Filmstudy

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Everything posted by Filmstudy

  1. HI folks, I know I'm jumping in late, but I'm got some charts and simplifying explanations posted here: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/28/filmstudy/ravens-steelers-tiebreakers-week-13/ The Cliff notes version is the Ravens could possibly lose the division tiebreaker to the Steelers, but they almost certainly won't tie the Steelers if they do so.
  2. You're exactly right about when you saw Levine. He played dime after Mosley's injury versus the Skins, then against the Giants and Jets in that same dime role. Mosley returned after the bye and we have not seen Levine on defense since except for the final series at cover-2 safety against the Browns. He played some nickel in the first several games as well. There are really 2 players keeping Levine off the field in passing situations, and Mosley isn't one of them, because he's the signal caller. The 2 are: Orr: Who has difficulty in coverage, despite being a decent pass rusher and some speed. McClellan: Who is a regular moving piece in the 5-up, 1-down pass rush lineup Pees often fields (Jernigan, 2 OLBs, Mosely, Orr, McClellan). McClellan is a fish out of water in coverage and despite a recent sack, has no more ability to get to the QB than Levine (both need to use quickness and would have great difficulty winning a 1-on-1 battle). As an aside, McClellan lined up at DT from a 4-point stance on the 3rd and 22 play (Q4, 6:53) and was flagged for IH. There are 2 ways to get Levine on: 1) Move Orr up to the LoS and remove McClellan 2) Remove Orr for Levine. Either way should give the Ravens more coverage options with little reduction in pass rush. The 2000 Ravens used method 2) to replace Jamie Sharper on 3rd down (with Corey Harris). The following year, Sharper became an integral part of the pass defense, so they used method 1), but still played a dime DB next to Ray Lewis.
  3. I sooo want this to actually be true, but the Ravens have not played a snap of dime since Mosley returned and they played just 1 dime snap prior to his injury against the Skins. I'm not shocked Elam got the back-end playing time he did against the Bengals, but Levine has slipped on the depth chart since the start of the season despite a number of injuries. On Sunday Elam missed a tackle on Burkhead (stiffarm) and fell down in coverage of Eifert (Q4, 1:27) on the 4th and 3 conversion when Eifert pushed off for separation and Matt tried to recover.
  4. Thanks for this summary, @rmcjacket23 . I like to use bullets to make subpoints, but I can't in my pieces, because it doesn't show up well when read on typical mobile phone browsers. No, I'm not kidding. Anyway, this is a much clearer summary of the items in 3, in particular. It's unfortunate they probably won't be able to block passes against too many QBs. Dalton is 6'2" and every other QB the rest of the way is 6'4" and up. However, if you look, the Ravens weren't just blocking those passes with their fingertips.
  5. One thing I haven't seen mentioned much is the early reassignment of Powers. He was twice beaten by Boyd for 18 yard gains (1 negated) in Q1, so Pees reduced his role to some 1st/2nd downs the remainder of the game (19 snaps). After that, Webb moved to SCB on obvious passing downs and Elam played 25 snaps of safety. Significant detail about the adjustment and other elements of the defensive effort are here: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/29/filmstudy/timely-results-pass-rush-bengals/
  6. I would put Chris Chester's draft value ahead of both Johnson and Edwards: Chester started 47 games as a Raven and only left because the team developed a potential HoF guard, had a Pro Bowler at the other spot, and signed Matt Birk at Center. He wasn't good enough to play with those great Ravens interiors, but he was good value for their first 4 years. He was also a rare excellent FA signing for the Redskins who made all 64 starts on a 4-year deal and raised his level of play. He's still in the NFL at age 33. Patrick Johnson had speed and scored the TD that gave the Titans their first loss in their new home, but he caught just 58 balls in his Ravens career, not enough for a #2. Dwan Edwards produced essentially nothing on his first 5 years (54 tackles, 14 starts, 1 INT). After missing his entire 5th season with injury, he returned cheap, had a productive season, and was off to free agency. He's one of the few players ever to blossom after his rookie deal. I wrote an article ranking the Ravens 2nd round picks in 2012 when the Ravens finally released Sergio Kindle. I include it here, because it includes all 3 players. Looks like I whiffed on Upshaw, but pretty much nailed the call on Osemele 6 games into his career. Osemele was actually moved to LG for the first playoff game in 2012. http://russellstreetreport.com/2012/10/21/street-talk/ranking-the-ravens-2nd-round-draft-picks/
  7. Originally, I thought SCB only, but I think he's the new outside with 4 DBs, SCB in the nickel. Like Webb and has hands, speed, and tackling skills Webb did as a young player. We'll see where he fits with ability to be left on an island with bigger receivers, but he brings a lot to the position.
  8. I would like them to stop pushing cap dollars forward for Webb, even though his tag will be high next year. If they draft a safety, I'd like someone on the extreme end of the spectrum. Either great ball skills or the outstanding short-area coverage skills to play dime. I don't think the Ravens will do as well someone who's a little of both. How do you feel about resigning Elam for 2 years at, say, $3-4 M total?
  9. BTW, OL scoring is up. I saw Zuttah got a good grade from PFF. He blocked well when not penalized, but the impact of the penalties was enormous and not properly weighted by PFF's system. Part of it is that pass blocking is simply more important that run blocking due to leverage. The other is that the mechanism for scoring balances positives and negatives with poor weighting. That game was an F by a wide margin in terms of his total contribution. http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/23/filmstudy/jeremy-zuttah-penalties-costly-dallas/
  10. The DL is amazing value. There is no expensive vet in the group and the group is healthy. Good combination for value, but it will change in next 2 years. The OL is also inexpensive, but that's about to change if they resign Wagner. LB has Suggs, Doom, and a R1 pick. This could be much lower next season. S is the big waste spot with Webb and Elam big cap numbers. The Ravens need to get younger here ASAP.
  11. The Ravens have a favorable tiebreaker situation, since there are already 2 of 4 tiebreakers with the Steelers they can't lose, but might win. I believe the Ravens have 2 reasonable paths to the division with 9 wins total: 1. Beat the Steelers on 12/25. Do that with 9 wins and the Steelers need to go 6-0 in other games or the Bengals need to go 6-1. 2. Lose to the Steelers, but win both games versus the Bengals. Do that with 9 wins and the Bengals are out and Steelers must win all 5 games not against the Ravens or Indianapolis. More detail here: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/15/filmstudy/festivus-musings-afc-north-tiebreakers/
  12. Suggs' replacement isn't on the team yet. He'll be a top of the first round selection.
  13. No HTH?
  14. Very good player who lacks the longevity for induction. He only played 7 seasons + 222 snaps as an irregular situational rusher in 2005. Could he have been greater without the injuries, sure. However, I don't think comparisons to Von Miller are justified.
  15. The HoF voters aren't going to be swayed by such an argument. Making Reed wait a year for Polomalu would be about as big a slap in the face as you can give Ed Reed. Granting Troy early access to go in with Reed cheapens the induction of virtually every other first-ballot player. To get in early in baseball, you have to die, like Clemente or Gehrig. No one wants that for Troy, so they each get to celebrate as the lone safety in their class.
  16. Regardless of the Ravens' final record, road wins against Dallas and New England would make the Ravens "the team nobody wants to face" in the playoffs yet again. None of Oakland, KC, or NE would feel safe at home. Denver would likely play the AFCC in Baltimore if they can win 2 on the road.
  17. There is a significant chance for an 8-8 division championship. It's not too hard to imagine if the Ravens 3 remaining wins include 12/25 vs. Steelers and 1 of the 2 Bengals games. Should that scenario play out, the Steelers would need to go 5-1 in other games OR the Bengals would need to go 4-1 to win the division from the Ravens. I don't consider either outcome likely.
  18. Gillmore and Boyle are the legitimate blockers. The fact that Gillmore has been on the shelf has forced the team to activate Hurst to act as a blocking TE (15 snaps). Good blocking TEs are hard to find and Boyle adds some chain-moving receiving ability. He should be a meaningful addition when activated.
  19. Easier path to be sure if they get either. I think more importantly, either would demonstrate the Ravens defense may be its old, road-warrior self. That would be very cool for the playoffs.
  20. The big 3 stats left out (i assume for emphasis) by the Ravens PR department: 12th in sacks per pass play 28th in 4th down stop percentage 22nd in red zone defense
  21. @rmw10, @VermontRaven you guys are certainly right that's what the team intends to do at corner. Street corners now are not impressive, but I would still have kept Davis. He must have continued to show lingering effects of injury in practice. I just posted OL grading and ATS scoring versus the Browns. Cliff notes: 1. Stanley allowed portions of 8 pressure events, but also had 5 highlight blocks (3 run, 2 pass). The performance is a big relief. 2. The injury to Lewis is potentially huge. He had played 2 outstanding games at LG separated by 3 replacement-level games at LT. C- versus Browns with a tough sack charge explained. 3. Zuttah wasn't good, but with interior line woes, he probably keeps his job at least a while longer. 4. No good reason why Ducasse was active over Jensen. 5. ATS again at 38% and now 40% over last 6 games. Uggh. 6. Joe outperforms opportunity set for 2nd straight week. Article: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/14/filmstudy/ronnie-stanley-offensive-line-grades-browns/ Podcast: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/14/filmstudy/filmstudy-podcasts/offensive-notes-vs-browns/
  22. Suggs legacy is secure. The voters don't look exclusively at sacks any more and Suggs has the other boxes checked in terms of longevity, a ring, DPOY, and the outstanding 2-way play PFF is now highlighting. I don't think he's a sure 1st-ballot guy, but he will go.
  23. Hurst played 6 snaps at guard versus the Browns when they finally pulled Zuttah.
  24. True. But I meant just 4 health CBs. That's been true the last 2 games with Wright on the shelf.
  25. The team is currently carrying just 4 CBs. That's not sufficient. They may drop Huff if another CB becomes available.