FlocksGottaFeed

Ravens Front Office 20 Years of Success?

Absolutely according to the numbers. Within our 1^st 20 years, no team has performed better.
 

“I will argue that the Ravens philosophies for their player personnel decisions have contributed greatly to the success of this organization.” - from How do Ravens’ First 19 Years Stack Up? - Kirk Stoffel

Posted February 23, 2015 in Street Talk

http://russellstreetreport.com/2015/02/23/street-talk/baltimore-ravens-great-first-19-nfl-seasons/

Some may or may not find front office strategies to be the key to success, but without question franchises that do have formed legacy. Ours has rewritten it in less than 20 years.

We always seem to lose rhis compared to the other afcn teams but win in jan.

Agreed. The thing is when we have signed the Jacobys, Pollards, Boldins (and more recently) Smith Sr, Daniels, Forsett very few outside of our fan base see those moves as significant at the time. Luke warm acceptence at first then...BOOM! . They see it by the post season.

We've made similar moves his offseason with players that are relatively unheralded that a lot will see the brilliance of it only when the playoffs kick-off.

Was thinking the same thing -- who cares? Underwear Olympics are over, now the season "played on paper" goes on for 6 months. Mindless speculation that means nothing until they hit the field. How many on this site picked the Ravens to finish 3rd in the division last year? I know I didn't, and I sure as <devil's residence> didn't pick Pittsburgh to win it.

I honestly didn't pick that outcome either (My pick: 1 - Ravens, 2 - Steelers, 3 - Bengals, 4 - Browns 2014). That said, it was before the loss of starting RB, TE, CB and undetermined FS return, etc. That's exactly why Mindless speculation has no place here.

You see, what FOs do is never mindless. There's a science to every move they make if they are even average at their jobs. That can never be taken for granted. However, you have to admit that the moves made in the offseason play a significant role in outcomes (next man up, coaching, scheme, etc.). That's all FO work, as well.

Last off-season I completely stayed-away from off-season 'speculation', but this off-season I decided to study it more after reading several articles about how great teams become great teams. The work of FOs lay the foundation. Without that who are the players that you tune-in to or buy tickets to watch?

Why are some divisions/teams consistantly ranked higher than others? Games are won or loss on the field, true. However, FO moves have been proven to be the key to sustained success. That's just one reason to care for fans. Name one team with a 'Mindless' FO who have actually won even one playoff game, recently.

I can't wait for the 1st kick-off, but until then, I wanted to  show an appreciation and study of those putting in the off-season work (often long hours). They are just as critical to the team as the players and in some cases, more so.

I hope this helped.

Glad we missed out on Housler.. put's the pressure on the FO to get Gresham or trade for a quality TE. I really hope we don't trade up in the 2nd round for Maxx Williams, he's overrated because of how weak this TE class is.. he could be a good TE but he's not worth the early 2nd round price tag. Would rather draft elsewhere in the 2nd and maybe trade a 4th for an established TE like Fleener who is now behind Dwayne Allen on the depth chart. 

 

I think we regret not going after Daniels harder in hindsight, he was a good fit and had chemistry with Joe...now we're in an awkward situation with a depleted FA pool and a weak draft class at TE. Gresham or trade looks like the only options we're left with. The value just isn't there in the draft unless Williams somehow falls to our original 2nd.

Keep the faith brother. There are still options at TE available that we haven't considered. Who would have thought that Justin would have done the things that he did. Our FO never panics. They find diamonds in unknown places.

For example: The Lions chose to go in a new direction with TE last seasons. They've committed to 2nd year player Fauria over Pettigrew last season. Pettigrew's production isn't that far from what we got from Daniels last season.

                      Starts     Receptions    Yards         Average      Long         TD

Pettigrew     14           41                  416           10.1             31             2

Daniels         13           48                  527           11.0             39             4

When you add Joe Flacco and our scheme to Pettigrew's potential (700+ yard seasons before new scheme change) he could possibly match Daniels output and/or surpass that output. If I'm Housler, I'd feel more comfortable with the Ravens than signing with the Browns. But that said, there are still Pettigrew-types around the league that can match our needs.

The "Board" - AFCN Teams

As teams get closer to the draft there are differences in approaches. Pre-draft reports have the Ravens and Bengals as taking "Best Player Available" and the Browns and Steelers targeting immediate needs regardless of BPA. I think that those reports sometimes don't emphasis the most important aspect of pre-draft planning - The Board. This is most likely why top mock drafts only get 0-25% of their predictions (true: some get 0%).

Take for example 2 of the similar needs of the Ravens and Bengals this season -TE and CB. Once each gets to draft in the 1st round, will they pass on the BPA at those positions for the overall BPA left in the draft? Most likely not if the BPA position doesn't fit a need. That said, if Bengals takes a 3rd BPA TE (1 and 2 already gone) with their 1st pick and a 5th BPA CB is still on the board for the Ravens - I'm confident that the Ravens would counter by taking that 5th BPA CB simply because the talent poll for CBs is overwhelmingly more favorable to TE BPAs comparably. That 5th CB is most likely much higher than that 3rd TE on the overall BPA board.

Don't want to predict outcomes, because they literally change on the fly. However when it comes down to making those moves, front offices are playing chess not checkers even in the cases of BPA. The "Board" rules.

Will the Ravens continue to go after a FA TE (i.e. - Housler) before the draft to replace Owen Daniels' production? Housler is meeting with the Browns today. They have a wheel barrow of money to spend (or overpay him). We gave an offer (early April).

Will the Browns over spend again, will the Ravens match or trade 1 comp pick to seal the deal or will the Ravens find an 'equal' FA TE before the draft to match Owen's productivity? Are there FA TEs still available?

For example: The Lions chose to go in a new direction with TE last seasons. They've committed to 2nd year player Fauria over Pettigrew last season. Pettigrew's production isn't that far from what we got from Daniels last season.

                      Starts     Receptions    Yards         Average      Long         TD

Pettigrew     14           41                  416           10.1             31             2

Daniels         13           48                  527           11.0             39             4

When you add Joe Flacco and our scheme to Pettigrew's potential (700+ yard seasons before new scheme change) he could possibly match Daniels output and/or surpass that output. If I'm Housler, I'd feel more comfortable with the Ravens than signing with the Browns. But that said, there are still Pettigrew-types around the league that can match our needs.

Who makes the better moves?

By this time next year - both will be a done deal. No problem.

AFNC Planning more Chess Moves:

Ravens are Exercising Their Normal Patience – Whether from a late trades and/or early draft picks, the Ravens seem confident that a TE and deep threat receiver can be procured. If so, all additional talents will come from current young players from the present roster already in development and the 2015 draft.

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/videos/videos/Full_Interview_La_Canfora_Talks_Key_Ravens_Needs/4bf0d81b-47d9-49fc-8e8b-16370bdef79e

My take-away from this: I agree with those who feel that the Ravens will most likely trade-for (a 2015 pick) a veteran TE and/or get a late FA deal done for a young TE (NFL minimum contract who's showed potential, but has gone pretty much under the radar, because of team and scheme. As far as receiver goes, they'll get a 1st or 2nd draft pick to stretch the field with no problem. That said, they're needing just 1 rookie starter from the draft and 1 FA no matter if Pitta returns or not..

Steelers Fans want an Elite CB in the 1st Round – The Steelers FO leans more toward LB. Steelers haven't expressed any new found confidence in practice squad Dbs although feeling that every other practice position on the team can produce a possible starter and/or roster-ready backup player.

http://www.steelers.com/news/article-1/Who-will-the-Steelers-draft/dfcc3bec-697d-4c69-878b-5e9f863dad4c

My take-away from this: I agree with insiders that say they have to, "Get young fast." From the looks of things they have to hit home-runs in the draft or elevate hidden-talent from the practice squad. That said, they'll need to field 3 rookie starters on defense or find diamonds in the rough from somewhere.

Bengals Recent FA Signings - Bengals are the only team to bring back 3 ex-players during this off-season.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Bengals-re-sign-Josh-Johnson-for-backup-QB-derby/da7e8c87-e19b-4a40-88d3-c4991c2e4920

My take-away from this: I agree with insiders that are saying that there will be very little scheme 'surprises' on offense or defense this season. They appear to be focused on upgrading here out predominately through the draft. That said, they will need at least 2 rookie standouts in critical needs positions and hope that QB play improves.

Browns Counting Heavily on the Draft - Browns looking for at least 3 starters from this year's draft and also want to establish their defense to be the "The Bullies of the AFCN”. Team expressing lack of trust in Johnny Football and GM will be suspended for 4 early games.

http://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/article-5/ABCs-of-the-Cleveland-Browns-offseason/0d7eeae2-7fd2-4284-bb45-f671782da3b4

My take-away from this: I agree with insiders that imply that this could turn into crisis management in over-drive early.

edit - Bengals draft

Conan. GO Urs!!! Do your thing! The theory of relativity just got more relative, again. BMORE relative!!!

What a good look for the team and Ravens organization. Glad you're Raven

This has to be one of the most difficult determinations to make, because you've got teams that are paying big bucks to QBs and some who aren't; teams that have won recently and one who hasn't; rosters at different stages of maturation, etc. Then, there's the question of who is being lost, which must be viewed along with the successors who may be in place.This is a real apples-oranges question -- interesting, but not really fair.

Great post. Thanks. Agree about the complexity of determining each team's status as the off-season continues, but I think it's a fair question to ask as conditions change. It's more of a study of AFCN FO movements (current likes and/or dislikes) not a final determination by any measure. Opinions (and votes) should change several times during the process (if being objective) for a lot of the reasons that you've stated. Thank you.

Some fans don't add-in each team's maturation stage to assess what a great or bad FO move is. I think it's critical.

Example: Whether a team has a reliable franchise QB or not is a tangible barometer of how that FO is addressing the off-season. Addressing Franchise QBs: We'll be playing non-conference opponents defenses that have recorded several QB injuries (severe and minor) - FO is tasks with insuring viable backups, complimentary weapons are in place, etc.

Addressing Non-Franchise QBs: FO is tasks with insuring viable backups, complimentary weapons are in place, etc., BUT may have more need to trade for and/or draft a potential franchise QB or 'super' upgrade his weapons with more urgency.

imho - Every FO goes through a new maturation processes each season, as well. What they start-out with before the off-season (contracts, injuries, cap space, etc.) should play a significant role on how that maturation is progressing.

It's all subjective strategies and 'changeable' opinion-grading, but never intended to be unfair.

OF COURSE it's by Adam Schein. While I find his articles to be entertaining, I've always felt that we thrive when we're doubted. But it's nice to get some respect where respect is due. Truthfully, I don't need to read this article to know that Oz is a top-3 GM in the league. True Ravens fans know this. Not saying to agree with everything Ozzie does, but the results in the Flacco Era speak for themselves. Just my two cents.

Thanks. Absolutely agreed. There's never been a doubt in my mind that our FO has proven to be an elite team. What I really wanted to do in this thread is to make it a study of the process. What they do to achieve those successful results and how their methodology (although pretty consistent) slightly adapts each year to address our AFCN competition as well as non-divisional teams on our schedule.

Earlier in the thread the poll took on a lot of changes. That is what I was hoping for. It should as moves are being made. I hope that continues. But at the end-of-the-day, I believe the Ravens will 'checkmate' the division and the rest of the league as they've done consistently.

The NFL Network: Ozzie and the Ravens are about to eclipse not just the AFCN FO Chess Match, but the entire NFL, once again.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000483184/article/ravens-in-super-bowl-50-do-your-draft-thing-ozzie-newsome

We're looking at a draft and possible late FA/trade moves to being a heavy Super Bowl 50 contender. There's been a sudden burst of new confidence lately with league insiders for the Ravens FO. Maybe this off-season is looking special or maybe...just maybe our FO office has always been seen as the 'special' blueprint to success.

They're simply calling it, "The wizardry of Oz..." Yes.

.

AFCN FO Chess Match Update:

Gino Gradkowski Trade: “By trading Gradkowski, the Ravens net about $1 million in salary-cap space. That should give them about $7 million in cap room.” - Jamison Hensley, ESPN Ravens reporter

With that recent move NFL insiders have moved the Ravens to the top position within the AFC North currently in the off-season. When considering the skillful maneuvers made by Ozzie and the crew to address needs vs cap room with a no-panic/patient approach, it's easy to see why the rest of the league feels that the Ravens' FO sets the standard for how it's done. imho – Ozzie is brilliant! I'm glad he's our man.

Draft Picks, Cap and Needs Update:

         PICKS                     CAP SPACE                                      NEEDS

1. Ravens 10 picks     $7 million under the salary cap         TE, WR, CB, OLB
2. Bengals 9 picks      $20 million under the salary cap        G, CB, TE, ILB, DE
3. Browns 10 picks     $27.5+ million under the salary cap   RT, C, DE, ILB, WR
4. Steelers 8 picks      $6.5 million under the salary cap       LT, OLB, CB, RB, SS

Now, if you're playing GM and are just considering what is needed currently to put the most competitive team possible on the field – which team do you think has the better chance of doing that so far?

Conditions may change with late FA signings, more trades and the draft, but there's no question that each move is critical as this 2015 chess match continues.

The more I follow the way Oz and the crew operate - the more I appreciate it. No panic, no nonsense and cool as the otherside of the pillow is why they've led the way year in and year out.. Tru hit it did on: This dude has 7 years in a Kubiak system (a system that we're staying close to this season) and is the right player at the right price. Welcome to the Black and Purple Mark and Matt.

In Oz I still trust.

edit - Mark and Matt

Never was a fan of Schaub, but have always been a HUGE fan of Ozzie and Harb. If they did the deal - the deal is good.

In Oz I still trust.

Class act apology. Thanks for posting from one of those 'radial guys' who supported him during the tough times.

When some fans were concerned with the past sack numbers with Eagles I posted:
"As far as those past sack totals (used as an uncertainty motivation bullet point) of Castillo's OL coaching are concerned...McNabb and Vick's extended plays/risk taking had more to do with those numbers. Castillo has done nothing, but make Pro Bowl linemen no matter where he's stopped. Even with the Eagles."

and

"I believe those sack numbers from 2013 will go down and the run will be revived, as well."

I almost forgot about how some fans were calling for his head. I'm proud he's had the chance to prove his worth, again. Thanks Cas and thanks Omerta for posting. Class act.

NFL Network's Gregg Rosenthal call the Haloti Ngata trade the 4th "Biggest Surprise of 2015's Offseason"?

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000481781/article/eight-biggest-surprises-of-2015-offseason

Surprise? With our cap space? He should read our boards a little more. As bad as I wanted him to stay, he was given potential signing numbers as early as Feb. 2014 and had to do what he felt was right for him and his family. If any 'real' surprise came out of the deal was how our front office was able to salvage more cap space and relevant draft picks out of the trade to secure added talent.

To add: Getting the breakout ProBowler, leading 2014 NFL rusher per-carry (Justin Forsett) to unselfishly accept less money to stay-in Baltimore along with restructuring Webb and Sizzle (a rare NFL contract move) That was impressive.

edit - Justin Forsett, Webb and Sizzle moves.

The AFC North Ranked 2nd Behind NFC West Going into the Draft

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000481669/article/divisional-power-rankings

The last time we matched-up against that division (2011) the Ravens won 5 of 6 games (Only being upset by Seahawks mid-season). This time around, I think the true "Toughest Division in the League" will be established without question.

As far as the pre-season standings in the AFCN goes - the draft and late moves will most likely determine who puts the best team on the field for the opener.

NFL Insiders say that the Ravens are lacking offensive weapons. Similar 2011 off-season (after free agency) reports were stated the year they eventually won their 2nd Super Bowl in 2012. The Eagles went all-in that year, too. We beat 5 of the nonconference teams we'll be playing this season. Ravens philosophy was the same as this years "...Free Agency doesn't win games." Which brings the AFCN into the draft and late off-season trades/free agent moves.

With several AFCN teams needing CBs, FS and SS who will win these guys?:

Goldson from Ole Miss 1st Round CB

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2411159-best-kept-secret-cb-baltimore-ravens-must-steal-on-day-2-of-2015-nfl-draft

P.J. Williams from Florida St 1st Round CB

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000481329/article/pj-williams-to-visit-baltimore-ravens

With several AFCN teams needing young receivers who will win these guys?:
 

Sammie Coates from Auburn 3rd Round Receiver

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2411159-best-kept-secret-cb-baltimore-ravens-must-steal-on-day-2-of-2015-nfl-draft

DeVante Parker from Louisville 3rd Round Receiver

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000481798/article/report-louisvilles-devante-parker-to-visit-with-ravens

With some AFCN teams needing back-up and/or starting QB positions upgrades, who will be satisfied with present roster or try other options?:

Wennington & Renner FA Backup QB

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Will-Ravens-Add-Veteran-Backup-QB/a7dad9a6-c138-49ed-9bf0-7acb7181e932

This is high-stakes chess in the AFCN and never believe that the NFCW and AFCW aren't following every move. We dominated those conferences the last time before we won a Super Bowl..

Bleacher Report Power Rankings After Free-Agency

According to their current rankings:

1. Steelers
2. Bengals
3. Ravens
4. Browns

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2403330-updated-afc-north-power-rankings-after-nfl-free-agency

They made a few good points about the AFC North's level of play (3 Playoff Teams in 2014 and even predicted the same for 2015). However, when comparing FA moves this off-season they completely left-out the importance of "What You're Working With" - (Cap) in order to rank. Who got more bang for the buck.

I think when you consider the picks that a team adds to their draft, player salary restructures, value vet resignings, team critical needs after FA, etc. - The rankings get more true to form.

For Example: imho - The Ravens would be; at the very least, in the 2nd position once considering the low cap space they went into free-agency with and the players they couldn't retain because of it. During all that movement they were still able to keep a competitive roster in place and have more draft picks available than any other division team to add more young talent (WR, TE, CB. etc.). The Steelers also started-out with little money to work with, but after FA they have more holes to fill with more hard-to-fill, critical needs particularly on defense and less to do it with.

That said, the Ravens are in the best position so far going into the draft to me. No check-mate yet, but I think the strategy is sound. 

When you consider where each AFCN team started-out regarding available Cap and follow how that money is being used/saved, the FO strategy becomes even more important. So far, avalible cap has been added to teams via trades, releases, extensions and restructuring. Below is an approximated list of Cap Hits based on some current moves through free agency.

. 

       Cap Space Rankings        Free Agent Spending After Rankings

• 2^nd  – Browns    $31,257,831     Cap Hit FA $12,451,666
• 7^th   – Bengals   $21,274,502     Cap Hit FA $9,575,000
• 25^th – Ravens      $8,305,943     Cap Hit FA $7,331,666
• 27^th – Steelers    $7,932,149      Cap Hit FA $1,435,000

Based on those numbers, it's a little easier to see why teams were conservative or aggressive with spending so far during free agency. The Ravens and Steelers started-out with less to send and with signing their own FA back that fit with-in their available budgets (Steelers using a lot less so far). The Browns and Bengals chose to get a lot of spending done early, because there was so much money available on the table. However, both teams are closing-in on less than 50% of their dollars.

What could be an important factor going into the draft, late free agency and trade deadline to determine who is currently winning 'the' offseason is which teams feel they have more confidence in the young players they've developed in-house and which need more new blood and/or established vets.

With the 2 of the AFCN playoff teams showing vastly different spending patterns (Ravens over 85% on cap money and Steelers below 25% on cap money) would that represent that the Ravens are more comfortable with their depth and talent and the Steelers are less comfortable?

The other playoff team (Bengals) is spending only less than a 3rd of available cap although most of the top high dollar FAs are already signed around the league. Are they counting-on a late franchise QB or CB trade to get rid of the bank? The Browns may be planning the same way while only spending less than 40% of their bank, thus far.

I rank the Ravens highest in confidence so far.

edit -typos

Why compare to the AFC North?? Who thinks beating them is an accomplishment?? Anything less than a superbowl is failure!! So we need to compete with every other front office in the NFL. Not just AFC north. Had the ravens handled free agency better to allow resigning Corey Graham and drafted better with the Elam, Arthur Brown, and Upshaw picks we would have won the Superbowl. Fans are really doing cartwheels over resigning Canty. Many fans had Canty below average so why resign him??

Why the AFCN? Simply because it's important to stay competitive and win as many games as possible in your division 1st. Most teams that do reach the playoffs. Because all division teams play similar non-division opponents in a season, the FO work done to keep you at the top of your division may be the only thing that gets your team in the playoffs (example: Panthers 2014).

Not saying that the AFCN will lose as many games as the NFCS did against other divisions last season (I predicted they would not match-up well against us), but winning the FO Chess match with-in your division 1st usaully leads to more wins outside of your division, as well.

As far as winning the Superbowl last season - a million different things could have happened to change the final results, but I put the 'eligible substitution tactics' higher then anything else. Our FO put us in the position to possibly win another SB. That's all that you can ask of them. Games still have to be won on the field.  

Harrison truly found the fountain of youth last year, unlike Troy P.  He single handedly killed us the 2nd time we played them last season.  I can see why they signed him up for 2 more years.

Harrison did have a great comeback year especially against us, his career performance numbers (tackles, sacks, etc.) have been nearly split in the last 2 seasons. Ex: He's averaged 60+ solo tackles and 8+ sacks 5 years prior to his return as a Steeler and 30- solo tackles and 4- sacks after returning. Troy's leadership is a priceless asset, but like Harrison, the production has almost been cut in half.

Still productive, but nowhere close to the 'beast' they once were. That's why it's a 'slow decline'. Both are great players: however, there is room for other teams to make moves expose those positions.

Looks like Steelers are bringing back Polamalu and Harrison.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000480527/article/steelers-sign-james-harrison-to-twoyear-deal

Great Players -

A good move for fans? Absolutely. A good move to staying competitive in AFCN? Competitive yes...Dominate...not so much.
With both player's declining in production (although a slow decline) while other teams are getting younger in positions that directly challenge their's - it seems like a good opportunity for others to expose and attack their decline.

Update - Bengals Signings/Resignings

Rey Maualuga, LB

Mike Nugent, K

Clint Boling, OG

Eric Winston, OT

Chris Lewis-Harris, CB

A.J. Hawk, LB

Michael Johnson, DE

Devon Still, DT

Brandon Ghee, CB

Has anyone noticed deflate-gate is pretty much swept under the rug?

..... shocker ......

:-/

It will be left under the rug until new rules addressing it will be reported and this year's draft is not affected by it. After which an irrelvant 2016 draft pick or something less relevant will be taken from the Pats and the league will wipe it's hands clean of it forever.

In the meantime, the Pat's have been pre-warned of the upcoming penalties and have been given alternatives to nullify any damage from these irrelevant actions (i.e. - They make moves now to compensate for any penalty that may come down after this draft). Great PR. The dark-side wins again.