Filmstudy

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Everything posted by Filmstudy

  1. Definitely things to like, but the Bills are damaged goods. Both starting tackles lost by halftime. The Ravens will likely get a good contribution from their defense, but the blueprint of this game isn't one I think will work against the bulk of the league.
  2. It will happen in short yardage situations, and I suspect opposing teams will have a lot of difficulty scheming against it. Those 2 are less likely to produce pressure personally against the pass, but as RaineV1 points out, there are many ways to scheme blitzes behind or around them. Those guys will be able to turn 3 sets of shoulders between them on many plays.
  3. I like both of them on short yardage. The current set of linemen could mean even more of a passing-down focus for Jernigan.
  4. I agree on this, but it's going to mean the combination of Orr, Mosley, and Levine will have to keep Tyrod in the pocket.
  5. I don't know how any Ravens fan could be not worried about this game: --The Ravens are expected to win (a little less that 62% by the gambling public) --In some ways, a close win is not good enough to validate contention (this is not true of all permutations of a close win, of course) --Any significant injury will bring the spectre of age and 2015 back. --Rookie contribution is important, because the team has a significant portion of its talent in older players. --The Ravens have talked about defensive flexibility in the preseason, but what, aside from the dime, will they bring out in game 1? --A loss will be devastating in terms of the team's chance to make the postseason. So the Ravens need a 2-score+ win with no significant injury issues, solid rookie contributions/indicators, and a change of scheme from Pees. The chance of a win is decent, but the probability of the type of win that can move the needle on expectations for 2016 is much smaller.
  6. Difficult to sit folks on game day with this roster, but here's my shot at the 7: Powers, Dumervil, Dixon because of injury Hurst because he's the last OL and teams typically dress 7. Price because he's the CB who has not yet played S (Canady plays) Henry because the Ravens decide they can get through the opener with 5 DL--Scares me a little, but the Ravens average approximately 2.4 DL per play, so the other DL will average 48% of snaps. Correa because he has the least contribution this week of the OLBs and Carter can take up a portion of pass rush responsibilities plus ST. Two other possibilities I considered were Maxx Williams (if not all the way healthy) and Canady, but I think they'll both be active.
  7. You guys aren't being fair to the Bills fans. You need to compare him to the Ravens alternative: Completes: 71 Attempts: 123 Yards: 799 TDs: 4 INTs: 5 Passer Rating: 71.2 Sacked: 14 times for 91 yards Fumbles: 8 Wouldn't you rather have that guy? So who is this guy: Tony Banks? Trent Dilfer, Scott Mitchell? Nope. It's the composite of the last 4 passing games for Bills QBs in the playoffs. And before you say it, I know it's not a fair comparison. The game has changed a lot since that era.
  8. I saw the same thing, and I just accept it. Bills fans give absolutely 0 credit (or even notice) to the fine rookie class the Ravens have. In fact, the only mention of rookie "contributions" was to say the Ravens will start an all-rookie left side OL for the first time in forever, which Rex should be able to exploit (that may be true, but the Ravens have still upgraded those positions significantly) 2 things I expect to see when I go to opposing message boards: 1) An underappreciation for anything the opposition is doing. 2) A feeling that everything that happens during a game is a function of their team's players and not the opponent. I don't know that we are that much different.
  9. I'll take one on each side of the ball: Offense: Crockett Gillmore takes advantage of the Buffalo linebackers Defense: Anthony Levine allows the pass rush more green lights with good work as the spy on Taylor. He earns the nickname "BASF" for the company that "doesn't make all the products, but they make other products better": He doesn't mind when fans think it means Bad A** Safety.
  10. No game changes expectation for the season more than the opener. No game this early should be "must win", but I feel this is a "must validate contention" game for the Ravens. Ideally that would mean a lopsided win at home with one side of the ball showing up above expectation. The game is no gimmee, but if they lose at home to a dinged up Bills team, it's a bad sign for the season to be sure.
  11. Wow. This is a lot of changes. Fans should really understand the transitional nature of preseason numbers before ordering (including creating custom) jerseys, but some of these involve players who have been here a while (Campy, Elam, Wright). Elam had worn #26 for 4 seasons and it looks like Powers will take his number. Did Elam want #33 or was this all about Powers being on the active roster and wanting #26?
  12. Obviously, they wanted Doom back, but the extra roster spot should have been a serious consideration. From the sound of it, he reaggravated the injury, so it may not have been something they could have predicted.
  13. Hester has 19 career TDs and 36 career fumbles (16 of which he recovered himself). There are 2 levels on which I don't like the move: 1. The team gets older, a trend that has been very strong over the last 2 days. 2. If it impedes the chance to sign Josh Sitton, it's a disservice to the team's chance to win this season.
  14. The Ravens don't have a decent backup tackle (Hurst made the roster despite all the competition for spots). Lewis looks like he could be OK at guard. He's a fighter to be sure, but with pass blocking issues that every DC will try to exploit until he and the RBs prove they can stop the blitzes. By acquiring Sitton, the Ravens have Lewis as a backup tackle to go with a big upgrade a guard. Kills 2 birds.
  15. We've got the same roster projection with a couple of differences. First, I think the Ravens will keep Canady after Thursday's performance at S/CB. That paves the way for both Powers and Lewis to be cut, which will make the team much younger and conserve a roster spot to reduce the defense to 25. On the offensive side, I have Hurst out and Ducasse in with the expectation that the extra spot created from the defense will be used to acquire a serviceable backup tackle or KR/PR. If the Ravens find a guy to return kicks as well as a tackle, then I think Ducasse would be the logical cut. Everyone asks, but the only way the team keeps Ochi is if they send Carl Davis to IR. I don't see that happening and the team would be pressured to cut Ochi later in the season when short-term injuries mount to fill the inactive slots.
  16. I think the Ravens will see better use of depth at WR this season. The team is blessed with 3 legitimate vertical threats and that can wear on a defense if used in rotation. The Saints have been effective in their best years with this sort of rotation. In a 65-snap game, assuming 2.4 receivers per play, they have 156 WR snaps to distribute to what will likely be 5 active receivers. I'd like to see the highest individual workloads in the vicinity of 50 snaps. Perhaps more importantly, I'd like to see 20+ snaps from each of the primary vertical threats.
  17. I fear Rex's ability to scheme a win defensively. However, I think Lewis, and the Lewis/Zuttah A gap in particular will be the focus of blitzes until they and the RBs prove they can handle them.
  18. Butler played 10 special teams snaps this preseason, but I couldn't tell you in what capacity. I think you're making the best possible case to cut Butler (limited ST contribution), but I still think the combination of his offense and limited special teams contribution far outweighs Campanaro's combination. In addition, I think he'll practice for a larger role in kick coverage and kick/punt returns if he makes the roster. Those snaps are broadly spread in the preseason. Given his receiving characteristics, Butler seems like an ideal player to have on your "hands" team to counter onside kick attempts.
  19. Thanks, Maryland. I read your notes from the Saints game and thought they were spot on. Ochi reminds me of a more slender Harrison with advantage pad level and Brooks is still not instinctive enough to be on time for many plays.
  20. Really good notes. A few comments: 1. I agree on Mallett/Johnson. If there is a trade offer for either you can keep the other. 2. I'm mildly concerned about Moore's ability to track deep balls, specifically how he seems to slow while looking for the football. He would not have had either of the deep balls last night, anyway. 3. I'm not sure what Campy has done to earn a roster spot and if the team is working out Devin Hester, they're clearly dissatisfied with Campanaro. I expect him to be cut.
  21. I think the bolded text is most likely. KLM has value to someone, so Ozzie is probably working the phones today looking for a trade partner.
  22. Hi folks. I posted my notes on the defensive players along with my prediction of 25 defenders they will keep: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/09/02/filmstudy/ravens-23-saints-14/ The big cuts I am projecting are Lewis and Powers, which will help the Ravens get a lot younger if they do so. I had been telling people that Buffalo might be a natural landing spot for Pierce with their injuries and suspension on the DL, but I don't believe the Ravens want to face that behemoth on 9/11. Much of the usage of players like Levine, Price, Canady, and Wilson provides insights into their possible inclusion on the roster, but that reasoning is all included in my article if your interested. Ravens fans will riot if Butler is not retained. He's simply outplayed Campanaro for the last WR spot, but the Ravens may look outside the organization for their return man. The Ravens definitely have surplus value to trade at WR, OLB, and perhaps DL. The 3 players most likely to be traded for some return are KLM, Carter, and Campanaro.
  23. Once he's on the Ravens practice squad, if he is subsequently claimed, he must go to the active roster. But the player can sign to another team's PS now after passing through waivers. So the player can self-direct to a better opportunity, particularly in terms of the competition in front of him.
  24. The troubling statistics for Reynolds this preseason have been 1 target/0 receptions in 68 offensive snaps. If he goes through waivers, I think some team with a more clearly defined set of top receivers will take a chance on him as a project. Ryan, do you know if an IR designation has any impact on Keenan's Navy commitment? I don't see how it reasonably could, but it has been suggested.
  25. Thanks for the thoughtful response. He's played 58 preseason snaps to date. He wasn't credited with any QH vs. the Lions, but the one he had was (Q2, 6:52) which would have been negated by OPI81, but wasn't even noted in the Gamebook. I rewatched the play you mentioned (Q3, 8:02). I could see that interpreted as pressure from Correa, but I don't think he knocked the QB down. By QBH, did you mean hurry? Both you and Joeyflex5 are pointing out good, specific plays. We definitely need to compare notes on Correa after game the 4th game when I expect he'll play a lot more ILB.