BOLDnPurPnBlacK

If we're talking positionally I'd say:

Pass rush, OT/G, WR and CB in some order with pass rusher being the priority in one of the top 2 rounds.

Ill be ecstatic if we can grab a player from each of those positions in the first 3 rounds, and based on all the projections and chatter it's very feasible we could pulll that off while sticking very closely to a BPA model. 

1 hour ago, Edgar said:

I see it as more likely Barnett is on the board than Corey Davis.

It will surprise me to see Tim Williams available mid two.

Round six I like a lot.

I actually think Davis is the most likely to be there of all the guys who get a lot of love here. More likely than Barnett, Mike Williams or Foster. 

And I'll be more surprised if Tim Williams isn't on the board for our 2nd pick. While there's clearly a lot to like -- multiple failed drug tests, the arrest, under sized for the position, incredibly small sample size in that even in his senior year he was largely a role player and was surrounded by the most ridiculous front 7 in college football... I'm sure several NFL teams would trade out their current front 7 for Bama's  

There are just a ton of quality pass rushers at the top of the draft.... and plenty in all forms. There's raw but explosive guys that are cleaner off the field like Reddick, Takk, Taco, Bowser.... there's big time producers with much longer track records that played 3 downs like Barnett, Harris, and maybe Willis... and then you've got your guys with limited sample sizes and injury issues but have big time upside like TJ Watt and Carl Lawson. 

And each of those guys may have one or two of the knocks you could put on Williams, but are cleaner prospects in other regards. And all of them were able to produce without much around them. 

I like his upside just as much if not more than any of the others. But he's definitely got the heaviest baggage to overcome. Lots of questions to ask for that high of an investment...

Is a team going to spend a 1st on a guy that may only be able to play 20-30% of snaps? Can he pack on weight to his frame and even if he can does he maintain those explosive traits that make him such a juicy prospect? Will he be able to stop the weed or is he going to be constantly suspended? Does he have the right group around him off the field? Can he thrive without having a huge talent advantage surrounding him? Would his production stay on par with the top guys if he wasn't constantly rested and was asked to carry a full snap load? Do we even know what his motor is like, especially in the 4th qtr when games are won and lost in the NFL, if we ask him to play anything more than 3rd downs??

The upside is obvious. It smacks you in the face. But, 1st round is a high price with all of those legitimate questions to ask. And most teams don't have the pipeline to Bama that Ozzie does to get those answered. So I imagine they'll be even less comfortable than we would. 

10 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

I think Cunningham is the better player and the better fit. The dolphins have a real good front but they need a sideline to sideline LB, and I like his ability to man up to a guy like gronk twice a year and be a headache against the short and intermediate game of the pats, who are clearly their toughest obstacle.

Yea I like Davis better. If not for injury concerns I think he'd be more regularly talked about in the conversation with Foster as the top ILB in the draft. 

Apparently there's quite a few teams that have Davis above Foster. 

And I think his strength is his sideline to sideline range and coverage ability. 

Personal opinion but I think Davis is the much better prospect. I don't think Cunningham comes off the board until day 2. 

But that's preference... not an issue with the Mock. Bc I do think it's near 100% certainty that the Dolphins pick a pass rusher or athletic LB. 

Griffin has really underrated athleticism. His testing numbers really pop across the board. It surprised me bc I didn't really see that high end speed and explosion on tape... 

as you said though he doesn't show many weaknesses. Just solid in pretty much all aspects. And a great kid with a great story. I'd be happy with him becoming a Raven for sure. 

Doesn't get a lot of love but I personally like him just as much as some of the guys that are frequently projected late 2nd-3rd round. 

And his brother could be a good prospect for next year. Looks like a pretty good pass rusher leading the team in sacks. 

2 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I think Marlon Humphrey is a real darkhorse for the Ravens.

I wouldn't be surprised actually. 

But from what I'm hearing lately it would be a big surprise if he's even there. 

I don't think there's any way he gets past Philly at 14 if he even makes it that far. Apparently there's a decent number of teams that have him as the #1 CB. And quite a few that have him in the conversation for their pick in the top 12-14. 

Overall nice Mock. Like it. 

One thing though... I cannot see the Dolphins taking Cunningham over Jarrad Davis. 

10 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Then nobody should ever do mock drafts I guess

You made sense of that?

3 hours ago, jboy19 said:

It's definitely realistic. I'd be a little upset if the Ravens took Dawkins over Moton (if Moton was still available), but otherwise I'd be happy. 

I dont get the love for Moton. Not a huge fan... and i like Dawkins WAY better.

2 minutes ago, Drew P said:

Again, you go off on some tangent and put words down I never did.

Just because someone gets paid doesn't make them the "best".

All teams hit on UDFA's some better than others. One reason the Ravens jump out are most likely you are hyper focused on the Ravens.

Point is if Oz is so great and they have a elite QB they should be able to beat the Bungles and at least sniff the playoffs.

What is your definition of "sniffing" the playoffs? Bc im pretty confused.

And citing one matchup with a division rival is a dumb argument. If the Steelers are so good and make the playoffs all the time, how come theyre, what, 5-1 against us in the last 6 match ups and that 1 win took a last second TD drive to barely beat us? 

Case closed. Were better than the Steelers. And the Steelers are better than the Bengals. And the Bengals are better than us. Which means..... dumb argument.

The NFL is cyclical. Its literally designed to promote parity. If youre really, really good you can beat the system for a little while.... but it eventually catches up with everyone. We had an almost unrivaled stretch of success in modern history. That means we had the deck stacked against us (in terms of replenishing talent) more than anyone else over a long stretch as well.

We're feeling the effects of that now. But, with a cpl down years and nice draft position; Oz will prove hes still got it and restack the deck for another run.

You dont have to believe that.... but if you dont understand how the NFL works and just how difficult the draft is, and how good Ozzie has been at defying those odds - i dont know what to tell ya.

Most NFL GM's would tell you, if you get 2 starters from a draft its a huge success. Anything more and youre killing it. Around here -- we look at a draft where we only get Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner as a complete bust of a draft. 

Unrealistic expectations, and no sense of what its actually like with other teams. Look at the Bungles now. After a run of drafting top 10 for 10 straight years they had a really talented roster on cheap contracts... now after a cpl years of success they're struggling as everyone leaves for bigger contracts. Look at the Seahawks... rose to prominence on the back of really solid drafting. Same thing, contended for a couple years with star players on cheap deals. Now that theyve paid the main guys, talent is leaving left and right and theyre falling back in a big way.

Be thankful that our down years, we're still in position to win the division with 1 or 2 games to go.... and we're only ever down for 2-3 years max.

1 minute ago, Edgar said:

You won't get Foster, Watt, McDowell (fill in your favorite early 2 late 1 prospect) in the third round.

Unless you uncover a gem that no one anticipated, your not going to get as impactful a player in the third round.

 

 

1st, theres no guarantee that any of them are impact players.

It's doubtful that any of them get close enough where all we would have to give up is one pick to move into striking distance, so you're liking giving up both 3rds or 3rd and a 4th.

And for example's sake.... id much rather wait at 2 for someone like Tim Williams/Carl Lawson, and have a shot at Elflein/Witherspon or Sidney Jones.... than to throw all my marbles in on just 1 TJ Watt or Malik McDowell.

Foster wont get close. I like Ryan Anderson (when considering injuries, consistency) almost as much if not more than TJ Watt and hes almost guaranteed to be there at 2 if not our 3rd rd picks. And McDowell probably wont make it anywhere close; but i think we like Brantley and Wormley almost as much and they have a good shot to be there if we stay put. Hes certainly not a guarantee as a prospect by any means.

But all this is meaningless talk. You name a couple guys but without the context of who we took in the 1st and who is still on the board its a pointless conversation. Am I moving up for Watt if i took Barnett in the 1st? No. Am I moving up for Watt if Tim Williams, Carl Lawson and Jordan Willis are still on the board and im all but guaranteed to get 1 of them? No.

Am I moving up for McDowell if Feeney, Dawkins, Bolles, Ram, Cam, Elflein, Juju, Zay Jones, Kpassagnon, Sidney Jones, Quincy Wilson, Tre White, Adoree Jackson, Kevin King, Tim Williams, Carl Lawson, etc... are still on the board? No... bc id prefer several of them to McDowell, and if i have a chance to land 2 or maybe even 3 of those players as opposed to just 1 McDowell, im hanging tight - maybe even trading back to try and get 4.

Again its all about the board. If we're nearing pick 38-42 and the guy who's 20th on my board is still there and the next highest ranked prospect is the 35-40th... i might consider it. Unless the difference in my grade between my 20th ranked player and my 50th is very small.

There are so many variables to this type of question that there isnt an answer right now.

46 minutes ago, Edgar said:

An exceptional talent trumps (to me), a third round selection that fills a positional need. Particularly if the player in the third round is a developmental special teams player year one.

 

I agree it's more likely we trade down in round two.

But thats my point... its looking like the fall off in talent from round 2 to early 3 isnt very significant for the most part.

And id rather come away with 3 very highly rated players than 2.

34 minutes ago, Edgar said:

If that's the case, then they have a mandate to draft even more lineman.

2016

Ryan Kelly, C

Leraven Clark, T

Joe Haeg, T/G

Austin Blythe, C

Hassan Ridgeway, DT

Yea unless they fall in love with one of the OL, i think theyre going RB or Def with the 1st pick. Pass rush or CB if Def.

I could also see them taking Foster.

25 minutes ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

Foster is borderline top 5 to 10 prospect. If he is there at 16 and Ozzie gets the thumbs up from Savannah and Co., then no doubt he will be a Raven. 

Only players I have ranked higher than him are Garrett, Hooker, Adams, Barnett, Allen and Fournette. 

So if Barnett is there too...  you take Barnett?

12 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

I'm not sure I can see all those guys going before our 2nd pick given that the safeties will also be picked - peppers, baker, melifonwu will likely go before 47 - it would have to mean that from the point that the top 3 cbs are gone that a db is taken every other pick which would leave ridiculous talent to drop to us at other positions - as much as I love Witherspoon, there's no way he's a top 45 pick even for me

i agree that there will likely be a run after the top 3 are gone starting somewhere in the 20s and going into the start of the 2nd - but I also think the linebackers and offensive lineman are going there as well as a load of the edge rushers and the wrs come into play near the top of the 2nd too --> essentially my point is there can't be a run on all of those positions

Well i said any number of them... not necessarily all of them.

And if the top 3 were gone by 18; and the next 10 went off the board in the top 50 that would only be once every 3.8 picks; not every other. Still pretty unlikely that all 10 would, but not as crazy as taking one every other pick.

12 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

I feel like it just makes too much sense: Roseman lives for making exciting daring moves and mccaffrey would certainly count, Peterson comes from the Andy Reid tree and given that Ryan Matthews is old (is he even still there in Philly?) and Darren sproles cannot be the number 1 running back on a roster at this point they need someone to come in

what has been the beat writers' reasoning for mccaffrey not to be the pick?

Joe Douglas being part of the reason.

Their dire need for multiple CB's (theyre in line to be starting Jalen Mills, a 7th rd pick from last year) and that there is likely to be a CB there that very well could be BPA or darn close to it.

The fact that they have a very good 3rd down RB and returner (though hes getting older) and have more of a need for someone who can tote the rock 15-20 times a game and run between the tackles, and they dont feel like McCaffery is that.... even though Reid has never really shown a need for a player like that, and there actually are many who think that McCaffery can do that.

Also the fact that hes been linked to several teams in the Top 10 and that theres a decent chance he wont even be on the board.

Most think they wont be able to pass up Conley or Humphrey if available... or if a Barnett, Mike Williams or Reuben Foster falls -- they cant see them, with Joe Douglas in the room and in control of the board, passing up a superior prospect.

I was watching late round WR tape last night... and didnt realize we had met with Noel Thomas from UConn.

Kid makes some ridiculous catches. Not consistent, but man if he could put it together -- he literally makes some impossible catches look like child's play, but then will drop wide open easy catches. Maddening... and idk if he'll be drafted but would love to bring him in as an UDFA.

15 hours ago, omar586 said:

34: R2P2

EDGE CHARLES HARRIS

MISSOURI

47: R2P15

 

CB KEVIN KING

WASHINGTON

74: R3P10

WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER

USC

78: R3P14

 

S DESMOND KING

IOWA

80: R3P16

OT RODERICK JOHNSON

FLORIDA STATE

104: R3P40

EDGE RYAN ANDERSON

ALABAMA

109: R4P2

 

C PAT ELFLEIN

OHIO STATE

121: R4P14

 

WR ISAIAH FORD

VIRGINIA TECH

137: R4P30

EDGE DEMARCUS WALKER

FLORIDA STATE

143: R4P36

 

CB CORN ELDER

MIAMI

144: R4P37

 

G ZACH BANNER

USC

146: R5P2

 

QB JEROD EVANS

VIRGINIA TECH

159: R5P15

DL STEVIE TU'IKOLOVATU

USC

198: R6P14

 

C JON TOTH

KENTUCKY

219: R7P1

 

LB BEN BOULWARE

CLEMSON

Dude, there is a specific thread for FanSpeak mock drafts.... i feel like youve literally posted one in every single thread.

Post them there. This is someone else's mock.

I dont know that id trade up in the 2nd. I definitely wouldnt if it costs us one of our 3rds. Maybe a 4th.... maybe.

This draft is just too loaded with positions of need in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I see trading back in the 2nd as a much more likely scenario to try and pick up another 3rd.

And naming specific targets to trade up for depends entirely on who we go with in the 1st. For example, if Barnetts gone and we grab Williams/Davis.... and the pass rushers start flying off the board end of 1st/early 2nd... and it gets to the point where a Tim Williams, Carl Lawson, TJ Watt or Jordan Willis is the only top tier edge rusher left on the board -- then id probably look at trading up because im placing a very heavy importance on coming away from the draft with someone who has the potential to be a top notch edge rusher.

But, if theres several guys available still im not doing it.

If somehow a guy like Cam Robinson is still sitting there at pick 40; i might think about it.

Other than that... i fully expect there to be 1 or 2 of the WR's id be happy with still available 2nd/3rd round (Juju, Godwin, Kupp, Zay Jones); a few CBs (Sidney Jones, Q Wilson, Moreau, Witherspoon, Tabor); and some OL (Feeney, Dawkins, Elflein, Dorian Johnson).

While trading up could mean we get a slightly better prospect at one of those positions, it hurts our chances of walking away with a very good prospect at all those positions.

5 hours ago, LosT_in_TranSlatioN said:

Sorry for the late response. But no... Just no.

 

1. Zachary Orr was far and away the most overrated defensive player on the team last year. I know that everyone here loved him, but as @-Truth- and @BmoreBird22 pointed out, Orr got a ton of those tackles because Mosely ate the blockers and allowed Orr to run free. Orr was a decent ILB, but my god was maybe the most undeserving all pro I've ever seen. If there's on thing that pisses me off more than the Jernigan trade, it's the fans who say that CJ Mosely is "just another guy", and Orr had a better season. Nope. When Orr was thrusted into the #1 ILB spot because of CJ's injury, he struggled mightily. There's no surprise why. CJ made the defense work. He's our biggest asset going forward and there's no question about it. He's gonna be a Raven for life. 

 

2. There is no way in hell we would have gotten anything less than a fourth rounder from Jernigan comp pick wise. Even with his inconsistencies, a player with his talent would easily command $6.5 million on the open market. Which btw, given that our cap situation is significantly better next season, we could have easily afforded to keep him. That obviously wasn't in our plans(which is foolish and I'll explain why in the next point), but the return absolutely SUCKED. If we had traded him outright for that Eagles third rounder and not given up our own pick, you would hear 0 complaints from me and I'm a huge Jernigan fan. In my eyes, that'd be a solid trade.

 

3. Sorry. But we picked the wrong guy. Timmy Jernigan was an inconsistent pass rusher, but was a consistently excellent run defender who fit the defense well and was young. I'd rather have a guy who is very inconsistent as a pass rusher like Jernigan, but when he's hot he turns it on, then a guy who only plays 80% of the snaps. Given that the nfl has evolved into more of a passing league, Jernigan's ability to play three downs makes him, at least in my eyes, a more valuable commodity. I know he flat out dissapeared at times, but it's not like he was getting any help either. If we had more of a pass rush, I think we would have seen more pressures and sacks from the man. He's not an all pro, he's not even a pro bowler. But finding a defensive lineman who can rush the passer at a decent level is harder than most people think. And we just traded away our proven/best guy. For pennies on the dollar. 

 

4. Finally, the returns are idiotic. Timmy Jernigan playing next to two very good pass rusher is probably gonna have a season where he gets 6-8, possibly 10 sacks. The Eagles would probably be inclined to sign him again afterwards, for a sizeable contract but one that'd be well deserved, and they suddenly have one of the better defensive tackle tandems in the league, and they basically gave up nothing to get him. I don't give a damn if he is inconsistent, trading up 20 spots and giving away your best pass rusher, even if he is a locker room problem, is a HORRIBLE return. It literally makes no sense from a logical standpoint. The Eagles paid pennies for a dude who as a total package is an above average player, and they move down and still get to keep a pick in the round. I can personally guarentee you that Timmy, especially as a proven commodity thus far, is going to be better than at least 90% of the players drafted in the third round this year. 

 

I could go on and on about why this trade was totally and utterly idiotic, but honestly, it's post 4/20 in the state of Colorado. I'm going to bed lol

on point #1.... 

Yes, anyone who says Orr was better than Mosley is delusional. But to do the opposite, and completely ignore the season Orr had is ridiculous too. Orr and Mosley are different players - just bc Orr struggled in Mosley's role doesnt take away from how he played along side Mosley. Yea, Mosley opened Orr up to get the glory, but he still was a play maker, sure tackler, and was good in coverage. 

You can say Mosley made Orr, but Orr also made life on Mosley easier - knowing that he didnt have to try and do too much... he had a guy there he could count on to make the plays next to him. Both could stay within the defense and perform their role.

On point #2....

Whether you put any merit in the draft pick value trade charts or not; the value of swapping our 3rds and moving up 25 spots is greater than the Eagles 4th round pick outright.... and way more valuable than a comp 4th. When you consider the depth/quality of this draft it's even more so.

So to say youd have been happy if we had just gotten the Eagles 4th but this pick swap was terrible, is just ignorance to the value of picks. Youre basically saying you would have been happy had we gotten less in return, but since we got more its a bad trade.

Point #3 - 

Ever consider that part of the reason Jernigan has been able to be a good run defender is because he's had Williams next to him clogging everything up and occupying multiple blockers? Much easier job when youre always 1on1 or completely clean and able to make tackles. Its essentially your Orr argument. You knock Orr for benefiting from Mosley doing the dirty work and keeping him clean, but fail to recognize that was the case with Jernigan.

Jernigan was already losing snaps to a guy like Pierce... who's much much cheaper, a far better fit for the defense we play, has more years under team control, was a better run defender in a limited sample, and a more productive pass rusher on a per snap basis. Granted it was a somewhat limited sample, but the coaching staff knows these guys better than we do. If they feel like theyre going to get close to or a better return by playing Pierce, AND get draft compensation heading into one of the better drafts in recent memory -- then why wouldnt you?

It was clear by the end of last season that Jernigan's role was diminishing greatly, becoming basically a rotational/role player. So if youre not going to keep him beyond this year, and youre not a hands down SB contender where Jernigan could be the difference between winning a SB or not; you move him and get the best return.

Point 4.

Again. Youre saying the Eagles paid pennies bc they didnt have to give up a pick... just moved down in the 3rd. They probably offered their 4th and we pushed for the pick swap.... bc it has more value. Lets say on draft night we wanted to move up to the Eagles pick (74) and we offered our comp 3rd (99) and our 4th round pick; guarantee its not enough to get it done.

That 74th pick alone has more value than a comp 3rd and the Eagles 4th. And much more value than keeping our comp 3rd and getting a comp 4th next year.

We got a better deal than getting just their 4th. Especially when you look at the quality of player likely to be available early 3rd, and that wont be around late 3rd.

Jernigan was likely to be an issue this year had we kept him. He was already complaining about his role diminishing, and even had we kept him i guarantee the plan was to give Pierce more snaps.

And I'd put money on the fact that we plan to use BWill and Pierce together at NT and DT and Pierce has a season as good as any we've gotten from Jernigan. Both against the run and as a pass rusher.

Because even if he doesnt get home or put up as many sacks as Jernigan did.... he will demand double teams. You almost have to double BWill and Pierce which is going to leave our edge rusher 1on1 with a T and TE. And if they dont, and they try to go 1on1 with the interior guys; we're going to win those battles more often than not and put pressure right in the laps of QBs.

15 hours ago, RavensFanMania said:

Although I'll look at pff on occasion, it isn't the be all end all as you know.  I'm not a fan of their grades for College players at all.

Yea some of their grades on college players are eye popping. 

I dont think they account at all for level of competition, and they seem to suffer from recency bias quite a bit.... in terms of how they rank draft prospects. They'll have guys who put up one year of outstanding play over guys that have done it consistently over 3 years. 

But there definitely is some good stuff to be taken from their evaluations. Just shouldnt be used in a vacuum or as the be all end all... which i think some do.

I really like the schedule and think it falls favorably. 

Alternating home and away games for a long stretch; well placed bye week; no real gauntlet of very difficult match ups....

It's set up where any tough losses we may have, there's a good opportunity to right the ship immediately. No obvious spots to go on a tough losing streak... so if we can win the games we should, and pull out a couple close ones - theres a real possibility to string together some decent win streaks.

Initial reaction is that the over/under is 9.5 wins.

Obviously that could change with the draft and later FA yet to come... but 9.5 looks about right to me. 

Just got done watching Kenny Golladay and he's pretty impressive. 

Makes circus catches look easy. 

Has height and length and looks to have decent speed. Def needs to become a better route runner and add some bulk to his frame... but I'd love this kid in the late rounds or as an UDFA. 

9 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

This isn't true though.  Plenty of people with normal drinking habits can turn in a diluted sample.

That depends on the threshold for a diluted result.

Considering the NFL has a policy where diluted = failed no matter what, and not "retest" ive got to imagine the creatinine levels and specific gravity measurements are toward the extremes of the "diluted" scale.... and it really isnt possible for someone with normal drinkings habits to reach those levels.

Normally the reason for a clean person to come up diluted is that they were nervous about not being able to pee on command and end up drinking a lot of water before the test... 

It'd only be normal for the person to come up diluted based on their "normal drinking habits" if they're very active and drink 3L of fluid or more per day.... spread out evenly through the day.... and considering this is the NFL we're talking about, not Quest Diagnostics testing regular joes -- we're talking finely tuned athletes who come from big programs with all sorts of nutrition and hydration experts on staff -- im sure theyve developed their test criteria to accommodate for individuals who hydrate that regularly.

4 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

You never really know with a diluted sample, but it's another red flag that teams have to consider.  That puts him in the program so if he is a user, he's already got a strike against him before he even has a job.  Sometimes you can get a diluted sample with regular hydration and it truly is a mistake that gets rectified in the next test.  Sometimes though, it's used to hide usage.  I used to work in HR and I'd wager to guess the percentage of people who failed the 2nd test after providing a diluted sample was about 70%.

Agreed.

The series of events or coincidences that would need to take place to get a diluted sample naturally are honestly hard to do... and as you said, if it is an honest mistake will be proven so 99.9% of the time with a 2nd test.

You literally have to be downing water at a really high rate leading right up to the minute you take the test to naturally come up with a diluted sample.

Sidenote -- didnt jernigan have a diluted test at the combine? Or am i thinking of someone else?

7 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

I've had a diluted urinalysis with just regular hydration and no tampering

It happens... im not saying it definitely means foul play.

But it usually means either water was poured into the sample after the fact, the person taking the test drank a ton of water within 2 hours of the test, or the person has been taking a diuretic leading up to the test along with drinking a ton of water to clean their system and shed water weight.

Yea, you could definitely just drink a lot of water by routine and have your urine come out that diluted.

But in the NFL diluted is failing and puts you in the protocol. No way these players advisors are letting them do anything to risk coming up with a diluted sample if the player is clean. They prob make sure they dont drink any water 4-6 hours prior to the test to make sure of it.

Im guessing though that some players decide that getting a failing test back that was diluted at least gives them plausible deniability and will hurt their draft stock less than an out right failure.... so they weigh the decision and pull for a diluted sample.

Thatd be my guess here. But it certainly isnt a guarantee.