Sizzlebshu

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Posts posted by Sizzlebshu

  1. Posted · Report post

    54 minutes ago, ravensdan said:

    I'm with you to a point but the TD upside has proven out to be very volatile and unpredictable so it is hard to say you can count on those guys being those guys. 

    Yes and No for this. While I agree TD upside is volatile, there are some players who are just exceptions to this for whatever reason. Dez, Odell Beckham, Adrian Peterson, and Rob Gronkowski are just a few names of players who have such a solid and predictable TD floor. A-Rob may potentially be in that group although there isn't enough data to confirm this. 

    Dez getting volume is a myth btw. During the 2014 seasons (which is the closest statistical season we have to what we expect this coming season), Dez had, iirc, 145 targets (maybe less). In comparison, Brandon Marshall had 173 this year, Demaryius Thomas 176, Julio and Antionio Brown eclipsed and got close to 200 respectively, ODB had 159. Due to the nature of his offensive, Dez gets relatively low volume, but gets by on being remarkably efficient and, of course, consistently scoring way above league average in touchdowns (16 that season). 

     

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  2. Posted · Edited by Sizzlebshu · Report post

    To give you an example to clarify the question: 

     

    Brandon Marshall could conceivably finish with 110/1200/8 

     

    In order for Dez to match he would need 86/1200/12 (roughly his floor given his last 3 healthy seasons so this is doable). 

     

    Marshall will probably give you a higher floor every week since he will have an extra 2 pts in ppr league over Dez (seven receptions per week for Marshall vs 5 for Dez), however, Dez will probably win you more weeks given that he will provide you with an extra TD and an extremely good chance of hitting multiple TDs. 

    Now imagine your draft goes something like Dez (12 TDs minimum), Allen Robinson (10 TDs), Some other receiver (8 TDs), Jordan Reed 10 TDs. Given that 3 of those guys are proven elite TD scorers (Dez, Allen, Reed), they will likely provide you with multiple touchdowns for that given week and even in the rare weeks they do not provide you with a TD, drafting multiple receivers with this skill can help to balance that out. Given how teams that score more TDs generally do better than those that do not, you can see why this is a viable strategy especially during playoffs. 

    While you may forgo taking a guy that can have 8-10 catches during a game, if youre drafting at the back half of a draft, you likely aren't getting one of the elite options (brown, julio, beckham) and are hoping that guys like Keenan Allen and Brandon Marshall overachieve their ADP and return top 5 value. 

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  3. Posted · Edited by Sizzlebshu · Report post

    11 minutes ago, ravensdan said:

    I think you have to go by volume. TDs are not repeatable or predictable. Both Robinson and Dez will be target monsters though. I'm not 100% on the question your asking with the pairs here. In mfl10s right now their adp:

    wr6: Robinson 

    wr7:. Dez

    wr8:. Keenan (that surprised me he hadn't always gone that high in my leagues)

    wr17:  marshal

     

    seems more likely to me you'd be picking between Dez and Robinson and between Allen and Marshal  so my combo would be Dez/Marshal  

     

    Im not sure if you mean wr6 or adp 6 in the above

     

    i tend to use fantasyfootball calculator adp where dez/allen tend to be back of the first early second guys while marshall and keenan are second rounders. I feel this is a bit more accurate than mfl

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  4. Posted · Report post

    So while practicing the later positions in ppr mocks, i have found that i often find myself with the following options while running zero rb 

    allen robinson/dez bryant

    brandon marshall/keenan allen

    While marshall had top 5 upside and will probably return first round value, allen's range of outcomes is slightly wider given that his pace last yr was unsustainable. He still probably returns first round value, but its worth noting that 30 receptions came in two games. Given increased reception totals correlate with increased yarage totals and are more predictable than tds, these two seem to have a safer floor despite being taken later in drafts

    On the other side of things, touchdowns are a terrible stat to forcast. However some players such as Dez bryant and Rob Gronkowski are what are known as elite touchdown scorers. Given that fantasy football is a weekly game played over a season, drafting and hittingbon enough of these players can be amazingly potent

     

    Dez has averaged at least 88 receptions 1200 yds and 12 tds in his last 3 healthy seasons. Despite his production in 2014, peripherals like pass attempts suggest bryant will need to be remarkably efficient especially in the red zone given the low volume

     

    Arobs tds will likely regress as neither nor his offense were remarkably efficient. However arob was efficient in the red Zone on an absurd 18 targets within the 10 ( a number that should regress by about 8 targets if averages hold). However, arob may still a high td total and has shown himself to be a strong receiver. He may not score 14 tds, but 10-12 qith 1200 yards and 90 receptions may be doable.

    sp my question is which pair would you rather have and which stratefy would you rather adopt? Would you rather try to hit on increased rexeption torals realizing that matching the likes pf julio/brown will be pretty much impossible or would you rather take receivers who may not have elite reception upside but will compensate by scoring more tds and by taking enough of those players, you may also balance out and accumulate a higher number of total tds and create more week and league winning scenarios

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  8. Posted · Report post

    On June 25, 2016 at 3:42 PM, Sizzlebshu said:

    1. I don't make a board. I literally only pay attention to this probably when I am up or I notice some idiot make a comment in the 30 seconds i scroll through

    2. Idc what every other player has done. If irks you that much, piece it together and make a post. It doesnt bother me at all

    3. Cool replace me 

    4. Don't really care if ppl evaluate my team or use it to figure out where im going. 

     

    -7

  9. Posted · Edited by Sizzlebshu · Report post

    43 minutes ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

    Dwayne Allen is coming off a disappointing season, but I think it says a lot that the Colts chose him over Fleener this offseason. I'm expecting a much better season, from him, on par with his rookie year. 

    With the selection of Allen, my base offense is now complete. The Patriots offense has always been run best with 12 personnel and that is exactly what I have right now. 

    The OL is definitely the strength of this unit, but I like the weapons as well. The investment level isn't as high (rounds 9, 13, 16, 18 and 19) compared to the OL (2, 7, 10, 12, 17), but they will work very well for what I want to do. Comparing it to the actual Patriots offense, I think the only place I've downgraded is TE and that was always going to happen not being able to get Gronk.

    QB: Tom Brady
    RB: Jamaal Charles
    WR: Julian Edelman
    WR: Kamar Aiken
    TE: Martellus Bennett
    TE: Dwayne Allen

    LT: Joe Thomas
    LG: Joel Bitonio
    C: Matt Paradis
    RG: Brandon Linder
    RT: Bryan Bulaga

     

    @52520Andrew is up

    The Colts chose him over Fleener because he can block and Fleener can't. For receiving purposes, they'd rather roll with Hilton, Colt's WR3, Moncrief. 

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  10. Posted · Report post

    19 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

    Well it makes it a heck of a lot easier for people to evaluate your team in hindsight. Not many people willing to go through the draft order and piece your team together because you are too lazy to post a roster(if time is not the issue). 

    And literally every other player has done it. It takes like 5 minutes. If you are struggling with time to find those 5 minutes this game is probably not for you. I mean you have put more time in arguing about why you haven't posted a depth chart than you would have had you just posted one. It is pretty funny actually.

    And you do realize that we have found plenty of people at this point in the past. It really is not that hard to find a replacement.

    And once again you have the ability to pass your board off to a trustworthy member to save yourself and others time. But you can go on about how you aren't putting any effort into this game while spending plenty of effort arguing about just that. Waste more of your precious time doing so.

    1. I don't make a board. I literally only pay attention to this probably when I am up or I notice some idiot make a comment in the 30 seconds i scroll through

    2. Idc what every other player has done. If irks you that much, piece it together and make a post. It doesnt bother me at all

    3. Cool replace me 

    4. Don't really care if ppl evaluate my team or use it to figure out where im going. 

    -3

  11. Posted · Edited by Sizzlebshu · Report post

    2 hours ago, 52520Andrew said:

    I am just saying that you originally did not want to sign up and you keep making a point about that here. Why keep bringing that up and how hard this game is for you then? If this game is that much of a struggle for you to the point you can't even get a roster updated, then we can go another direction and you can focus on those more important things in your life. No point in you struggling through a game if you don't want to play.

    I was asked to play the game out because playing with a full deck is better and more realistic than playing with ppl quitting halfway through and/or not playing with a full deck. For the losers that quit, it ruins the game somewhat because it provides an inherent advantage to player picking around those spots. 

    I never brought up the game was hard for me. Im just sick of ppl crying over me not making a pick when I made it very clear that I signed up to be a body and nothing more. Seriously what did you expect? 

    To me quitting or not makes 0 difference. I make time to make picks and find that fun for myself.  I don't find posting a roster to be anything more than cosmetic. What difference does it make whether I do it now or at the end of the draft or never at all? 

    -2

  12. Posted · Edited by Sizzlebshu · Report post

    8 hours ago, 52520Andrew said:

    Gonna be completely straight with you.

    If you have too much on your plate to the point it is interfering with other things you want to do and wish to quit this game, feel free. I mean we have already had several people leave the game already and most of them don't even announce that they are quitting but just vanish for a few rounds and let us connect the dots. 

    You seem pretty busy and we wouldn't want this fun summer game to take over more important things in your life. I mean you don't even have a roster up at this point after weeks of playing and we have had replacements come in and get something up within a couple days. I know we asked you to join and you wanted to help out and I am sure your current team means a lot to you but sometimes in life when we get too busy, sacrifices need to be made. 

    To use myself as an example, I am not going to be able to participate in the Forum Mock or DAF next year due to probably the toughest and most critical semester of my college career and I can't go into that semester with too many distractions. I lucked out a bit this past year with a fairly easy semester but even then, I noticed that I started doing a lot better once this game was over with and I need to make sure I am in the best position to succeed for next spring. As fun as these games are, I just can't risk setting myself back in school for these games. Also gotta take a summer class due to them only offering a group of classes in the spring and summer so that will be fun.

    I can tell you from experience as well that when you have too much on your plate, it can get pretty stressful and being able to manage your workload is something I have found to be critical. We all have our limits and if you need to focus on other things, feel free.

    If you do wish to stay however, there are plenty of people that have been able to find a balance and stay on top of this game a bit better. I believe we have a couple different members who gave their cell phone numbers to another member so they can text them when they are up or close to being up and I am sure a few people would be willing to do that so you don't have to worry about checking on here as often. I know a lot of members are very good about taking boards as well in the event that you are about to be on the clock but won't be online. Can be very helpful if you are going out to enjoy your night without worrying about when you will be on the clock. And I have yet to see someone make the wrong pick or let someone else's board influence their next pick.

    Basically all most people are asking for is a bit more communication on your end and if you need help or are just too busy to continue playing this game, then just let us know and we will make things work one way or another. Certainly wouldn't be the first time we have gotten a replacement for a player.

    What point of I literally joined this to be a 32nd body was unclear? Seriously I have said this since the start of the game. Do I literally have to post the PM from Crush for you guys to get it?

    Edit: here it is: http://imgur.com/LDlzru8

    Unlike those ppl you have mentioned, I have made all my picks and kept my participation to reasonably and sufficiently active levels. I'm not one of those ppl that joins a game, then ruins it by quitting halfway through. Note that this is even tho, I didn't even originally want to sign up and I still have found time to get it done compared to the ppl that quit cause they got bored with it. 

    I'm given 12 hrs to make a pick. I made the pick in 12 hrs. Ppl shouldn't complain whether I make it in 1 min or 11 hrs and 59 mins. I make it when it is most convenient for me. I am not going out of my way any more than I already have to play this game. 

     

    -2

  13. Posted · Report post

    13 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

    Showes?

    You're awfully salty about a couple comments made in jest by a bunch of "losers" with "no lives" who "cry."

    Seems someone effected by such things would more closely resemble a "crying," "no life," "loser." 

    Your words not mine. 

     

     

    Oh and only reason anyone said anything is bc of your "threat" to purposely take the full 12 hrs. 

    And what a coincidence Mr. Popular-too-cool-for-school-my-Friday-nights-are-better-than-yours you happen to just check the board within an hour of your deadline. 

    Apparently its within 3. Guessing you were too cool to pay attention in math

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  21. Posted · Report post

    1 hour ago, -Truth- said:

    Same with Coleman. I'm not the biggest fan of doubling down, but I also wasn't fond of being forced to push T.J. Lang out of RG, where he's thrived thus far, without any flexibility. Whitehair was seen as either a potential guard or center coming into the process, so I'd be free to flip the two if necessary. At this point, I have him penciled in at center, where he'll be a relative unknown with upside who's sandwiched between two rock solid OGs. I can live with that.

     

    I thought this was a strange move to be completely honest. Slauson handled the center position very well and they're playing Whitehair mostly at LG. I feel like the trio of Whitehair, Slauson and Long would've been a fine one.

    Depends on what type of scheme you run. If its power blocking, i think white hair is going ot have some issues. If its zone, he will probably be fine. 

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  24. Posted · Report post

    On 6/18/2016 at 3:02 PM, Winchester said:

    T young is going to be a very good player. But covering Chris Moore when you do not know his game is a tall order!! This guy is a sharper route runner than anybody realizes. When he starts lighting it up ravens fans are going to be stunned the ravens drafted this dude. Yes this is a ravens wr

    Contact less, pad less practice against someone arguably half his size. Makes sense. 

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