I've enjoyed the discussion on this board.  Good football fans, not too many trolls.

I hope the folks moving to other boards will consider either using the same handle or identifying themselves.

For what it's worth, I'm Filmstudy everywhere (no alter egos) and also post on RSR, the Sun boards (occasionally), BSL, Ball So Hard University (Reddit), YBR (occasionally), and Baltimore Beatdown.  All have some interesting characters and good conversation.  I have a favorite linked for each. 

I'm sad to see this board go, because the quality of discussion was so good, but I hope the posters for whom this was their only home will find a good place at one of the others.

On 4/6/2017 at 9:49 AM, jazz1988 said:

I know the sacks and tackles are correct but according to sportingcharts.com Brent Urban had 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries last year. He only  had 150 defensive snaps on defense according footballoutsiders.com. The Ravens were very high on when they drafted him in 2014 and I think they said he had first round talent but it maybe reasonable to think with more snaps he could replace Timmy Jernigan production.

I agree, he had outstanding per-snap productivity in 2016 and I thought he had earned more playing time.  

The Ravens should have good production from the 5 tech this season with Kaufusi and Urban.  I'm more concerned about who they have to replace Jernigan as an explosive interior pass rusher, because that sets up a lot of the stunts and green-dog opportunities for ILBs.  Like @BmoreBird22says, there is no natural 3T pass rusher on this team currently:

• Davis could do it, but he's moving off the nose
• Henry could do it, but has yet to play a defensive snap at the NFL level
• Kaufusi and Urban are 5s
• Williams played a lot of 3 last season (when Pierce was also in), but did not show ability to rush the passer there
• Guy alternated with Jernigan as the single down lineman with 5 LBs in the 2nd half and got solid pressure, but he's gone.

I posted my thoughts on the trade here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2017/04/05/filmstudy/ravens-trade-timmy-jernigan-value/

A few points:

• There is no guarantee on the comp pick round
• The comp pick would have been lost if the Ravens sign more FAs or potentially hamstrung the FA process
• The possible comp pick would have come in 2019, the trade draft capital in 2017, so there should be significant discounting applied to comp
• Jernigan played much higher leverage downs than Williams (80% of 3rd downs as opposed to 21% for Williams)
• The Ravens increase the chance to retain CJ Mosley, so it's a choice of cornerstone players

4 hours ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Anyone catch the presser today??

Thoughts on seeing him speak? Any nuggets of info revealed either by Carr or more importantly Harbs/Ozzie?

Didnt catch it but wanted to. Thanks in advance. 

In the interview with Garrett Downing posted on the Ravens website, he said he "got the opportunity to play 1 more year".  I was thinking he had just signed a 4-year deal, which Downing later questioned him about and termed a "prove it" year.  

The other nugget from that interview his set of reasons why he's never missed a game.  I don't want to quote the whole explanation, which starts at 2:20 of the video here:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Durability-A-Big-Part-Of-Why-Ravens-Signed-Brandon-Carr/22fa8bbd-f464-4aa6-9f27-a634c6dc1e8a

I think there is a more simple explanation.  As I mentioned in the article, Carr never sought contact in these games, particularly with running backs (11 tackles were 10 WR and 1 TE).  He also didn't make any attempt to be 2nd man in and play for a strip or even tackle assist.

To quote Deion Sanders:

"Those shoulders are made for suits NOT Brandon Jacobs"

To be fair, Jimmy Smith had 29 solo tackles in 2016, but only 1 against the run. 

7 hours ago, The Raven said:

A "pure press" corner who is selective in applying hands sounds inherently contradictory, but I guess I'll just chalk it up to semantics....

When you say "pure press," do you mean press man, or pressing before dropping into zone (a la tampa 2 style). 

Legitimate question.  By "pure press" I simply meant that's the most important part of his game as a corner (but I see the semantic weakness of that term).  He played at the LoS on the bulk of plays, even against Mike Evans, but used his hands much less against Evans.  

The bulk of his press coverage was man, but there were instances where he dropped to either the underneath zone or deep (in cover 3) after pressing.

I reviewed Carr's 2016 play and posted analysis with (Q,T) references here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2017/03/20/filmstudy/ravens-brandon-carr/

Cliff notes:

• The Ravens are set for a big pass rush improvements from personnel in secondary
• Ball skills on defense are concentrated into just 4 players (Weddle, Young, Smith, Mosley), which is scary for a team that has gone from a historically bad INT total in 2015 to the NFL leading interception rate (3.11%) in 2016.
• Carr is a pure press corner who is selective in applying hands (more often vs smaller receivers) and stays with a receiver well in straight line coverage using bump-and-run techniques.
• Despite a coverage style which involves significant hip and elbow contact past 5 yards, Carr has reduced his penalties over 2014-16 from 12 to 6 to 3.  He was penalized 3 times for DPI, but did not draw a single flag for iC or DH in 2016, which speaks to an understanding of how the game is called.
• Carr avoids tackling contact with RBs (or as 2nd man to the ball) to an extreme degree, which may be the secret to his durabilty.
• He played primarily RCB for the Cowboys, but with Claiborne out vs the Bucs in week 15, he followed Mike Evans on the bulk of plays.
• The team-friendly contract allows the Ravens to consider undervalued, developmental, or injured CBs in this year's draft.

10 minutes ago, Tru11 said:

that has to be the worst cover 2 excecution in the history of the NFL.
i reviewed it and it does not look like cover 2 to me.

weddle is basicially lined up over center and never really leaves the middle of the field to drop deep left
neither outside CB is even remotely close to the LOS or in press coverage.
both are actually standing and dropping deep.
neither of the lbers drop deep enough to protect the deep middle.
neither of the lbers run to the left side to drop deep or take the flat.
there is absolutely no way a safety drops from his safety spot to line up over a slot receiver in cover 2.

if that was cover 2 then everyone including weddle was wrong in their excecution.

i find cover 3 and weddle falling for a fake from tom brady more plausible tbh.

if that was supposed to be cover 2 then frazier has to be the worst secondary coach ever by...
 

 

 

 

As a completely blown coverage, it should look like utter crap.  

Whatever you think of the play, you must see someone should have been following Hogan from the OLS to the ORS.  Elam made the best of an awful situation by closing halfway, but he was not playing SCB.  If you see plays where the Ravens have 10 on the field (or 9, like once in 2016--the only time in my 18-year database), you see players make on-the-fly adjustments like Elam did on that play.

I respect that you're taking some time trying to review the play, but it doesn't seem like we're going to convince each other.  Let's see what some other folks have to say.

Does anyone know how to post the top view from Game Pass to You Tube?  Will it last if posted under a certain time threshold? 

Just now, Tru11 said:

 

Before we continue im actually curious in what you think weddle was supposed to do standing 12 yards deep in the middle of the field.
Also im curious as to why he did not call for adjustments based on hogan going in motion.
 

 

Weddle was the deep safety on the offensive left side, Elam was the deep safety on the ORS.  Simple cover 2 with CBs screwing it up underneath.

I answered your question, now have you reviewed the top view?

Just now, Tru11 said:

it was zone coverage.

webb and elam as the inside corners/safeties where responsible for the flats.
young and wright where responsible for the deep part on their side of the field.
weddle was responsible for the deep middle.
orr and mosley where responsible for the middle of the field.

with no outside receiver on wright side it makes perfect sense to stack behind webb.
it would be foolish to line up all the way outside to cover nobody.

had either edelman or anyone else montioned to the outside you would have seen wright move that way as well.

heck if hogan moved that way , elam would have moved closer to the inside but he would not have followed nor would it have changed any of the alignment other then wright lining up across of him like young did on his side.

This is basicially the principle of the call.
only the pats had no outside receiver on wright side of the field which is why he moved to a spot behind webb which gave an unusual look.

the SS is elam, the S is Webb.
Hogan and edelman are the inside receivers.

 

 

2 problems with this explanation:

There were 2 receivers on Wright's side (the OLS) as the signals were being called (Hogan motioned from left to right).

The play you diagram is for a heavy nickel set (3 safeties).  Webb was playing SCB vs NE at this point in the game.  He simply brain farted and forgot to move with the Receiver motioning to the slot right.

But I'll tell you what.  Find me another instance during the Pees era that meets the criteria:

• 3 WRs unbunched
• Nickel set with 3 CBs
• 2 of the 3 corners are stacked on 1 receiver

It simply doesn't happen unless there is a [profanity deleted]up.

You showed the broadcast video on Youtube.  Do you have access to Game Pass?  Coming from a big Webb fan (look at the tweet above) it's painfully obvious what happened.

4 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Oh, three spread? I'm not entirely sure. 

I just know they used two directly on the LoS to cover Megatron.

Was that the 2011 playoffs?

I just watched the play on top view again and it's pretty obvious Webb failed to follow Hogan motioning from left to right.  Take a look at the coaches film and you can see Elam simply realigns to make the best of a bad situation.

Just now, BmoreBird22 said:

The Saints did it in a similar fashion when they played the Lions in the playoffs. They literally lined up like ST gunners on Johnson in the red zone and both pressed him to keep the ball away from him.

But yeah, other than that, it's a unique alignment.

3 spread receivers?  I'd like to see that if you can point out a specific play.

23 hours ago, Tru11 said:

not really though.
it was cover 3 and weddle was responsible for the deep middle.

young was lined up on mitchell with elam on hogan on 1 side with webb on edelman on the opposite site.
Wright was deep on webb side while Weddle was line up as the deep safety over the middle about 14 yards from LOS.

after the snap young dropped deep letting mitchell go over the middle while webb pressed edelman before passing him on to wright.
Weddle bit on the fake and the rest is history.
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1TP5qF5IN4

at the 50 second mark you will get the best view of where everybody was standing and if you play it from there , you will clearly see young dropping into his deep zone letting his receiver loose and same goes for webb who after pressing edelman drop in his zone and look at brady.

doubt it was a misalignment by webb as he was the only guy in press coverage lol

if weddle does note bite on the fake then this play wont happen.

In all the time I have watched film, I literally cannot recall a single instance where 2 corners (in a standard or nickel set) were stacked versus an unbunched 3-WR set.  And if it were ever to be done, you can be sure Dean Pees wouldn't be the guy to revolutionize.

Webb was absolutely out of position since Wright would have had to be a fish out of water in the slot instead of his normal RCB.

Weddle should not have fallen on the sword for the play, but he probably thought it would help from a leadership perspective. The problem is that anyone reviewing the top view can see that while he did take a step in (bit on PA), the much bigger problem was the corner in the wrong spot.

23 hours ago, Tru11 said:

weddle blew that one though.

 

The TD by Hogan (who blew by Elam) was actually a misalignment by Webb.  Weddle fell on the sword for biting on a fake, but the real problem was the Ravens had 2 corners (Wright and Webb) lined up on the outside left receiver.  That's Wright's responsibility, so Webb (who was moved to play SCB in the game due to ineffectiveness of Powers) should have been on the slot right (Hogan).  Elam attempted to compensate by lining up halfway between SCB and safety, but that did not work as we saw.  Harbaugh kept the matter internal by imply saying words to the effect "We don't need to go into it, but that wasn't Elam's fault."

It's painfully obvious from the top view on Game Pass that Webb was the guy out of position.  

Funny but sad story...Powers had played sooooo badly that game and against Tyler Boyd of Cincinnati that Webb replaced him at SCB.  We score the positioning in the secondary during the game to simplify work afterwards.  When Webb replaced Powers, I was so excited, I Tweeted the following about the move.  Surprising that it was Webb and not Elam that made the blunder.

3 hours ago, The Raven said:

I haven't put much thought into how we'll use him, but from the sounds of things (and as I just said in the other thread), it sounds like this guy could be the prototype "dimebacker," filling the role we probably envisioned for Elam and used Levine for.

That's a great spot for Jefferson, who also could play deep some in 4/5-DB alignments.  The problem is, Pees has used the dime just 148 snaps in his 5 year tenure.  49 of those came last season, but that's misleading, because 47 of those came with Mosley injured (and there was no other choice).  

He covers TEs man-to-man extremely well, including some big men in the games I watched and he switched well in zone underneath.  

Here is my piece on his play:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2017/03/12/filmstudy/tony-jefferson-2016-review/

I invite you to review my notes and the coaches film, but he's not special as a deep safety, because he's not particularly instinctive, nor does he read the QB particularly well (I contend this is probably the biggest reason why his career PD and INT totals are so low).  He does extremely well with defined man and zone reponsibilities.

It's fairly obvious the State of the Ravens comments were directed at Zuttah. I don't think the Ravens can start 2017 with him starting at center with the interior DL size in the division with Shelton, Atkins, Hargrave.

It would be nice to have some depth as well, but that's the spot that needs to be improved.

Merry Christmas everyone.  

On the topic of Jensen vs. Ducasse, here are their cumulative scoring lines for the season as I graded it:

Ducasse: 382 snaps, 334 blocks, 23 missed, 3.5 penetrations (responsibilities for run for a loss), 5.58 pressures, 4 QH, 1.83 sacks, 45 penalty yards, .70 points per play.  I weighted the adjustments for quality of competition, highlights, etc by snaps and his is .04.  Total .74.  That would be a D at guard for an individual game.  Individual game grades F, B-, A, D, D, F.  

Jensen: 251 snaps, 232 blocks, 14 missed, 1 penetration, 7.5 pressures, 2.17 QH, 1 sack, 15 penalty yards, .73 points per play.  His snap weighted adjustment is .07, which is a function primarily of more highlight blocks per snap and the fact he didn't have a disastrous play like Ducasse (safety vs. NE) to wipe out one game's adjustment.  Total .80.  That would be a C at guard for an individual game.  His individual game grades are F, B, B-, C.

From my perspective, Jensen earned a continued chance at guard and should have been allowed to fail before Ducasse got a chance.  He's imperfect, but Jensen (year 3) has significantly more upside than a 7th-year player like Ducasse.  Jensen also offers more in terms of versatility. 

You can have qualms with my system on at least 3 levels:  

1) The individual play grading is something for which I try to provide as much transparency as is possible, particularly in regards to significant downgrades.  Watch along and come up with your own conclusions with (Q, T) references.

2) The weighting.  That's the relativity of scoring between pass and run, relative charges for penalties, etc.  

3) The biggest point, however, is something we don't discuss much.  Specifically, I treat offensive line grading overwhelmingly as a "reduction from 1 system", like batting average or fielding percentage.  So if you want to know how a player can earn enough "extra credit" to earn their way back to 1.00 after 20 yards of penalties, the answer is simply he can't do that any more than a baseball player can get back to a 1.000 batting average or fielding percentage.  Those opportunities have been permanently squandered.  Unlike most other positions in football, the OLman goes through a visible trial on virtually every play, so those opportunities have more in common with AB in baseball and the lineman must seek to minimize the impact of failure.  This is the major difference between me and PFF.

There really isn't a point in having a discussion about weighting unless we can agree that 3) is the correct approach and have at least made some attempt to go through 1) on a play-by-play basis to understand the methodology (regardless of play-by-play disagreement).  

There are some knowledgable OL people, be they former players, analysts, or observant fans on this site.  I welcome discussion on how the OL should best be graded and would love to find a good live medium for that discussion among interested parties.

I posted OL grades earlier today on RSR:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/12/07/filmstudy/ol-grades-miami-tunsil-stanley/

Cliff Notes:

Stanley .76 (B with adjustment)

Tunsil .29 (F by .33 after adjustment)

It was one of the worst games I have ever scored for a guard.

On 12/5/2016 at 7:53 PM, rmw10 said:

Glad you noticed Urban, too.  I thought he did extremely well for the limited umber of snaps he played.

Urban's big play rate may be highest on the team.  I think they need to find a way for him to get more snaps.  Multiple ways to do that, but all may require some scheme change.

9 hours ago, rmw10 said:

I've always thought Guy was an underrated, but important piece to this defense. He does a little bit of everything. I hope we can retain him after the season. 

Guy had an enormous game and was my #2 defensive star:

The other lineman who delivered an exceptional effort was Lawrence Guy (27 snaps).  He received credit for touching down Tannehill on the aborted snap for his only tackle, but he had 2 pressures and a QH in 21 pass rush snaps, drew a holding flag on Tunsil (Q3, 10:53), and also drew the face mask on Tunsil (Q3, 1:35), each of which stalled drives.  One of his pressures was the initial flush on what would become Urban’s cleanup sack (Q4, 11:34)

Defense notes are up.  Lots of snap count information, rest, ATS, and why the Ravens played less than 2 defensive linemen per snap.

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/12/05/filmstudy/ravens-defense-dolphins-adjustments/

I've rewatched a lot of Tunsil doing the defensive notes tonight and he was truly awful, it wasn't just the penalties.

I'll include scoring for Tunsil to compare to Stanley with OL article on Wednesday.

12 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

what are you talking about?

we've had starter contributions from 2 4th round rookies, our 1st rounder and looks like another 4th rounder is virtually splitting carries with the starter at rb, we've had rotational play from our 5th rounder, a udfa both of whom have flashed pass rush ability and have good special teams contributions from one of our other 4th rounders

for the 1st year of a draft that is unbelievable especially considering the 2nd and 3rd round picks have hardly played

Not to mention UDFA is a star rotational DT/NT.  The draft class and broader rookie class are special indeed.

Nobody is debating Tucker would be better than other kickers is poor weather, but he's a big advantage in normal weather or a dome and a smaller advantage the worse the weather is.

I'm not sure if they still do this in racing forms, but it used to be an asterisk meant a horse was a "mudder" with experience/success in sloppy conditions.

This Ravens team has several characteristics I like in a poor-weather thoroughbread:

1. A decent offensive line

2. An outstanding run defense

3. Decent ball skills in the secondary

4. Perhaps the most wind-resistant QB

In fact, the only thing i don't like about the Ravens in poor weather is the impact on Justin Tucker.

These characteristics could play well in the Ravens remaining cold-weather, outdoor schedule and into the playoffs if they qualify.