Purple_City39

Bold predictions towards a team we routinely struggle with that also swept us last year and another team that while might be down is loaded with playmakers and is a bitter rival that will always seek to destroy us.

 

I'm not saying it can't happen, but can and will are two different realities. I think we will more than likely split with Pitt, and Joe and the entire team always look like poop against the Bengals. I can recall I think two or maybe three good games Joe has had against them. Really, the Monday night opener was the only really good game he ever had against the Bengals, and he had one or two semi decent games against them his rookie year and one decent game in the 2011 closer.

 

I think we've won 1 game against them where Joe had a turnover, besides that I think whenever Joe turns the ball over against them we routinely lose.

That's great and all.  At one point it was said that Joe struggled against the Steelers with Ben.  Then Joe struggled against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.  Then Joe struggled against the Steelers in the playoffs.  Things change.

We've never had a draft for Joe where they actually got him weapons.  The Bengals aren't some great team but they do luck out against us regularly.  Take the two games last season (especially the Green bobble TD game winner).  We just need that edge to swing those games in our favor and I think this draft, and theirs, just swung it our way.

They Steelers we've been fine against for awhile.  They showed in the playoffs that all that firepower is useless if even one part is missing.  Their entire passing arsenal still struggled against our depleted defense @ home.

I don't think it's a bold prediction to say the team that's won the division in 2 of the past 4 seasons, gone further in the playoffs every season since 2011, and drafted the best will win the division in 2015.  Even if we go 1-1 against both of them, we'll still perform better against the remaining schedule than they will.  We won't get swept either.

Does anybody think we would have picked Nelson agholer over perriman or think he was even on our board ?

I'm going to say no.  The Ravens may have stated that the size of the WR wasn't important but I don't believe that.  They also stated that they were perfectly fine with the WRs they had right?

Trestman likes big WRs.  When you have no deep threat on a team with a strong armed QB, you take the fastest WR in the draft who is also a bigger WR.  The Ravens scouted Perriman hard, according to that one UCF coach.  They'd have drafted him regardless imo

Pittsburgh, Cincinnati?

2nd and 3rd in the division unless Cleveland surprises folks

Having a good QB probably has something to do with it. I think people make too much out of Ozzie's history drafting WRs when its only been in the last few years where we've had a decent enough offense.

Yeah, Flacco does deserve credit here also.  How many guys have come in and seemed to have instant chemistry early on in recent years?

Boldin, Smith Sr, Aiken, Brown, Campanaro, Daniels, etc.  Some times it gets worse as the season wears on (which could be attributed to a lot of things) but initial reaction with most receiving options in recent years has been about how they formed very quick chemistry with Joe.

Expectations are simple.  2015 AFC North division champions.  If this team can stay relatively healthy in the secondary at at key offensive positions like QB and WR, we'll win the division.  The o-line, RBs, and even TEs can take a hit or two imo, the d-line can probably take 3 (although I pray we stay all around healthy).  The secondary, WR, and QB positions will determine how we do imo.  Stay healthy there and I can't imagine that we don't win the division

Call me crazy but what good is Juice anyway? I'd rather drop him than Boyle or Waller for a final roster piece

He's a FB that can easily block a defender to give the QB time and he can also sneak out the backfield since he also has good hands.  Think about pretty much any of Juice's catches.  He's usually wide open and he usually gets a lot of yards after the catch because of it.  As a FB, he's almost never going to garner much attention in the passing game so having him catch a pass or two a game is likely going to give you a big gain/first down.  And as a FB he's still a run blocker. 

I'd much rather have Juice on the field than Boyle easily.  Waller I like a lot more due to potential but if he can't put that potential together, give me the guy that'll save my QB some pain and probably get me at least 10 yards out the backfield

I called it out to everyone I was watching the fight with, Manny isn't hitting Floyd.

 

Everyone thought Manny was going to force Floyd to fight differently, the contrast in styles etc etc.

 

It was boring to alot of people because Floyd was dominating as the fight went on and most people just don't like his defensive style.

 

Defense wins championships....see what I did there? 

Manny was successful early on.  Flloyd seemed ready to fight it out up until that 3rd round (or was it 4th) hit to the face that stumbled him.  After that, Mayweather did things his way.

I fully disagree with the many people that say Floyd ran all much.  In actuality, he played Pacquiao from early on.  Taunted him into punches (like when he kept saying "nope" after 3 consecutively blocked barrages).  Mayweather backed himself into the ropes a few times to to let Manny wear himself out only to use the same swing and slide move to get out the ropes.  Floyd dominated that fight.  Fighters struggle against Boxers

Yea i go back to thinking about the game vs the Chargers a few years back when the Ravens just didn't have an answer for the trees that SD had in Jackson Floyd and Gates. It was just like lob city, no routes, just run deep, look up and be ready to jump for the ball. Man that game was so frustrating. 

 

Now looking at Perriman, Brown, Waller and Williams I can't help but to get excited for the possibilities. If i'm any one of these guys i'm at the Castle bright and early everyday, headed straight to the basketball court and working on my post up game. lol. Flacco has proven time and time again to have the trust in his WR to just give them an opportunity to go up and make a play. If i'm those guys i'm doing everything possible to show Flacco he can trust me with the ball in the air, because if he can trust you he'll give you a shot. 

Oh wow.  In terms of the bolded, I said the exact same thing on another message board just this morning.  That week 2 game turned me into a fan wishing we had big receivers to just dominate corners the way theirs did Washington, Foxworth, and the safeties.  It looked so embarrassingly easy as Rivers cruised to the best game of his career, at that point anyway.  I still to do day don't get why they ran on 4th and 1.  A pass to any WR or Gates probably converts or scores since they were inside the 20 if I recall.

I think in terms of Marlon Brown, Steve Smith Sr summed it up the best 

 

“A guy came in named Steve Smith Sr.,” Smith responded with a laugh when asked about Brown’s drop in production.

 

I'm not sure why and where the opinion that Kamar Aiken or Camp outshined Brown comes from. I honestly don't understand it. Maybe its because Marlon didn't score a TD last season and both Aiken and Camp did. But the numbers suggest that Brown played a much larger role in terms of game plan and success of the offense down the stretch of the season. 

 

If we just look at numbers, Camp was only targeted 9 times all season. How anyone can say he outshined another player is beyond me. But it's not a knock to him because I definitely saw the potential of what he could be in those 9 targets.

 

Aiken played in a total of 13 games and was target a total of 33 times with 24rec 267yds 3Tds. Down the stretch of the season he was never targeted more then 2 times per game in any of the final 5 games. So during the last 5 games of the season his production looked like this 7 targets 4rec 50yds 1TD

 

Brown played in the same total of 13 games and was targeted 31 times with 24rec 255yds 0Tds. During the same 5 game stretch to close the season, Brown was targeted more then 5 times in 3 of those 5 games. His production looked like this 21 targets 13rec 141yds 0TDs

 

Now my point to this wasn't to showcase who was better or not, But for anyone saying Camp and Aiken outshined Brown I just can't see it, again unless you mean with TDs. Just looking at those numbers 80% of Aiken's production came before week 13 while 80% of Brown's proudction came after week 13. What does that all mean in terms of who is safe and who has to fight for a spot, i'd say both those guys better show up with the mindset of competing their butts off to make this team and that should be double true for Camp. 

Also add that Brown was injured early in the season and that's why he didn't play as much.  Honestly, I also don't get the talk of Marlon being at the bottom between those three.  Especially in a Marc Trestman office where a big man is loved the most.  Smith Sr. is guaranteed a spot amongst the top 2 easily, along with Perriman, but Brown will have to either regress heavily to be behind Aiken and Campanaro.  Either that or the final two need to seriously outshine him.  The fact that Trestman is the OC is also a reason I wouldn't count out a 6'6, 240 soft hands catcher with 4.4 speed. 

For people saying that Waller will basically be redshirted or not to expect much from him this year, the biggest thing we have to remember is who the coaching staff is. Yes in years past we've clearly drafted guys like this before, but our HC and or OCs at the time weren't the type to give guys like this a shot. 

 

But think about Harbs history and what we know about Tresman's love for taking deep shots with big WRs. Now none of these guys have developed into studs recently, but just think about what the opinion of Marlon Brown was this time 2 years ago. Who was Kamar Aiken? Both Jeremy Butler and Aaron Mellette were giving great shots to make the active roster once they proved talented enough during camp. No again none of these guys are household names outside of Baltimore or even in Baltimore in most cases, but the point is they were even a shot to show and prove. 

 

So looking at Waller, i'm not saying he's gonna come in and be a ROY guy or even and decent contributor to the offense this season, but if he shows promise in camp, i'm willing to bet Harbs and Tresman will be looking to work him into any type of offensive rotation they can. Even if it's only to take 1 or 2 play action shots down field per game. 

Not only Harbs and Trestman but also think about the WR coach, Engram.  Last season we saw 7th rounder, Campanaro look good when on the field, FA Aiken look good when on the field, Brown caught everything thrown his way when targeted also.  Name the last time we've seen low round picks or journeyman receivers come into Baltimore and look decent?

Engram is a huge difference maker right now and I think he can get something out of a 6'6, 240 WR with good hands and 4.4 speed.  Speaking of which, you don't think the Ravens front office and coaches saw what Pittsburgh did with a similar sized WR in Bryant last season?  I just can't see them trying to stash him unless he just sucks or truly gets hurt.  If he's on IR in 2015 then you might as well right him off because nobody ever comes back from rookie season IR stashing in Baltimore

Harbaugh's statement after the last game about Smitty having "a role" that may not be an every down role makes me wonder if he'll truly still be the number one.  My depth chart, pending injuries or a player just plain sucking far worse than expect, would look like this:

Perriman

Smitty

Aiken

Brown

Campanaro

Waller

Getting injured last season hurt Butler a lot.  I also think that if Aiken, Brown, or even Waller can completely impress the coaches this offseason that Smitty could even end up being used as mainly a slot receiver.  It's incredibly unlikely though that Waller wins that battle but I definitely look forward to a day when he and Perriman are the outside receivers.  Having two big guys outside that can both go deep would be great for Joe since defenses wouldn't be able to role coverage to one side.

It's close, and, well, Denver isn't all that far away. It could be worse. Like I said above, we'll figure something out. We just have to go to work. I hope our players aren't as soft as our fans are.

I'm not even worried about it that much anymore (since there's no changing it) but it's not really close.  Denver and Oakland are about 1,300 miles apart.  The distance from Baltimore to Denver is about 1,660 miles.  Clearly it's a little shorter but that's still a long distance.  

To compare, the distance from San Fran to Oakland is 12 miles.  "Please give us a 12 mile week to week commute on the west coast so we don't spend a stupid amount of time traveling".  "No, but this 1,300 mile week to week travel is almost as good".  

That said, hopefully the players can deal with it.  They simply don't have a choice.  Doesn't mean fans can't be upset about it though

The back to back games with the Bengals and Steelers, the back to back west coast trips twice, 5 of the first 7 on the road.  Wow.  Those portions of the schedule are ugly.  Even the 3 out of 4 home games to end the season aren't pushover games.

If/When the Ravens make the playoffs this year they will have earned it

Isn't it more to it that that.   I understand it would be difficult to predict, but assuming all we sign are cap casualties, then what is your prediction on Torrey McPhee and Daniels.  Is it possible get two 3rd's for Torry and McPhee and a 5th for Daniels?

 

I mean I understand that cap casualties don't hurt chances of getting comp picks and a big reason Ozzie focuses on them.  However an eye or an eye in fa terms would cancel it out, but not a lower end and higher end fa. 

It goes by contract and playing time.  Torrey is getting $8M a year so that's at least a 4th.  Not sure where it crosses into a 3rd.  I know $5M average goes to a 5th so you have to figure Torrey is no less than a 4th IF he plays 70% or so of the snaps

Good luck with that, it'll be a tough ask considering there were people a couple of years ago who thought Tyrod was better value.

Go on the Ravens facebook page and read the comment there.  You'll still find the "We need a new QB" posts and every now and then you'll see the rare, bushy tailed, "start Tyrod, he's the bestest!!!111!" people pop up

Yet another deal to put Joe's contract into perspective.

Exactly.  Romo, Dalton, Kaepernick and Ryan have all received big contracts since Joe.  Tannehill's could max out at over $100M also.  These 5 QBs combined don't reach Joe's playoff win column and none of them have played as consistently elite in the playoffs as Joe has since 2010 (24 TDs and 4 INTs).  At this point, it's safe to safe we got a good deal from Joe.

Well here he would be blocking more then being a receiver though.

 

we aren't a pass happy team and I doubt we will ever become 1.

Don't be too sure.  Trestman has a history of passing a good amount more than running.  

Besides, if Davis comes here he'll be a receiving option.  Daniels may not be resigned and Pitta has already dislocated his hip twice, once without contact, so he can't be relied on too heavily.  That just leaves Gilmore, who I like a lot

He's a big CB but I don't think he spectacular. He would be an improvement over anybody not named jimmy smith.

I agree and was thinking this.  At 6'2, 217 (I think), he has good size to him.  And it's not like he wouldn't immediately become our 2nd or 3rd best CB.  The main reason though is that he should come relatively cheap as the Chiefs got him for 5.3M a year average.  We could get him for that or a little less

How do people feel about CB Sean Smith?  The Chiefs appear to be about 10M over the projected cap right now and they still need to resign Houston.   Cutting Smith saves them $5.5M with dead money of only about $2.5M

We need CBs and we know Ozzie goes after released players quicker than unrestricted free agents.  Not sure where Smith ranks among CBs but I've always been a fan of him

Perhaps we are misunderstanding each other...

 

My entire post and process of posts was related to the fact that people said we will not sign Brandon Marshall because of comp picks. I said that there's probably never been a single time where Ozzie didn't sign a higher quality UFA because of the comp pick process. My premise is that there's nothing to gain from getting a comp pick instead of signing that player if the comp pick you are getting is incredibly unlikely to contribute in the manner that the quality UFA would. That is why, when players like Daryl Smith or Dumervil become available in FA, Ozzie has never been shy of signing these players, because the comp pick doesn't mean jack when compared to what those players can bring.

 

Like anything else, its an assessment of whether or not the UFA we would sign could be replaced by a comp pick or not. For a large amount of the cheaper UFAs, the answer would probably be no, hence why we tend to not target those.

 

I understand we've led the league in comp picks, and I'm sure that's by design. But keep in mind... that also correlates with the fact that the Ravens rarely have a bunch of excess cap space, thus, signing UFAs on an annual basis isn't easy anyway. I couldn't tell you the last time we had anything even resembling quality cap space available ot spend on players, and that's completely fine, because most of the good teams in this league spend close to the cap.

Ok, then this does clear up a few things.  For one, anybody that thinks we'll overlook Marshall to keep a comp pick is incredibly mistaken for two reasons.  1. as you said, the talent in a 3rd, 4th, or 5th round comp pick will likely not match that of Marshall.  2. If we get him it's by way of trade or he was cut so it wouldn't affect the comp picks anyway.

Also as GrimCoconut stated, neither Smith nor Dumervil actually affected the comp picks due to when Smith was signed and that Dumervil was released by Denver.

Correct, but you are essentially echoing what I already said... Ozzie WILL sign a UFA if that player is perceived as upper-echelon enough that we couldn't replace him with one of our comp picks. There are people saying that we wouldn't sign a Brandon Marshall because we want the comp pick... that's not logical.

 

I agree that we don't sign "cheap" FAs because of the comp pick process, mostly because the FO thinks they can using a comp pick and get the same level player anyway, so it doesn't benefit them to sign the UFA. Its why we sign guys like the Smith's and not some cheap, borderline NFL-talent corner, because we can't find a replacement for the Smith's in the fourth round of the draft most likely.

I'm not quite sure what your current stance is.  Yesterday you were saying you seriously doubt Ozzie has ever not signed a player due to comp picks, now you're saying they don't sign "cheap" free agents because of the comp pic process.  The Brandon Marshall concept doesn't apply because if we get him this offseason, it means he was cut or traded for and thus, not affect comp picks.

My original stance was that Ozzie does not go after UFAs often, regardless of whether they are expensive or cheap, because of how the affect the comp pick process.  You disagreed with that here

Do you see how these two bolded sentences contradict?  If you're now agreeing that Ozzie does avoid UFAs due to his love of comp picks then we are in agreement.  A franchise that has had the most comp picks since 94, while not being established until 96, says a lot

Yes actually, I do think its a coincidence. You answered your own question in your next paragraph, when you alluded to guys like Dumervil, both Smith's, etc.

 

The factors that you are NOT considering is 1. its not a coincidence that in recent years our activity with UFAs has been limited by the amount of actual salary cap space we have, which is a far greater consideration than whether or not we can get a comp pick for it and 2. whether or not the FA we would be signing could be replaced by a comp pick in the future.

 

Given that the names you described would be almost impossible to replace with a 4th round comp pick, it doesn't make sense for Ozzie to pass on them if we have the cap space and we want them just so he can get some late 4th round pick, who by your own examples, will turn into quality ROLE players IF they tap out on their value.

The problem here is that you're only thinking about the big names and higher priced free agents.  I only mentioned those names to show Ozzie isn't afraid to spend a little.  You're ignoring the fact that we don't even go after cheap UFAs.  Just looking at last season, we didn't we go after a proven former Baltimore player who was a free agent like Josh Wilson but go after Aaron Ross?  Wilson signed a 1 year deal for under a million.   The reason is, Wilson was a UFA and Ross was cut.  

This is just an example as I know Wilson was an UFA off the top of my head since I had a discussion on it last year.  But again, it's not only about the expensive guys.  Feel free to name the last 5 cheap UFAs we've signed.

Dumervil and the Smith's actually back up my point.  Ozzie isn't afraid to go after names and spend a little money......so long as they are released/cut by their teams.

1. I think his price tag would be small, given the injury risk. He's actually likely to get a short-term, "prove it" deal most likely, which is something the Ravens would probably be interested in.

 

2. I think the notion that Ozzie doesn't sign UFAs because of comp picks is a myth. Historically, comp picks don't amount to anything, and I seriously doubt Ozzie has ever once not signed a player solely because of a comp pick. If we don't sign a guy, its because his price is too high or we simply don't want him.

You think it's a coincidence?  Who were the last 5 UFAs signed by the Ravens that you recall?

In terms of the importance of comp picks, Gilmore, Taliaferro, and Juice are a few examples of what Ozzie can do with comp picks.  It's why he'd jump into a bidding war for someone like Dumervil, Smith Sr, etc but you almost never hear about him going after others.  For a front office that admittedly loves having as many picks as possible, I'd bet they factor in comp picks when they choose who to go after in free agency right along with price, age, etc.

Jordan Cameron wants to get out of the dumpster fire that is Cleveland. Interesting. 

A few issues with that.  The first is what his price tag will be.  Might be too much for Baltimore.  The second is that he's a serious concussion risk.  And 3rd, Ozzie isn't a fan of the unrestricted free agents as it hurts the comp picks in the future.

Cutting Ngata would leave too much dead cap. It's not really feasible. McPhee is gonna to be the next art jones, Kruger, etc. Really talented, but we simply can't afford his price range. 

Ngata is currently a 16M cap hit.  Cutting or trading him leaves Baltimore on the hook for 7.5M which is much better.  Even a contract extension likely doesn't drop him below that 7.5M mark unless he takes a real cheap deal for about 4 additional years.

Everyone else on the d-line should be under contract (I expect Canty to be cut also) and they looked good the last 4 games without the big guy.  Didn't miss a beat.  That 8.5M saved can go towards a few free agents