Filmstudy

For those who are interested, I posted my grades for the offense: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/08/22/filmstudy/ravens-preseason-grades/

Me too. Their pass-blocking scores are extremely event driven. So if you give up a pressure, QH, or Sack, it's a negative score, but if you don't you did your job on the play no matter how bad you look in the process (that matches my method). They do not charge a lineman if his assignment bats a pass, but that's the same as allowing a pressure in my system. Through 2014 I had regular communication with Ben Stockwell who leads their review team to go over QHs and pressure results for Ravens linemen. Unfortunately when they walled off the count and signature statistics in 2015 (the old $26.99 annual package now costs $1,500), they also lost the transparency and free review of fans around the NFL with granular information. Don't get me wrong, they still offer a great product and have changed the way football is watched/understood, but it was the count statistics much more than the grades that I valued.

Regarding Correa: (Q2, 11:28) Tolzien threw right for Ferguson over the leaping Correa. Sandusky called the ball tipped. I'm not positive it was but Correa altered the throw at a minimum. No PD was credited in the Gamebook. (Q2, 8:41) Davis and Correa rush side by side from the OLS and Correa leapt high to deflect Tolzien's pass. Orr came close to an athletic interception among the linemen.

Concur and it's also a matter of the actual 2017 salary. Elam would have made something like $5 million for 2017 had the option been picked up. It's based on slot, so I might be a little high, but that's the right ballpark. There aren't many people outside of the Elam family and associated with the NFL who currently believe Elam is likely to be worth $5 million next season. If he suddenly becomes Eric Berry this season, the Ravens will probably lose him to free agency and receive a compensatory pick. If he doesn't, but proves a useful nickel/dime/ST player/occasional fill in on the back end, the Ravens may be able to sign him to a team-friendly 1-2 year deal. ***Edit***: His option cost was $5.6 million and here's a link with some good analysis for each of the 2013 1st round selections: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/tracking-the-fifth-year-option-outlook-for-all-32-first-round-picks-of-the-2013-nfl-draft-010824994.html

The Ravens gave away Game Pass as a perk to season ticket holders in 2014-15. I suspect they will do it again this season, but have not heard confirmation. The free package is the Cadillac with the coaches video included. That used to sell for $70 per season. For that, you get: Access to broadcast video from all games starting with the beginning of 2009 Coaches video access beginning Tuesday night (no sound, but you get 2 different angles for each play run consecutively) Play indexing which allows you to skip around in the broadcast or coaches video to plays of interest (the indexing isn't always done perfectly, but it's something) Condensed games so you can watch the entire game in approximately 25-30 minutes with only snap to whistle action. I write my articles with the (Q, T) references so you can watch the video on Game Pass as you read if you so desire. You can click directly to the play in question and see if I'm missing something. If you're a season ticket holder, I can't see any reason not to access the service for free. If you're not, for the price of a good video game, you can watch all sorts of football for a full year including some great old Ravens wins when you have a hankering.

Side-by-side high-low blocks are no longer allowed, but a single blocker can still block an opponent low. Take a look at the first 2 plays, if you have the video. Those are legal cut block attempts.

That is really cool.

Stanley played 25 non-penalty snaps, up from 22 in the opener. Regarding the offensive RoY talk...I probably would also have called that impossible a few years back, but PFF has changed football by offering grades to compare offensive linemen that are updated weekly. You don't have to like their grades, but there is much improved information flow on the offensive and defensive lines than there was just a few years ago. There may not be a great rookie QB this season, which improves his chances, but he'll need to play very well.

I really need to wait to comment until I'm done scoring. I had 4 plays scored when I made the original "not as impressive" comment and that included missed cut blocks on the first 2 snaps. After that, Stanley was near perfect. I charged him (harshly) with a shared pressure (Q2, 1:04) where he gave ground, but Lewis got backed up into Johnson. Aggregate raw score for Stanley was .84, which would translate to a low A at tackle including adjustment. Technically, he was "not as impressive" as the first game, but still very impressive.

Ditto that. Correa either had 2 batted passes or altered the throw on the 2nd. He only played 20 snaps. Very solid game.

I agree, rmw10. I look at coverage a little differently. Maybe think of it this way...the defender needs to use his "coverage radius" to defend the receiver's catch radius under then enormous constraints of the rulebook, which favor the offensive player. Part of doing so effectively means you frighten the opposing QB with an interception by being in position to do so if the ball is off the mark. None of this stops NFL QBs from throwing deep balls up for grabs into single coverage, because of the offensive advantages. The drop behind Levine (Q4, 10:45) was an example of good coverage where he still needed the receiver to fail to collect the football.

Working on it now. Stanley played 4 series, but was not as impressive as in the opener.

Hi folks. My comments and grades for the defensive players are posted now: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/08/21/filmstudy/no-man-unmuddied/ Very interesting game defensively with Pees reverting to nickel for almost the entire game (probably due to injuries). Levine played the entire 2nd half as the slot corner, a position that forced a number of coverages well down the field with unimpressive team results (but demonstrated cover ability). He was outstanding in short space where he will be used as the dime. Not sure about the Jerraud Powers hook. Has anyone seen an injury note on him, or was that done for ineffectiveness? Elam had the first shot playing nickel after he left, which is also out of position for him, but that's where he made the 2 open-field tackles in 4 plays. "Drive ending" is a term I use for tackles. I distinguish them from others, because they have higher leverage and any tackle that makes the other team punt or otherwise give up possession has value. On a day of fairly lousy pass rush, the Ravens still had some individual standouts Judon, Urban, Correa. I thought the major letdown was the offensive line, which I'm looking at now and will post tomorrow.

These are all valid points and I understand that it seems like my (change in expectation) grades are inconsistent with my probabilities. And I've certainly harped on the usage of Levine in practice as a significant indicator, so Lewis, who's been in the 2nd set of safeties with Elam seems safe by the same logic. RMW10 also pointed out that the contracts are not a huge deal, which I agree on the dollars component (but not the control). A point I failed to mention is that the Ravens have a fairly old crew of safeties, particularly when weighted by expected playing time. Brooks (24), Elam (24), Lewis (28), Webb (30), Weddle (31). Levine, who's role is a little different is 29. If the Ravens cut the youngest player (Brooks), who they also control for another year cheaply, it's a big gamble. The team should stay younger when it can do so with minimal pain. In a way, Elam will make this team or not independent of the cover-2 battle between Brooks and Lewis. Among other things, he provides value as the backup dime and the coaches will need to be convinced he can play well enough in short space to keep him. We can argue about who has more upside between Brooks and Lewis as a cover-2, but I would agree Lewis is ahead now. However, after 2017, the team might want to resign Brooks, but they almost certainly will not want to commit to another contract with Lewis at age 30.

I'll just make a few comments on the 3-way (some might say 4-way) safety battle at the risk of starting a bigger fire: 1. I think the Ravens will keep 5 guys with Weddle, Webb, and Levine as the locks. I won't repeat what I said about Levine earlier in this thread, but it just doesn't make any sense to cut him. 2. Brooks has the advantage over the other 3 based on the combination of his 2-year option (he is signed through 2017, no RFA). So based solely on contract structure and $, Brooks is the guy you keep all things being equal. In fact, Brooks has looked good to me in practice and seems to be playing fast. I want to see more of that in the final 3 games. He could fill in at nickel to finish a game, but I don't think he's got the frame to play dime, even though he and Levine list at exactly the same height and weight. He's got the most upside as a cover-2 safety through the end of 2017. 3. Lewis also has 2 years of team control, but at an increasing salary ($1.4M in 2016, $1.8M in 2017 per Brian McFarland's cap numbers). There is a cap savings of $900,000 for cutting him this season (offset by the low man on rule of 51). The big problem I see with him is that he has been an absentee too often in camp. He has the most proven cover-2 ability of these 3, but that is honestly saying very little. IMO, he's a poor tackler with some fragility and that is not a good combination. As to trade value, please don't kid yourself, he has none. Conditional 7th is the most you could get, particularly if his participation the remainder of the preseason is spotty. 4. Elam will be UFA after this season since the Ravens declined to pick up his 5th-year option before the season began. I don't think the Ravens project any "special sauce" value (contribution to compensatory draft pick formula) for him, and that's certainly appropriate if he's not starting. The Ravens will save approximately $1.3M (less 51st offset) by cutting Matt, so he's the biggest savings. One thing we don't get a good look at in practice is Elam's biggest NFL weakness, tackling. The Ravens have not done live tackling to date and today was the last practice open to the media. So we can't see what might have improved in his technique other than in games. He's not a cover-2 safety, and I'd be a little surprised if he gets a chance there again unless dictated by injury. However, he would be the first up as the backup dime (a position I think is critical to the 2016 Ravens) and has the physical makeup and speed for the role. A crucial part of that role is being a good tackler on 3rd down passes thrown short of the sticks, so he's got something to prove the rest of preseason. If I had to handicap it now, I'd say there is a 15-20% chance the roster will work itself out due to an injury to one of these 4 players or (shudder) Webb or Weddle. There is probably also a 10-15% chance the team keeps 6 safeties (perhaps due to ST losses at another position, like corner). Assuming 5 is the number, and the depth chart continues with no red cross, I'd say the percentage chance to make the team are Brooks 85%, Elam 65%, Lewis 50%,

Thanks. She's a keeper. If you're interested, I wrote a piece that includes a description of our Sundays together: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/07/20/road-rsr/the-making-of-filmstudy/ To put it simply, there is no way I could do what I do without her.

My better half, Maureen, gets credit for this, She records the entire secondary every play at the game, because it can be difficult/time consuming to get it from broadcast video and can't wait for the all-22.

Here are Levine's snaps by drive as we recorded it: D1-4: Did not play (ravens played Mosley/Orr in nickel on passing downs) D5: Entered with dime on 3rd and 13 D6 (end of half drive): Played all 7 snaps in dime. D7 (Q3 begins): Played 3/9, 2/11, 3/10, all dime D8 (Q3): Played 3/20, dime D9 (Q3, crossover to Q4): 2/9, 3/9, 2/10, 3/9, 3/3, 3/8, all dime D10: Did not play To summarize: --He played 18 snaps, every one in obvious passing situations and every one with 6 DBs on the field --The Ravens didn't use anyone else in the dime role and did not deploy a single 6-DB alignment without Levine --Levine lined up somewhere in the box on every snap as a traditional dime, but some was at the LoS where he both blitzed and dropped and some was in a position next to the other ILB (Brown), who was calling defensive signals --He didn't play at all with Zach Orr, who played in both nickel and standard situations over the first 4 drives. I think it's important to note the Ravens want to look at a lot of players during a PS game. It's not surprising Levine got a limited number of snaps, because the Ravens want to see what ILBs Orr, Correa, Onwuasor, Conner can provide in coverage. What is a little surprising is that no one else was auditioning for the dime role. It's clearly Levine's to lose.

There was one Ravens player who provided essentially 0 in terms of draft value (during his first 5 seasons). But he had the light go on in year 6 under a team-friendly FA contract. That was Dwan Edwards. Last year, Levine played just 8 defensive snaps. For the playoff-bound 2014 Ravens, however, he played 226 at both corner and safety. Do you think it's fair, under those circumstances to compare Levine's versatility to that of Keenan Reynolds as a QB or Eric Weddle as a holder?

Outstanding discussion, guys. I'm sorry to miss a few hours of it. If I understand Ravensfan23 correctly, he has 2 principle objections to Levine making the team: 1. He doesn't do enough outside of special teams to justify a spot 2. The dime itself isn't all that meaningful a role as deployed by Pees Basically, I'd say the dime, as played by past Ravens defenses is a tremendously important role, because it can be 35% of the snaps (Lewis, 2000). That's the same percentage of snaps as a typical rotational defensive lineman. More importantly, they are the snaps with the highest leverage (impact on W/L probability). Ravensfan23 accurately points out that the dime has been a big nothing under Pees (99 snaps in 4 seasons), but I'm excited about the arrival of Frazier and "versatility" comments by Harbuagh indicating it's coming back in a meaningful way. Your skepticism of Pees acceptance is understood (and shared by me), but I am hoping circumstances have finally conspired to force its usage if it is not, in fact, Dean's design. The fact that Harbaugh quoted Pees as commenting on the need to be able to play dime, the practice role of Levine, the usage of Anthony versus the Panthers, and his success in the role all point to many more dime snaps than in past years. Could it fall apart from here? Sure. Levine could play poorly and Pees could simply decide Orr (in the nickel) is a better choice on 3rd down. Levine could be hurt and Elam or another option could play poorly in the role. Rest assured though, Levine will make the team even if he isn't the dime by the end of camp.

In practice Levine is paired with Arthur Brown on a unit, but that's not related to down/distance/game situation. It's just a way to divide the reps. Suffice it to say, Pees would never want Levine in the game on 1st and 10 unless it was an obvious passing situation (end of half or game, for example). So I wouldn't look at the no-tackle practice pairings as having significant portent. In fact, after watching practice, it was very obvious how he would be used in terms of down and distance and that's exactly what happened on his 18 snaps Thursday (every one a high-likelihood passing snap). No one else is practicing for the dime role. Pees mentioned Elam has taken a few snaps in the role, but he's not practicing with the LBs like Levine is. Matt would be the next logical choice, but the job is clearly Levine's to lose. In terms of future value, neither player has option value. Both are in contract years, because the Ravens did not pick up the year-5 option on Elam.

Levine probably won't get a ton better, but he's being cast into a FAR more important role as the dime. Because he'll be on the field for the highest leverage downs, his impact on the team can be much greater than it ever has been. And the guys who excel at the dime have always been journeymen. You never have Eric Berry or Ed Reed as your dime.

I like reducing Suggs' snaps as a means to keep him fresh, but the problem I see is that the Ravens may need his run-stopping skills more than his pass rush. Do you think Suggs could accept a run-stopping, 2-down role if that's how he fits best?

Exceptional piece. Harbaugh is extremely polished, yet natural and down to earth. He's paranoid as hell about giving information on injuries or strategy, but still tries to address each question at the podium, no matter how inane (ex: "How important are home playoff games?") I know he would like to be straightforward, but can't always within the context of his job. I try not to ask him questions which will force him to drift into coach speak. I take his comments very seriously, and he's someone I respect both in terms of his accomplishments and how he handles himself personally. I did a piece on something he said recently and I think it's pretty clear he knew what he was going to say if/when he got the question, but he did the best he could not to show up any of his constituents: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/07/29/camp-notes/ravens-defensive-backs-dime-defense/ He and Pees may or may not see eye-to-eye on the defensive scheme, but because John Harbaugh is John Harbaugh their dirty laundry won't be aired by him.