Tru11

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Posts posted by Tru11

  2. Posted · Edited by Tru11 · Report post

    1 hour ago, rmcjacket23 said:

    Well obviously using stats would be better than using subjective measures like saying somebody was "double teamed a lot" (which you should be able to quantify by the way), or the impact of changes in personnel or gameplan schemes. That's the problem with subjective measurements... they can't actually ever be proven as factual or non-factual. They are theories based on something you perceived to have happened, and there's no ability to accurately gauge the impact of it. You can guess at it, but that's about all you can do with a subjective measurement.

    My point about statistics isn't to say that you shouldn't use them. My point is to make sure you use the RIGHT one's. One's that take into account more context. One's that don't just involve looking at how many TDs somebody caught the year before and saying "gee he could do that again".

    The stats I referenced you won't find in a box score. You'll find pieces of the pie in a box score, but not anything close to the whole pie.

    stats are stats.

    if stats are all you are going by i wont agree with you.

    nothing more and nothing less.

    you can agree with me if you think you need more then stats alone.

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  3. Posted · Report post

    2 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

    So basically there's about a dozen other variables outside of looking at what somebody did in a prior year on a different team that would determine how many TDs, receptions, yards, etc. any individual player will get in a single season.

    How is this different from what I said all along?

    You could have summed up this entire post with one simple phrase... "I agree with you". You're just regurgitating at this point.

    Im not agreeing with you.

    Im awnsering your question as to why there is a difference in stats between 2013 and 2014 for torrey.

    You wanted to know and i told you.
    PI and state of the offense among other things.

    I certainly dont agree with going off just stats to proof a point what you clearly did as seen below........

    19 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

    1. Well, if he had 49 twice, and he never had a year lower than that with the Ravens, then by definition, that would be a Ravens career low.

    He could do the same reception total 10 times if he wanted to and it would still be a Ravens career low.

    2. You do realize that you just made my point for me? He had 46 less targets in 2014 compared to 2013, yet he catches 7 more TDs?

    This is the explanation I'm waiting on people to come up with. You throw the ball to him a ton less, and he scores more TDs, yet people think TDs are somehow a viable measurement metric?

    And by the way, even if you add back all the PI yardage and give him a reception for every PI he drew (which isn't realistic of course), he would still have a better Yards/catch in 2013, and he would still have more yardage in 2013, though on much higher target volume.

    Heck, I'll even make it simple for you guys:

    2011: 14 targets per TD
    2012: 14 targets per TD
    2013: 35 targets per TD
    2014: 8 targets per TD

    2011: 7 receptions per TD
    2012: 6 receptions per TD
    2013: 16 receptions per TD
    2014: 4 receptions per TD

    I would love for somebody to explain to me the sustainability of somebody who consistently catches a TD every 8 times they have a ball thrown in their vicinity, or somebody who catches a TD on 25% of their receptions consistently.

    Again, you guys have got to try harder.

    I can play this game with just about any receiver in the league who has played long enough in terms of how bad a measurement TD receptions are.

     

     

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  4. Posted · Edited by Tru11 · Report post

    5 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

    As a completely blown coverage, it should look like utter crap.  

    Whatever you think of the play, you must see someone should have been following Hogan from the OLS to the ORS.  Elam made the best of an awful situation by closing halfway, but he was not playing SCB.  If you see plays where the Ravens have 10 on the field (or 9, like once in 2016--the only time in my 18-year database), you see players make on-the-fly adjustments like Elam did on that play.

    I respect that you're taking some time trying to review the play, but it doesn't seem like we're going to convince each other.  Let's see what some other folks have to say.

    Does anyone know how to post the top view from Game Pass to You Tube?  Will it last if posted under a certain time threshold? 

    if it where man coverage i would agree with you.
    then you should see someone follow and odds are it should have been wright as that was his match up.

    however it was zone coverage and cover 3 at that.

    wright had to drop into the deep left zone while webb would drop into the left as they actually did after the snap.
    young was responsible for the deep right and dropped into that area.

    elam was supposed to cover the right flat and it was he left hogan run pas him.

    orr and mosley had the middle of field which is where they where albeit both of them bit on brady fake as well as they both took a step towards the LOS rather then dropping deep enough.

    that leaves weddle who was responsible for the deep middle where he also lined up as he practically standing over the C but 12 yards deep as the defender furthest back.
    however he to fell for the fake and he could not recover.

    if either webb or wright followed hogan to the right then the area they had to cover would be wide open lol.
    then everyone would had to make actual adjustments on the fly and the areas they where responsible for would had to change.

    let me point out though that there is no shame and falling for a fake by tom brady.
    dude is arguably the best QB in NFL history.
    he is that good.
    Weddle got fooled this 1 time and it was a big play.
    He still played one hell of a game but he was not mistake free and perfect though.
    he was the deep safety in the middle of the field standing the furthest from the LOS for easy and he made an error.
    no shame as it came happen to the best of them.....
     



    Cover2.png

     

     

    this is a nickle cover 2 look.

    notice how both Corners dont drop deep.
    opposite of what wright and young did.
    they lined up further then 5 yards away from the receiver and dropped deep.
    a player in montion should not at no point change their assigment.
    it also at no point have elam come up from his safety and its actually a huge issue if weddle let elam free lance.

     

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  5. Posted · Report post

    2 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

    Weddle was the deep safety on the offensive left side, Elam was the deep safety on the ORS.  Simple cover 2 with CBs screwing it up underneath.

     

    I answered your question, now have you reviewed the top view?

    that has to be the worst cover 2 excecution in the history of the NFL.
    i reviewed it and it does not look like cover 2 to me.

    weddle is basicially lined up over center and never really leaves the middle of the field to drop deep left
    neither outside CB is even remotely close to the LOS or in press coverage.
    both are actually standing and dropping deep.
    neither of the lbers drop deep enough to protect the deep middle.
    neither of the lbers run to the left side to drop deep or take the flat.
    there is absolutely no way a safety drops from his safety spot to line up over a slot receiver in cover 2.

    if that was cover 2 then everyone including weddle was wrong in their excecution.

    i find cover 3 and weddle falling for a fake from tom brady more plausible tbh.

    if that was supposed to be cover 2 then frazier has to be the worst secondary coach ever by...
     

     

     

     

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  6. Posted · Edited by Tru11 · Report post

    1 hour ago, Filmstudy said:

    2 problems with this explanation:

    There were 2 receivers on Wright's side (the OLS) as the signals were being called (Hogan motioned from left to right).

    The play you diagram is for a heavy nickel set (3 safeties).  Webb was playing SCB vs NE at this point in the game.  He simply brain farted and forgot to move with the Receiver motioning to the slot right.

    But I'll tell you what.  Find me another instance during the Pees era that meets the criteria:

    • 3 WRs unbunched
    • Nickel set with 3 CBs
    • 2 of the 3 corners are stacked on 1 receiver

    It simply doesn't happen unless there is a [profanity deleted]up.

    You showed the broadcast video on Youtube.  Do you have access to Game Pass?  Coming from a big Webb fan (look at the tweet above) it's painfully obvious what happened.

    it was zone coverage not man coverage.

    even if webb did motion with hogan , weddle was still the deep safety standing the furthest from the line of scrimmage.

    he would still have to cover the middle of the field.
    the same area where hogan caught the pass and towards the endzone.

    also wright was not stacked on edelman.
    he was a good 9 yards deep which makes sense since he was supposed to cover the deep left anyways.

    again though in zone coverage if you want to keep the assignments as simple as possible , the last thing you want to do is travel with receivers in motion.
    it would then require very good communication to reorder everyone assignments and with young , elam , wright and to a degree orr on the field that does not seem a very smart thing to do.
    would be even harder since weddle would have to make the calls but he was 12 yards deep.

    also webb in press on edelman should tell you his assignment was to do just that and then drop into his zone , rather then travel and give edelman a free release.

    Before we continue im actually curious in what you think weddle was supposed to do standing 12 yards deep in the middle of the field.
    Also im curious as to why he did not call for adjustments based on hogan going in motion.
    how does webb motioning with hogan change weddle responsibility to cover the deep middle?

     

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  7. Posted · Edited by Tru11 · Report post

    33 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

    In all the time I have watched film, I literally cannot recall a single instance where 2 corners (in a standard or nickel set) were stacked versus an unbunched 3-WR set.  And if it were ever to be done, you can be sure Dean Pees wouldn't be the guy to revolutionize.

     

    it was zone coverage.

    webb and elam as the inside corners/safeties where responsible for the flats.
    young and wright where responsible for the deep part on their side of the field.
    weddle was responsible for the deep middle.
    orr and mosley where responsible for the middle of the field.

    with no outside receiver on wright side it makes perfect sense to stack behind webb.
    it would be foolish to line up all the way outside to cover nobody.

    had either edelman or anyone else motioned to the outside you would have seen wright move that way as well.

    heck if hogan moved that way , elam would have moved closer to the inside but he would not have followed nor would it have changed any of the alignment other then wright lining up across of him like young did on his side.

    Cover3_medium.png

    This is basicially the principle of the call.
    only the pats had no outside receiver on wright side of the field which is why he moved to a spot behind webb which gave an unusual look.

    the SS is elam, the S is Webb.
    Hogan and edelman are the inside receivers.

    Key to recognizing the play call is watching where young and wright are dropping back to after the snap and what webb does after releasing edelman.

    you will specifically see young dropping back deep into his zone where no receiver is rather then following his receiver go over the middle.

    apologies for any spelling errors cause its late lol
     

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  8. Posted · Report post

    2 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

    So the year where he already had 3 times as many in the previous year with like 45 less targets, he could have had more?

    O look, more proof of my point.

    not really though.

    your point does not consider the state of the offense.

    2013 was a down year for the entire offense with torrey being the only healthy capable receiver.
    pretty much explains the spike in volume of targets.
    he was leading the NFL for the first few weeks but then slowed down a lot once teams decided to double team him since he was the only weapon.
    pretty much explains his lack of TD to.
    week 5 was the last time he went over 100 yards receiving for instance.


    also when teams have to pick between jacoby and torrey then teams will pick torrey to role coverage to making it harder for him to score TDs.
    when teams have to pick between torrey and SSS then it becomes easier.

    your point does not consider the QB play in 2013 compared to 2014.
    nor the blocking of the oline or the running.
    heck your point does not consider the scheme and playbook change for instance.

    the only point you have made so far is that you tell people to not look at the boxscore yet yourself build your entire argument based on doing just that......
     

    the fact that you have to ask why there is a difference between 2013 and 2014 is telling quite frankly....
     

     

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  11. Posted · Report post

    1 hour ago, rmcjacket23 said:



    Torrey Smith: averaged 70 yards/game in 2013, career highs in receptions, yards, YPG, yards/catch, etc. Had 4 TDs

    The next year, Ravens career lows in receptions, yardage, YPG, yards/catch... has 11 TDs, almost three times as many. Why is that?

    Again, if you guys step away from the box scores, you'll get this.

    he was being interfered when trying try to catch the ball.

    lead the league  by a pretty large margin.
    was avg like 21.7 yards per penalty.

    had like 12 penalties for about 261 yards.

    also in 2014 he had 49 receptions which is the same as in 2012 when he also had 49 reception.
    quite curious how this is a career low in your eyes lol.
    he actually did that with less targets .....

     

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  14. Posted · Edited by Tru11 · Report post

    2 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

    The TD by Hogan (who blew by Elam) was actually a misalignment by Webb.  Weddle fell on the sword for biting on a fake, but the real problem was the Ravens had 2 corners (Wright and Webb) lined up on the outside left receiver.  That's Wright's responsibility, so Webb (who was moved to play SCB in the game due to ineffectiveness of Powers) should have been on the slot right (Hogan).  Elam attempted to compensate by lining up halfway between SCB and safety, but that did not work as we saw.  Harbaugh kept the matter internal by imply saying words to the effect "We don't need to go into it, but that wasn't Elam's fault."

    It's painfully obvious from the top view on Game Pass that Webb was the guy out of position.  

    Funny but sad story...Powers had played sooooo badly that game and against Tyler Boyd of Cincinnati that Webb replaced him at SCB.  We score the positioning in the secondary during the game to simplify work afterwards.  When Webb replaced Powers, I was so excited, I Tweeted the following about the move.  Surprising that it was Webb and not Elam that made the blunder.

    The #Ravens and Pees just made the change that may win tis game. Webb to SCB and Elam to S. Much better coverage of slot.

     

    not really though.
    it was cover 3 and weddle was responsible for the deep middle.

    young was lined up on mitchell with elam on hogan on 1 side with webb on edelman on the opposite site.
    Wright was deep on webb side while Weddle was line up as the deep safety over the middle about 14 yards from LOS.

    after the snap young dropped deep letting mitchell go over the middle while webb pressed edelman before passing him on to wright.
    Weddle bit on the fake and the rest is history.
     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1TP5qF5IN4

    at the 50 second mark you will get the best view of where everybody was standing and if you play it from there , you will clearly see young dropping into his deep zone letting his receiver loose and same goes for webb who after pressing edelman drop in his zone and look at brady.

    doubt it was a misalignment by webb as he was the only guy in press coverage lol

    if weddle does note bite on the fake then this play wont happen.

    -5

  15. Posted · Edited by Tru11 · Report post

    14 minutes ago, redrum52 said:

    Didn't realize that.  Good job, Ozzie.

    its after the 2019 season though.
    my bad on that.

    after 2018 we can cut him without saving or losing any cap.

    basicially a 3 year deal.
     

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  16. Posted · Edited by Tru11 · Report post

    BTW Williams cap hit for this season is only 6 mil which is not to bad.
    It will go up to 11 mil next season.

    After that season if he plays poorly he can be cut post june saving almost 10 mil in cap space with only 2.5 mil in dead money for the next seasons.

    1 season at 6 mil then 2 at 11 before he can become a cut casualty.

    that people actually cry about this is beyond me...

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  17. Posted · Report post

    1 minute ago, Purple_City39 said:

    As a follow up, I just looked for that play and can't find it anywhere on video.  So I'm not going to comment, or make guesses, as to how that play occured.

    Does it matter?

    Have you verified that all gregg sacks where him making a play all by himself and not something due to other players or a scheme specific blitz orso?

    i mean if teams had to pick between double teaming ngata or gregg then the choice would be easy.
    same with picking between guy/jernigan or williams for instance.

    or lets say you have a DC that blitzes from everywhere like Rex compared to a DC like pees who relies on 4 man rushes with the occasional blitzer.

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  18. Posted · Report post

    3 minutes ago, Purple_City39 said:

    It doesn't freaking matter as it doesn't change my point.  You just found something to grab onto so you could do your usual "swoop in and drop a one-liner" posts.

    I don't care the position, I don't care the task, if a player isn't on the field for passing downs, in a passing league, then that player isn't worth almost 11M a season nor are they the best player on the field.  Hell, I know you agree as you're not even arguing the point you jumped in on.  You decided to pick and choose another area so you can......I don't know, feel good about yourself?  Speaking of which:

    That's it?  You're going to compare 4 seasons of each of their careers are justify it with a few playoff games?  Amazing.  You really will reach huh?  But since you want to discuss:

    In Williams' career as a 3-4 NT (4 seasons), he has 5.5 total sacks including playoffs

    In Gregg's first 4 seasons as a 3-4 NT (to keep it even), he had 9.5 sacks.  For the record, I'm also including the entire 2008 season THAT GREGG DIDN'T PLAY DUE TO INJURY.  You can keep digging for ways to cherry pick things to prove your point since a fair comparison hurts your argument.  Three seasons of Greg almost doubles 4 seasons of Williams.  Four full seasons of Gregg actually does that.

    But to repeat the main point again, I'll list it in two easy points:

    1. In a passing league, if a player only plays 60% of the snaps, for any reason, that player is not worth almost 11M per season, in my opinion (and clearly many others), nor can they be considered the best player on the team

    Side note, when I get home I'm going to look up that sack.  I don't remember it so I want to see if Williams simply made a good play or if the QB ran into him trying to escape someone else (or he fell and go touched down).  If it's anything but the former it'll be hilarious to me

    Ofcourse it does not change your point.
    Much easier then admit you are wrong lol.
    Pretty sure why you have left it out in the first place praying nobody would notice.

    either way though.
    Gregg throught out his career avg about 2 sacks per season which is just 1 more then williams has been avg to this point.
    Gregg first 4 years in the league are worse then williams first 4 years.
    Gregg play off performance is horrible compared to Williams.
    Gregg had much more talented players around him on defense and had guys like rex calling the plays.(different schemes)
    Gregg also had a much much much worse offense to deal with which had him on the field for more plays.
    Gregg first 2 seasons as a NT came in 2002 and 2003 age 26 and 27, his next 2 seasons where in 2006 and 2007 at age 30 and 31.
    Williams turned 27 entering his 4th season.
    Gregg also got subbed out just like pretty much every big man playing NT.

    Highly doubt that 1 more sack per season with far lesser production in the play offs is a legit reason to say that gregg deserves 11 mil while williams does not.

    Think majority would certainly take play off performance over 1 extra sack per season.

    I know for a fact majority of the people are all about play off performances lol

     




     

     

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  19. Posted · Report post

    2 minutes ago, Purple_City39 said:

    You keep saying this as if it changes my original point.  The best player on your team simply can't be someone who's on the field 60% of the snaps, regardless of the reason.  Is this a specific enough statement??

    Good god man.  Just because I point out that he comes off the field in passing situations (as a reason I don't like him being paid what he was paid or why I don't think he can be the best player on the team) doesn't equal not knowing what a 3-4 NT does.  And for the record, as already pointed out, we've had two different players play the NT position in the Ravens 3-4 that didn't need to be pulled, but that's not part of the current point you jumped into.

    You dont know cause if you did you would drop this whole sack crap in regards to the 3-4 NT position.

    As for your Gregg argument:

    williams already has double the amount of sacks gregg has in the play offs while gregg at this point avg about 1 more sack per regular season.

    Gregg has played 10 play off games and has 0.5 sacks.
    Williams has played 2 play off games and has 1 sack already.

    Yet in your eyes Gregg is this amazing pass rusher from the NT position and worthy every penny what williams got but williams is over paid.

    heck in 10 play off games gregg has 3 tackles and 4 assist.
    Williams in 2 play off games has 5 tackles and 2 assist.

    Safe to say that your whole argument about gregg and sacks from the NT position becomes a load of crap once its time for the play offs.

     

     

     

     

     

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  20. Posted · Report post

    50 minutes ago, Purple_City39 said:

    Well, clearly the Ravens will too.  But when praising someone as being the best on the team, I remove anyone that has to be removed during obvious passing situations........in a passing league.

    if you cant stop the run , you wont be in obvious passing situations....

    also you should really try to figure out what 3-4 NT are supposed to do.

    its aint the same as 4-3 DT....

     

     

     

     

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  21. Posted · Report post

    17 hours ago, Purple_City39 said:

    ......for 60% of the plays?

    how many players on this team are in conversation of being the best at their position?

    Weddle, Yanda and Tucker are about it quite frankly.

    Id take someone who only plays 60% of the snaps but as 1 of the league best over someone who plays 100% of the snaps as one of the leagues worst in a heartbeat.....

    Quality over quantity...

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  23. Posted · Report post

    1 hour ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

    Another problem was with how easily our guys simply fell down in coverage. Not being pushed down, but actually just falling over trying to maintain coverage. Then there were the blown assignments again. Didn't see as much of that this year as the previous couple, but the were still very costly...especially the one that Elam got burned for and Weddle tried to chase down after he realized Elam blew it.

    weddle blew that one though.

     

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