Filmstudy

The Ravens injury report currently includes several more players than which inactive spots exist.  I'm guessing the inactives will be:
Suggs, Doom, Hester, Wright, Smith, Yanda, Mosley

That means Willie Henry, c'mon down (and bring every other player with you, even if a limited practice participant).

Flacco will be active as an emergency QB.

3 hours ago, AppStRavenfan said:

It'll be interesting to see who our LBs will shake out with Suggs being out. Last week we rolled with Suggs, Orr, McClellan, and Smith, losing Suggs changes things quite a bit. Do with slide in Judon at the other OLB spot, or scoot McClellan out to OLB and let Correa get the start. My money's on the former, we haven't gotten any indication that Correa is ready to start and I doubt we'd hand him the start after giving him almost no playing time all season.

After seeing McClellan at ILB, I hope they move him back to OLB for this one.  They need a run stuffer so Judon can stay fresh.  

In general at LB, I think we'll see:

1. Orr on 100% of snaps at ILB

2. ZSmith at OLB on over half the snaps

3. Judon at OLB for approximately half the snaps

4. Levine as the dime (assuming the Ravens have enough corners)--ILB on passing downs (the Ravens had 19 dime snaps last week).  I'm expecting almost entirely dime this week for passing situations.

That leaves McClellan and Correa to fill in the remaining snaps.  My hope is:

5. Correa at ILB for 1st down or 2nd and short

6. McClellan at OLB primarily to set the edge 

Patrick Onwuasor will also be active again and play ST.  He could possibly have some ILB snaps as well (1 vs. the Giants)

The Ravens are so shorthanded on defense this week, it would not surprise me if a non-LB (perhaps Lawrence Guy or Brent Urban) is practicing to play some 2-down snaps at OLB.  We already saw Pees go to Levine as the nickel and Lewis as the dime for the last 4 snaps vs. the Giants.  Desperate times.

2 minutes ago, OUravensfan said:

Flacco might be 40/44 on QB sneaks in his career, it got sniffed out and stuffed, it happens. Flacco is good at the QB sneak, I was shocked he didn't get in becAuse he always gets in.

No Yanda was a problem.  Urschel and Zuttah are not maulers.

On 10/6/2016 at 11:52 PM, Maryland said:

They should have Hester wear one shoe that is 10 yards long, that way he can have a foot out of bounds to field kicks that are just in front of the endzone for a touchback. 

That would help with possession at the 40 as well.  1 foot OOB and 1 foot inside while making a catch is considered OOB for the 40-yard line rule.  A few of the better return men have been able to master that with normal shoes.

On 10/14/2016 at 6:40 PM, Maryland said:

I wouldn't say McClellan sucks, just that he probably shouldn't be playing ILB unless it's on an obvious run down. I am okay with him coming in as the Sam LB for Doom/Judon on early downs though. I would rather see Levine in there next to Orr than McClellan for the most part. 

I'm thinking they go right back to using Wright as the primary #2 CB now that he's healthy, though I'd rather see Tavon Young get the nod on plays where there's only 2 corners on the field. Our secondary played better with Young on the field last week.

Would like to know what others think. 

I'm with you exactly on McClellan.  Definitely do not want to see him on the field for anything other than an obvious run down.  He's also far more valuable on the edge than at ILB in run defense.  It may be today we get to see Correa at ILB.  McClellan on the injury report makes that even more likely.

The activation of Onwuasor is an interesting one, because it fills 2 needs.  He's the most obvious backup ILB/Dime.  He's also a good player for special teams.

The Ravens should activate Huff today as their 3rd safety, which will provide another player for ST.

As to Wright, my money is on a passing down role where Tavon bumps inside.  I think Young earned that with his performance last week.  In a way, Wright is competing with Powers for playing time.

I honestly don't have a clue how the Ravens will line up on the offensive line other than to say I'm fairly sure Zuttah will be at center.  Releasing Turner means the Ravens believe 1 of Yanda/Wagner/Stanley can go, so they will enter the game with 7 OL.  Based on the injury report, I guess it will be Wagner who plays.  That would make the starters Lewis/Urschel/Zuttah/Jensen/Wagner.

Here is my grading of the offensive linemen versus the Redskins:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/10/12/filmstudy/offensive-line-notes-vs-redskins/

Jensen played well at RG, which gives the Ravens some interesting decisions to make going forward that may affect the entire line.  Zuttah was also played his best game to date.  Yanda had an A before adjustment at both RG and RT.

Unfortunately, Lewis was party to 8 pressure events (5.5 pressures, 1 QH, 1/3 sack), Wagner left hurt after bottoming out on the last 2 plays of the half, and Urschel was unimpressive.

The overall level of pass blocking was just slightly below average (49% ATS vs. 6-year average of 51%), but Flacco threw for 112 yards less than expectation (188 actual vs 300 expected) for his opportunity set.  I offer some explanations as to why, but it's not all Joe.

Marty Mornhinweg has a huge job in front of him, but I believe the first order of business will be to reestablish the play action passing game.  

Just now, allblackraven said:

1] Wentz
2] Prescott
3] Rashard Robinson
4] Conklin
5] Whitehair
6] Brian Poole
7] Elliott
8] Tavon Young
9] Fackrell
10] Bosa ?!?!?!?

Bosa had an amazing first game of pressure.

I think you guys are saying this, but it doesn't have to be outside or inside for Young, it can be both if he kicks inside for the nickel as Webb did for years.

12 minutes ago, Maryland said:

I'm wondering what to expect at ILB next week, assuming Mosley is out with a hamstring. 

They'll probably primarily use McClellan next to Orr and maybe mix in more dime, but maybe we'll see some Correa. It's going to be a rough afternoon covering RBs out of the backfield if McClellan is placed in coverage situations.

This.

I think we'll see a lot more dime since 10 of 23 snaps were dime after Mosley departed and those were far more successful.  I expect we'll also see Correa at ILB and the Ravens need to think seriously about an ILB pickup.  Thinking back, Carter also played some ILB in the preseason.

5 hours ago, The Raven said:

I mean tbh Lewis played better at LT than Yanda did at RT imo.

Lewis allowed parts of 8 pressure events at LT and Yanda 0 at RT.  I'll post the times for the Lewis pressures/QH/sack in my article.

8 hours ago, Tru11 said:

tavon looks like he might turn out to be a stud.

i really like what im seeing from him.

He's been absurdly good.  

--He's allowed a few short completions but no significant YAC.  He's made quick tackles and made them in bounds when it mattered.

--He hasn't allowed anything you'd call a big play although Jackson had him beaten by a step (overthrown) on the Redskins last meaningful offensive snap (Q4, 2:50).

--Somehow, while the rest of the team was imploding on 3rd down versus the Browns, he was individually outstanding.  

--He's delivered 2 turnovers personally in 121 snaps, both of which put his outstanding hands on display.

Barring injury, I expect he'll play the rest of the season at LCB, but it's possible he'll become the new Lardarius Webb who starts outside, but moves to SCB in the nickel.

It can be difficult to determine how well an untested corner is playing, but I looked at every one of his snaps from the Browns game in this piece:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/09/22/filmstudy/tavon-young-vs-browns/

What happened after the Mosley play on defense was very interesting.  I've got a lot of detail here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/10/10/filmstudy/defensive-notes-vs-redskins/

The highlights:

--The Ravens had to call a timeout, presumably for a helmet exchange.

--McClellan quickly showed that his primary position should not be listed as "ILB" on the Ravens official roster (it still is).

--The Ravens increased total dime played during the Pees era by 10% (100 snaps previously, 10 snaps after Mosley's injury on Sunday)

There's much  more detail on these and other defensive topics in the article.

The 6 Ravens OL penalties versus the Raiders resulted in 5 stalled drives.  The only penalty that was not classified as drive-stalling was Hurst's first hold, which was declined because it brought up 4th down.  That's a drive staller too, as I would define it.

That is one awful set of penalties.

3 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

But PFF weights it differently, too, as far as I know. If you have a holding penalty that leads to a safety, I guarantee that's a -2.0 on their scale. If it's just a false start, I bet it's like a -.5 or what ever the "standard" is. 

I just don't see the opportunity to actually make up for a poor play in Filmstudy's scoring whereas PFF allows a lineman to make up for a mistake.

There is a way to make up for poor play in the adjustment, but that is a maximum of .10.  That covers elements not in the system like the quality of opponents (above the replacement level), highlight blocks, and high value special plays (like Zuttah's fumble recovery).  Some people were very vocal when I began to add this adjustment, because they didn't think it should matter whether the opponent was Albert McClellan or JJ Watt, you still have to block him.  In the charts, I show the adjustment in red and raw score in purple.

I keep all of the information on pulls, pancakes and level 2 blocks.  If those are highlight blocks, it contributes to the adjustment.

Pass blocking is all about minimizing failure rate, so that's by far the most important component of score.

Run blocking isn't as important as pass blocking because there is less swing in win probability on those plays (lower leverage).  That is something I have discussed with PFF about including in their system, because the information necessary to calculate leverage is there.  The FO addage: "Teams run because they win, they don't win because they run" has never been more true in the NFL.

There are a number of ways to consider the costs of penalties, but win probability is probably the best.  Since the defense needs big plays to stop any drive (said otherwise, they can't stop any NFL offense by allowing their avg yards per play), chunk negative plays like penalties have a significant cost.  I charge -3 points per 5 yards of penalties, which I have considered reducing to -2.  If I made that adjustment for Zuttah, he'd have 4 more points and a D.

7 minutes ago, jboy19 said:

I think it was a knee jerk reaction to begin with. At least they'll disappear.................. jk they're the same people calling for Tavon Young to start over Shareece Wright. Love those internet GMs. 

Tavon is doing great where he is, but I don't see him on the outside. If he end up there in an emergency and plays well, I guess he could stick.  As of now he keeps proving why he's a better player than the 8-year vet (Powers) that he's competing with.   

3 hours ago, Cawtious said:

Check the downfield block on his longest run.  Who sprung him 15 yrds downfield for additional yardage by cratering #27....yep.

 

That was a screen pass.  It will be on Jensen's career highlight reel, because he also knocked down a guy at the LoS.

If you're interested my OL article is now out.  Because the grades were so poor, I provided (Q, T) references for the main 4 culprits, so you can follow on Game Pass.

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/10/05/filmstudy/ravens-raiders-offensive-line-grades/

30 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

So what do you think accounts for the difference between your grading and PFF grade? I believe he was graded as the 3rd best offensive player was he not?

I know one element is penalties.  My charge is high and Zuttah had 2 OHs.  There are other elements like proximity pressures which come up regularly as differences.  I'm going to start with this simple statement:  It's not possible in my system to have a top grade at center any time you have 2 holding penalties.  However, the PFF scoring system uses a system of credits and debits for which it is entirely possible to overcome 2, drive-stalling holds.

They overvalue run blocking (from my perspective) when you see a single combined score.  In the NFL, the high-leverage plays are primarily passes, so I think adding together run blocking and pass blocking scores is akin to adding bananas imported from Equador to microchips imported from Japan to get a single metric of foreign trade.  

They also award an event in integer units only and to a single lineman.  I split up the charge for any event to the players I think are responsible.

I am asked to write this up virtually any time my grade disagrees from PFF.  I'm aware and the best I can do is give you a transparent set of deductions to review.

The PFF analytics people and I communicate 1-2 times per year to review specific scoring differences. We will occasionally find a QH one of us missed or a pressure to change, but the vast majority of differences are definitional.

I'll add that PFF is the ONLY source for the relative framework of OL (and other positions) quality.  They have changed the way information travels on many positions.  I like their product and highly recommend it.  However, their service was a lot more valuable when the count statistics were available in the $26.99 annual package.  They now charge $1,500 annually for that package. 

4 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

He did get positive grades from PFF, but I haven't seen FilmStudy's review yet. My assumption is he will grade him out by far as the best game this year.

This is due out any time now, but Zuttah didn't have a good game at all as I scored it.  In fact, all 4 of the lineman other than Yanda were on the D/F border.

I gave Zuttah the maximum adjustment (.10) for the combination of the fumble he recovered and quality of competition, but his raw score was .65 adjusted to .75, which is still 2 points below passing for a center.

I did think both of the penalties could just as easily not have been called, but 2 holding penalties cost him 12 points, he missed 5 blocks, and had 2 pressures plus a QH as well.  I have all the time references for his deductions in my article so you folks with Game Pass can review along with me.

More than ever, the Ravens need Zuttah to play well while they are addressing problems elsewhere with overlapping backup personnel.

20 hours ago, arnie_uk said:

Flacco doesn't have ample time 1 in every 2 throws? Surely that's an awful statistic?

The 51% has bounced in a fairly narrow range since 2010.  You are probably familiar with PFF.  My definition of ATS is more strict than what PFF defines as "under pressure", because I call a drop back "not ATS" if the QB cannot step into his throw in a 120 degree arc centered on the targeted receiver.  Whenever I review pressures with their analysts, there are a number of "proximity pressures" where a lineman is backed up into Joe's space, but doesn't touch him.  Those are pressures allowed by my system and PFF does not tag them the same way.

Please note I am not putting down PFF, merely pointing out a definitional difference.

4 hours ago, rmw10 said:

Curious to get your take on Suggs so far this year.  Despite the sack numbers, he looks awfully slow out there.  You can still see the football smarts, but more often that not, he doesn't have the speed to make the play.  Do you think it's still the recovery from the Achilles or is he on a serious downward spiral?  I've been saying every week that there are good moments, but there hasn't been any improvement so far in 4 weeks.

I'm happy with the way he has played the run this season, particularly since edge setting is an area where the Ravens are thin.

I am concerned about the fact 2 of his 3 sacks have been cleanups near the sideline.  I want to see more from him in terms of pressure and have more pressure on the pocket and not outside it.

1 hour ago, allblackraven said:

I find these numbers interesting, yet confusing. We were robbing Carr of time the most when we rush 5 but he made more yards than expected in those situations. Rush 4, don't put much pressure, he under-delivers. Better pass coverage because there's extra guy there?

It's too few trials (7 with 5, for example) for you to get the consistent answer you want.

The chart is intended to show a few things:

--How often the Ravens rushed 3, 4, 5, 6

--How I look at ATS

--How little pressure they had in total.  26 of 35 is close to the highest pct Flacco has had from 2010-16.  Flacco has had 51% of all drop backs with ATS since 2010.

--The "failure" for Carr to deliver on expected yards for his opportunity set is as hollow as Pees claiming the Ravens defense was great in the 2nd half of 2015 based on yards alone.  I explain that in the article.

I am surprised by this.  I thought Skura was a natural interior OL choice.  

One question I have...why is Blaine Clausell on the PS if he is not a consideration for activation when the Ravens lose 2 tackles?

6 hours ago, Rav'n Maniac said:

True considering at times we rushed 5 and sometimes 6. 

Here are pressure stats by number of pass rushers for the Ravens:  

ATS= Ample Time and Space.  On defense, you want "Not ATS".

Expected yards are based on Flacco's averages with and without ATS for 2010-2015.  For Joe, It's been worth about 4 yards more to be granted ATS (8.2 YPP) vs. not-ATS (4.1 YPP) over that period.

3 hours ago, Ravens4Real said:

They were down to their 3rd or 4th string RT. I'm not sure if they shuffled their lineman around at all which should have caused more confusion.

Either way you chalk it up, it's alarming that we couldn't get more pressure than we did. 

Alexander had a horrible game with 3 holding penalties plus a FS at RT.  

Just now, rmw10 said:

Wasn't a big ST player according to the snap counts.  Someone had to sit and he happened to be the one.

That's how I saw it.  Not having him against Alexander really hurt.