Filmstudy

4 hours ago, Jacquouille said:

@Filmstudy again, thanks for your work, always the best read of the week. I have two questions: 

1) Did Judon also had the majority of his snaps in the 4th quarter like against the Steelers?

2) Is it the first game Smith rushed from the inside since the game against Buf? I've pound the table for that to happen ever since that game. 

Judon's snaps were more evenly split in this game (6 in the 1st half and 8 in the 2nd).  He did play 6 of the last 8 defensive snaps.

I keep personnel, but not defensive positioning, for every play.  From memory, I think Za'Darius has had other snaps on the inside this season, probably with McClellan on the outside in the Ravens' 5-up/1-down pass rush formation.  I can verify that the 3 times Thursday with Smith/Judon/Suggs on the field at one time were the first 3 all year.  That's a lot more pass rush firepower.

Urban played just 4 snaps, but had a pressure, a batted pass when double teamed, and a run stop for 0 that was almost a safety.

I thought he might be used on the offensive line had there been another injury and Zuttah not returned.

Soooo much to like about that game:

1.  Lots of contributions/breakouts from young players.

2.  Turnaround by Suggs

3.  10/35 drop Backs ATS for Browns (29%).  Flacco has had horrid protection all year, but never less than 34% ATS in a game.

4.  Despite incredible performance by pass rush, the defense significantly outperformed expectation for the limited opportunity set.

My notes on the defense are posted if you are interested:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/11/filmstudy/youth-redemption-renewed-hope-ravens-defense-browns/

I have posted OL scoring for the Steelers game:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/09/filmstudy/ronnie-stanley-poor-play-against-steelers/

Cliff Notes:

--Flacco had ATS on just 12 of 32 throws, but had an inverted game with almost 10 YPP without ATS and 1.6 YPP with ATS

--Stanley had the worst game I have scored since Hurst in the 2015 opener at Denver

--Alex Lewis had a terrific return to LG and was the highest graded on the OL

--Jeremy Zuttah did not allow a single pass rush event

49 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Having McLellan in the defense when the offense is in hurry up, and clearly looking to attack down field makes 0 sense to me.

I am also completely confused as to why we havent seen Levine deployed more often. I know it was preseason, but he was arguably our best playmaker. Made a couple game saving plays in the exact type of scenarios as we were seeing on Sunday. Use the man.

McLellans only value imo is as a backup, rotational ILB or as a run defender setting the edge. Offers nothing from a pass rush perspective, and his coverage ability is sub par.

I didnt realize he was on the field so often in the 4th qtr. So, if i were to blame Pees for one thing - thatd be it.

 

Though, I wonder, if maybe Pitt recognized this as a favorable personnel grouping to attack and really put the pedal down in their hurry up to keep him on the field. Maybe they wanted to sub him off at some point but Pitt did a nice job of preventing it?

But, the fact that he was back out there on the next drive kind of eliminates that theory.

I'm in agreement that McClellan's value is as a 2-down edge setter at OLB.

I write a lot of things about McClellan that must seem uncomplimentary.  The guy is a fine football player:

--He makes the team every year despite the perception he's in camp battles with players like Arthur Brown, because he's consistently willing to take a role where the Ravens have a hole.

--Rosburg consistently praises him for his special teams play and on-field leadership to reposition players in kick coverage.

--He's one of the Ravens' 2 best edge setters (along with Suggs) at OLB, where the situational pass rushers should need rotation to be fresh for passing downs.

--He's a player from whom I have never seen complaint in social media or heard of any off-field concern.

The problem is he's such a good team player, Pees has cast him in some roles that don't fit his skill set.

With regard to the point about subbing him off, that would not have been a problem, because they shifted between Guy and Jernigan every few plays.  

6 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I can't find the quoted post above (not looking terribly hard might be the reason...), but Mosley had an excellent day in coverage yesterday and hasn't Orr been pretty good in coverage this year?

Obviously the weak link in those 34 snaps is McClellan, especially when running the ball was an afterthought, but you'd still think Mosley and Orr would be at least decent choices in coverage, wouldn't you?

Mosley has done well in coverage this year and in this game, plus he's the signal caller, so no problem there.  Orr and McClellan have both been targets.

The Ravens have been playing a 1-down lineman pass rush package with just Jernigan (or Guy on Sunday) in a 3-point stance.  The others are all standing (presumably to confuse on provide some coverage flexibility), but it seems McClellan is a fixture in that package.  So the personnel on the field include:

--5 DBs

--Mosley and Orr

--Jernigan (primarily, it was Guy some in Q4 on Sunday)

--2 pass-rushing OLBs from among Suggs, Judon, and Smith

--McClellan

On Sunday, for example, McClellan played 27 of the 34 snaps in Q4.

If Levine took the spot of Orr in this package, he would (and did during Mosley's absence) position himself similarly to either threaten the blitz or drop to coverage.  He'd be a hell of a lot better in coverage and my contention is he's not much worse than Orr in terms of pass rush value, because both are looking for a free run to get home, not to beat a blocker.  Levine's short area coverage skills were on full display during the preseason, and the Ravens always did well with the dime prior to Pees' arrival.

As an alternative, if Pees wants to keep Orr on the field, he can remove McClellan and have Orr take Albert's roll in the dime package.

4 minutes ago, January J said:

Beats me. Did Elam play any defensive snaps Sunday? Or any on ST?

0 defensive snaps for Elam or Levine.  The only 5 DBs who played were Powers, Smith, Young, Webb, Weddle.

Re tired defense in Q4:

--Tiring is MUCH more a function of consecutive snaps played as opposed to total snaps played.

--The natural course of 3-down defense has substitution packages on passing downs where the rotation naturally rests pass rushers.

--Playing 4-down, pass-only defense puts much more pressure on the same players, most notably the pass rush.  The Ravens tried to alleviate with alternation of Guy and Jernigan, but Pierce (0), Williams (6), and Urban (0), played a combined 6 snaps in Q4.  That severely limited the ability to spread DL snaps.

--McClellan/Orr/Mosley had a combined 0 pressure events for the game.  Mosley has to play every snap, because he's the signal caller.  McClellan and Orr provide very little to the pass rush, so an extra DB (some coaches would advise 2 for optimal zone defense) would have provided more effective zone defense.  The 2000 Ravens played exclusively dime and quarter in similar situations and all of the DCs prior to Pees would have played a heavy component of dime.  Pees played all nickel.  

5 hours ago, terrynjulia03 said:

Oh we can agree that it def wasn't a Prevent. For one all our LBs we're still on the field. Lol. 

There were 2 issues I'd point to that fueled the rally in Q4:

1. The defense was tired playing 34 plays in Q4.  That's especially tough for the pass rush.

2. The Ravens kept Orr (every snap) and McClellan (27 of 34 snaps) on the field for virtually the entirety of Q4.  Those are 2 big targets in zone that provide nothing to the pass rush (Mosely/Orr/McClellan had a combined 0 pressure events for the entire game).

Levine in the dime was the better choice and was rested.

58 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

They just stripped it down way too much in terms of advanced metrics. Their old content was totally worth it. Now, I'm not so sure.

It really was outstanding what they offered for $26.99 (now $1,500 annually).  With the elimination of the underlying count information came a loss of transparency.

4 hours ago, jazz1988 said:

I thought he was  solid job at setting the edge against The Jets when he started in place of Albert McCellan. I'm interested in seeing him more in that role.

I'm good with this, but either of 2 paths is ok for me:

1. Use him as a 2-down OLB and keep Za'Darius fresh for a pure situational pass rush role (See if that helps).  This is the better place to see if Kamalei can contribute as an edge rusher, too.

2. Get him time at ILB, so if there is another injury, McClellan doesn't have to play there.  Albert is too important as a 2-down edge setter and too limited as an ILB.

On 11/7/2016 at 11:02 PM, ALPHA said:

He was talking double digit sacks this past offseason. Does anyone with a pff account know how his pressures count stacks up?

Smith had just 3 pressures in 33 pass rushes versus the Steelers as I scored it.  Jernigan went 1 for 34. Suggs had 1 QH and a batted pass in 29.  Guy was 1 for 19.  McClellan/Mosley/Orr combined for 0 pass rush events of any sort. 

The lousy pass rush was a team effort.  Only Judon and BWill did well.

I spent a significant amount of space on the pass rush in my piece today, but the upshot is the secondary played an amazing game under difficult circumstances:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/07/filmstudy/ravens-defense-notes-vs-steelers-week-9/

9 hours ago, Tru11 said:

probably gonna play in sub packages next to jernigan on the inside.

would make the most sense.

That would have the most value if he can fit there.  Bat a few passes and demand a few doubles inside.  While he's been a good special teamer and edge setter, I don't want to see McClellan on the field for another passing down.

I'd like another edge rusher in the 2017 draft, of course, but I'd also like Henry, Kaufusi, or someone from the draft develop the lightning first step of McPhee or Adams to rush from the inside.

I'm not sure if the Ravens have told Mornhinweg he's an interim OC.  If so, then Norv could be hired immediately and Marty would go back to being QB coach.

7 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Yea I remember reading that, good writeup as always.  I just didn't know if someone else had all that info that you can look at it.  Just intrigued on how well jimmy has been doing.  Do you do a review at the end of the year over a lot of the players?

I have not done so every year, but I have done a boxed analysis of each player in some years.  Here is a link to the defensive pieces from after the Super Bowl year and the OL after 2013.  Please take a read and let me know if there's something else you'd like to see.

http://russellstreetreport.com/2014/02/05/filmstudy/filmstudy-graphs-charts/2013-offensive-line-grades/

http://russellstreetreport.com/2013/03/03/filmstudy/filmstudy-2012-defensive-personnel-analysis-defensive-line/

http://russellstreetreport.com/2013/02/22/filmstudy/filmstudy-2012-defensive-personnel-analysis-linebackers/

http://russellstreetreport.com/2013/02/15/filmstudy/filmstudy-2012-defensive-personnel-analysis-secondary/

These pieces are quite a lot of work to put together, so I haven't done them every year, when interest wanes quickly after the Ravens are eliminated.

13 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

@Filmstudy I think I asked you before but don't remember.  Were you ever able to pull stats on CBs with 'thrown at', 'catches allowed', 'yards allowed'? Judging how well CBs play is extremely hard for the average football fan

PFF offers that with one of their packages, but it can be difficult to get the assignment right.  I record it for longer catches or if there is a good open field tackle made that minimizes YAC,

I did this piece on an ad hoc basis for Tavon Young versus the Browns:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/09/22/filmstudy/tavon-young-vs-browns/

However, this is a significant effort to do for every pass play and all DBs.  I agree the information available for DBs is not very good, but it's a tall mountain to fix. 

On 10/29/2016 at 11:53 AM, terrynjulia03 said:

Urschel did decent during those games last year, but this year he's looked pretty bad. I'd like to get Filmstudy take on it and review his grades on Urschel last year and this year. Unfortunately this forum isn't very user friendly, needs vbulletin lol. 

In a perfect world I'd say we resign Wagner at a team friendly deal, considering looking at who "possibly" needs a RT next year, OR a upgrade I think he will prob only have at max 3 teams "interested". It's not like he's a instant upgrade to even half the teams in the league. Subtracting out teams teams rather resigning their own player, teams that won't have the cap space to overprice him, etc... I don't see teams going after him like they did KO. 

Urschel grades out and is the C for the foreseeable future, Lewis stays at LG, with a possible transition in 2018/19 to RG if Yanda hangs them up??? Another biggie we have to look at later on. And this year and next continue to draft OL in the middle rounds to see and/or groom along the line. 

I really hoped like hell Urschel would be the guy at center, but he didn't play well there in 2015 and he hasn't played well at guard in 2016.  Here are chart with his grades from 2015-16:

http://russellstreetreport.com/filmstudy-ravens-offensive-line-grades-by-game-2015/

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/09/05/filmstudy/filmstudy-graphs-charts/2016-offensive-line-grades-game/

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I'm just telling you what I learned in my psychology classes from professors.

No offense intended, BB22.  I'm just extraordinarily skeptical of the methods of tests in general and that one in particular, which I've heard quoted over the years.

By analogy, Interceptions are tremendously correlated with losses while fumbles much less so.  Are the value of the turnovers much different?  No, it's the root circumstance that drives interceptions (many are thrown by the trailing team) which drives the high correlation to losing.

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Psychologist believe the thought process goes like this...

"Wow, I'm not getting paid much, but I still work here.... I must really like this place to work for so little."

False causality.

The people who stay aren't in it for the money and happier.

14 hours ago, flynismo said:

Ridiculous if true. I'm a "Harbaugh homer" and all...but before I state my very disparaging opinion on that -- there is no context provided, they simply say that "He singled out Timmy Jernigan as being responsible for Sunday’s biggest play". I'd want to hear the full quote, and the question being answered, before making a judgment.

Here is the postgame transcript from the Ravens site:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Transcripts-Ravens-Postgame-Quotes-Oct-23/79e8671b-5cd9-47bb-9d08-7950f2e5dbf6

The Harbaugh interview is after Flacco and there is a paragraph on Jernigan.

Below is the transcript from Rosburg today regarding the missed spot mentioned in the same article:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Ravens-Tuesday-Transcripts-Oct25/d787829e-b225-4bd1-ac39-101bfdaf3ed7

And I applaud you withholding judgment before seeing the quotes.

This came from the interview transcripts today:

Jerry Rosburg

Did they spot the ball right after the blocked field goal? (Luke Jones) “You can call the NFL office and ask them that.” (laughter)

Did you guys point that out? Did you not challenge that? (Luke Jones) “We tried.”

It’s not a challengeable play? (Luke Jones) “The next play already ensued, so there was nothing we could do after the fact.”

He was put in a very uncomfortable position answering these questions.  Rosburg is a demon during practice, but he's an extremely cerebral coach and that's clear whenever he takes the podium.  He had to know the spot was wrong from experience.  Some interaction between he and Harbaugh is apparent on the Top View of the coaches film prior to the Ravens snap.  It's very brief and at the bottom of the screen, but the pooch was badly screwed here.  It looks to me as if Harbaugh made the decision not to throw the challenge flag.  I interpret Rosburg's answers as:

1.  Trying to use humor to defuse the situation and hope like hell the line of questioning disappears.

2.  "We tried" may refer to his efforts to inform Harbaugh of the incorrect spot.

3.  The play is challengeable, because the only reason that ball does not go back to the spot of the kick is if it's touched by the return team after the block.  A touch of a kicked ball is specifically listed as challengeable.  Rosburg knows that for sure.  Harbaugh also has a special teams background and should know it as well.  My interpretation of his 3rd answer is "We were too late making the challenge." 

There was absolutely 0 reason not to throw the red flag to stop the action.  We have seen time and again when a coach tosses the flag, but the play is determined unchallengeable, the officials simply announce the play was not challengeable and do not charge a timeout.  There was no downside risk.

I'm a big John Harbaugh fan.  I thought he had a good year of game management in 2015 that exactly fit the weakness of the team with a higher level of risk accepted.  However, this was simply an enormous whiff and he should own it.

After all, the officials for the game are going to own it in the form of a downgrade for the crew.

1 hour ago, Tru11 said:

im suprised there is so little outrage about Harbaugh unjustifyingly throwing a player on the bus.
people wanted pees head for far less.

goes to show you how biased people are tbh.

also its a safety if you willingly for no reason run into your own endzone and go down lol.

might be wrong but the fumble happened around the 4 yard line and was recovered at the 3rd yard line give or take.
he then willingly ran a yard into the endzone before coming out and fumbling.

if he where to take a knee there it would have been a safety unless you could make the argument that momentum carried him into the endzone.
would be a huge stretch tbh.

not sure if i should be surprised or not that our HC does not know of these details .......

This.

And if there are folks who think Jernigan should have gone down in the end zone:

1.  The ball would only have been returned to the 3-yard line, not the 20.

2.  It might have been ruled a safety.

Those are both bad options, but a safety is so much worse, you have to bring it out.

From Ravens transcripts of interviews after the game:

Harbaugh:

On Timmy Jernigan fumbling after a fumble recovery…

Yeah, you’ve got to stay in the end zone there and he knows that. That’s not one where you bring it out. You’re not a ball- carrier. It was a huge play in the game and, obviously, it was a difference in the game. We’re going for a field goal at the end and not a touchdown. Those are the kinds of things that are costing us games and those are the kinds of things that have to stop.

Jernigan:

On whether he thought he could pick up Matt Forté’s fumble and put the Ravens’ offense in better field position…

That’s what I thought, but from now on I don’t care if I have 100 yards in front of me with no one in front of me, I’ll fall on the ball just to make everybody happy. Everybody stays happy that way.

If Harbaugh had simply said: "It was a very costly fumble.  It probably cost us the game.  Timmy's got to practice better ball security."

that would have been infinitely better than what he did say, which is questioning the decision to bring the ball out.  Harbaugh also happens to be wrong about Jernigan's decision (see the article linked above for details on why), which compounds his error.

I think it's also pretty clear from Jernigan's response that Harbaugh's tongue lashing didn't make a lot of sense to him. 

On 10/23/2016 at 9:16 PM, redlobster said:

Did correa play today?

He played 30 snaps.  I've got details on all the LB deployment, which was extremely thin in my podcast on the defense:

https://audioboom.com/posts/5202381-locked-on-ravens-10-24-standard-of-expectations?t=0

John Harbaugh also failed to challenge an 11-yard misspot of the football following the blocked FG that set up the Ravens final drive.  That had me screaming at the game.  After the block was unreturned past the LoS, it should have been returned to the spot of the kick (the 41), but instead, the officials spotted the ball where it rolled out of bounds (the 30). 

It's bad for Harbaugh and his staff to allow that to go unchallenged the same week he lambasted Jernigan for his fumble return, which required  very specific knowledge of the safety/impetus rules.  Details here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/10/24/filmstudy/uniform-standard-expectation/

I'm also puzzled by the move.  I don't think this can be just a ST move, because I think Brown might give you as much or more there.  Could be Taliaferro will return kickoffs, but that is a small context of responsibility.  They also weren't forced to make a decision on T34 yet, and this simply accelerates it.  Perhaps LT has shown quite a bit in practice and they like having him for short yardage, but it does seem like a big luxury given the team's other needs.