I see it more like this:
1) We lose all three and miss playoffs, 40% or less.
2) We win 1 of three games and miss playoffs (team would finish 8-8), 10% or less.
3) We win 2 out of three but miss playoffs,(9-7), 0%
4)We win 2 out of three and make playoffs, (9-7), 0%
5) We win all three games , we are in, (10-6), 0%