-draft positions are a comfort; but Treadwell still needs to have the ceiling to match up against the Jack/Smith/Ramsey/Buckners of the world. In the second WR becomes a stronger possibility but that is also where first year starters (or frequent backups) at LT start to thin. Unless we can retain Osemele (unlikely) Joe can't survive another year with 25% Monroe and 75% Hurst, and recent history suggests that is exactly what would happen if the season started today. Moreover we can band-aid WR in free agency fairly easily (we certainly have before), we cannot do the same at LT with any expectation of success (continuity is critical even with veteran linemen).

22 minutes ago, edthehead said:

i think we take a WR if not rd1 then 2, 

for me 3 becomes a project and HARB, said no more projects.

Ed, I see what you're saying but at the end of the day we are no worse off at receiver in 2016 then we were in 2015 after the draft. With good luck on injuries and player development we could have an above average receiver corp (TE and WR) without a single extra body. Between that and free agency, WR doesn't become an ironclad need until 2017, and that is precisely where we want to be when we draft. Only bad teams let themselves get cornered into picking by need.

Additionally, the the day a team stops taking "projects" at any position is the day a team has given up on being successful in the draft. What makes the Steelers great at drafting receivers isn't the ability to land obvious picks at 1 and 2, its the ability to convert "projects" in the 2, 3 and even 4 into productive players.

Hey all,

Given how much I enjoy reading these, I figured I'd take a shot at making one before the combine. Shout out to all the posters on this forum (and others) whose ideas I'm stealing to put this together, couldn't have done it without you.

-1 Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame:
I didn't watch football when knee injuries still ended careers, but that age is long gone, especially among young players. Knee recoveries still aren't a sure thing but this placement assumes that the early prognosis of damage and recovery (pre-season 2016) are correct or Jaylon may well fall out of the first round entirely. This is a gutsy pick given the reduced looks that the Ravens will have (no combine or pro-day), but these are the bets that Ozzie built his reputation on winning.

What we get in return is one of the two best linebackers in the draft, with the best height/build to succeed in our system at a position of need (3/4 OLB). A lot has been said about the need for "pass rush" but a true 3-down OLB (like Suggs) opens the play book in ways a pure rusher can't. Jaylon already has the rarest ingredients for a OLB (explosion, bend, lateral agility, straight-line speed) the remaining questions (other then the injury) are size and power. Like it or not, most 3/4-OLBs transition from other positions, and that process is never a sure thing. Jaylon will approach that transformation from the opposite place of Suggs (4/3 OLB vs. 4/3 DE), but has at least as much potential.

-2 Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Big hat tip to Jacquouille for this one, Spriggs is a borderline round one tackle that will fall to the second in a very good class. Spriggs is a long and lean tackle that will excel in zone combo blocking due to his strengths (movement and mental awareness) and weaknesses (functional strength and pad level). I am actually encouraged by the fact that he has only started at  LT for two years (converted TE), because it suggests he still has plenty of room to grow in terms of technique and understanding of the position.

Spriggs would not be a safe pick for a team without a starting left tackle due to his weaknesses as a run blocker, his lack of functional strength and the complexities of NFL blocking. That said, Spriggs will at worst be an upgrade to Hurst in his rookie year and transform in his second after a full year of NFL conditioning. I don't think Spriggs will ever be an elite run blocker, but he can be at least average when paired with a quality guard, but he will be is an above-average pass blocker against a variety of rushers, which is the most important expectation at LT.

-3 Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio
Probably wishful thinking as Miller is riding an avalanche of hype after the senior bowl, but this might still be possible with a trade-up or if teams are sceptical of his extensive injury history. Frankly even in the late-2nd and early-3rd this is still a scary, high-risk, high-reward type of pick.

Miller is a boom/bust prospect with the potential for a Stefon Diggs-like detonation (for better or worse) as a professional. He is an exceptional athlete (albeit a touch lean) with the body control and intelligence to become an superb route runner (think OBJ sans god-hands). His biggest knock is a lack of experience at WR (former QB) and too much experience with the trainer's table. Unfortunately for him, his path to starting most likely leads through punt-returning and the slot, roles he may not survive.

I project a Campenero like career trajectory for Miller in that his success is almost guaranteed if he can stay healthy 10+ games out of the season. The difference is that Miller's ceiling is more like aBrown then an Edelman.