Filmstudy

HI folks,

I know I'm jumping in late, but I'm got some charts and simplifying explanations posted here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/28/filmstudy/ravens-steelers-tiebreakers-week-13/

The Cliff notes version is the Ravens could possibly lose the division tiebreaker to the Steelers, but they almost certainly won't tie the Steelers if they do so.

55 minutes ago, PurpleCity5 said:

I haven't seen any Dime either which is why I personally don't think we've seen Levine. I thought we did throw in a few dime packages but it does make sense if we've only thrown in 1. Dime package takes away a Linebacker or a DL and you're not taking Mosley/Orr off the field. Teams don't play 4 WR sets often either, you don't see them much, in fact we rarely do it ourselves, this is partly why you're not seeing the dime package often. Now, you can still play the dime against a 3 WR set, but why take CJ or Orr off the field? I saw Levine against the Jets and Giants, but after that he's nowhere to be found, it could have been in the 4-3 because I think I saw him make a run stop through the middle of the weak-side but I could be wrong. 

Elam returning I think had to do with the experience at that position. He also might look better than Levine from the coaches POV. 

You're exactly right about when you saw Levine.  He played dime after Mosley's injury versus the Skins, then against the Giants and Jets in that same dime role.  Mosley returned after the bye and we have not seen Levine on defense since except for the final series at cover-2 safety against the Browns.  He played some nickel in the first several games as well.

There are really 2 players keeping Levine off the field in passing situations, and Mosley isn't one of them, because he's the signal caller.  The 2 are:

Orr: Who has difficulty in coverage, despite being a decent pass rusher and some speed.

McClellan: Who is a regular moving piece in the 5-up, 1-down pass rush lineup Pees often fields (Jernigan, 2 OLBs, Mosely, Orr, McClellan).  McClellan is a fish out of water in coverage and despite a recent sack, has no more ability to get to the QB than Levine (both need to use quickness and would have great difficulty winning a 1-on-1 battle).  As an aside, McClellan lined up at DT from a 4-point stance on the 3rd and 22 play (Q4, 6:53) and was flagged for IH.

There are 2 ways to get Levine on: 1) Move Orr up to the LoS and remove McClellan 2) Remove Orr for Levine.  Either way should give the Ravens more coverage options with little reduction in pass rush.  The 2000 Ravens used method 2) to replace Jamie Sharper on 3rd down (with Corey Harris).  The following year, Sharper became an integral part of the pass defense, so they used method 1), but still played a dime DB next to Ray Lewis.

1 hour ago, PurpleCity5 said:

Levine is a guy you'll see on Dime packages. I don't think Levine will be seen at the slot often, I don't know if he's fully capable of playing there at the moment. He's a guy who plays the hybrid S/LB role and the dime when we put out 4 CBs. That's when I see him most. It's curious considering that we employ plenty of 4-3 so you would expect to see him more but it seems that Elam has cut into his playing time as well. 

I sooo want this to actually be true, but the Ravens have not played a snap of dime since Mosley returned and they played just 1 dime snap prior to his injury against the Skins.  

I'm not shocked Elam got the back-end playing time he did against the Bengals, but Levine has slipped on the depth chart since the start of the season despite a number of injuries. 

On Sunday Elam missed a tackle on Burkhead (stiffarm) and fell down in coverage of Eifert (Q4, 1:27) on the 4th and 3 conversion when Eifert pushed off for separation and Matt tried to recover.

6 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

At the bottom is FilmStudy's review of the defense for the Bengals game. Some interesting points I noticed (emphasis on the pass rush):

1. Dalton had ATS on just 51% of dropbacks, so the Ravens were effective in their pressure about half the dropbacks. 

2. Effective with our 4 and 5 man pressures... provided pressure on 48% of dropbacks on when rushing 4 or 5.

3. Some big time key adjustments from Pees really helped things...

• 25 Bengals snaps in the 4th quarter
• 8 of the last 10 snaps provided quality pass rush pressure
• Judon was rested... played only 6 snaps in the 4th quarter
• Swapped out Jernigan for Urban
• Heavy pressure from Suggs and Dumervil

4. One other key adjustment that seemed to have paid off was taking Powers out of obvious passing down situations (he was getting burned early) and moving Webb down to corner and inserting Elam in at safety.

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/29/filmstudy/timely-results-pass-rush-bengals/

Thanks for this summary, @rmcjacket23 .  I like to use bullets to make subpoints, but I can't in my pieces, because it doesn't show up well when read on typical mobile phone browsers.  No, I'm not kidding.

Anyway, this is a much clearer summary of the items in 3, in particular.

It's unfortunate they probably won't be able to block passes against too many QBs.  Dalton is 6'2" and every other QB the rest of the way is 6'4" and up.  However, if you look, the Ravens weren't just blocking those passes with their fingertips. 

One thing I haven't seen mentioned much is the early reassignment of Powers.  He was twice beaten by Boyd for 18 yard gains (1 negated) in Q1, so Pees reduced his role to some 1st/2nd downs the remainder of the game (19 snaps).  After that, Webb moved to SCB on obvious passing downs and Elam played 25 snaps of safety.

Significant detail about the adjustment and other elements of the defensive effort are here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/29/filmstudy/timely-results-pass-rush-bengals/

21 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

In fact, if you dig deeper, you can make a case that we've been better in the 2nd round in the last 6-8 years than we were before that. 

Go back and look at 96-08. Look at the 2nd round picks we drafted. Its not a strong list. 

Jamie Sharper in 97, Patrick Johnson in 98, Anthony Weaver in 02, and Dwan Edwards in 04. Those are the good one's. Jamie Sharper is the only "great" player on that list. 

There's a lot of Chris Chester's in there...

I would put Chris Chester's draft value ahead of both Johnson and Edwards:

Chester started 47 games as a Raven and only left because the team developed a potential HoF guard, had a Pro Bowler at the other spot, and signed Matt Birk at Center.  He wasn't good enough to play with those great Ravens interiors, but he was good value for their first 4 years.  He was also a rare excellent FA signing for the Redskins who made all 64 starts on a 4-year deal and raised his level of play.  He's still in the NFL at age 33.

Patrick Johnson had speed and scored the TD that gave the Titans their first loss in their new home, but he caught just 58 balls in his Ravens career, not enough for a #2.

Dwan Edwards produced essentially nothing on his first 5 years (54 tackles, 14 starts, 1 INT).  After missing his entire 5th season with injury, he returned cheap, had a productive season, and was off to free agency.  He's one of the few players ever to blossom after his rookie deal.

I wrote an article ranking the Ravens 2nd round picks in 2012 when the Ravens finally released Sergio Kindle.  I include it here, because it includes all 3 players.  Looks like I whiffed on Upshaw, but pretty much nailed the call on Osemele 6 games into his career.  Osemele was actually moved to LG for the first playoff game in 2012.

http://russellstreetreport.com/2012/10/21/street-talk/ranking-the-ravens-2nd-round-draft-picks/

5 hours ago, Cillmatic said:

He wasn't abused. He's playing like how very good rookie undersized outside CB would. All things considered he's probably our best performing rookie this season. Definitely a top ten CB of the draft. He'll excell when we move him to the slot where he belongs.

Originally, I thought SCB only, but I think he's the new outside with 4 DBs, SCB in the nickel.  Like Webb and has hands, speed, and tackling skills Webb did as a young player.  We'll see where he fits with ability to be left on an island with bigger receivers, but he brings a lot to the position.

Just now, rmcjacket23 said:

OL shouldn't increase a ton though. Even if Wagner gets like $7M a year, that would probably only put us about middle of the pack in spending, and that'll likely be offset by dropping Zuttah, so may only see a few million increase. If they resigned Wagner, dumped Zuttah, and drafted a new center, you're looking at 3 rookie deals on the OLine. That's going to be cheap regardless.

Safety I'm conflicted with. Elam's cap number is only like $2.1M, so its not that big. I'm also beginning to think that the FO sort of "likes" having two veterans starting safeties. I think we're about to see a pretty strong youth movement at Corner, with Young and probably another moderately early round draft pick behind Jimmy, and so I'm not sure if the FO looks to get younger at safety in 2017. 2018-2019 absolutely, since Weddle is in the back end of his career and so is Webb. 

I know its not popular sentiment, but I actually think they attempt to extend Webb for like 2-3 years and lower his 2017 cap figure. No chance he's back at that price.

I would like them to stop pushing cap dollars forward for Webb, even though his tag will be high next year.  If they draft a safety, I'd like someone on the extreme end of the spectrum.  Either great ball skills or the outstanding short-area coverage skills to play dime.  I don't think the Ravens will do as well someone who's a little of both.

How do you feel about resigning Elam for 2 years at, say, $3-4 M total?

BTW, OL scoring is up.

I saw Zuttah got a good grade from PFF.  He blocked well when not penalized, but the impact of the penalties was enormous and not properly weighted by PFF's system.  Part of it is that pass blocking is simply more important that run blocking due to leverage.  The other is that the mechanism for scoring balances positives and negatives with poor weighting.  That game was an F by a wide margin in terms of his total contribution.

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/23/filmstudy/jeremy-zuttah-penalties-costly-dallas/

22 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Pretty much smack dab in the middle... 17th in the league in offensive cap spending. 19th in the league in defensive spending, so pretty balanced overall spending approach.

Positions where we spend very little money compared to the rest of the league:

RB: 28th in the league ($2.5M)

OL: 26th in the league ($18M)

DL: 32nd in the league ($7.2M)... unbelievable value here, though I suppose this may be skewed by the 3-4 vs 4-3 designations

Positions where we spend a lot of money compared to the rest of the league:

QB: 4th in the league ($24M)

LB: 9th in the league ($21.9M)... again, may be skewed by 3-4 vs 4-3 designations

S: 1st in the league ($18.9M)

 

The DL is amazing value.  There is no expensive vet in the group and the group is healthy.  Good combination for value, but it will change in next 2 years.

The OL is also inexpensive, but that's about to change if they resign Wagner.

LB has Suggs, Doom, and a R1 pick.  This could be much lower next season.

S is the big waste spot with Webb and Elam big cap numbers.  The Ravens need to get younger here ASAP.

On 11/15/2016 at 3:45 PM, usmccharles said:

I would of loved to see a healthy doom out there.  I really hope we can find a good young pass rusher next year, or maybe judon is that guy? We need to find Suggs replacement 

Suggs' replacement isn't on the team yet.  He'll be a top of the first round selection.

Just now, Steve0x said:

Here how tiebreakers should go.. Division record wins,,, Conference record wins,,, Home Wins  if thats tied it goes by the best defense yards allowed.

No HTH?

19 hours ago, PurpleHorseman said:

If not for knee injuries Boulware would of been a first ballot HOF. He was Von Miller before there was Von Miller. At his peak he was superior to Jason Taylor at his peak. Whom probably is going HOF. If his political career gains real traction he could have legit shot

Very good player who lacks the longevity for induction.  He only played 7 seasons + 222 snaps as an irregular situational rusher in 2005.

Could he have been greater without the injuries, sure.  However, I don't think comparisons to Von Miller are justified.

On 11/14/2016 at 7:10 PM, FlocksGottaFeed said:

I'm with Ray.

Afterwards I believe Ed will go in with Troy. Why? It would be a great PR move for the NFL to celebrate the rarely inducted Safety position given the direction that the league is heading. It will also serve as a tremendous boost to league popularity given the 'True Rivalry - Students of the Game - Soldiers of the Gridiron - Marquee Match-ups' aspect of progressive marketing strategies. Remember, the voters have changed over recent years. Their are younger voters who have different heroes, different appreciations of the game and lived and breathed-in the smoke from the fires of one of the greatest rivalries ever. They lived for it. They'll vote accordingly.

In addition, Ed and Troy have so much respect and admiration for each other and are incredibly well versed in the history of the game that the league could only benefit from embracing their legacy.

 

The HoF voters aren't going to be swayed by such an argument.  Making Reed wait a year for Polomalu would be about as big a slap in the face as you can give Ed Reed.  Granting Troy early access to go in with Reed cheapens the induction of virtually every other first-ballot player.

To get in early in baseball, you have to die, like Clemente or Gehrig.  No one wants that for Troy, so they each get to celebrate as the lone safety in their class.

14 hours ago, January J said:

Imagine if somehow we pulled out both! Longshot I know, but then our path basically becomes beat miami  and just one other game between philly, Pitt. Or a split with Cincinnati..

Not to mention that would catapult us up the power rankings to probably easily top 8. That would truly solidify us as a real threat.

Regardless of the Ravens' final record, road wins against Dallas and New England would make the Ravens "the team nobody wants to face" in the playoffs yet again.  None of Oakland, KC, or NE would feel safe at home.  Denver would likely play the AFCC in Baltimore if they can win 2 on the road.

There is a significant chance for an 8-8 division championship.  It's not too hard to imagine if the Ravens 3 remaining wins include 12/25 vs. Steelers and 1 of the 2 Bengals games.

Should that scenario play out, the Steelers would need to go 5-1 in other games OR the Bengals would need to go 4-1 to win the division from the Ravens.  I don't consider either outcome likely. 

On 11/15/2016 at 6:42 PM, gtalk12 said:

Pitta does not really block, Maxx and Boyle can in my opinion. 

Gillmore and Boyle are the legitimate blockers.  The fact that Gillmore has been on the shelf has forced the team to activate Hurst to act as a blocking TE (15 snaps).  Good blocking TEs are hard to find and Boyle adds some chain-moving receiving ability.  He should be a meaningful addition when activated.

1 hour ago, January J said:

That's why stealing a win vs the cowboys or pats is so important- both games many have chalked up as a loss. Win one of those and our path is so much easier. 

Easier path to be sure if they get either.  I think more importantly, either would demonstrate the Ravens defense may be its old, road-warrior self.  That would be very cool for the playoffs.

The Ravens have a favorable tiebreaker situation, since there are already 2 of 4 tiebreakers with the Steelers they can't lose, but might win.  I believe the Ravens have 2 reasonable paths to the division with 9 wins total:

1.  Beat the Steelers on 12/25.  Do that with 9 wins and the Steelers need to go 6-0 in other games or the Bengals need to go 6-1.

2.  Lose to the Steelers, but win both games versus the Bengals.  Do that with 9 wins and the Bengals are out and Steelers must win all 5 games not against the Ravens or Indianapolis.

More detail here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/15/filmstudy/festivus-musings-afc-north-tiebreakers/

6 hours ago, VermontRaven said:

Some nice stats for our defense:

 

The big 3 stats left out (i assume for emphasis) by the Ravens PR department:

12th in sacks per pass play

28th in 4th down stop percentage

22nd in red zone defense

@rmw10, @VermontRaven you guys are certainly right that's what the team intends to do at corner.  Street corners now are not impressive, but I would still have kept Davis.  He must have continued to show lingering effects of injury in practice.

I just posted OL grading and ATS scoring versus the Browns.  Cliff notes:

1.  Stanley allowed portions of 8 pressure events, but also had 5 highlight blocks (3 run, 2 pass).  The performance is a big relief.

2.  The injury to Lewis is potentially huge.  He had played 2 outstanding games at LG separated by 3 replacement-level games at LT.  C- versus Browns with a tough sack charge explained.

3.  Zuttah wasn't good, but with interior line woes, he probably keeps his job at least a while longer.

4.  No good reason why Ducasse was active over Jensen.

5.  ATS again at 38% and now 40% over last 6 games.  Uggh.

6.  Joe outperforms opportunity set for 2nd straight week.

Article:  http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/14/filmstudy/ronnie-stanley-offensive-line-grades-browns/

Podcast:   http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/14/filmstudy/filmstudy-podcasts/offensive-notes-vs-browns/

Suggs legacy is secure.

The voters don't look exclusively at sacks any more and Suggs has the other boxes checked in terms of longevity, a ring, DPOY, and the outstanding 2-way play PFF is now highlighting.

I don't think he's a sure 1st-ballot guy, but he will go.

On 11/11/2016 at 4:22 PM, VermontRaven said:

In all fairness to Hurst, minus a tiny bit in the preseason, we've only seen him at tackle, not guard. And I have no clie what kind of o lineman Urban would be

 Hurst played 6 snaps at guard versus the Browns when they finally pulled Zuttah.

3 hours ago, rmw10 said:

We have 5 now. Jimmy, Young, Powers, Wright, and Lewis-Harris. 

True.  But I meant just 4 health CBs.  That's been true the last 2 games with Wright on the shelf.

The team is currently carrying just 4 CBs.  That's not sufficient.  They may drop Huff if another CB becomes available.